What Happens to Real Estate In a Recession?

Impact of a Recession on Real Estate

Mid-Day Market News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, October 15, 2008
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At midday investors continued to hold their breath, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 317.24 to 8993.75. A government report released this morning showed that retail sales had dropped by 1.2 percent, which was twice as much as most analysts had been expecting. The report does not bode well for the upcoming holiday season, where many Americans are seen as tightening their belts.

JP Morgan Chase’s profit dropped 84 percent to $527 million from the $3.4 billion in the year ago third quarter. “It’s an unpleasant situation, and I don’t want to underplay it. It’s unpleasant for the country,” said CEO Jamie Dimon. “I hope that the financial crisis, with the powerful moves made by governments around the world, will start to ease.”

In other banking news, Wells Fargo fared much better than JP Morgan Chase. Its third quarter profit fell 25% to 1.64 billion from $2.17 billion in the year ago period. The company was successful in breaking up the proposed Citigroup-Wachovia merger and now Wells plans on merging with Wachovia. Citigroup has indicated that it will not stop the deal but does plan on extracting its pound of flesh in court for damages.

Now on to our real estate investing news arena…

Recession, Depression, Inflation, Deflation…What’s it all About and How Does it Impact Real Estate?

Ronald Regan once stated “A recession is when a neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours.” If we were to apply the same logic to the real estate market, then the nation has been in the midst of a recession for some time as people have been steadily losing (or walking away from) their homes. In fact, there is a great deal of recent debate on whether the nation is already in a recession and heading for a depression or whether the easy money economics of the Federal Reserve will prevent a depression at the risk of creating further inflation…or perhaps world-wide deleveraging will actually result in massive deflation instead. Let’s take a few moments to examine real estate in each of the above scenarios’…

Recession. Unlike employment figures (or stocks), real estate doesn’t act the same as jobs during a recession. When a worker loses a job the position may be completely eliminated (or the stock completely wiped out). When someone loses a house it reverts back to the prior owner, heirs, bank or local government. Short sale buyers realize the inherent value in the home or property and act like a middle man to obtain a percentage of that value for themselves in the form of resale, rentals or retained equity.

Depression. During a depression the entire economy may slow down so much that little to nothing is being produced. Job loss often runs rampant as prices drop below the cost of production. Unemployment drives labor costs down – creating a downward spiral as unemployed workers are unable to afford more than the basic necessities. Again, jobs and stocks alike may all but disappear during a depression but a house remains standing. Housing is a basic necessity and tends to take top priority even during the most critical economic crisis.

Inflation. Inflation tends to drive the price of all commodities and assets higher as the replacement cost rises; real estate is no exception. With the Federal Reserve practically printing money out of thin air, the ability to own or control physical assets with a fixed rate of interest is often the best way to preserve wealth during periods of escalating inflation. On the other hand, the increased cost of production and labor often leads to more work for less pay among employees.

Deflation. Falling assets prices and world-wide deleveraging tend to drive down the price of commodities and assets including real estate. However, short sale buyers are often purchasing property at or near the fully depreciated value. Even those who experience further price drops still have other options available to bridge the gap until the market recovers; rentals, owner financing and factoring may each help raise needed capital or reduce individual debt repayments until the property has regained full value.

What Happens to Real Estate In a Recession?

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