The rise of short sales in Metro Detroit is helping keep the number of foreclosures down, according to an analyst for a foreclosure tracking company.  Half of the states in the nation saw foreclosure activity rise in April, but Michigan continued to rack up double-digit losses — experiencing a 28% decline from a year ago, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac. In April, Metro Detroit saw a 32% plunge in default notices, sheriff’s auctions and lender repossessions from a year ago, though activity increased 4% from the previous month.  The total number of April foreclosure filings for Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties amounted to 4,791, compared with 7,081 in April 2011. It was the 18th consecutive month that foreclosure activity dropped in the region. 

RealtyTrac earlier this year predicted an increase of at least 20% in foreclosure filings for the first half of this year because of a nationwide settlement of faulty practices in mortgage signings. Analysts expected that to unleash a backlog of foreclosed properties.  Instead, short sales have nearly doubled. In Metro Detroit, short sales in January jumped 69% over the same time the year before, said RealtyTrac analyst Daren Blomquist.  In April, short sales made up 12% of all residential real estate sales in Metro Detroit, according to the monthly report by residential listing service Realcomp II Ltd., a Farmington Hills multiple listing service.  Another reason foreclosure filings may not have risen as expected is because lenders worry about flooding the market with distressed property and driving down prices, according to Clear Capital, a California-based housing consulting firm.

Jobs static

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits held steady at a seasonally adjusted 370,000, the Labor Department said.  The prior week’s figure was revised up to 370,000 from the previously reported 367,000.  Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 365,000 last week. The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 4,750 to 375,000.  “We are really not showing much momentum in the labor market at this time,” said Sean Incremona, an economist at 4Cast in New York.  The data comes on the heels of three straight months of slowing employment gains. Companies added 115,000 new jobs to their payrolls in April, the fewest in six months.  Thursday’s report on claims covered the week for May’s payrolls survey. The four-week average of new applications fell marginally between the April and May survey periods, suggesting not much change in labor market conditions.

Olick – foreclosures move east

Foreclosure activity in April fell nationally to the lowest level since the summer of 2007, but government intervention and the recent $25 billion mortgage servicing settlement are now changing the face of the crisis.  Foreclosure filings, which include default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions, fell 5% in April from March, according to a new report from RealtyTrac, and are down 14% from April of 2011. One in every 698 US housing units had a foreclosure filing during the month.  “Rising foreclosure activity in many state and local markets in April was masked at the national level by sizable decreases in hard-hit foreclosure states like California, Arizona and Nevada,” said Brandon Moore, CEO of RealtyTrac in a release. “Those three states, and several other non-judicial foreclosure states like them, more efficiently processed foreclosures last year, resulting in fewer catch-up foreclosures this year.”

Major banks are also suspending foreclosure actions, as they comply with the mortgage servicing settlement that was the result of so-called “robo-signing” in foreclosure document processing. Bank of America recently announced that it was beginning a summer-long campaign to contact 200,000 borrowers, and offer them principal reduction, as part of the settlement; foreclosure actions, bank representatives said, would be suspended until the bank had reached them all and determined if they were eligible for new loan modifications.  Lenders are also responding more efficiently to requests for short sales, which is when the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage. New financial incentives from the government and new streamlined programs at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are behind much of that.  “Our preliminary first quarter sales data show that pre-foreclosure sales, typically short sales, are on pace to outnumber sales of bank-owned properties during the quarter in California, Arizona and 10 other states,” adds Moore.

As also reported today by the Mortgage Bankers Association, there is a big discrepancy between foreclosure activity in states that require a judge in the process (judicial) and states that do not (non-judicial). The MBA reported a rising number of loans in the foreclosure process in judicial states, but a falling number in non-judicial states during the first three months of the year. For April, RealtyTrac reports foreclosure activity down 7% from March and down 29% from a year ago. In judicial states, activity was down just 3% month to month but still up 15% from a year ago.  The judicial/non-judicial split is pushing the foreclosure crisis east, as some of the worst-hit states like California, Arizona and Nevada are able to clear through the backlog more quickly. The 11 cities with annual increases in foreclosure activity were all in the Midwest, South or on the East Coast, while six of the nine cities with annual decreases were out West in California, Arizona and Washington, according to RealtyTrac. California and Nevada, however, still post the top foreclosure rates, along with judicial Florida.

The supply of bank-owned properties in non-judicial states is also falling, as a growing cadre of investors sweeps in to buy distressed properties at the courthouse steps. One California Realtor speaking at the National Association of Realtors’ midyear conference this week told the conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, “We don’t need a bulk REO sale program, we have no inventory!”  Bank repossessions (REO) are down for the third straight month, according to RealtyTrac. Lenders took back 51,415 properties in April.

Ryan on debt woes

Asked what he would be willing to give up to address the US debt crisis, Rep. Paul Ryan stood his ground Tuesday and insisted it was Democrats who needed to cede ground.  “I’m not interested in negotiating with myself on television. It’s futile, in my opinion,” he said on CNBC’s “The Kudlow Report.”  Ryan said,  “The Senate has chosen not to pass a budget in three years.  The president has chosen to disavow the fiscal commission, to not put a budget that attempts to deal with any of these issues. We have passed solutions.”  Ryan, R-Wis., who chairs the House Budget Committee, backed the idea of tax reform that would lower rates and eliminate or reduce deductions to “broaden the base,” which would lead to increased revenues.  “We think that is a good offer,” he said.  “We have yet to see any movement on the other side on fundamental entitlement reform,” he said.  “If you simply chase higher spending with higher revenues, you’ll end up shutting down the economy and not solving the debt crisis. The debt crisis is a spending-driven crisis, and there’s never been a moment where the other side has been willing to do fundamental entitlement reform that is necessary to preventing a debt crisis in the first place.”

MBA – delinquencies down

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.40% of all loans outstanding as of the end of the first quarter of 2012, a decrease of 18 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2011, and a decrease of 92 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The non-seasonally adjusted delinquency rate decreased 121 basis points to 6.94% this quarter from 8.15% last quarter.  The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the fourth quarter was 0.96%, down three basis points from last quarter and down 12 basis points from one year ago. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the first quarter was 4.39%, up one basis point from the first quarter and 13 basis points lower than one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 7.44%, a decrease of 29 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 66 basis points from the first quarter of last year.  The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due was 11.33% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a 120 basis point decrease from last quarter and was 98 basis points lower than a year ago. This was the lowest that this measure has been since 2008.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the overall delinquency rate decreased for all loan types except VA loans for the fourth quarter of 2011. The seasonally adjusted delinquency rate decreased five basis points to 4.07% for prime fixed loans and decreased 17 basis points to 9.05% for prime ARM loans. The delinquency rate decreased 34 basis points to 19.33% for subprime fixed loans and decreased 24 basis points to 22.16% for subprime ARM loans. FHA loans also saw a decline, with the delinquency rate decreasing 36 basis points to 12.00, while the delinquency rate for VA loans increased two basis points to 6.57.  The% of loans in foreclosure, also known as the foreclosure inventory rate, increased overall from last quarter to 4.39%. Broken down, the foreclosure inventory rate for prime fixed loans increased seven basis points to 2.59% and the rate for prime ARM loans increased four basis points from last quarter to 8.76%. The rate for subprime ARM loans decreased 62 basis points to 21.55% and the rate for subprime fixed loans decreased 17 basis points to 10.48.  The foreclosure inventory rate for FHA loans increased 29 basis points to 3.83 while the rate for VA loans increased nine basis points to 2.46.  The non-seasonally adjusted foreclosure starts rate remained unchanged for prime fixed loans at 0.62%, decreased eight basis points for prime ARM loans to 1.75%, decreased 20 basis points for subprime fixed to 2.13% and 57 basis points for subprime ARMs to 3.22%. The foreclosure starts rate increased eight basis points for FHA loans to 0.96% and five basis points for VA loans to 0.65%.

Compared with the first quarter of 2011, the foreclosure inventory rate: decreased 77 basis points for prime ARM loans, remained unchanged prime fixed loans, decreased five basis points for subprime fixed, decreased 71 basis points for subprime ARM loans, increased 48 basis points for FHA loans and increased seven basis points for VA loans.  Over the past year, the non-seasonally adjusted foreclosure starts rate: decreased six basis points for prime fixed loans, decreased 21 basis points for prime ARM loans, decreased 43 basis points for subprime fixed, decreased 45 basis points for subprime ARM loans, increased three basis points for FHA loans and decreased eight basis points for VA loans.

Banks have to raise $566 billion

The world’s largest banks must raise a combined $566 billion to satisfy new capital requirements, Fitch Ratings said on Thursday, as the authorities demand that banks hold more cash in reserve to protect against future financial shocks.  The figure represents a 23% increase on what the banks currently hold in reserve and will most likely reduce return on equity, a critical figure used to gauge a firm’s profitability, Fitch said.  The banks affected are the 29 “systemically important financial institutions” as designated by the global Financial Stability Board. They include the likes of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, HSBC of Britain and the Mizuho Financial Group of Japan. In total, the firms hold roughly $47 trillion in combined assets.  Under new regulatory rules, known as Basel III, the firms must have a Tier 1 common equity ratio, a measure of a bank’s ability to weather financial shocks, of roughly 9.5% by 2019, though officials are eager for banks to meet the targets as soon as possible.  To meet the deadline, Fitch says the 29 banks will probably hold onto future earnings and cut shareholder dividends, wind down exposure to risky investments like underperforming real estate portfolios, and tap investors for new cash.

NAHB – housing starts up

Nationwide housing production gained 2.6% from an upwardly revised pace in March to hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000 units in April, according to newly released figures from the US Census Bureau and HUD. This modest gain was seen in both the single- and multifamily sectors, which registered growth of 2.3% and 3.2%, respectively.  “April’s increase in housing production comes on top of strong upward revisions to the previous month’s data, and is an encouraging sign that we are returning to a gradual, upward trend that should continue in the year ahead as builders respond to improving demand for new homes in certain markets,” said Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “Unfortunately, overly restrictive lending conditions for builders and buyers are slowing the pace of this trend considerably.”  “While still less than half the pace of what we would expect in a fully healthy market, the rate of housing production in April was very solid for this point of the recovery and in keeping with the findings of our latest builder surveys that have registered modest improvements in buyer traffic and near-term sales expectations for single-family homes,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

The 2.6% gain in housing production this April was due to a 2.3% increase on the single-family side to a seasonally adjusted, annual rate of 492,000 units and a 3.2% increase on the multifamily side to a 225,000-unit rate.  Regionally, starts were mixed in April, with the Midwest and South posting gains of 6.7% and 11.6%, respectively, and the Northeast and West posting respective declines of 20.7% and 8.1%.  Permit issuance – which can be an indicator of future building activity – fell 7.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 715,000 units in April following an unsustainably large gain in the previous month. The decline was entirely on the more volatile multifamily side, where permits fell 20.8% to a 240,000-unit rate that is essentially back to trend. Single-family permits gained 1.9% to 475,000 units.  Regionally in April, permit activity held unchanged in the Northeast while declining 12.3% in the Midwest, 3.2% in the South and 13.9% in the West, respectively.

Bank of America (BOA) is offering some struggling homeowners payments of up to $30,000 if they sell their homes in a short sale and avoid ending up in foreclosure.  Under the plan, Bank of America will offer homeowners so-called relocation payments of between $2,500 and $30,000 if they sell their home in a short sale. In short sale deals, the sale price of the home is less than what the seller owes the bank.  The bank first tested the payments in a pilot program in Florida last fall. Under that initiative, Bank of America paid up to $20,000 to borrowers who sold their homes in short sales.  Chase started a similar initiative in late 2010 that pays as much as $35,000 to short sellers. Wells Fargo has also paid five-figure incentives to short sellers or to owners who turned over their deeds to the bank.  BOA said it has completed 200,000 short sales over the past two years. These sales are generally more cost effective for banks than foreclosures. By avoiding foreclosure, the lenders get distressed properties back from delinquent borrowers more quickly, which helps them to avoid property tax payments, maintenance expenses and legal fees that can build up for months, even years, as foreclosures work through the system.

In addition, the incentives help guarantee the homes will return to the lenders in better condition. Foreclosed properties are often poorly maintained, even sometimes sabotaged, by angry former owners, making them worth far less to the banks.  During the last three months of 2011, foreclosures sold for an average of about $150,000, according to RealtyTrac. Meanwhile, short sales sold for an average of about $185,000.  To qualify for Bank of America’s relocation payments, borrowers must obtain pre-approval on sale prices for their homes. The sale must begin by the end of 2012 and close by September 26, 2013.  The exact compensation is determined case-by-case based on a calculation that involves the home’s value, mortgage balance and other factors.  Borrowers can call 877-459-2852 to find out if they may be eligible for the program.

Business inventories up

The Commerce Department said inventories increased 0.3% to a record $1.58 trillion, after rising 0.6% in February.  Economists polled by Reuters had forecast inventories rising 0.4%.  Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product and March’s report was the latest to suggest the government could lower its 2.2% growth estimate for the first quarter.  Data on wholesale and manufacturing inventories released last week indicated a slower pace of restocking in March than the government had assumed in its initial first-quarter GDP estimate published last month.  Inventories in March were held back by declining stocks for furniture and building materials. Automobile inventories rose 1.2% in March after rising 1.4% the previous month.  Inventories excluding autos, which is used to calculate GDP, ticked up 0.1% after rising 0.2% in February.  Business sales increased 0.6% to a record $1.24 trillion in March, after rising 0.7% the prior month. At March’s sales pace it will take 1.27 months for businesses to clear shelves, down from 1.28 months in February.

MBA – refinance applications up

Mortgage applications increased 9.2% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 11, 2012.   The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8.7% compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index increased 13.0% from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.4% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.4% compared with the previous week and was 1.0% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1.77%.  The four week moving average is up 1.57% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.88% for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 74.9% of total applications from 72.1% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.4% from 5.7% of total applications from the previous week.  “A flare up of the sovereign debt troubles in Europe once again led investors to flee to the safety of US Treasury securities last week.  As a result, mortgage rates have reached new lows in our survey, and refinancing application volumes picked up substantially as a result,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.    “Survey participants indicated that this was not due primarily to HARP volume – the HARP share of refinances fell to 28% of refinance applications, down relative to last week and last month, when the share was just above 30% in April.  The increase in refinance activity last week was concentrated in the conventional sector, which was up around 14% for the week, while government refinance applications were up only 4%.”  During the month of April, the investor share of applications for home purchase was at 5.7%, unchanged from March.  The Pacific region has the largest investor share of applications for home purchase at 9.5%. In addition, the share of purchase mortgages for second homes decreased to 5.7% in April from 5.8% in March.

Gold enters bear market

Gold entered a so-called bear market, dropping for a fourth day, after Greek leaders failed to form a government, increasing speculation that the country may quit the euro and driving the Dollar Index (DXY) to a record advance.  Immediate-delivery gold lost as much as 0.7% to $1,533 an ounce, more than 20% below its all-time high last September and fulfilling the common definition of the market slump. That’s the cheapest since Dec. 29. The precious metal traded at $1,535.75 at 2:01 p.m. in Singapore.  A second Greek vote will be held, possibly next month, as gridlock followed a May 6 ballot in which voters rejected the austerity program that underpins the country’s bailout accords. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called the new election a referendum on whether Greece stays in the euro.  “It’s a risk-off environment,” Peter Hickson, head of commodities research at UBS AG, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “People are concerned about liquidity and they’re going to take security in the US dollar.”

Since peaking at $1,921.15 an ounce last year, spot bullion has exceeded the 20% decline twice before, in both September and December, and is 1.8% lower in 2012 after gaining for the past 11 years.  June-delivery bullion lost as much as 1.6% to $1,532.70 an ounce in New York, declining more than 20% from its record. Futures have also dropped into a bear market twice since reaching the record last year.  The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge, climbed for a 14th day, the longest winning run since its inception in 1973. The euro dropped to $1.2699, the weakest since Jan. 17.  Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products fell 0.1% to 2,379.367 metric tons yesterday, according to data tracked by Bloomberg. Investor George Soros increased his holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust in the first quarter, while John Paulson maintained his stake, filings showed yesterday.  Spot gold’s so-called 14-day relative strength index dropped to 21.07, below the level of 30 that some analysts regard as signaling a rebound. One ounce of gold bought as much as 56.0702 ounces of silver today, the most since Jan. 9, according to Bloomberg data.

Olick – foreclosures down – a bad thing?

“A new report came out [yesterday] with a curious headline: ‘Foreclosure Activity Declines, Hurting Investors.’ I read it twice. You would think declines in foreclosure activity would be a good thing, that is, would help, not hurt. Not in this bizarre housing market. The report is from Foreclosure Radar, a foreclosure sales and analytics website.  Foreclosure starts, the first stage in the foreclosure process, fell in April in the hardest hit states of California, Arizona and Nevada, according to Foreclosure Radar. California saw the steepest slide, with Notice of Default filings down nearly 16% from a year ago and nearly 70% from the peak in March of 2009.  Foreclosure sales (sales of these properties at the courthouse steps, not sales of already bank-owned, or REO, properties) also declined, as the investor share of these purchases soared to a record high. ‘Nevada investors purchased more than 50% of foreclosure sales for the first time at 50.7%,’ according to the Foreclosure Radar report. ‘The low number of sales, combined with a record% purchased on the courthouse steps, left very little to become Bank Owned (REO). This further depletes the inventory of Bank Owned homes, as REO sales continue to outpace the addition of new inventory.’

Why all the declines? Unfortunately it’s not an overall improvement in the housing market, nor an increasing ability of borrowers to stay current on their mortgage payments.  ‘Instead we are seeing unprecedented government intervention into the foreclosure process, leaving underwater homeowners in limbo, while stealing opportunity from investors and first-time buyers,’ says Foreclosure Radar CEO Sean O’Toole, who cites new legislation in Nevada which brought foreclosure activity to a near halt, and similar pending legislation in California. ‘The reality is that these laws don’t solve anything, as they fail to address the real problem—negative equity – while instead they punish real estate professionals, homebuyers, and investors far more than the banks they were aimed at,’ argues O’Toole.  The recent $25 billion mortgage servicing settlement between the nation’s five largest lenders, state attorneys general and the US Department of Justice, has sent servicers back to the drawing board on many thousands of delinquent loans and loans that were already in the foreclosure process. Bank of America alone has suspended 200,000 foreclosure actions, as it offers principal reduction modifications to comply with its $11 billion share of the settlement.

Government and private sector programs are both trying to mitigate the foreclosure crisis, but as the rental market shows no sign of cooling off, investors are increasingly arguing that these troubled mortgages should be allowed to run their course through to foreclosure. That of course benefits investors but ignores the human toll inflicted on so many desperate American families. But again, as O’Toole argues, we’re doing none of these homeowners any good by keeping them in homes in which they will likely never see any equity; underwater borrowers are effectively renting already anyway, not to mention that they are stuck in place because they can’t sell.  Government intervention in the mortgage market, be it foreclosure mitigation, subsidized refinancing, or artificially low interest rates will not abate in an election year because politics always trump fundamental economics. What’s so interesting this year is that while politicians have consistently vilified investors throughout the housing crash, they need them now more than ever to help clear the distressed homes from the market and provide much needed rental housing.  At some point even the politicians will have to look past who did or did not act ‘responsibly’ during the run-up to the housing crash and focus on who has the best chance of setting things right again.”

First shots fired in the debt-ceiling debate

Republican speaker John Boehner vowed yesterday that the House will not wait until after November elections to find a way to avoid a year-end “fiscal cliff” – and that House Republicans will, again, refuse to raise the national debt limit, unless Congress offsets the hike with spending cuts.  “Previous Congresses have encountered lesser precipices with lower stakes and made a beeline for the closest lame-duck escape hatch,” Mr. Boehner said, at a speech at a fiscal summit sponsored by the Peterson Foundation in Washington.  “Let me put your mind at ease. This Congress will not follow that path, not if I have anything to do with it.”  With Congress putting off its challenges until the lame-duck session between the November elections and the new year, it could be said that all of Capitol Hill is staring down a massive financial collision. Whether to extend the Bush tax cuts and the budget-slashing “sequester,” raise the debt ceiling, extend unemployment benefits and the payroll tax holiday, and fix payments to physicians from Medicare may all have to be resolved in only six short weeks if the Democrats get their way.  By contrast, Boehner aims to get to work before November elections, offering by far the most concrete plans to get to work ahead of the lame-duck session of any congressional leader. The House will hold votes on the expiring Bush tax cuts before the elections, he said. It will also put together a process for an “expedited” path to tax reform in the new year.  “If we do this right, we will never again have to deal with the uncertainty of expiring tax rates,” Boehner said.

WSJ – architectural billings index slips

After five months of positive readings, the Architecture Billings Index slipped back into negative territory during April, an indication that demand for design services declined.  The score for April was 48.4, compared with 50.4 in March. A score above 50 means billings increased. The index, compiled by the American Institute of Architects (AIA), is considered an early indicator of future construction, given that developers need designs before they build. AIA economist Kermit Baker said the volatility in the index isn’t surprising considering “the continued volatility in the overall economy.”  He also noted that weather patterns may have played a role in the latest reading. “Favorable conditions during the winter months may have accelerated design billings, producing a pause in projects that have moved ahead faster than expected,” he said.

Short sales and huge inventories of bank-owned real estate properties continue to put downward pressure on home prices, according to data released today by California-based analytics company CoreLogic. Fifty-seven of the 100 largest statistical areas based on population posted year-over-year declines in March.  Nationally, CoreLogic’s March Home Price Index report shows prices fell 33.7% in March 2012, from their peak in April 2006.  Home prices, including distressed sales, edged downward year-over-year, falling 0.6% from March 2011 to March 2012. Excluding distressed sales, home prices rose slightly, climbing 0.9% year-over-year. In spite of the yearly decline, home prices rose month-over-month. Including short sales and real estate held by banks, prices increased 0.6% month-over-month — the first monthly rise since July 2011. Proving just how much of a drag short sales and REOs are on home values, prices have appreciated monthly for three consecutive months when distressed sales are excluded from the stats.  Even with all the bad news, the relatively flat monthly and yearly changes seem to indicate prices are beginning to steady, and some states even saw significant price appreciation. Wyoming, West Virginia, Arizona, North Dakota and Florida all saw yearly gains of 4% or more. Wyoming topped the list with an increase of 5.9% year-over-year.

Jobless claims slightly down

Slightly fewer Americans filed for new unemployment benefits last week, a reassuring sign about the labor market in the closely watched economic reading.  The Labor Department reported yesterday that 367,000 filed new jobless claims in the week ended May 5, down from 368,000 the week before. The previous week reading was revised up by 3,000.  Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast 365,000 would file for help.  There have been growing worries about a weakening of the recovery in the jobs market, especially after a disappointing April jobs report that showed employers adding far fewer jobs than expected.  Jobless claims, which had been falling steadily earlier this spring, also had climbed again in recent weeks before a drop two weeks ago.

Free mortgage review, few apply

It’s been more than six months since government regulators and banks first extended an offer to 4.3 million homeowners facing foreclosure: to review, at no cost, the foreclosure process to check for any possible errors or misrepresentations.  Homeowners stand to collect compensation of as much as $100,000 if errors are found. But thus far, only a tiny percentage of those eligible have signed up.  The push for a review process was set in motion by the “robo-signing” scandal. In 2010, several banks admitted mishandling some foreclosure documents. Some borrowers may have wrongfully lost their homes as a result, and the scandal exposed systemic problems in the foreclosure process.  In the wake of the scandal, federal bank regulators required 14 mortgage companies to establish the Independent Foreclosure Review process.

The review costs homeowners nothing, but at last count, only 165,000 people — fewer than 4% of those eligible — have applied.  The original April 30 deadline has since been extended to July 31.  Last month, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan tried enlisting a group of housing counselors to get more homeowners to sign up for the review.  “I am concerned that not enough folks have signed up, and that we’re going to waste that opportunity,” Donovan said.  Donovan says the process presents the first real opportunity for most troubled homeowners to get an independent read on whether their case was — or is — being handled appropriately.

Chinese banks coming to a location near you

The Federal Reserve gave three state-owned Chinese banks its stamp of approval Thursday to expand their presence in the United States.  The central bank accepted an application from Industrial and Commerce Bank of China Ltd., along with China Investment Corporation and Central Huijin Investment, to become bank holding companies by purchasing up to an 80% stake in New York-based Bank of East Asia USA.  The approval marks the first time the Fed has allowed any large Chinese bank to purchase a US bank, and it could boost merger and acquisition activity “as Chinese banks may look to acquire regional banks in order to establish a US footprint,” said Guggenheim senior policy analyst Jaret Seiberg, in a research note.  Meanwhile, the Fed also granted the Bank of China permission to open its fourth US branch in Chicago. The Beijing-based bank already has two branches in New York and one in Los Angeles.

NAR – sales up, inventory down

Median existing single-family home prices are firming in many metropolitan areas, while improving sales and declining inventory are creating more balanced conditions, according to the latest quarterly report by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  The median existing single-family home price rose in 74 out of 146 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) based on closings in the first quarter from the same quarter in 2011, while 72 areas had price declines.  In the fourth quarter of 2011 only 29 areas were showing gains from a year earlier.  A new breakout of income requirements on a metro basis shows most buyers have the necessary income to buy a home in their area, assuming a favorable credit rating.

At the end of the first quarter there were 2.37 million existing homes available for sale, which is 21.8% below the close of the first quarter of 2011 when there were 3.03 million homes on the market.  There has been a sustained downtrend since inventories set a record of 4.04 million in the summer of 2007.  The national median existing single-family home price was $158,100 in the first quarter, which is 0.4% below $158,700 in the first quarter of 2011.  The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less.  Distressed homes - foreclosures and short sales which sold at deep discounts – accounted for 32% of first quarter sales; they were 38% a year ago.  Total existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, increased 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million in the first quarter from a downwardly revised 4.37 million in the fourth quarter, and were 5.3% above the 4.34 million level during the first quarter of 2011 when sales spiked. 

The national median family income was $61,000 in the first quarter.  However, to purchase a home at the national median price, a buyer making a 5% down payment would only need a $34,700 income.  With a 10% down payment the required income would be $32,900, while with 20% down, the income drops to $29,300.  First-time buyers purchased 33% of homes in the first quarter, unchanged from the fourth quarter; they were 32% in the first quarter of 2011.  The share of all-cash home purchases in the first quarter was 32%, up from 29% in the fourth quarter; they were 33% in the first quarter of 2011.  Investors, drawn by bargain prices and who make up the bulk of cash purchasers, accounted for 22% of all transactions in the first quarter, up from 19% in the fourth quarter; they were 21% a year ago.  In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 52 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $157,200 in the first quarter, which is up 3.4% from the first quarter of 2011.  Eighteen metros showed increases in their median condo price from a year ago and 34 areas had declines.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 8.6% in the first quarter and are 6.6% above the first quarter of 2011.  The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 3.2% to $226,300 in the first quarter from a year ago.  In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 5.5% in the first quarter and are 11.7% higher than a year ago.  The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest increased 0.8% to $125,300 in the first quarter from the same quarter in 2011.  Existing-home sales in the South increased 2.1% in the first quarter and are 4.1% above the first quarter in 2011.  The median existing single-family home price in the South rose 1.2% to $143,600 in the first quarter from a year earlier.  Existing-home sales in the West rose 5.9% in the first quarter and are 1.4% higher than a year ago.  The median existing single-family home price in the West slipped 0.9% to $196,200 in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2011.

CoreLogic today released its National Foreclosure Report for March, which provides monthly data on completed foreclosures, foreclosure inventory and 90+ day delinquency rates. There were 69,000 completed foreclosures in March 2012 compared to 85,000 in March 2011 and 66,000* in February 2012. Through the first quarter of 2012, there were 198,000 completed foreclosures compared to 232,000 through the first quarter of 2011. Since the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.5 million completed foreclosures.   Approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.4% of all homes with a mortgage, were in the national foreclosure inventory as of March 2012 compared to 1.5 million, or 3.5%, in March 2011 and 1.4 million, or 3.4%, in February 2012. The number of loans in the foreclosure inventory decreased by nearly 100,000, or 6.0%, in March 2012 compared to March 2011.   

The share of borrowers nationally that were more than 90 days late on their mortgage payment, including homes in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) assets, fell to 7.0% in March 2012 from 7.5% in March 2011, and remained unchanged from 7.0% in February 2012.  Also in March, the inventory of REO assets held by servicers nationwide grew more slowly than the pace of REO sales, as measured by the distressed clearing ratio.  The distressed clearing ratio is calculated by dividing the number of REO sales by the number of completed foreclosures. The higher the distressed clearing ratio, the faster the pace of REO sales relative to the pace of completed foreclosures.  The distressed clearing ratio for March 2012 was 0.81, up from 0.76 in February 2012.

 Highlights as of March 2012

-  The five states with the largest number of completed foreclosures for the 12 months ending in March 2012 were:  California (150,000), Florida (92,000), Michigan (62,000), Arizona (58,000) and Texas (57,000). These five states account for 49.1% of all completed foreclosures nationally.

-  The% of homeowners nationally who were more than 90 days late on their mortgage payments, including homes in foreclosure and REO, was 7.0% for March 2012 compared to 7.5% for March 2011, and 7.0% in February 2012.   

-  The five states with the highest foreclosure rates were:  Florida (12.1%), New Jersey (6.6%), Illinois (5.4%), Nevada (4.9%) and New York (4.9%).

-  The five states with the lowest foreclosure rates were:  Wyoming (0.7%), Alaska (0.8%), North Dakota (0.8%), Nebraska (1.1%) and South Dakota (1.4%).

-  Of the top 100 markets, measured by Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) population, 35 are showing an increase in the year-over-year foreclosure rate in March 2012, two more than in February 2012 when 33 of the top CBSAs were showing an increase in the year-over-year foreclosure rate.   

*February data was revised.  Revisions are standard, and to ensure accuracy CoreLogic incorporates newly released data to provide updated results.

BOA to cut 400 jobs

Bank of America (BOA) is planning to cut up to 400 jobs in its investment banking, corporate banking, and sales and trading units, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the situation.  An expected sale of the bank’s non-US wealth-management operations in Asia, Latin America, and Europe would eliminate up to 2,000 jobs, the Journal reported.  Reuters reported on April 17 that Bank of America was looking to sell its wealth-management units outside the US for as much as $3 billion.  BOA declined to comment on the Journal report.  Last spring, the bank announced a cost-cutting program called Project New BAC that aims to eliminate 30,000 consumer banking and technology jobs over the next few years.  The bank has said it expects to wrap up plans for the second phase of the program, which focuses on investment banking, commercial banking, and related support jobs in May. The second phase is expected to cut fewer jobs than the first because it covers a smaller, more efficient part of the bank.  At the end of March, Bank of America had about 278,700 employees worldwide.

Olick – renter nation

“More Americans are renting homes, and fewer are owning them; it’s not as if this is news to anyone who follows the US housing market, but a new report from the Census Bureau today really put an historical exclamation point on the trend.  The share of US household renting reached a fifteen year high, and home ownership reached a 15-year low. Funny how those numbers travel together.  34.6% of households were renters in the first quarter of this year, and that number is climbing, as lack of credit or sufficient down payment keeps Americans young and old from becoming home owners. Rental vacancies are therefore falling, the lowest rate out West, where foreclosures have run the highest during this housing crash. That is also where investors are rushing in to buy foreclosed properties and put them up for rent. Single family homes for rent, in fact, surpassed multi-family units, taking 52% of the $3 trillion rental market, according to CoreLogic.

Both rental and homeowner vacancies are down, which is a general positive for the housing market, because empty houses are a blight on communities. ‘The vacancy rates will only decline if household formation is increasing or units are being destroyed,’ notes ISI Group’s Stephen East.  While banks have bulldozed some foreclosed properties here and there, the practice is by no means popular or widespread. That should mean that household formation is increasing, which is generally a product of an improving jobs picture. Younger Americans who have been living together or with their parents may finally be getting into their own homes, more likely into rentals, but at least they’re forming their own households. That is thanks to a small drop in the unemployment rate among 25-34 year olds to its lowest rate in three years. The home ownership rate now stands at 65.4%, down a full percentage point from a year ago, and down from just over 69% at the peak in 2004.  Since the recession began, growth in overall new households has been about 50% short of trend lines, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. While household formation is rebounding for single or un-related Americans, formation among families is still waning; that may be due to the types of homes they need, i.e. larger, single-family homes. It thus stands to reason that pent-up demand will show itself first in single family rentals in the future and less in multi-family. No wonder investors are flooding the foreclosure market.”

No more easing?

Two top Federal Reserve officials — one with a dovish, employment-focused bent, and the other a self-avowed inflation hawk — yesterday both said they see no need for the US central bank to ease monetary policy any further.  But the comments, from San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, do not mean they believe the central bank should quickly move to raise rates, which it has kept near zero for more than three years.  The economy grew at a 2.2% pace last quarter, down from its 3% growth rate in the final three months of the year. Recent economic data, including a gauge of business activity in the US Midwest, signal growth may slow further this quarter.  “I don’t think we are ready to exit yet,” Fisher, an inflation hawk, told Reuters at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles.  Fisher said he would oppose the extension of Operation Twist, the Fed bond-buying program that is set to end in June, but stopped short of calling for outright monetary tightening.  “We’ll have to see how the year works out,” he said.

US home ownership sets new record – down

The US homeownership rate fell to the lowest level in 15 years in the first quarter as borrowers lost homes to foreclosure and tighter inventory and credit kept buyers off the market.  The rate dropped to 65.4% from 66% in the fourth quarter and fell a full percentage point from a year earlier, the Census Bureau said in a report today. That is the lowest level since the first quarter of 1997, and down from a record 69.2% in June 2004.  Mounting foreclosures are displacing borrowers, while a lack of inventory has kept home sales from accelerating amid record affordability, the National Association of Realtors reported April 19. Stricter mortgage standards are also limiting purchases as rental demand surges, said Paul Diggle, property economist with Capital Economics Ltd. in London.  “Although house prices and mortgage rates have fallen to a level that makes buying preferable to renting, ongoing problems accessing mortgage credit are preventing many households from taking advantage,” he wrote in a note today.  The US apartment vacancy rate fell to 4.9% in the first quarter, an 11-year low, according to New York-based Reis Inc. (REIS).  The vacancy rate for rental homes was 8.8% in the first quarter, compared with 9.7% a year earlier, the Census Bureau said in today’s report.

Of the estimated 132.6 million US homes, 18.5 million, or 13.9%, were vacant in the first quarter. A year earlier, about 19 million homes were vacant, according to the report. That includes homes for sale or rent or held off the market, and vacation properties used seasonally.  The ownership rate may drop below 64% by the end of 2015 and stay there for years, Scott Simon, the mortgage bond head of Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said in an e-mail today.  “It will be lower by 2017,” he said. “It will be lower in 2020.”  About 6 million borrowers will lose their properties in the next five years because of inability to pay, creating 4 million new rental households, Simon said in an April 24 interview on Bloomberg Television.  The homeownership rate fell 3 percentage points from a year earlier to 61.4% in the first quarter for people aged 35 to 44, the biggest drop of any age group. The Northeast had the biggest regional decline, with the ownership rate falling 1.4 percentage points to 62.5%. The West had the lowest ownership rate at 59.9%, down 1 percentage point from a year earlier. 

The US homeownership rate rose to a record in 2004 when President George W. Bush, running for re-election, called for expanding home-loan availability to create an “ownership society.” The current rate of 65.4% matches the average since 1965, when the Census Bureau began reporting the figures, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  Home prices fell 3.5% in February from a year earlier and are 35% below their July 2006 peak, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 US cities. The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan was 3.88% last week and reached 3.87% in February, the lowest level in at least four decades, according to Freddie Mac.  About 2.37 million homes were listed for sale in March, a and 6.3 month supply and down 22% from a year earlier, the Realtors association said on April 19. A six-month supply is considered a healthy market, according to the group.

Median home prices in Illinois snapped a 20-month streak of price declines in March, a turnaround coinciding with the start of the spring selling season.  The statewide median price in March came in at $130,000, even with March 2011, according to the Illinois Association of Realtors. It’s the first time the state’s median price hasn’t decreased since June 2010.  “There’s no doubt that these are strong numbers to open the spring selling season,” said IAR President Loretta Alonzo. “To see such good sales numbers, coupled with a measure of price stability is encouraging news no matter what side of a real estate transaction you happen to be on.”  Illinois home sales posted the best March sales numbers since 2007. Home sales (including single-family homes and condominiums) in the month totaled 9,575, expanding 21.1% from 7,904 home sales a year earlier.  In the nine-county Chicago Primary Metropolitan Statistical Area, 6,590 homes were sold in March, up 23.8% from March 2011 sales of 5,323 homes. The median price in March was $151,850 in the Chicago PMSA, down 3.9% compared to a year earlier when it was $158,000.  “Sales volumes are up, time-on-the-market levels are down significantly from a year ago and prices appear to be stabilizing in Illinois although continuing to fall in Chicago,” said Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory at the University of Illinois.  “Further, in the last month there was a more even spread of sales prices compared to previous months where homes sold for less than $200,000 dominated the market,” Hewings added.

Hiring going up?

The National Association of Business Economics’ (NABE) industry survey found that 39 percent of respondents expect hiring will pick up in their companies and industries during the next six months, up from 27 percent in January.  Some 48 percent of respondents expect hiring will hold steady. While that is down from 64 percent in January, it still underscores the slow pace of recovery in the labor market following the 2007-2009 recession.  The survey was conducted between March 20 and April 10.  The NABE surveyed 55 members from companies and trade organizations. Not all responded to every question.  The uptick in demand for labor could be leading companies to offer bigger paychecks. Some 44 percent of respondents said wages and salaries were rising, up from 26 percent in January.  The poll also showed 63 percent of respondents expected U.S. gross domestic product to grow between 2.1 and 3 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier.  In the NABE’s previous poll released in January, 60 percent of respondents expected growth in that range.

Olick – Phoenix turns around

“Mike Ripson hasn’t built a home in three years, but he is about to. He has been sitting on one hundred sixty acres of land just outside Phoenix, Arizona, which he intends to divide into 121 one-acre lots.  ‘Now’s the time because we’ve been studying the marketplace, and we noticed beginning late last summer, early fall, that for homes priced less than $100,000, the market was becoming very tight,’ says Ripson, whose company is celebrating its ten year anniversary this week.  ‘Over the last several months that price point has increased such that today, homes priced less than 300,000 dollars, there’s less than a thirty-day supply in the marketplace,’ Ripson adds.  The supply of homes for sale in the Phoenix area is down 42 percent from a year ago, and foreclosures are down 52 percent, according to Michael Orr, of the Real Estate Center at ASU. That is bringing demand back to the builders.  Ripson is building about 40 miles outside of Phoenix in Wittmann, where there is less competition from foreclosures.  ‘To give you an example, within a five mile radius of where we sit here at Sonoran Acres, two months ago there were 18 homes on the market. Today there’s only one,’ says Ripson.  That’s why he re-opened his model home two weeks ago, and immediately saw high buyer traffic. He filed permits for two new homes, which he expects to sell in the next few weeks, thanks to his low, $200,000 price point. 

Closer in to Phoenix, prices are a bit lower, thanks to a higher supply of distressed properties, but those properties are selling fast as well, as large scale and institutional investors flood the market.  ‘I really think we’re at the top of the first inning in terms of this opportunity, and there will be ebbs and flows, ups and downs, people will come in and come out,’ says Justin Chang, principal at Colony Capital, which intends to invest over a billion dollars in distressed properties this year.  ‘But if you’re looking to build a business over the next five to seven years, this is the first inning, and we’re pretty excited about it,’ Chang goes on to say.  Colony has a history of investing in commercial real estate, but about a year ago they saw the potential as well in the single family rental market. They began building an infrastructure, and started buying homes last month from banks, the government and at auction.  They own 170 homes in three states so far and intend to close on fifty more this week. They spend $3,000 to $5,000 rehabbing each home and readying it to rent. Their team is entirely internal, which they say saves them extra costs.  ‘We’ve got our internal team doing acquisitions, we’ve got our internal team doing the rehab and we’ve got an internal team doing the property management. These are employees,’ explains Jay McKee, COO of Colony American Homes.  ‘We have 120 people on our payroll, W-2 employees, right now doing this work. A lot of other folks are doing it by outsourcing to third parties,’ says McKee. ‘We think by doing it in house, we can do it without markups.’

At a Colony home in Laveen, AZ, a suburb of Phoenix, workers were installing new appliances into a former foreclosure, as the old ones had been stolen. Nearby, a large development from Pulte Homes advertised new construction starting at $100,000. McKee is not concerned.  ‘There are people who cannot buy those homes, and those are our clients. The people that lost their home to foreclosure, are repairing their credit, or just decided they don’t want to be owners of properties anymore, they’re our client,’ confirms McKee.  Colony is considering a program to help their renters become buyers, much like some rent-to-own programs being considered by banks and the government. Colony has also been pre-approved to bid on Fannie Mae foreclosures through a new pilot program by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).  ‘We really understand what they want to accomplish, and we think we can be good partners,’ says Chang. ‘The pilot programs that are out there now are very smart, and I hope they are the first of many.  Colony is just one of a growing cadre of investment teams buying distressed real estate to rent. Chang expects to see returns of anywhere from 15 to 25 percent on his investment. Cash flow is almost immediate. He says he can rehab a home in three days and have it rented in less than a month. 85 percent of Colony’s homes are already rented.  As for competition in the space, which Chang calls a pioneering asset class, he’s not concerned.  ‘The opportunity is so vast that there’s room for a lot of companies,’ Chang says. ‘Eight to ten million homes will be foreclosed over next 3-5 years. That’s $800 billion in capital required. Fifty other firms could do it, and it still would be a drop in the bucket. We’re really just a small part of the game at this point.’”

Gas prices down

The average retail price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States declined for the first time since mid-December, dropping 5.44 cents over the past two weeks, the nationwide Lundberg Survey showed.  The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $3.9127 on April 20, from $3.9671 on April 6, according to the survey of gasoline retailers in the continental United States.  Still, drivers are paying 3.27 cents more for a gallon than they did a year ago.  “The decline began in California about six weeks ago,” survey editor Trilby Lundberg said, adding that prices peaked there on March 9 at $4.3162 and fell in subsequent surveys by nearly 15 percent to $4.1669.  Drivers in Chicago continued to pay the most at the pump — $4.26 per gallon — even though prices fell nearly 19 cents from April 6.  Prices in Tulsa, Oklahoma, remained lowest at $3.52 per gallon.  “If crude oil does not shoot back up we may find another price decline of 5-10 cents in the coming weeks,” Lundberg said.  Average diesel prices fell 4.15 cents to $4.1735 compared with two weeks earlier.

California Bay area sales up

March home sales in California’s Bay Area reached their highest level for the month in five years, the result of lower prices, low interest rates and an improving economy.  About 7,700 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area in March, up 34.9% from 5,702 in February, and up 9.1% from 7,051 a year earlier, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.  The February to March sales jump is normal for the season, but the latter’s sales count was the highest for the month since 8,317 homes were sold in 2007. Since 1988, March sales have ranged from 4,898 in 2008 to 12,645 in 2004, with an average of 8,812.  “This is the time of year when buying patterns usually start to normalize,” said DataQuick President John Walsh. “And while the changes we’re seeing are incremental, they’re incremental in a positive direction. That said, there’s a long way to go.”  The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the Bay Area in March totaled $358,000, a 10.2% increase from $325,000 in February, but down 0.6% from $360,000 in March 2011. 

To put these figures in perspective, the low point of the current real estate cycle fell to $290,000 in March 2009, while the peak rose to $665,000 in June/July 2007.  Statewide median home prices posted their first year-over-year increase in 16 months. The California Association of Realtors members said tight inventory (4.1 months) throughout the state and particularly robust sales in the San Francisco Bay area helped fuel the price increase.  “Two of the big issues to watch closely are how fast distressed properties are being put on the market, and the availability of, or lack of availability of, mortgage financing,” DataQuick’s Walsh said.  Distressed property sales, according to the firm, made up 44.3% of the resale market, down from 48.8% in February and 48.2% a year earlier.  Foreclosure resales accounted for 24.9% of resales in March, falling from 26.4% in February, and down from 31.5% in the year-ago period. Foreclosure resales averaged about 10% over the past 17 years.  Short sales made up 19.4% of Bay Area resales in the month, down from 22.4% in the previous month and up from 16.7% a year earlier.

Bank of America (BOA) says it’s making changes to its short-sale procedures that will shorten decision times on short sale offers to 20 days, down from 45 days or longer.  The new task flow in BOA’s short-sale management platform, Equator, will enable short-sale specialists to conduct tasks like document collection, valuations and underwriting simultaneously. When buyers walk, agents will have five days instead of 14 days to submit a backup offer.  Bank of America is requiring a new third-party authorization form for short sales initiated beginning April 14.  When the changes to Equator take effect Saturday, five documents will be required to process short sales initiated with an offer:

-  A purchase contract including buyer’s acknowledgment and disclosure.

-  HUD-1.

-  IRS Form 4506-T.

-  Bank of America short-sale addendum.

-  Bank of America third-party authorization form.

The Equator platform will be offline the night of Friday, April 13, and into early Saturday, April 14, to implement changes. Offer documents and supporting documents for all short sales submitted with an offer must be uploaded before Friday, April 13, or files may be declined.

Import prices up

Overall import prices rose 1.3% in March, the Labor Department said today. That was the biggest gain since April 2011.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected import prices to rise 0.8% last month. February’s data was revised to show a 0.1% decline instead of the previously reported 0.4% increase.  Stripping out petroleum, import prices increased 0.3% after falling 0.1% in February.  Higher costs for energy have fueled inflation in recent months but a still-weak jobs market has made it harder for businesses to raise other prices.  Data on Thursday is expected to show tame price pressures at a wholesale level, with producer prices seen rising 0.2% in March when stripping out food and energy.  But today’s report underscores the size of the price shock that is stinging Americans when they refuel their cars.  Last month, imported petroleum prices increased 4.3%, the biggest gain since April 2011.  Elsewhere, imported capital goods prices edged 0.2% higher after being flat in February. Imported motor vehicle prices climbed 0.3% after being unchanged in February.  The Labor Department report also showed export prices rose 0.8% last month, above analysts’ expectations for a 0.4% gain. Export prices increased 0.4% in February.

