Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, July 28, 2009

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

* Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
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Housing market turnaround is critical to economic recovery

According to the latest monthly reading of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index, home prices are showing signs of stability. Analysts say that this is encouraging, given that home values drive consumer confidence. “The key to everything is single-family housing because that’s where consumption comes from,” said Sam Zell, founder and chairman of Equity Group Investments. “If people don’t have confidence in their biggest asset, they won’t have the confidence to spend.” Analysts expect the extent of housing recovery to be different across the country.

For example, in cities such as Miami, where is there is a significant supply overhang, housing recovery will take longer, than in other areas. Zell is pessimistic about the near-term prospects for commercial real estate market. “The commercial real estate sector is definitely under water,” he said. Zell is critical of government programs introduced to revive the economy and believes that stimulus spending is likely to lead to higher taxes. “A lot of these wonderful, massive programs that they’re currently considering are interesting, and maybe at the top of the market we could afford to do them,” said Zell. “To do them at this stage of the game I think is very scary.”

Government sets targets for loan modification

The Obama administration wishes to see at least 500,000 loan modifications by November 1 of this year; currently about 200,000 loan modifications are in process. Administration officials held discussions this week with 25 loan servicers participating in the modification program and asked them to do expedite the program. Borrowers have been complaining about administrative delays in processing their loan modification application. “[T]oo many homeowners are at risk of foreclosure right now,” Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said in a statement after the meeting. “Today’s meeting was an opportunity to identify ways to accelerate the program and bring relief faster.” President Obama has acknowledged that the modification program, which was announced in February this year, has so far not been effective. “Our mortgage program has actually helped to modify mortgages for a lot of our people, but it hasn’t been keeping pace with all the foreclosures that are taking place,” Obama said last month.

Servicers who participated in the meeting made a number of suggestions on streamlining the paperwork and creating a website to enable borrowers to make applications online. Sanjiv Das, chief executive of CitiMortgage, said: “Today’s meeting was an important step toward the administration’s and our shared objective of improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the Make Home Affordable mortgage modification program.”

Mortgage-backed bonds worth $3 billion in TALF pipeline

The Obama administration introduced the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) last March in order to revive asset-backed securities market. The next TALF window which will open in September this year is likely to see deals worth $3 billion involving Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS). More than a dozen real estate investment trusts are expected to participate. The Federal Reserve is likely to lend CMBS buyers up to 85% of the purchase price for TALF securities.

“If the first deals are successful, we think we can get $10 to $25 billion done in the next six months,” said Kenneth Rosen, who manages a hedge fund. The program accepts securities that have the highest rating, and borrowings under the program must be repaid within 5 years. Analysts are divided on the extent to which the program will revive the CMBS market which collapsed in 2008 due to credit crisis. David Twardock, president of Prudential Mortgage Capital, said TALF will help revive the CMBS market “in a very modest way.” TALF is set to expire by the end of 2009 and some analysts are seeking an extension of the program.

Consumer confidence drops for the second straight month

According to The Conference Board, its confidence index dropped to a reading of 46.6 in July, a second consecutive decline, following a reading of 49.3 in June. The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions dropped to 23.4 from 25 the prior month. The gauge of expectations for the next six months declined to 62 from 65.5. The drop in consumer sentiment reflects the unemployment situation. “Folks are still concerned about their jobs,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities. The survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households.

About 46% of survey respondents said that the business conditions are “bad,” and 48.1% said jobs are “hard to get.” Just about 18% said they expect an improvement in business conditions over the next 6 months. Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said: “Consumers are pessimistic about their income expectations, which does not bode well for spending in the months ahead.” Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the economy and any decline in consumer confidence would adversely impact economic recovery.

Orders for durable goods rise in June

According to data from the Commerce Department, orders for durable goods excluding transportation equipment, orders for goods meant to last several years rose 1.1% in June, the most in four months. Total orders for durable goods fell 2.5% in June for the first time in 3 months. This reflects shutdowns by auto-plants in companies such as General Motors and Chrysler. “Orders have stabilized,” said Harm Bandholz, an economist at UniCredit Global Research in New York. “This fits in with the bottoming in the economy. We will see a rebound in production in the second half” of 2009.

Inventory fell at an $87 billion annual rate in the first quarter. The drop in inventory is likely to set the stage for economic recovery. The economy was projected to decline by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2009. “The pace of decline appears to have slowed significantly, and final demand and production have shown tentative signs of stabilization,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress last week. Caterpillar, which is among large manufacturing companies, posted second quarter results which exceeded analyst expectations. “We are seeing signs of stabilization that we hope will set the foundation for an eventual recovery,” said Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens.

Now on to our real estate investor education section…

GeoDemographics 101 for Short Sales Success

Never heard of geodemographics? Don’t worry, you probably aren’t alone. However, despite the rather convoluted label, the essential information contained in this incredibly powerful tool is able to take your short sale investments to the next level. Think of it like direct marketing on steroids. Geodemograpics allow you to locate your target population with near surgical precision then tailor a custom-made marketing message designed to elicit top results. Before we get into the tools of the trade on how to get started using geodemographics, it’s important to understand a few facts:

1. Locating the right clients is the first step in success. Negotiation, sales and closing the deal all come later but will never matter as much as the ability to locate the “hot targets” before the competition.
2. There are over 250,000 neighborhoods in this nation with an average of approx 280 households per neighborhood. Locating your niche allows you to concentrate a message that appeals to your target market with the highest possible “conversion” rate.
3. Geo = location + Demographics = Population Data. Learn how to use data about the given population of each neighborhood in order to design and refine your message.

So, what are the basic steps to performing geodemographic research? It’s actually fairly simple once you know how. Begin by estimating the size and composition of your target area. Age, gender, marital status and life-status (retired, single, family etc) all provide important insight into what is important to them and what they will likely be searching for in terms of real estate. Excellent sources of neighborhood data are available for free at www.census.gov or by calling your local HUD office. Commercial resources include www.claritas.com, www.maponics.com or http://bp.mlsli.com/neighborhood.htm.

Next, design and refine a message created specifically for your target market. It should be engaging and effective. Start with several versions to determine which garner the most response – once you find out what works, stick with it!

Property designed geodemographic research can tell you all about your target audience including where to meet them, where they most often eat out (McD’s or true gourmet), where they shop and even other influential networking opportunities with service providers such as accountants or tire shops. Imagine how nice it would be to grab the best clients simply by printing up placemats for a local diner or handing out business cards at a local dry cleaner. Believe it or not, these were exactly the types of networking and marketing activities that tend to yield the best results when combined with highly targeted and effective data.

Finally, use a feedback loop to further refine and clarify both needs and opportunities as you collect more data. Remember, whether you sign or not, all information is important. Eventually you will develop a clear picture of the personality profile of those most likely to seal a deal, walk away or refer others.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

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Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
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us and our market…
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About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting nearly

450 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* Add me on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/mclaughlinchris

* Add me on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/mclaughlinchris

“2 Careers That Boom in a Recession!”
I’ll tell you about one of these for fr*ee
in my no-charge, no-cost, no-obligation
webinar right here live Thursday at
8:30 PM ET, 5:30 PM PST:

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Why would I do that for no charge?  Because
I want a chance to tell you about the other
high-income opportunity, too.

And I can’t do it in an email.

But if you’re finally ready to blast out of
this economic mess, then get a move on… I’d
hate for you to miss out, because we always fill
up a day or so early.  See if there’re any spots left:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/792140858

New-home sales drop slightly

According to the Commerce Department, new-home sales dropped 0.6% in May over April, to an annual pace of 342,000 units. This is below what economists had estimated, and well below the 509,000 annual pace of May 2008. The median home price rose from $212,600 in April to $221,600 in May. Inventories of new homes fell to 292,000 units in May. At the current rate of sales, it would take over 10 months to clear the stock of unsold homes. Economists believe that home prices have to fall further to clear unsold home inventory. Joshua Shapiro, chief economist with MFR, says the inventory of homes for sale “will remain enormous, particularly with increased competition coming from distressed sales of existing homes.” Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America, said homebuyers are seeing more attractive opportunities in the existing-home market than in the new-home market. “Builders are less inclined to offer discounts and throw in amenities now that inventories are better under control,” said Moran.

Is HVCC hurting the housing industry?

The Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC), a guideline which introduces a firewall between lending institutions and appraisers, came into effect on the first of May this year. According to Federal Housing Finance Agency, the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, HVCC is meant to “improve the reliability of home appraisals,” by preventing fraud in the appraisal process. Lenders and brokers who wish to sell loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can no longer select an appraiser themselves, instead, they should approach an independent appraisal management company which will assign an appraiser for each deal. This would effectively stop collusion between lenders and appraisers leading to inflated home values. Appraisers and lenders say that HVCC, instead of helping the industry, is hurting it. A number of honest and efficient appraisers have been hit because the appraisal fee should now be shared between the appraisal management company and appraisers, instead of appraisers taking the entire fee. There have been instances of appraisal management companies assigning appraisers who have no familiarity with local conditions and data to appraise properties. This leads to incorrect estimates, and incorrect estimates, in turn, lead to buyers and sellers walking away from deals. Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, has warned that the housing market recovery can get delayed and there could be a rise in foreclosures, if problems related to appraisal are not quickly corrected.

Orders for durable goods surge for the second straight month

Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in May, surprising economists who had predicted a 0.6% decline. The rise in May follows a rise in April and the back-to-back monthly gains indicate that the recession may be coming to an end. “Economic figures, such as the durable goods orders, show that we’re not falling off a cliff”, said Frank Ingarra, a fund manager at Hennessy Funds. Orders for non-defense goods, excluding aircraft, rose 4.8% while orders for computers and related products rose 9.4%. Orders for machinery rose 7.7% percent, the most in more than a year. Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital, said: “The government stimulus has helped income, stabilizing consumer spending, and that’s showing through in better orders.”

Rebecca Blank, undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs, said that the durable goods orders data can be volatile, and cautioned against reading too much into it. Economists say they are yet to see convincing signs of recovery. “The U.S. factory sector still has a long way to go and is facing the headwind of one of the deepest global contractions in a generation,” said Cliff Waldman, an economist with the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI.

Energy Department to lend $8 billion to 3 automakers

The government has expressed its commitment to support energy efficient vehicles by announcing an $8 billion loan to Ford, Nissan, and Tesla Motors. The Energy Department will provide the loan out a $25 billion fund, to develop fuel-efficient vehicles. Energy secretary Steven Chu said: “By supporting key technologies and sound business plans, we can jump-start the production of fuel efficient vehicles in America. These investments will come back to our country many times over by creating new jobs, reducing our dependence on oil, and reducing our greenhouse gas emissions.” Ford will receive $5.9 billion to upgrade its 11 factories in the Midwest to produce hybrids and electric vehicles. Nissan will receive $1.6 billion to build advanced vehicles and a battery manufacturing facility, while Tesla would get $465 million to build electric vehicles and electric drive powertrains in California. “This is a tremendous development,” said Alan Mulally, Chief Executive Officer of Ford. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the Tesla would use the loan “precisely the way that Congress intended — as the capital needed to build sustainable transport.” General Motors and Chrysler failed to qualify for the loan program since they were not considered “financially viable” by the Energy Department.

Hedge funds too want to be left out of new regulations

The Obama administration proposes to include hedge funds along with venture capital funds in its financial overhaul plan. The venture capital industry has already said it is “relatively inconsequential” and should be exempted from the new regulations. Now hedge funds have joined the chorus. Hedge funds have had a terrible time in the recent past with dwindling returns and large capital outflows. After battling markets, hedge funds are now looking at battling Washington. Richard Baker, who heads the Managed Funds Association (MFA), the industry’s lobbying body, is leading the charge. The MFA has been meeting with Treasury officials with idea of pushing its agenda to make changes to the financial reform proposal. Baker says hedge funds should not be deemed “systemically important,” and hence should not be subjected to greater scrutiny by the government. Many analysts disagree. “It’s disingenuous for anyone to claim in this day and age that no hedge fund is systemically important,” said Andrew Lo, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an expert on hedge funds. “Frankly I don’t think any hedge fund manager in his right mind could argue that the industry needs no oversight.”

Now on to our real estate investor education section…

The Problem of PMI and Short Sales

A lot of short sale investors become very confused as soon as PMI is mentioned. PMI or Private Mortgage Insurance is that monthly fee many homeowners pay each and every month for what appears like no apparent reason (in their opinion). Of course, there was a reason for it and if you are contemplating a short sale deal, that reason was a valid concern. PMI was created for the express purpose of insuring against default by home buyers that didn’t put at least 20 percent down when purchasing a home. The idea was simple enough; real estate rarely ever falls and when it does, it rarely falls by much more than 20 percent. Because the majority of mortgages are amortized, the closing costs and larger up-front payments effectively reduce the risk even more. To compensate for the difference between anticipated losses and the actual loss of any profit (after taking amortization etc into account) the homeowner would be forced to pay for PMI until the loan to debt ratio fell below 80 percent. Sounds like a good plan of protection so what could be the problem when it comes to short sales?

Well, the thought process is like this…if the PMI or private mortgage insurance will cough up a higher cost in the event of a default than the short sale offer then it’s less likely they will want to negotiate below a given amount. However, this isn’t always the situation. In some instances the primary mortgage holder will accept a short sale offer if there is a second mortgage or promise of future payment – a controversial but relatively common situation since legally the current homeowner is responsible for any gap. Of course, faced with the prospect of losing their home and still owing money, most homeowners tend to either walk away entirely or simply file for bankruptcy protection. Because of the drama associated with PMI and short sales, many investors simply opt to avoid them altogether.  Before making that decision it’s important to clear up a few myths surrounding PMI and short sales…

1. PMI pays up to 20 percent…not 80 percent. The private mortgage insurance was put into place because the original owner didn’t put at least 20 percent down…it’s the difference between 100 percent financing and 80 percent (or whatever amount above 80 percent financing obtained for the original loan).
2. Transactions costs, maintenance fees and other expenses must also be taken into account.
3. AIG United Guaranty is one of the larger entities holding many of these issues. As you know (or should know), AIG is facing just a few problems of their own to the point that some mortgage companies no longer want to negotiate directly with the PMI during the course of a short sale.

So, the bottom line is this; when making an offer for short sales on any property be sure to find out for sure (don’t leave it to the homeowner to know or understand if they pay PMI) if the property is impacted by PMI. If so, realize that some of the loss will be mitigated by the PMI and plan your calculations accordingly. Should you decide to continue the negotiation process, be sure you fully understand the additional level of complexity added by the existence of PMI into the equation.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

PS:

“2 Careers That Boom in a Recession!”
I’ll tell you about one of these for fr*ee
in my no-charge, no-cost, no-obligation
webinar right here live Thursday at
8:30 PM ET, 5:30 PM PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/792140858

Why would I do that for no charge?  Because
I want a chance to tell you about the other
high-income opportunity, too.

And I can’t do it in an email.

But if you’re finally ready to blast out of
this economic mess, then get a move on… I’d
hate for you to miss out, because we always fill
up a day or so early.  See if there’re any spots left:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/792140858

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute 2009.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting nearly

450 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
* Add me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* Add me on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/mclaughlinchris

——–

No money, no credit – but an honest desire to succeed? 

That’s all it takes to get into the lucrative business of

finding and flipping short sale properties.  We’ve had

people go from zero to six figures in less than six months! 

See if there’re any spots left for this webinar this

Sunday at 8:00 PM ET, 5:00 PM PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/386978354

———

BOA loosening short seller policy

Bank of America (BOA) says it will relax its policy on payoffs connected with short sales.  Large banks have been demanding money for home equity lines and second mortgages that would otherwise be worthless if the short sale property went to foreclosure.  BOA has been among the least cooperative of all banks in agreeing to short sale payoff terms, demanding 10 percent of what the homeowners owed on the equity line balance or second mortgage before signing off on the short sale, which is necessary for the deal to go through.  BOA spokesman Terry Francisco says the new policy is “less arbitrary, more rational.”

New policy

BOA’s new policy is to ask for five percent of the sale proceeds on the short sale, net of realty commissions, closing, and other costs. Some short sellers point to problems, though:  The bank’s previous 10 percent policy meant they’d demand $20,000 on a $200, 000 equity line balance, but under their new policy it will cost the short seller $15,000 if the net proceeds are $300,000″ on a short sale, even though the economic value of their holding may in fact be zero. Says the Realty Times:  “Bottom line for investors: If there’s a Bank of America second mortgage or credit line on the house you’re after in a short sale, work the new numbers.  At least some of the time you might be surprised that the answer from the big bank is now ‘yes.’”

MBA Chairman testifies

David G. Kittle, CMB, Chairman of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) testified yesterday in front of the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing on H.R. 1728, the Mortgage Reform and Anti-Predatory Lending Act of 2009.  He expressed reservations about some aspects, including the patchwork of state and local mortgage lending laws and the requirement that lenders retain at least five percent of the credit risk of non-qualified mortgages.  According to Kittle, the risk retention provision would make it impossible for many lenders to compete, lessening credit availability increasing costs to borrowers.  He also asserted that the definition of “qualified mortgage” was too restrictive, including in its present definition some jumbo loans, fixed 25 – 40 year mortgages, FHA, VA, and even some Fannie and Freddie mortgages.

Freddie Mac grows portfolio and delinquencies

Freddie Mac, announced that its mortgage investment portfolio grew by an annualized 65.8 percent rate in March, while delinquencies on loans it guarantees accelerated.  Its portfolio increased to $867.1 billion, for an annualized 31.0 percent increase year to date, up from  $712.5 billion in March 2008.  The delinquencies that increased stress on the company’s capital jumped to 2.29 percent of its book of business in March from 2.13 percent in February and 0.77 percent in March 2008.  Freddie Mac said the temporary suspension of foreclosures, which expired on March 6, contributed to the increase in single-family delinquency rates.

Durable good sales fall again

The Commerce Department said today that new orders for U.S. durable goods slipped 0.8 percent in March, falling for the seventh month out of the last eight, even though the fall was less than expected.  Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast orders for long-lasting manufactured goods to drop 1.5 percent.  Anna Piretti, senior economist at BNP Paribas in New York says, “I wouldn’t really read this as positive news, but clearly I would say the momentum is less negative than we saw a couple of months ago.”  Where have we heard that before?

Now on to our real estate investing education section…

Ride the Green Tide: Timely Short Sales Tips

Short sale investors searching for unique ways to differentiate their property from the competition need only go green. Whether or not you are a tree-hugger or simply business savvy, riding the green tide is an excellent way to attract the attention of prospective buyers, qualify for potential tax breaks, take advantage of tax credits and actually increase the selling price of homes in your portfolio.

Use these calculations to determine if it is worth the time and money to transform a former energy hog into a lean, green energy efficient money machine:

Tally up the total cost of the improvement including labor, taxes and supplies.

Discount city, county, state or federal tax incentives or other credits you may be eligible to receive.

Calculate the long term potential energy savings as compared to standard builder’s model of the same item. Be sure to quantify this in very specific terms for each upgrade put into place. For example, let’s assume you install a new water heater expected to save an additional $20 per month or $240 annually. Over a 30 year mortgage that water heater would save $7,200 in energy costs alone.

Since most people don’t think that far ahead also include a five to seven year calculation…ie, in five years it would save an additional $1,200. Do this for each item in the home to show potential buyers how buying your home makes financial sense both today and in the future.

Add up the five, seven and thirty year savings then do a little bragging. Don’t assume it is obvious…make it a selling point to show how cost effective this home is compared to others on the market.

Get creative. Often some of the best ideas cost the least. For example, changing bulbs to energy efficient models is an inexpensive modification that adds significant savings to the bottom line of buyers. Here are a few other green ideas to get you started:

Appliances – stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave etc…

Lighting – search for florescent and/or LED

Water Heater, Pool/Jacuzzi Heater

Local landscaping – less water and less time

Tile floors – easy to keep clean and never need to be replaced like carpeting

Ceiling fans, whole house fans and other alternative cooling methods

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html  

P.S.

Don’t miss our webinar Sunday at 8:00 PM ET, 5:00 PM PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/386978354

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute 2009.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com 
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com *************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month

   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid flipping of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties

    * Owner and Supervising Broker of one of Florida’s
     largest Real Estate firms, running 4 different
     offices, supporting nearly 450 agents, uniquely
     positioning him to help thousands of investors
     make money in the biggest market opportunity ever!

     * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building

     * On twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
     * On facebook:

http://www.facebook.com/addfriend.php?id=709199143

—