Mid-Day Market News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, December 12, 2008
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html
——
Tired of being sick and tired of this economy and all the negative news that goes along with it? We have an amazing recession proof investing strategy that we’ll reveal to you on our webinar that we’re hosting tomorrow, yes SATURDAY at 2 PM ET LIVE. This is your opportunity to learn about RECESSION PROOF INVESTING. We’re going to share with you TRUE STORIES of investors who made over $80,000 and over $115,000 using the methods we’re teaching! Go here now, there are just 18 spots left:
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/788305762
——
The good news keeps coming for mortgage rates: they hit a 4 year low at 5.47% and then dropped further to 5.33% yesterday, with no points or origination fees. The new rates have encouraged fence sitters to jump off and begin making purchases, and loan officers have reported a bounce in mortgage applications as well.
Bank of America announced late yesterday that it would be giving pink slips to over 35,000 employees as it finalizes its merger with Merrill Lynch. The reduction will account for approximately 10% of the combined companies’ total employee base. The announcement comes on the heels of a similar one from Citigroup, which announced last month that it would eliminate 52,000 jobs, or about 15% of its total workforce.
And in a sign of the greedy times on Wall Street, get this: the former Chairman of the Nadaq Stock Market was arrested for what investigators have described as a “stunning fraud that appears to be of epic proportions.” The fraud is estimated to be a “50 billion Ponzi scheme,” where the assets that Mr. Madoff would tell his investors about actually didn’t even exist. I wonder whether Madoff will ask the Treasury for a bailout? Think about it … banks lied about the value of their mortgage bank securities and induced people into loans they weren’t suited for, so why given them money and not Madoff? Ok, I’m just kidding but you get the point!
And in the latest on the Big 3 Bailout, it appears that Congress hit a snag and can’t come to agreement … so the Bush Administration is reversing course and now suggests that the money might be able to come from the $700 billion TARP. “Under normal economic conditions we would prefer that markets determine the ultimate state of private firms,” White House press secretary Dana Perino stated. “However, given the current weakened state of the US economy, we will consider other options if necessary, including use of the TARP program to prevent a collapse of troubled auto makers.”
Now, on to our topic of the day: Recession, Depression, Inflation, Deflation…What’s it all About and How Does it Impact Real Estate?
Ronald Regan once stated “A recession is when a neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours. If we were to apply the same logic to the real estate market, then the nation has been in the midst of a recession for some time as people have been steadily losing (or walking away from) their homes. In fact, there is a great deal of recent debate on whether the nation is already in a recession and heading for a depression or whether the easy money economics of the Federal Reserve will prevent a depression at the risk of creating further inflation…or perhaps world-wide deleveraging will actually result in massive deflation instead. Let’s take a few moments to examine real estate in each of the above scenarios’…
Recession. Unlike employment figures (or stocks), real estate doesn’t act the same as jobs during a recession. When a worker loses a job the position may be completely eliminated (or the stock completely wiped out). When someone loses a house it reverts back to the prior owner, heirs, bank or local government. Short sale buyers realize the inherent value in the home or property and act like a middle man to obtain a percentage of that value for themselves in the form of resale, rentals or retained equity.
Depression. During a depression the entire economy may slow down so much that little to nothing is being produced. Job loss often runs rampant as prices drop below the cost of production. Unemployment drives labor costs down – creating a downward spiral as unemployed workers are unable to afford more than the basic necessities. Again, jobs and stocks alike may all but disappear during a depression but a house remains standing. Housing is a basic necessity and tends to take top priority even during the most critical economic crisis.
Inflation. Inflation tends to drive the price of all commodities and assets higher as the replacement cost rises; real estate is no exception. With the Federal Reserve practically printing money out of thin air, the ability to own or control physical assets with a fixed rate of interest is often the best way to preserve wealth during periods of escalating inflation. On the other hand, the increased cost of production and labor often leads to more work for less pay among employees.
Deflation. Falling assets prices and world-wide deleveraging tend to drive down the price of commodities and assets including real estate. However, short sale buyers are often purchasing property at or near the fully depreciated value. Even those who experience further price drops still have other options available to bridge the gap until the market recovers; rentals, owner financing and factoring may each help raise needed capital or reduce individual debt repayments until the property has regained full value.
More on Monday!
See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog
P.S.:
Are you ready to crack the law of the lid? Are you ready to get serious about your business and wealth heading into 2009? If so, you have to go now and watch Nathan’s youtube video! Leave some comments on it …this is AMAZING to watch, and all TRUE:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQu75ne01Vg
After you’ve watched it go here and learn how to make serious money in a recession:
http://www.webinarwizards.com/custom/index.cfm?id=169716
P.P.S.:
If you missed the amazing Web2.0 webinar, the replay is available right here:
