Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin February 28, 2012
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NAR – pending home sales up
Pending home sales are on an upward trend, which has been uneven but meaningful since reaching a cyclical low last April, and are well above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 2.0% to 97.0 in January from a downwardly revised 95.1 in December and is 8.0% higher than January 2011 when it was 89.8. The data reflects contracts but not closings. The January index is the highest since April 2010 when it reached 111.3 as buyers were rushing to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit. The PHSI in the Northeast rose 7.6% to 78.2 in January and is 9.8% above a year ago. In the Midwest the index declined 3.8% to 88.1 but is 10.8% higher than January 2011. Pending home sales in the South increased 7.7% to an index of 109.1 in January and are 10.5% above a year ago. In the West the index fell 4.4% in January to 101.9 but is 0.7% above January 2011.
Why gas prices vary across the country
The national average for regular gasoline rose to $3.70 Friday, up 14 cents in the past week – and only about 40 cents shy of the all-time record high of $4.11 a gallon reached in July 2008. While many are feeling the pain at the pump, Americans are seeing widely divergent prices depending on where they live. Why are drivers in Fort Collins, Colorado paying a little over $3, while those in Santa Barbara, California are seeing gas prices at $4.33 a gallon? Colorado, Montana, Utah and Wyoming have the cheapest pump prices in the country, at about $3.21 a gallon or less on average, while retail gasoline prices are near $4.30 a gallon in California and are over $4 in some parts of New York. The answer lies in the “chaos” in crude oil prices around the nation, says OPIS energy analyst Tom Kloza. “There’s never been more diversity in crude oil prices. There’s never been more diversity in gasoline prices.” The divergence in pump prices comes from the wildly differing wholesale prices for gasoline. The wholesale price of gasoline in the Rocky Mountains and Midwest is about 20 to 40 cents cheaper than on the East Coast, for example.
The price of the refined fuel reflects regional supply issues that face refiners in various parts of the country, based on the type of oil they process. Crude oil in some landlocked areas in the Midwest — such as North Dakota, where there has been a tremendous supply surge recently — reached about $95-$96 a barrel Friday. For refineries that use sour crude in the Midwest, Western Canadian Select grade of crude, a heavy grade, the price is closer to $91 a barrel. Yet, on the East Coast, refining capacity, and as a result gasoline supply, has been drastically reduced in the past few months. Two refiners outside of Philadelphia, which account for 20% of the gasoline in the northeast have shut down. Overall US and European refinery shutdowns have taken about 2.6 million barrels of gasoline supply off the market since 2009, says Houston-based energy analyst Andy Lipow.
East Coast refiners import most of crude oil from Europe and West Africa. North Sea Brent crude prices rose have risen above $125 a barrel. Light Louisiana sweet crude prices on the Gulf Coast reached $130 a barrel on Friday, due to tight supplies of European and West African crude blends. (RBOB gasoline futures traded at the CME Group’s New York Mercantile Exchange – in close proximity to East Coast refiners and delivery terminals – also more closely reflects the Brent crude price. March RBOB gasoline futures rose 1% Friday to settle at a 2012 high of $3.15 a gallon.) Wholesale oil and gasoline prices have been rising sharply all over the country in the past few days, Kloza says. “At this rate, it’s a foregone conclusion retail prices will rise another 5 to 15 cents a gallon this week.” Retail gasoline prices have already spiked 5 cents since Friday. At this rate, if the surge in gasoline prices next month mirrors the month of February, record pump prices may be in store even before the summer driving season gets underway.
Olick – 2500 foreclosures up for bulk sale
“Barely six hours after billionaire investor Warren Buffett said that if he could he’d like to buy ‘a couple of hundred thousand single family homes’, the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac put about 2500 of theirs up for sale. It is the next step in the government’s REO (bank-owned) to rent program; the plan, announced earlier this month, is designed to help Fannie and Freddie unload thousands of foreclosed properties weighing on their books. Fannie Mae alone owns more than 100,000 repossessed properties. ‘This is another important milestone in our initiative designed to reduce taxpayer losses, stabilize neighborhoods and home values, shift to more private management of properties, and reduce the supply of REO properties in the marketplace,’ said FHFA acting director Edward DeMarco in a press release.
While the prequalification phase began several weeks ago, investors can now move to the next phase, where, if accepted by proving financial capacity and experience, they can get access to the properties for sale. The bulk of the properties are in the most distressed markets, such as Florida, parts of California, Phoenix, AZ, and Las Vegas, NV. Atlanta, GA, however, has the highest number in the mix, 572 properties making up 23% of the total up for sale. Atlanta housing was hit hard by the recession and high job losses. Just 17% of the properties are vacant, so investors would largely be getting assets with existing cash flow. As these first properties hit the market, there is no shortage of investors ready to scoop them up. Rental demand is still surging, and rents continue to rise, despite record high affordability and record low mortgage rates. Nearly 47% of all closings in January were of distressed properties, according to a new survey from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance, and investors now make up nearly a quarter of all buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors.