MBA – mortgage applications down

Mortgage applications decreased 2.4% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 6, 2012.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2.1% compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index decreased 3.1% from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.5% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1% compared with the previous week and was 5.5% higher than the same week one year ago.  There was no adjustment made for Good Friday.  The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 2.08%.  The four week moving average is up 2.19% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 3.45% for the Refinance Index.  The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased for the eighth consecutive week to 70.5% of total applications from 71.2% the previous week.  This is the lowest refinance share since July 29, 2011.  The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 5.5% of total applications from the previous week.

In March 2012, the share of applications for investment properties increased to 8.3% from 7.4% in February 2012.  However, the increase in investor share was driven by refinance applications for investment properties (which increased to 9.2% in March 2012 from 7.7% in February 2012), as the share of purchase applications for investment homes decreased over the month, from 6.1% in February 2012 to 5.7% in March 2012.  The investor share of purchase applications also decreased on a year over year basis, falling from 5.8% in March 2011 to its current level of 5.7% in March 2012.  While MBA tracks applications for second homes and investment properties separately, giving them the ability to distinguish between the two, the combined share of investment and second home applications for home purchase had the same directional components for the month of March 2012 – up on the whole and up for refinance applications last month, but down for home purchase activity.

Credit eases

Credit card lenders gave out 1.1 million new cards to borrowers with damaged credit in December, up 12.3% from the same month a year earlier, according to Equifax’s credit trends report released in March. These borrowers accounted for 23% of new auto loans in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from 17% in the same period of 2009, Experian, a credit scoring firm, said.  The banks are looking to make up the billions in fee income wiped out by regulations enacted after the financial crisis by focusing on two parts of their business — the high and the low ends — industry consultants say. Subprime borrowers typically pay high interest rates, up to 29%, and often rack up fees for late payments.  Some former banking regulators said they worried that this kind of lending, even in its early stages, signaled a potentially dangerous return to the same risky lending that helped fuel the credit crisis.  The lenders argue that they have learned their lesson and are distinguishing between chronic deadbeats and what some in the industry call “fallen angels,” those who had good payment histories before falling behind as the economy foundered.  Regulators with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which oversees the nation’s largest banks, said that as long as lenders adhered to strict underwriting standards and monitored risk, there was nothing inherently dangerous about extending credit to a wider swath of people.

Olick – debate over principal forgiveness

“The man at the center of the controversy over writing down mortgage principal on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans isn’t wavering. He may be reconsidering previous loss formulas, factoring in new government subsidies for principal write-down, but his opinion seems largely unchanged.  After beginning a speech this morning about all the so-called ‘Enterprises’ (Fannie and Freddie) have done to help millions of borrowers behind on their mortgage payments, and reminding listeners of his agency’s mandate to, ‘preserve and conserve the assets of the Enterprises,’ FHFA Acting Director Ed DeMarco took a left turn.  ‘There is another human element in this story that does not seem to receive much attention,’ DeMarco continued. ‘Clearly, many households got over-extended financially. Some accumulated debts they couldn’t afford when hours or wages were cut or jobs were lost. Others withdrew equity from their homes as house prices soared. Others bought houses at the peak of the market, often with little money down, perhaps in the belief house prices would continue to climb. Yet there are other Americans who did not do this thing.’ 

That last part really clinches what may eventually be his decision not to allow principal forgiveness, or to do it in an extremely narrow way. Yes, there are all kinds of formulas, and ‘net present value’ analyses that have been and continue to be run. There will be Enterprise gains offset by taxpayer losses, and there will be estimates of operational costs to implement a wide-ranging and necessarily transparent program. But in the end, less than one million borrowers would be helped, and for DeMarco, as for many others, it will come down to fairness and cheating.  ‘One factor that needs to be considered is the borrower incentive effects. That means, will some percentage of borrowers who are current on their loans, be encouraged to either claim a hardship or actually go delinquent to capture the benefits of principal forgiveness?’ asks DeMarco.  ‘This is a particular concern for the Enterprises because unlike other mortgage market participants that can pick and choose where principal forgiveness makes sense, the Enterprises must develop the program to be implemented by more than one thousand seller/servicers. In addition, the Enterprises will have to publicly announce this program and borrower awareness of the possibility of receiving a principal reduction modification will be heightened among Enterprise borrowers,’ he explains.

In other words, this opens the flood gates to cheating. The fact is that there are 11 million borrowers who currently owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth and yet the vast majority of them are still making monthly payments. Those who haven’t been paying have been delinquent, in some cases, for many years. The concern is that borrowers who are current on their loans might think it’s unfair that those who are not current are being rewarded and they are not. It would take a relatively small group of them strategically defaulting to offset the gains of any principal reduction program and turn it into a massive debacle.  ‘The far larger group of underwater borrowers who today have remained faithful to paying their mortgage obligations are the much greater contingent risk to housing markets and to taxpayers. Encouraging their continued success could have a greater impact on the ultimate recovery of housing markets and cost to the taxpayers than the debate over which modification approach offered to troubled borrowers is preferable,’ concludes DeMarco.  He is expected to announce a decision on principal reduction this month, but the analysts are already out:  ‘We see this as a strong political attack against principal reduction,’ says Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim partners.  The Obama administration is clearly pushing for it, with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner recently telling a Senate panel that there is a, ‘very strong economic case’ for principal write-down. He suggested DeMarco, ‘take another look at the math,’ which DeMarco is obviously doing. The trouble is, when it comes to today’s housing market and today’s borrowers, paying your mortgage, whatever it’s worth, is not always a simple equation.”

Oil to sink below $100?

Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index, said the charts suggest US futures may drop to $98 a barrel, and if that level is broken, momentum could accelerate taking the crude to as low as $87.  Oil prices contained below $100 would help alleviate the strain on the US consumer, offering some relief to the broader economy. A gallon of gasoline cost $3.94 at the pump last week, two cents higher than the previous week and 5.9% more expensive than a year earlier, MasterCard said in its weekly Spending Pulse report on Tuesday.  The catalyst for the move lower in oil prices may come later Wednesday when the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration releases weekly stockpiles data at 10:30 am ET.  The report is expected to show a 1.8 million barrels build in commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending April 6, driven by higher US imports of Saudi crude, according to analysts polled by Platts.

CoreLogic – April MarketPulse Report

CoreLogic today released its April CoreLogic MarketPulse report. The monthly economic publication provides insight into the current and future health of the US economic climate with particular focus on housing and mortgage metrics. Chief Economist Mark Fleming and Senior Economist Sam Khater authored the articles and commentary.  The April MarketPulse report:

-  Indicates “now is a good time to buy,” with housing affordability at its highest level ever (as of February 2012), and shows many of the key housing metrics are holding steady through the typically slow winter season.

-  Reports the single-family rental market is strong and vibrant with high and stable rents, low months’ supply and a healthy pace of signed rental leases. The report reveals what markets offer the best return for single-family rental investors. “The potential size of the rental market for REOs this year (and annually over the next few years) is over $100 billion dollars,” said Khater in the report.

-  Shows capitalization rates for single-family rental properties in 26 geographically diverse markets. Capitalization rates are the most common metric for determining the profitability of an investment property.

-  Provides a chart of the rent-to-mortgage ratio for Miami, Fla. The chart indicates the point in time when it became cheaper to buy than to rent, providing insight to investors buying and holding rental properties, as well as to new first-time home buyers.

For a complete copy of the April CoreLogic MarketPulse report, including a complete set of data and charts, visit http://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/MarketPulse_2012-April.pdf.

The $26 billion foreclosure settlement has finally been given the green light, making it possible for roughly two million of the nation’s hardest hit borrowers to see a significant reduction in their mortgage payments.  Agreed to between the nation’s five largest banks and attorneys general from 49 states and the District of Columbia, the deal settles charges of foreclosure processing abuses dating back to 2008.  The settlement, the details of which were first announced in early February, has been in the works for more than a year. Here’s what the banks agreed to and what borrowers can expect in the days ahead.

The banks and servicers have committed at least $17 billion to reduce principal for borrowers who 1) owe far more than their homes are worth 2) are behind on payments.  The amount of principal reduction will average about $20,000 per borrower in the cases of four of the banks. The Bank of America reductions will be even steeper, averaging $100,000 or more, according to spokesman Rick Simon.  Another $3.7 billion will go toward refinancing mortgages for borrowers who are current on their payments. This will enable them to take advantage of the historically low interest rates that are currently available.  The banks will pay $5 billion to the states and the federal government, the only hard money involved in the deal. Out of that fund will come payments of $1,500 to $2,000 to homeowners who lost their homes to foreclosure.

Other funds will be paid to legal aid and homeowner advocacy organizations to help individuals facing foreclosure or experiencing servicer abuses.  Another $1 billion will be paid directly by Bank of America to the Federal Housing Administration to settle charges that its subsidiary, Countrywide Financial, defrauded the housing agency.  In addition, the banks agreed to eliminate robo-signing altogether and to use proper and legal procedures when putting homeowners through the foreclosure process. They also agreed to end servicer abuses, like harassing delinquent borrowers for payments, and to include principal reductions more often in their mortgage modifications programs.

Iran sanctions to cost 25 cents a gallon

Twenty-five cents a gallon — that’s about how much some international energy experts say the tough US sanctions on Iran’s oil industry are costing Americans at the pump.  As US consumers cope with gas prices that are approaching an average of $4 a gallon, some international trade experts say the cost of the sanctions the US imposes — as in the case of the Iran measures — is something political leaders should discuss more openly. Instead, they say, most politicians act as if sanctions affect only the country targeted — something these experts say isn’t true.  Energy experts say it’s difficult to pinpoint precisely how much sanctions on Iran are costing consumers as they filter down to the gas pump. But Lucian Pugliaresi, president of the Energy Policy Research Foundation, a Washington nonprofit organization that studies energy economics, says it’s possible to make an estimate.  The sanctions the US and other countries have slapped on Iran’s energy sector and on its central bank (aimed at curtailing its oil exports) are costing Iran about 300,000 barrels a day in exports, Mr. Pugliaresi estimates. When added to other factors affecting the international oil market, that decrease in exports may have added about $10 to the current price of a barrel for crude, he says.  And that $10 increase translates roughly to about a 25-cent increase in the cost of a gallon of gas in the US, Pugliaresi says.

FHA delays collections rule

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) rescinded and will delay a rule that as of April 1 prohibited borrowers with more than $1,000 in disputed collections accounts from getting a federally backed mortgage, according to a notice sent late Friday.  FHA postponed the rule until July, and will take public comment from lenders, builders and others in the industry until then to clarify guidance.  “There is clearly a bigger ripple effect here than the Department of Housing and Urban Development might have anticipated going into this revision,” said Lisa Jackson, senior vice president of research and business development with John Burns Real Estate Consulting. “Any measure that impacts even 10% of sales is meaningful and our analysis shows it would be far greater in some markets.”  The FHA attempted to ease the original proposal, allowing borrowers to provide written documentation on “life event” disputed accounts with them, such as bills stemming from illness, divorce or unemployment in order to obtain an exemption.  Borrowers could previously show the lender they arranged a payment plan to settle other accounts too in order to qualify, including credit card and utility bills.  According to the alert sent Friday, the FHA ensured lenders they would not be in violation of the new rule for loans written between April 1 and April 8.  Until July, the old guidance will be put back into place.

Analysts from JPMorgan Chase said the rule would affect many first-time homebuyers the most, those most likely to carry such debt. The analysts estimated the rule could cut FHA demand by up to 20%, and the damage would affect homebuilders differently depending upon how much of their business hinged on these borrowers.  Many questioned the timing and the murkiness of the rule. The FHA previously said it adopted the rule in order to reduce default risk for newer books of business. Mortgages written during the housing bubble continue to haunt the agency. The FHA emergency Mutual Mortgage Insurance fund dropped to nearly 0.2% last year was in danger of needing a bailout from the Treasury Department if insurance premiums were not hiked and some lucrative settlements were not struck.  “There are two positives to this latest decision: HUD is willing to analyze the real implications of the housing market before they put a new measure in place, plus they are engaging feedback on the issue,” Jackson said.

Stock market on a cliff?

For the stock market, it was a triumphant first quarter. But for earnings growth, the past three months were just ho-hum.  Analysts are expecting earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index to decline 0.1% compared to a year ago, according to FactSet. It’s a tiny number but a significant turning point. Earnings growth was on a winning streak for the previous nine quarters. Year-over-year earnings growth has been at least 10% for all but the most recent period, when it was 6%.  The reasons for the expected slowdown range from global (a weak Europe hurts everybody) to mathematical (it’s hard to top double-digit quarters). Whatever the cause, the stagnation in earnings growth is a stark reminder that the economy’s problems are far from solved. Just three months ago, analysts were predicting 3% earnings growth for the first quarter.  We’ll soon see if the expectations are on target. Earnings season gets under way Tuesday when the aluminum producer Alcoa becomes the first major US company to release its first-quarter results.  Should this batch of earnings contain a lot of bad surprises, it could upend a stock market rally that pushed the S&P 500 index up 12% in the first three months of the year.

63% of HAMP-eligible second liens modified

Mortgage servicers started modifications on 63% of eligible second liens under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), according to Treasury Department data released Friday.  Through February, servicers participating in 2MP started 71,133 second-lien workouts of the 113,774 eligible loans. More than 15,600 of them have been fully extinguished. More than one-third of the second-lien mods occurred in California, according to the Treasury.  Of the $29.9 billion allocated for HAMP, roughly $2.7 billion is set aside for modifying second liens, according to the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program.  In January, the Treasury boosted incentives to investors who allow the workouts, doubling the pay from earlier in the program.  In order for a loan to be eligible for the second-lien program under HAMP, the servicer must receive notification of a match with a permanent first lien modification, according to program guidelines. The Treasury said roughly 315,000 HAMP first-lien mods have been matched to a second, but many are deemed ineligible because of a redefault on the first lien, an extinguishment before it entered HAMP.  In some cases, the Treasury said some homeowners with an eligible second decline to participate in 2MP.  Bank of America has nearly 40,000 eligible second-liens, the most of any servicer, and has started modifications on 62% of them.  Wells Fargo started workouts on 71% of its 16,300 eligible seconds, the highest percentage of any servicer.  Overall, servicers start modifications on between 2,000 and 5,000 second-liens under 2MP. The median monthly payment reduction was $161 for borrowers.  Servicers started 1.8 million trial modifications and completed 974,000 permanent workouts under the first-lien program through February.

As many as 1.25 million of America’s least cared for homes are headed for auction after a year-long probe into foreclosure practices kept them off the market.  Sales of repossessed properties probably will rise 25% this year from 1 million in 2011, according to Moody’s Analytics Inc. Prices for the homes could drop as much as 10% because they deteriorated as they were held in reserve during investigations by state officials resolved in February, according to RealtyTrac Inc. That month, 43% of foreclosures were delinquent for two or more years, from a 21% share in 2010, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. in Jacksonville, Florida.  “The longer a foreclosed home is in the mill, the bigger the losses,” said Todd Sherer, who manages distressed mortgage investments for Dalton Investments LLC, a Los Angeles-based hedge fund that oversees $1.5 billion. “We have a bulge of these properties coming through the system.”  Homes stockpiled less than a year sell for about 35% below the value set by lenders, according to a March 15 report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. At two years, the loss is close to 60%. A surge of cheap foreclosures may erode prices in the broader real estate market, even as the economy expands and residential building increases, said Karl Case, one of the creators of the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index.

Small business lending down

Lending to small business in the United States barely grew in February, supporting the view that economic growth was lackluster at the start of the year.  The Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index, which measures the overall volume of financing to US small businesses, edged up to 98.3 in February from 98.2 a month earlier, PayNet said today.  Borrowing rose 14% from a year earlier, the lowest 12-month growth rate since September.  “It’s pretty uninspired,” PayNet founder Bill Phelan said in an interview. “We see this faltering as a sign that there’s caution on the part of small business owners.”  Economists forecast US economic growth slowed in the first quarter to around 2 to 2.5%, down from a 3% annual rate in the previous quarter. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month growth needs to accelerate to bring down the country’s 8.3% jobless rate.  The December and January readings for PayNet’s lending index were both revised downward.  PayNet tracks borrowing by millions of small US businesses, and the index is correlated with changes in US gross domestic product a quarter or two in the future.

LPS – mortgage monitor

The latest Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (NYSE: LPS) shows that February foreclosure starts and sales reversed course, declining on a month-over-month basis after January’s sharp increase in activity. Foreclosure starts were down 15% from the month prior, with sales down 19% for the same period. Foreclosure sales decreased in both judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states, dropping 22 and 19% month-over-month respectively in February.  The LPS mortgage performance data showed that, while January’s increase in foreclosure sales was most pronounced in loans held on bank portfolios, the February drop was broad-based across all investor classes. Even accounting for the decrease in foreclosure sales, national pipeline ratios continue to decline off their peaks, but still differ sharply by region. As of the end of February, the average pipeline ratio in judicial states stood at 84 months, as compared to 33 months in non-judicial states. Pipeline ratios continue to be most pronounced in the Northeast, particularly in New York and New Jersey, where average pipelines remain at 846 and 772 months respectively.  The February mortgage performance data also showed that continued declines in new problem loan rates support improved delinquency rates nationwide. Seasonal patterns are also evident in cures from delinquency, with increased cure rates across almost all categories of delinquent loans. Additionally, first-time foreclosures remained stable as repeat foreclosures saw an 8% month-over-month decrease. At the same time however, new mortgage originations remain depressed, continuing a four-month decline.

As reported in LPS’ First Look release, other key results from LPS’ latest Mortgage Monitor report include: 

Total US loan delinquency rate:​  7.57 %​

Month-over-month change in delinquency rate:​  -5.0 %​

Total US foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate:​  4.13 %​

Month-over-month change in foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate:​  -0.5 %​

States with highest percentage of non-current* loans:​  FL, MS, NV, NJ, IL​

States with the lowest percentage of non-current* loans:​  MT, AK, WY, SD, ND​

 *Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a% of active loans in that state.
Notes:
(1) Totals are extrapolated based on LPS Applied Analytics’ loan-level database of mortgage assets.
(2) All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand.

Auto sales up

The auto industry looks set to ride the appeal of smaller cars to its best monthly performance in almost four years.  The consulting firm LMC Automotive predicts US sales of new cars and trucks reached 1.37 million last month, up 6% from March of 2011 and the highest number since May of 2008. Industry analysts say sales could run at an annual rate of 14.1 million to 14.5 million vehicles, continuing a strong performance in January and February.   Some companies could break sales records.  Chrysler Group was the first automakers to report sales Tuesday. Its US sales jumped 34% in March on strong sales of Fiat small cars and Chrysler sedans.  It was the best month for the company in four years as consumers grow confident enough in the economic recovery to buy new cars.  Chrysler says Fiat sales hit 3,712, compared to just 500 last March when the car was first on the market. The subcompact Fiat is growing in popularity as new dealerships open and fuel prices rise.  Sales of Chrysler’s 200 and 300 sedans each doubled over last March. Both cars have recently been revamped and have better fuel economy than previous models, which is attracting new buyers.  Jeep brand sales rose 36% on the strength of the Jeep Grand Cherokee.  Incentives on trucks also helped lure buyers in March. Chrysler said its Ram pickup sales were up 23% over last March. General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. also were expected to report big gains in truck sales.

Olick – housing “paralysis?”

“In an unexpected reversal, both newly started foreclosures and finalized foreclosures dropped precipitously in February.  So-called foreclosure starts fell 15.2% month-to-month. Foreclosure sales, the final stage of the process (not sales of already bank-owned properties) fell 19% month-to-month, according to a new report from Lender Processing Services.  Most had expected both starts and sales to ramp up, following the $25 billion dollar settlement between five of the nation’s largest banks and state attorneys general and federal agencies over the now infamous ‘robo-signing’ scandal. The drop in finalized foreclosures was nationwide, in states where a judge is involved in the process as well as in non-judicial states.  ‘For both foreclosure starts and sales, we’re finding that so far, the sustained increase isn’t there, though we do see sporadic ‘bursts’ of activity,’ says Herb Blecher of LPS Applied Analytics. ‘These are sometimes focused around particular investors (i.e., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac foreclosure starts) and may reflect seasonal trends, loss-mitigation activities, legislative impacts, or other operational factors. We can’t say specifically what those bursts correlate to, because we just don’t see that in the data.’

This sudden stall, however, if prolonged, could lead to an overall drop in home sales, given that foreclosures are such a large share of the market. That has at least one well-known analyst warning of more problems ahead for housing.  ‘Through relentless meddling with delusions that ‘foreclosures are bad,’ they effectively destroyed the macro housing market,’ says California-based mortgage analyst Mark Hanson, referring to government intervention in the housing market. ‘Contrary to popular thinking, the eradication of foreclosures will lead this housing market into paralysis, not recovery.’  Hanson claims that the lack of ready and available distressed supply, ‘portends big trouble’ for the overall housing market, but more pointedly for California, Nevada and Arizona, where distressed supply and sales are the bulk of the market.  ‘It will soon become apparent that ‘foreclosure prevention’ was one of the biggest housing and finance policy blunders of all time. That’s because it circumvented interest rate policy in part aimed at household de-leveraging, kicked the problem forward and spread it out over many more years.’  The drop in foreclosure starts and sales is likely due to the big banks trying to modify more loans under the settlement agreement, and in some cases dropping loan principal. Some of the modifications, claims Hanson, are even more ‘exotic’ than the loans borrowers defaulted from in the first place, like 2% interest-only loans, 40 year amortizations, 33% forbearance, and five-year fixed rate loans. This as more than 11 million borrowers (22% of homeowners with a mortgage) owe more on that mortgage than their homes are currently worth, so-called ‘underwater.’  ‘Legacy borrowers are now more levered than ever,’ worries Hanson.

Distressed sales, which include foreclosures and short sales (when the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage) now make up just over one third of all existing home sales nationally, according to the National Association of Realtors, but more than half of all sales in California and other states hardest hit by the housing crash. Investors are rushing in to buy up all these properties, hoping to cash in on what is fast becoming an historic rental market.  In an effort to entice large investors to buy more properties and rent them out, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, recently launched a pilot program, offering 2,500 foreclosed properties on the GSE’s books for sale in bulk discount deals. Bank of America also just announced a program to turn troubled borrowers into renters, offering deeds in lieu of foreclosure to borrowers who would like to stay in their homes.  Both bulk sales and an intensified drive to modify more troubled loans will drain the supply of distressed properties on the market, leaving little for individual investors and first time home buyers with cash. They had been helping to put a floor on home prices, by increasing competition in the space. With the non-distressed market still running far behind normal volumes, a dramatic surge in non-distressed sales would have to occur to make up for the drop in distressed sales.  Given how many homeowners are stuck in place due to negative equity, and with home prices still falling annually, not to mention still-weak consumer sentiment in housing, that surge is highly unlikely.”

Irony – Obama warns against “radical” GOP budget

In an election-year pitch to middle-class voters, President Barack Obama is denouncing a House Republican budget plan as a “Trojan horse,” warning that it represents “an attempt to impose a radical vision on our country” that would hurt the pocketbooks of working families.  Obama, in a speech to newspaper executives, is sharply criticizing a $3.5 trillion budget proposal pushed by Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., which passed on a near-party-line vote last week and has been embraced by GOP presidential hopefuls. The plan has faced fierce resistance from Democrats, who say it would gut Medicare, slash taxes for the wealthy and lead to deep cuts to crucial programs such as aid to college students and highway and rail projects.  “It’s a Trojan horse. Disguised as deficit reduction plan, it’s really an attempt to impose a radical vision on our country,” Obama said in excerpts of his speech released Tuesday. “It’s nothing but thinly veiled social Darwinism.”  Ryan’s proposal aims to lower the deficit and the size of government while offering sharply lower tax rates in return for eliminating many popular tax breaks.

WSJ – write-downs get a new push

The Obama administration’s offer to subsidize write-downs of mortgage-loan balances for some heavily indebted homeowners is putting the federal regulator who oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a bind by forcing the agency to rethink its long-held opposition.  For years, the federal regulator overseeing the taxpayer-backed mortgage-finance giants has resisted calls to have the firms cut loan balances, often referred to as principal write-downs. But in recent weeks he has come under intense pressure to change course, especially now that the US Treasury is offering to split the cost.  In an interview this past week, Edward DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said while he’s still skeptical about the benefit of principal reductions, “we said all along, if money came from another source, we’d have to reconsider our position.” He says his agency will make a decision by mid-April.  The offer by the Treasury Department to help pay for principal write-downs has put Mr. DeMarco in a tough spot: He’s consistently argued that his mandate to reduce losses at the firms means putting the narrow interests of the firms ahead of broader housing market policy. The Treasury’s subsidies could reduce those costs, but don’t change his underlying doubts about whether principal reductions are good policy.

Fannie and Freddie back roughly half of the 11 million mortgages where borrowers owe more than the homes are worth. But any principal forgiveness program would be targeted to a small percentage of underwater borrowers—those owing at least 125% of the value of their property and who are behind on their mortgage payments. Economists who have studied the issue say the proposal could reach about 300,000 homeowners.  The newly offered incentives come from unspent housing-aid funds, which in turn came from the $700 billion bank rescue that Congress passed in 2008. The upshot is that even if write-downs reduce the cost to Fannie and Freddie, they don’t necessarily change taxpayers’ costs.  “It’s like overdrawing one account and pulling out a fresh new checkbook,” said Tim Rood, a former Fannie Mae executive and managing director at the Collingwood Group, a housing-finance consultancy.

JP Morgan exec is fined $750,000

One of London’s most prominent bankers was fined 450,000 pounds ($720,000) on Tuesday for passing on inside information in a case that will embarrass his employer JP Morgan Cazenove and which marks a new resolve by authorities to target high-profile figures.  Top dealmaker Ian Hannam resigned to fight the fine imposed by the Financial Services Authority in relation to 2008 emails that contained information about a his client, oil company Heritage Oil.  The former special forces soldier and engineer is the fifth person to be fined this year by the British regulator, which had previously been accused of ineffectiveness.  JP Morgan informed staff in an internal memo of Hannam’s resignation from his position as JP Morgan’s Global Chairman of Equity Capital Markets, after two decades at the firm.  The case is a fresh blow for the reputation of investment banking, as Hannam joins the list of big names targeted by the regulator, which is seeking to clamp down on market abuse and insider dealing.  Hannam’s fine, detailed in a decision notice dated February 27, is among the largest levied against an individual for market abuse, though it is dwarfed by the 3.6 million pounds hedge fund investor David Einhorn incurred earlier this year over trading abuses.

U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) unveiled a new plan yesterday to improve the housing market by addressing “short sale” home sales.  Brown’s legislation, the Prompt Notification of Short Sale Act, addresses the lengthy closing process that often comes with a short sale—which can last months—by requiring banks to respond in a timely manner when prospective buyers are attempting to purchase such homes.  “For most buyers, short sales are anything but. The seemingly endless waiting game associated with short sales represents a dangerous drag on our housing market,” Brown said. “If we’re going to recover from the housing crisis, we need to make it easier for qualified candidates to purchase homes. This commonsense legislation helps prospective home buyers and distressed homeowners alike, while helping to rebuild our neighborhoods and to foster long-term economic growth.”

“Too often during the short sale process, there is a lengthy break in communication between the loan servicer and the buyer of the short sale property. This breakdown deprives buyers notice of whether or not their offer has been accepted, rejected or countered—and that means that homes aren’t being sold, even when there is a demand,” Brown continued. “This lapse in communication makes it harder for families to move to Cleveland and help us build our community, and potential buyers are left waiting or even walking away in frustration. This bill is aimed at improving communication between banks and homebuyers—and keeping homes in our neighborhoods occupied. Our economic recovery depends on our housing recovery.”  The goal of The Prompt Notification of Short Sale Act is to improve the process for buyers considering a “short-sale” home. Presently, it can take many months to get any kind of response from banks or other loan servicers to short sale offers. Brown’s legislation requires a written response of an acceptance, rejection, counter offer, or the need for an extension of time within 75 days of a request from a homeowner—thereby providing both buyers and sellers of short sale properties with predictability during a real estate transaction.

Banks set to cut $1 trillion

Investment banks are to shrink their balance sheets by another $1 trillion or up to 7 percent globally within the next two years, says a report that foresees a shake-up of market share in the industry.  Higher funding costs and increased regulatory pressure to bolster capital will force wholesale banks also to cut 15 percent, or up to $0.9 trillion, of assets that are weighted by risk, a joint report by Morgan Stanley and consultants Oliver Wyman predicts.  In addition, banks are expected take out $10 billion to $12 billion in costs by reducing pay, firing employees and paring back investments in areas that are no longer considered core.  “It is really decision time for investment banks,” said Huw van Steenis, analyst at Morgan Stanley. “The market underestimates the degree to which banks will rationalize their portfolios of activities.”  The report says investment banks have taken out about 7 percent of capacity last year and will cut up to another 10th in the next two years.  Reacting to regulatory pressure and the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, a number of banks have embarked on heavy cost-cutting in the past six months, shedding staff and assets and closing down or selling whole units.

Negative equity gap nears $4 trillion

The U.S. housing market contains a nearly $4 trillion-dollar negative equity hole, according to Williams Emmons, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.  Emmons made that statement while speaking at Housing Wire’s 2012 REthink Symposium.  The Fed Bank economist said it would take $3.7 trillion, much more than the $25 billion mortgage servicing settlement and other federal housing initiatives, to get homeowners with mortgage debt back to preferred loan-to-value ratio levels.

Emmons’ data estimates the average LTV for those with mortgage debt is currently 94.3%.  That compares to preferred LTV levels among mortgage debt holders of 58.4%, which was the average struck among mortgaged homeowners in the period stretching from 1970 to 2005. Emmons told the crowd there is no easy way to fill that gap, and the deep hole is hardly discussed among the media and policymakers.  “We are sort of stuck in this,” he told the crowd. “It’s a sweat box we’re in, and we can’t get out. We are not talking about this very much … it’s just too ugly.”  He added, “It is like the debt that is outstanding is crushing the equity that is there.”

Emmons said the only viable option to narrow the gap is letting home prices fall until they eventually reach levels that entice buyers, bringing private capital back in. A home-price boom or a government bailout would help, of course, but both those scenarios are unlikely.  At this point, home price appreciation would need to rise 62% to narrow the gap to the ideal LTV level, Emmons said. Significant government intervention also is unlikely given the fact it would take a $3.7 trillion bailout, or 24% of GDP, to narrow the gap, according to Emmons’ data.  He says that amount makes other federal initiatives launched to band-aid the housing market so far look like “peanuts” in comparison.  With that in mind, the only alternative is that we have “millions of weak homeowners exit, replaced by new private owners with equity to recapitalize the housing sector.”  Emmons said that option will still be painful since he believes another reduction in home prices is needed to attract new buyers.  “The asset class is not priced attractively yet,” Emmons said. “You need to get the value down to where it looks like a screaming buy.”  Emmons in his report said with the assumption that another 20% decline in national home prices is required to bring in new buyers, the amount of mortgage debt that must be eliminated then is $4.97 trillion, or 50% of current face value.

Recovery?  Really?

Despite signs of an improvement for the U.S. economy, Steve Forbes, Chairman of Forbes Media says the recovery isn’t as vigorous as it should be and claims there’s a lot of disbelief about the turnaround.  A weak dollar, higher taxes and regulations from Obamacare and Dodd-Frank are holding back growth, Forbes, a former Republican candidate in the U.S. presidential primaries in 1996 and 2000, told CNBC Monday.  “We had a very vigorous recovery from the severe recession in the 1980s,” Forbes said. “The recovery – this time – I don’t think it’s going to benefit the President very much, is the fact that it’s not a vigorous one.”  The rate of growth of 3 to 4 percent, coming off a severe recession should be 6-8 percent, he added. The end of Bush-era tax cuts on capital gains and dividends will also rein in the economy’s expansion.   ”If nothing is done, dividends go from 15 percent to 45 percent, capital gains from 15 percent to 24 percent,” Forbes said. “Now, Congress will be in a mood to do something, but the President is not going to let those tax cuts of 10 years ago remain for upper income earners.”

Last week a former Federal Reserve Governor, Randall Kroszner said that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was right to be worried about a false dawn. Bernanke had told CNBC in the same week that there is some improvement in the economy, but there is still “a long way to go.”  New York Fed President William Dudley also said while recent data on the U.S. economy have been a bit more positive, suggesting that the recovery may finally be somewhat ‘firmer’, economic activity is not yet strong or sustained enough to put a dent in unemployment numbers.  Forbes agrees, adding that the Fed’s low interest rates and Administration’s policies had sought to weaken the dollar, leading to a negative impact on the domestic economy.  “That’s an illusion, what you gain, whatever you do to try and manipulate exports, you lose on what you do in your domestic economy: hurting investment and the like and it also distorts investment, which is just beginning to recover,” Forbes said.

GSE principal reduction soon?

Freddie Mac CEO Charles “Ed” Haldeman gave a strong signal Friday that new incentives from the Treasury Department may be enough to start principal reduction on mortgages backed by the government-sponsored enterprises.  In January, the Treasury said it would triple incentive payments to mortgage investors who allow principal reduction in Home Affordable Modification Program workouts. The payouts ranged between six and 21 cents to the investors for each dollar forgiven under HAMP, but that will grow to between 18 and 63 cents.  “I have to say recently the Treasury sweetened the program and tremendously increased the incentive payments in their offer to us,” Haldeman said at HousingWire’s REThink Symposium. “We will reevaluate that to see what may be in our economic best interest. If there are very large incentive payments — which could be 50% of what you could write down — it may be in our economic self-interest to participate in that.”

There are currently 11.1 million borrowers who owe more on their mortgage than the house is worth, according to CoreLogic. Of that, estimates show roughly 3.3 million of those mortgages belong to Fannie and Freddie.  The GSEs and their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, long shunned principal reduction. Their biggest fear is moral hazard — that borrowers who are still current on their underwater loan would strategically default in order to get principal written down.  “We thought principal reduction could have unintended, secondary consequences on other borrowers seeking the same kind of reduction,” Haldeman said.  One previous analysis showed the GSEs would take significant credit losses if a wide-scale program was put in place. A new analysis from the FHFA, which would cover the new HAMP incentives, is expected to be released in the coming weeks.  NPR and ProPublica reported Friday the analysis will show a reversal, that principal reduction will work for the GSEs under the new version of HAMP.

