Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin March 6, 2012
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January on a high for repeat foreclosures
Repeat foreclosures hit an all-time high in January, representing 47% of all starts. Foreclosure starts rose in January suggesting the pipeline is starting to move, according to the latest mortgage monitor report from Lender Processing Services. LPS said foreclosure starts in the first month of 2012 rose 28% from December but fell 11.5% from a year earlier. The data firm says 203,458 starts were recorded in January, compared to 230,023 in January 2011. LPS sees positive changes in the foreclosure pipeline, but says it’s too soon to call it a trend. When looking at new problem loans, the ratio of troubled mortgages is relatively low nationally but the states with the most seriously delinquent home loans in January included Nevada, Florida, Mississippi, Arizona and Georgia. Nationwide more than 40% of loans in foreclosure are more than two years past due. LPS estimates that refinance opportunities under the new HARP 2.0 are possible for 27.6 million borrowers, but only 6.8 million are probable.
Big Names Rally to Romney
Leading members of the Congress and influential conservatives are showing signs of rallying around Mitt Romney in the presidential race signaling that a coast-to-coast burst of voting on Super Tuesday should mark a moment to start concentrating on defeating President Obama. The endorsements come as the Romney campaign is pressing elected officials and activists in the 10 states that are voting Tuesday and those that do so in the following weeks to help nudge the contest toward a conclusion. A methodical effort is under way among governors, donors and top Republicans to make the case that a long nominating fight could weaken the party’s chances to win the White House, maintain control of the House and gain a majority in the Senate. It is a significant moment for Mr. Romney, but also a critical one for Rick Santorum, who is scrapping for delegates but also trying to win the popular vote in Ohio to revive doubts about Mr. Romney’s appeal among conservative and working-class voters. Newt Gingrich is also fighting to stay in the race, staking the future of his candidacy on a victory in Georgia. Here in Ohio, where voters have developed a well-earned reputation as a bellwether that captures national political sentiments, the primary will help determine the length of the presidential race and the direction of the Republican Party. The state could also provide one of the best opportunities for Mr. Santorum to slow Mr. Romney’s march to the nomination.
Olick: Buying Foreclosures – One Investor’s Key to Success
With potentially millions of foreclosed, bank-owned homes coming to the housing market over the next few years, cash-heavy investors are poised to profit, especially when buying in bulk. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, recently announced a pilot property sale program of 2500 foreclosures now on the books of Fannie Mae. Phoenix investor Geoffrey Jacobs is hoping to get in on it. “The ability to buy in bulk adds to our ability to grow our portfolio in a meaningful way in a short period of time,” says Jacobs, principal at Empire Group, which has already bought over 1000 Phoenix-area homes in the past two and a half years. “When you look at how well these properties lease and the type of rental yields, it’s a compelling investment.” When Empire Group first began buying foreclosures in 2009, it farmed out the property management to smaller companies and individuals. Jacobs quickly learned that method was costing precious profit. Just twenty percent of the nation’s 8.7 million single family rental properties are managed by professionals, according to Steve Cook of Real Estate Economy Watch. Individual owner/investors do the bulk of the rest. Owners, according to Cook, may be spending too much time and money on maintenance. Jacobs’ group, however, is very profitable, with 8-9 percent annual returns on his properties. His renters stay, he says, with a 65-70 percent re-up rate. He credits good management and hopes, someday, that his long-term renters will become buyers. Unfortunately, that may take a while, as so many of them need to rebuild their credit. Empire Group has already passed the first round of pre-qualification for the FHFA REO to Rent program and is hoping to clear the second round and start bidding on bulk properties in the next few weeks.
Factory orders fall, as economy staggers once again
New orders for U.S. factory goods dropped in January by the most in over a year as businesses cut orders. The Commerce Department said on Monday orders for manufactured goods fell 1 percent, a less steep decline than the 1.5 percent drop expected by private forecasters in a Reuters poll. Still, it was the biggest decline since October 2010. Many economists think the expiration of some tax breaks on capital spending at the end of 2011 led businesses to bring forward investments. Orders for non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft fell 3.9 percent in January. This is a closely watched category because it is taken as a sign of businesses’ future spending plans. Shipments for this category declined 3 percent. Business spending and manufacturing have been drivers of the recovery since the 2007-2009 recession.
Home prices fall by smallest margin: Clear Capital
National home prices fell by the smallest margin in 10 months in light of REO saturation increases, a trend that Clear Capital calls “unusual and encouraging.” Prices declined 1.9% year-over-year, according to the firm’s Home Data Index market report. Short-term prices remained stable, falling only 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, highlighting short-term stability over the last few months. All regions showed improvements in yearly and quarterly price drops, while three out of four saw upticks in real estate-owned properties for sale. Clear Capital found that the nation’s top 15 performing metropolitan statistical areas were resilient against higher REO saturation, with six of them showing quarterly price appreciation greater than 2%. Alex Villacorta, Clear Capital’s director of research and analytics, said markets such as Atlanta and Tucson, Ariz., hit hard by the foreclosure epidemic, are filled to the brim with REO properties for sale and will see a falloff in 2013 — if not before.
Ds News: Consumer Credit Points to End of Housing Downturn
Consumer credit data suggests spending will increase and the housing market will begin to emerge from its slump this year, according to Equifax and Moody’s Analytics. Both companies note that as key market data align with pre-recession totals, consumers should anticipate steady economic growth for major credit sectors. Looking across the full spectrum of consumer credit, Equifax and Moody’s found that delinquency rates for auto, bankcard, and consumer finance are back to pre-recession levels. These sectors are expected to contribute to the U.S. economy’s nascent recovery. The home mortgage lending sector continues to see the highest percentage of delinquencies, the companies’ report notes, even with outstanding mortgage balances (including first liens and home equity lines and loans) having declined by $1 trillion since 2008 and continuing to drop. The companies also note that tighter lending guidelines are reflected in loans made to the prime risk segment. Consumers that fit the bill of a prime risk now account for more than 80 percent of all new mortgage originations.
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Chris McLaughlin
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About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.
* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!
* In 2011, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 3,336 sides for a closed sales volume of
$430,902,643!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
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