As banks start to ramp up the foreclosure process again, after a year of delays following the ‘robo-signing’ scandal, more properties will be repossessed and put up for sale; investors are flocking to the deals, largely using all cash, as they get into increasingly competitive situations. Even owner-occupants (non-investors) are turning more to cash, as credit is still tight. ‘Despite near record low mortgage rates, homebuyers are finding it very advantageous in the current housing market to shop with cash. And low returns on money deposited in banks as well as mortgage approval hassles also are pushing homebuyers to consider all cash transactions,’ according to Campbell/IMF. ‘Between last October and January, the use of cash by current homeowners purchasing a new principal residence surged from 30.8% to 34.1%. Critics of the bulk REO to rent program say that giving large investors with hoards of cash bulk deals squeezes out smaller investors who might do more improvements to the properties and then turn around and sell them at higher prices, thereby increasing overall home values. Investors in the FHFA program are required to hold the properties and rent them for ‘a specified number of years,’ according to the agency’s initial announcement.”
S&P Greece downgrade may be short
Standard & Poor’s downgrading of Greece’s long-term ratings to ‘selective default’ could well be short but there is a risk Athens falls back into default later, S&P analyst Moritz Kraemer said today. S&P cut Greece’s rating on Monday, the second ratings agency to proceed with a widely expected downgrade after Athens announced a bond swap plan to lighten its debt burden. “It’s a distinct possibility that this will be a short default which will be cured,” Kraemer told Reuters Insider television. “The more interesting question is not when it will be cured but whether it will be the last one.” “I think the rating coming out of default of the Hellenic Republic will give some indication of what the likelihood of another restructuring down the road would be.” When assessing what rating to give Greece in the future, S&P would look at the political environment, the growth outlook and the remaining debt stock. “We think that on all three fronts there are huge question marks,” said Kraemer.
DSNews – debt and delinquency on the decline
Real estate-related debts are on the decline, as are overall delinquencies, according to a quarterly report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Debt maintained through mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOC) declined $146 billion during the fourth quarter of last year. Mortgages made up a majority of the decline – $134 billion – while HELOCs made up the remaining $12 billion. Mortgage debt is now 11% below its peak, while HELOC debt is now 11.7% below its peak. Also in the fourth quarter, the delinquency rate on consumer debt was reduced from 10% to 9.8%. About $1.12 trillion of the total $11.53 trillion in consumer debt was delinquent. About $824 billion in debt was seriously delinquent (90 or more days past due). While overall delinquency declined, about 2.2% of mortgage loans became delinquent in the last quarter of the year.
Foreclosures increased 9.5% over the quarter as 289,000 homes received foreclosure filings. However, the foreclosure rate is still 35.3% below the level recorded in the fourth quarter of 2010. Also, despite the rise in foreclosure filings, the rate of loans that became seriously delinquent declined, corresponding with a rising cure rate, which reached 27.2% at the end of last year. “Overall it appears that delinquency rates are stabilizing at levels that remain significantly higher than pre-crisis levels,” said Andrew Haughwout, VP and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
FHA to raise premiums
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will raise mortgage insurance premiums this April in order to repair the health of its emergency fund. The FHA upfront mortgage insurance premium will increase to 1.75% from 1% of the base home loan amount. This will apply regardless of the term or loan-to-value ratio beginning in April. The annual mortgage insurance premium will increase by 10 basis points for loans under the $625,500 limit beginning April 1 and by 35 bps for home loans above that amount starting in June, the FHA said Monday. Authority for these raises come under the payroll tax cut extension agreed to last fall. The FHA said the changes will boost the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund by $1 billion. The UFMIP can still be financed into the mortgage. The increase to the upfront premium will cost new borrowers roughly $5 more per month. Reverse mortgages and borrowers in special loan programs would be exempt from the changes, according to the FHA.
Last week at the Mortgage Bankers Association servicing conference in Orlando, FHA Commissioner Carol Galante said there would be upcoming insurance premium changes for the streamline refinance program. An FHA spokesman said these changes would be included in a letter to lenders due soon. The MMI fund slipped below the Congressionally mandated 2% threshold in 2008, and in slipped to 0.2% last year. According to an analysis of President Obama’s budget, the fund could have declined further in 2013 and possibly needed a bailout from the Treasury Department. Nearly $1 billion in revenue from settlements with mortgage servicers announced in the last few weeks will also keep the fund from needing assistance, according to FHA. “After careful analysis of the market and the health of the MMI fund, we have determined that it is appropriate to increase mortgage insurance premiums in order to help protect our capital reserves and to continue encouraging the return of private capital to the housing market,” Galante said. ”These modest increases are one of several measures we are taking towards meeting the Congressionally mandated 2% reserve threshold, while allowing FHA to remain a valuable option for low- to moderate-income borrowers.”
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Chris McLaughlin
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About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.
* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!
* In 2011, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 3,336 sides for a closed sales volume of
$430,902,643!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
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