“As we complete the review, the public should understand that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue to offer a broad array of assistance to troubled borrowers and have continued to implement HARP 2.0 to enhance refinancing opportunities for underwater borrowers,” FHFA said in a statement.  Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told a House panel this week he and FHFA Acting Director Edward DeMarco were working out their differences.  Haldeman, who announced in October he would leave his post at Freddie, said the principal reduction verdict will ultimately reside with DeMarco, but he isn’t operating on his own.  “At the end of the day, we are in conservatorship, and he is the conservator. But the way it works on a day-to-day basis is that it’s a very close collaboration. It is extremely rare that I had a different point of view than Ed DeMarco,” Haldeman said.

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Fed to fine banks

The Federal Reserve says that it plans to fine eight additional US bank holding companies for improperly foreclosing on homeowners. The financial firms — EverBank, Goldman Sachs Group, HSBC Holdings PLC, PNC Financial Services Group, MetLife, OneWest Bank, SunTrust Banks and US Bancorp — were not part of last month’s settlement over alleged foreclosure abuses. Suzanne G. Killian, a senior associate director at the Federal Reserve, called the fines “appropriate” during a congressional hearing in Brooklyn, New York. Killian offered few details about the size of the fines or when they will be levied. The nation’s five biggest lenders — Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Ally Financial — last month agreed to a $25 billion settlement with state and federal government agencies last month after a 16-month probe. As part of that settlement, the five banks agreed to reduce mortgages for about 1 million homeowners. They also will pay into a fund that will send $2,000 to 750,000 homeowners who were improperly foreclosed upon. Separately, government regulators last April ordered 14 mortgage lenders and servicers to reimburse homeowners who were improperly foreclosed upon. Since then, letters have been sent to 4.3 million borrowers who were at risk of foreclosure during 2009 and 2010. The deadline for borrowers to seek money under the orders is July 31. So far, nearly 122,000 homeowners have asked for an auditor to review their foreclosures.

North America the next middle east for oil?

Increased production of energy from a number of sources including deepwater drilling, natural gas exploration and Canada’s oil sands could make North America the next Middle East, according to a new report from Citigroup. The bank estimates that total North American energy production will rise from 15.4 million barrels per day in 2011 to almost 26.6 million barrels per day by 2020, boosting gross domestic product (GDP) and creating ripple effects throughout the economy. Citigroup analysts say the US will see large gains in oil production from deepwater drilling, while Mexico will begin to reverse recent declines in output. Production of shale gas liquids will increase by 3.8 million barrels per day by 2020. The report says this new production would amount to about 7% of additional global production, “a higher growth rate than OPEC can sustain.” That increase in energy supply will also be accompanied with a decline in demand. US consumption of oil products has fallen by 2 million barrels per day since its peak in 2005, and the Citi report says demand will fall by another 2 million barrels per day over the next decade.

Citgroup expects the shift in energy supply and demand to increase real GDP by between 2 and 3.3%. It also estimates that some 550,000 new jobs will be created directly in the oil and gas extraction sector by 2020. An additional 2.2 to 2.3 million new jobs will be created from the resulting economic stimulus effects of new production by 2020. In its analysis, Citigroup acknowledges infrastructure bottlenecks and legislation that blocks exports of crude oil of US origin. It also points out that new environmental regulations could prevent the scenario from playing out. But the analysts point out the surge in energy production could be game-changing. “It would not only improve incomes and create jobs, but also improve national energy security and reverse perennial current account deficits.”

MBA – mortgage applications down

Mortgage applications decreased 7.4% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 16, 2012. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 7.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7.1% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 9.3% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.0% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.6% compared with the previous week and was 1.9% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 2.79%. The four week moving average is up 3.25% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 4.31% for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 73.4% of total applications, the lowest since July 2011, from 75.1% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.6% from 5.8% of total applications from the previous week. “With the rate increase last week, refinances are obviously slowing, and the refinance share at 73% is down to its lowest level since last July. With rate/term refinances falling as we go forward, HARP will be a bigger percentage of refinances but will be more concentrated in certain states,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Senior Vice President of Research and Education. Brinkmann continued, “Some of the largest institutions are reporting that the HARP share of their refinances remained at about 30% last week, but HARP volume is not equal across the country. The states that I started referring to years ago as the sand states that had the worst delinquencies we now should start calling the HARP states for mortgage refinances. We saw big state-level differences in refinance applications for February over January: Florida was up 49%, Arizona was up 61%, and Nevada was up 71%. Refinances in the rest of the country were generally flat or even down. For example, Texas had no change, Colorado was down 3%, Connecticut was up only 2%, and Virginia was up 1%. HARP clearly is a driving force in those states that saw the most defaults and the biggest drops in home equity.”

The average loan size of all loans for home purchase in the US was $225,463 in February 2012, up from $216,888 in January. The average loan size for a refinance was $222,048, down from $227,563 in January. The largest purchase loans were made in the Pacific region at $ 324,606. The largest refinance loans were also made in the Pacific region at $ 305,949.

US exempts EU from sanctions

The United States on Tuesday exempted Japan and 10 EU nations from financial sanctions because they have significantly cut purchases of Iranian crude oil, but left Iran’s top customers China and India exposed to the possibility of such steps. The decision is a victory for the 11 countries, whose banks have been given a six-month reprieve from the threat of being cut off from the US financial system under new sanctions designed to pressure Iran over its nuclear program. The list did not, however, include China and India, Iran’s top two crude oil importers, nor US allies South Korea and Turkey, which are among the top-10 consumers of Iranian oil. A US official held up Japan’s estimated 15-22% cut in oil purchases from Iran in the second half of last year as an example for other nations, saying it did so after the “tragedy” of the earthquake that caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster. “Japan was a model,” State Department Special Envoy and Coordinator for International Energy Affairs Carlos Pascual told lawmakers. “If Japan was able to do what it did … that should be an example to others that they could potentially do more.”

Olick – rising rates may not hurt housing

“It was barely a few weeks ago that mortgage rates were sitting at record lows. The idea of rates over 4% on the 30-year fixed seemed a distant memory. And here they are now at 4.05% on the Bankrate.com overnight, thanks to the recent rise in Treasury yields. The housing market, it seems, just can’t catch a break. Or can it? As the economy improves, the job market improves, and that is a key driver for housing. But on the flip side, as the economy improves, investors finally crawl out of the Treasury bunkers, driving yields higher, and mortgage rates generally follow the 10-year Treasury. ‘We will definitely see a freeze up in refi’s immediately but the decision on a purchase still won’t be impacted until rates get at least to 4.5% I believe,’ says Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak. ‘Assuming a $200k mortgage, going from 4 to 4.5% in mortgage rate adds about $60 per month to one’s payments, and while an extra $700 per year matters, I’m not sure if it’s a deal breaker.’

While rates have moved a good quarter of a% in the past few weeks, most analysts don’t think they’ll go much higher. ‘Mortgage rates were too high anyway, relative to the 10-year Treasury, so I don’t think you will see a parallel shift,’ says FBR’s Paul Miller, who spoke to several bankers today. They told him mortgage volume is good, which helps keep rates competitive. ‘But it does take time for this stuff to flow through the markets,’ he adds. And then there could be one other phenomenon, as described by Freddie Mac’s chief economist Frank Nothaft: ‘When rates tick up, you may see some potential home buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines, suddenly they may get up, as they are concerned that maybe this is the beginning of a trend, and they don’t want to miss out on these 60-year low mortgage rates. In the near term it can encourage buyers.’”

Oil up to $107 per barrel

Oil prices rose to near $107 a barrel Wednesday after a report showed US crude supplies fell unexpectedly, a sign demand may be improving in the world’s largest economy. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark oil for May delivery was up 49 cents to $106.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell $2.49 to settle at $106.07 per barrel in New York on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia said it could pump more oil to cover any shortages. In London, Brent crude for May delivery was up 27 cents at $124.39 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange. The American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that crude inventories fell 1.4 million barrels last week, breaking a two-month trend of growing supplies. Analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., had predicted an increase of 2.1 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell 1.4 million barrels last week while distillates rose 600,000 barrels, the API said.

LPS – first look report
Lender Processing Services, Inc. (NYSE: LPS), a leading provider of integrated technology, data and analytics to the mortgage and real estate industries, reports the following “first look” at February 2012 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database of nearly 40 million mortgage loans.

Total US loan delinquency rate:7.57%
Month-over-month change in delinquency rate: -5.0%
Year-over-year change in delinquency rate: -14.0%
Total U.S foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate: 4.13%
Month-over-month change in foreclosure presale inventory rate: -0.5%
Year-over-year change in foreclosure presale inventory rate: -0.3%
Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure: (A) 3,781,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:1,722,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory: (B) 2,065,000
Number of properties that are 30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure: (A+B) 5,846,000
States with highest percentage of non-current* loans: FL, MS, NV, NJ, IL
States with the lowest percentage of non-current* loans: MT, AK, WY, SD, ND

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a% of active loans in that state.
Notes:
(1) Totals are extrapolated based on LPS Applied Analytics’ loan-level database of mortgage assets
(2) All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand
The company will provide a more in-depth review of this data in its monthly Mortgage Monitor report, which includes an analysis of data supplemented by in-depth charts and graphs that reflect trend and point-in-time observations.

Money printing going out of style

The era of quantitative easing—a process by which central banks buy assets such as government bonds to inject funds in the markets—may be coming to an end, according to a survey of fund managers. According to a March survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, investors are more upbeat about the future and the prospects for growth and they no longer expect further quantitative easing measures to be taken by the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank. In the survey, 28% of fund managers said they expected the global economy to strengthen in the next 12 months, up from 11% in February. This was the highest reading since March last year. But the report did find that fund managers still see sovereign debt as the biggest tail risk to the global recovery. Investors do foresee higher inflation, with a net 13% expecting it to rise in the coming year.

WSJ – housing mixed

US home building fell in February, but permits for new construction reached their highest levels in nearly 3½ years, reflecting housing’s uneven and protracted recovery. Home construction decreased 1.1% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 698,000, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Construction of single-family homes, which makes up more than 70% of housing starts, fell by 9.9% – the largest drop in a year. Meanwhile, multifamily homes with at least two units, a volatile part of the market, posted a 21.1% gain. Still, January’s figures were raised to 706,000 starts overall, a 3.7% improvement from December and the highest level since October 2008.

In a positive sign for future construction, the February data showed new building permits rose by 5.1% from a month earlier to an annual rate of 717,000 – also the highest level since October 2008. The housing sector has been healing slowly after prices collapsed more than five years ago. A National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) report on Monday showed that US home builders’ confidence in the market held steady in March at the highest level since 2007. “The level of activity still remains far short of the pace implied by the NAHB index so we look for further gains over the next few months in both sales and starts,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics. “Housing will add to growth all year, and beyond.”

But Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist at MFR Inc., said that so far, the home builders association’s level of confidence hasn’t been matched by actual construction. “Our view remains that single-family housing starts are in a long-term bottoming process but that an enormous overhang of existing single-family home supply will prevent sharp gains in single-family starts in the near to medium term,” Mr. Shapiro said. NAHB said Monday that its members continue to face obstacles, including tight credit for both builders and buyers and a large inventory of inexpensive, foreclosed homes in many markets. The Commerce Department data showed that housing starts were mixed across four US regions. The Northeast posted a 12.3% decline, while starts in the West dropped 5.9% last month. Starts rose 3% in the Midwest and 1.5% in the South. Actual housing starts, calculated without seasonal adjustments, grew to 48,100 in February from 46,500 in January. Lumber and commodities markets watch those numbers closely to gauge demand.
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Chris McLaughlin

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About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
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