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New Home Sales Drop
On the heels of the S&P/Case-Shiller report yesterday, the Commerce Department said sales fell 7.6 percent to a 342,000 unit annual rate from an upwardly revised 370,000 units in November. It was the second straight month that new home sales declined. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new home sales to increase to a 370,000 unit annual pace from November’s previously reported 355,000 units. New home sales for the whole of 2009 fell 22.9 percent to a record low 374,000 units, but despite the slump in sales there were a few bright spots in today’s report. The median sale price for a new home rose 5.2 percent last month from November to $221,300, the highest in seven months and the biggest rise since April 2009. Compared to December 2008, the median sale price fell 3.6 percent. The number of new homes on the market last month dropped 1.7 percent to 231,000 units, the lowest level since April 1971. However, December’s weak sales pace left the supply of homes available for sale at 8.1 months’ worth, the highest since June 2009, from 7.6 months in November.
BOA signs up on “piggyback mortgage” plan
As part of its $75 billion foreclosure-prevention program the Obama administration has been offering lenders who made so-called “piggyback” mortgages incentives to lower payments or eliminate the loans entirely. Second loans allowed consumers to make a little or no down payment and they were all the rage while property values were on the rise. Now, however, they are an obstacle to alleviating the housing crisis. That’s because piggyback lenders — fearing they won’t be repaid — can veto a borrower’s efforts to modify their primary mortgage. The trouble with Obama’s offer is that no one was interested until Tuesday, when Bank of America (BOA) signed up. If more lenders follow Bank of America it could clear the way for more mortgage companies to cut borrowers’ principal balances on their primary loans, but administration officials appear wary of subsidizing such reductions with taxpayer money, because it could spark yet another backlash from critics who claim it’s unfair to people who are still paying their mortgages on time and a bailout for banks that made reckless loans. But many experts say dramatic changes are needed. “Unless you modify principal, there is absolutely no hope of restructuring mortgages on a mass scale to keep people in their homes,” Daniel Alpert, managing director of the New York investment bank Westwood Capital LLC said earlier this month. “Eventually their hand will be forced.”
Stimulus $75 billion more expensive than first believed
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, passed in February 2009, was initially believed to have a price tag of $787 billion. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said the Recovery Act’s effects on government spending and revenues have closely followed its initial estimate for 2009 and 2010, but the addition of skyrocketing unemployment compensation costs has hiked its forecast Tuesday for how much the stimulus bill will add to the nation’s deficit, raising its estimate by $75 billion to $862 billion. In the CBO’s initial estimate for the Recovery Act, the unemployment rate was expected to cap at 9%, but the rate rose above 9% in May and soared above 10% in October. The vast majority of the increased deficit impact is linked to anticipated spending in 2011 to 2019. Nearly half of the additional $75 billion comes from more spending on food stamp benefits than originally anticipated. CBO said in its February 2009 estimate that the government would spend $20 billion on increased food stamp benefits through 2019, but it now believes that amount will be closer to $54 billion. It now appears to the Budget Office that stimulus will have a larger impact on the deficit in the years to come based on changing economic factors since the bill was signed into law 11 months ago. What a surprise.
Mortgage Applications Decrease
U.S. mortgage applications fell for the first time in four weeks, reflecting a dramatic drop in demand for home refinancing loans, data from an industry group showed today. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index for the week ending January 22, 2010 decreased 10.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and, on an unadjusted basis, decreased 10.1 percent compared with the previous week and decreased 19.8 percent compared with the same week one year earlier. The Refinance Index decreased 15.1 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 4.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 2.6 percent. The four week moving average is up 1.3 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 2.8 percent for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 67.6 percent of total applications from 71.7 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 4.7 percent from 4.1 percent of total applications from the previous week. “Refinance activity fell substantially last week,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Although rates remain low, there appears to be a smaller pool of borrowers who are willing and able to refinance at today’s rates.”
SOTU tonight
Administration officials say President Obama intends to use today’s State of the Union address to put a new focus on his jobs agenda as he tries to regain the confidence of a disheartened electorate. He will make small-business hiring the centerpiece of that message, pressing Congress to act on a slate of tax cuts that have languished for months. Mr. Obama will call for eliminating capital-gains taxes on investments in small businesses. He will redouble efforts to give small employers a tax credit for new hires. And he will call for extending bigger tax breaks to those that purchase new facilities and equipment. Many of the proposals date back to his campaign but have drawn little notice in a Congress preoccupied with other matters, such as overhauling health care.
According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, Americans think the president has paid too much attention to health care and not enough to the economy. Ya think? The speech will also promise a list of other initiatives for 2010. Mr. Obama will announce a salary freeze for senior White House officials and eliminate bonuses for all political appointees. According to the poll, business leaders want to see more measures to spur trade, infrastructure development and lending to small and midsize businesses. In addition, the tax credits to be promoted by the president Wednesday have been too long in the pipeline, they say. Many of the small-business proposals have been rejected by Congress already. The House passed a job-creation package that didn’t mention Mr. Obama’s proposed hiring tax credit. The number of Americans who feel that the country is headed in the wrong direction has risen to 58%, the highest number since before Mr. Obama’s inauguration. Moreover, Mr. Obama’s new overall approval rating of 50% might look better than recent polls, but given the survey’s margin of error, the new rating is statistically similar to his 47% approval in December. Forty-four percent say they disapprove of the job he is doing.
How on to our real estate investing educational section…
Why People Fail as Short Sale or REO Investors
It’s not that difficult to succeed at short sales but despite a proven process and track record of success, there are always a few people that will fail. Fortunately, it’s simple enough to identify these common traits and learn to replace negative thinking with optimistic outcomes.
Whiners – Chances are if you have been in any type of small business endeavor or investment fund, you have met the perpetual whiner. You know the type; they complain that life is unfair, the other guy got the breaks, someone was born with a silver spoon so has all the advantage…the list is endless. Behind the whining is the belief that fate is more important than preparation but fortunately, the facts don’t support this premise. Planning, preparation and a proven process have repeatedly demonstrated the ability to generate above average returns for short sale investors from every walk of life. Sit in on a short sale seminar to find out how others have stopped whining and started winning at short sales.
Dreamers – Are you a day-dream believer? If so, it’s time to stop dreaming and start doing. The majority of dreamers never actual get around to investing in anything…they are too busy thinking up good ideas and grand plans. Dreamers are great at planning but fall short when it comes to actually putting anything into action unless it involves the blood, sweat and tears of others. Rather than investing in short sales with a dreamer, fund your own short sale empire where you can reap the reward that come from executing a solid short sales strategy.
Worriers – Worriers are a bit different; they tend to become very good short sale investors with rock solid returns. So, what is the problem? They stress and fret about every detail of the short sale transaction from start to finish. The constant levels of high anxiety take the satisfaction out of even the most profitable short sale deal leaving them unlikely to repeat the process at a later date. Worriers simply need to relax by understanding how to reduce the risk and put redundant protections in place that provide the additional layer of reassurance they need to sleep well at night.
Braggards – Every family has that one person who always attempts to one-up everyone else. It’s the same with short sale investments. Their house is always bigger, brighter, more profitable or simply better than yours. The funny thing about braggards is how difficult it can be to separate fact from fiction; if the housing crisis has taught us anything, it is simply that appearances are not always what they seem. Unfortunately, bragging has its own risk versus reward…in their quest to “best” everyone else, braggards are prone to overpay for a property or make otherwise unprofitable purchases. Don’t get caught up in an ego-trip at the expense of your short sale investment portfolio – simply stick to what works rather than wasting time trying to impress.
See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin
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About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.
* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
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