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Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 28,2011

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Foreclosures down, short sales up in 2011

While data on the number of loans either seriously delinquent or in the foreclosure process suggested that an increase in the number of residential properties lost to foreclosure this year was a “slam dunk,” incoming data suggest that in fact the numbers will be down significantly from 2010, and will in fact probably come in at the lowest level since 2007!  Short sales and DILs, in contrast are likely to be up in 2011 compared to 2010, at least according to estimates derived from Hope Now data. Unfortunately, Hope Now data doesn’t allow for an estimate of SS/DILs by occupancy type, and HN didn’t start releasing data that allowed one to derive estimated short sales/DILs until early 2010. Given the number of loans either seriously delinquent or in the process of foreclosure at the beginning of the year, the number of completed foreclosure sales in 2011 is almost absurdly low, reflecting the complete screw-up of the mortgage servicing industry, and the resulting dramatic slowdown in foreclosure resolutions. As of the end of October, 2011 LPS estimated that there were 1.759 million seriously delinquent loans with the average number of days delinquent at 388 (compared to 192 days in January 2008), and there were 2.210 million loans in the foreclosure process that had been on average delinquent for 631 days.

Consumer confidence surges

The New York-based Conference Board says Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index rose almost 10 points to 64.5, up from a revised 55.2 in November. Analysts had expected 59.  The surge builds on another big increase in November, when the index rose almost 15 points from the month before.  Improving confidence is in line with retail reports of a decent holiday shopping season. Still, the December confidence reading is below the 90 level that indicates an economy on solid footing.  Economists watch the confidence numbers closely because consumer spending — including items like health care — accounts for about 70% of US

WSJ – 2011 in commercial real estate

For the commercial real-estate market, 2011 was a year that began with a boom and ended with a question mark.  After two years in the doldrums, commercial real estate came to life in the first half of 2011. Values rose in top markets, deal activity increased and financing became more plentiful. But the market hit the brakes in the summer when turmoil in Europe threatened to stall an already-shaky economic recovery. As the year comes to an end, the outlook continues to look uncertain.  But along the way in 2011, there were ups and downs, winners and losers and tears and high-fives. Here is a look at a few standouts:

Biggest Fight

Three years after taking apartment company Archstone private in a $22 billion leveraged buyout, the three owners—Bank of America Corp., Barclays PLC, and the estate of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.—spent much of 2011 fighting over how to unwind their soured investment. Now the two banks are trying to sell half their stake to Sam Zell’s Equity Residential, Archstone’s largest competitor, which wants to control all the property. This is unwelcome news to the Lehman estate, which is trying—in court and by raising funds—to block the purchase.

Worst Tenant-Landlord Relations

This fall, giant office landlord Brookfield Office Properties Inc. became the unexpected and extremely reluctant host of the Occupy Wall Street movement in Lower Manhattan. Thanks to its ownership of Zuccotti Park, the small plaza near Wall Street, the firm’s executives wished the movement had chosen to make a home base in a space they didn’t control. Still, they deferred to City Hall, waiting until the mayor gave his okay until they and the New York Police Department put an end to the occupation.

Most-Unexpected Comebacks

Two high-profile names associated with the boom-turned-bust of a few years prior reemerged earlier this year. New York developer Harry Macklowe, who lost his extensive office holdings in 2008 after a poorly timed $7 billion attempt to double down on his portfolio, led ventures to buy and convert two rental apartment buildings on Manhattan’s Upper East Side, totaling over $400 million in investment. Meanwhile Mark Walsh, Lehman Brothers’ head of real estate, whose insatiable appetite for commercial property during the boom helped sink the investment bank, reemerged. His Silverpeak Real Estate Partners won control of the $1.1 billion US real-estate portfolio of Dubai Investment Group.

Off the Beaten Path

While investors spent much of the year climbing over each other to buy apartments and top office towers in major cities, Blackstone Group LP waded deep in the muck of the commercial-property sector: strip malls and suburban office buildings. Put off by the unusually high price tags of the standard fare, the giant private-equity fund put its money into higher-yield major deals such as the $9.4 billion purchase of 588 US shopping centers from Centro Properties Group, a $1.1 billion suburban office portfolio from Duke Realty Corp., and a $473 million shopping-center portfolio concentrated in Florida and Georgia from Equity One Inc.

Best Sovereign Exit

Once big lenders during the real-estate boom, the three largest banks in Ireland all made a near-complete exit from the US market. Starting in the summer, Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish Banks PLC and Anglo Irish Bank Corp., each of which are mostly owned by the Irish government, nearly cleared their books of US loans, totaling sales of more than $12 billion, face value.

Change in Course

Donald Trump went from a public dalliance with a White House run to working on his golf handicap. In what would be its largest US property investment in years, Trump Organization agreed to pay $150 million to buy the Doral Golf Resort and Spa, a deluxe resort near Miami, often a stop on the PGA tour. While the deal isn’t done yet—other bidders could top Mr. Trump in a bankruptcy-court auction—it marks a shift from the years in which the high profile Trump buildings were licensing deals with other developers.

Worst Day in Court

In hindsight, bankruptcy might not have been the clean outcome it seemed for the Extended Stay hotel chain. David Lichstenstein, the New York investor who led the $8 billion purchase of the chain in 2007, put it into Chapter 11 when the investment soured. But this year, lenders went after a “bad-boy” provision, which can subject owners to large recourse penalties if they take certain actions, such as putting properties into bankruptcy. A New York state court ruled against him, exposing him to $100 million in personal liability, which he’s now appealing.

Biggest Optimist

At a time when few are building condominiums or office buildings, New York developer Gary Barnett, president of Extell Development Co., is betting big on a strong recovery in Manhattan. He has two giant Manhattan construction projects underway: the International Gem Tower, a mostly speculative tower aimed at both diamond dealers and traditional office tenants, as well as One57, a 1,004-foot condo tower aimed at a set of super-luxury foreign buyers. Neither started 2011 with a construction loan.

Biggest Ratings Snafu

Just as investors were about to buy bonds on a $1.5 billion batch of securities tied to commercial mortgages, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services pulled its rating on the deal, being sold by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc., citing potential problems with its ratings formula. The action was a shock to the commercial mortgage-backed securities world, shaking trust lenders and investors had put in the common financing tool.

Looking Ahead

With lenders wary of funding new construction, few major developments are expected to kick off in 2012, although a few developers are trying. Among those seeking to start building are Triple Five, which wants to re-start construction on a retail and entertainment mega-center in New Jersey previously named Xanadu, and Related Cos., which plans to start construction on its first tower in its $15 billion Hudson Yards project on Manhattan’s far West Side.

Iran threatens top block oil – prices rise

A senior Iranian official delivered a sharp threat in response to economic sanctions being readied by the United States, saying his country would retaliate against any crackdown by blocking all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for transporting about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.  The declaration by Iran’s first vice president, Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, came as President Obama prepares to sign legislation that, if fully implemented, could substantially reduce Iran’s oil revenue in a bid to deter it from pursuing a nuclear weapons program.  Apparently fearful of the expanded sanctions’ possible impact on the already-stressed economy of Iran, the world’s third-largest energy exporter, Rahimi said, “If they impose sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the Strait of Hormuz,” according to Iran’s official news agency. Iran just began a 10-day naval exercise in the area.

In recent interviews, Obama administration officials have said that the United States has developed a plan to keep the strait open in the event of a crisis. In Hawaii, where President Obama is vacationing, a White House spokesman said there would be no comment on the Iranian threat to close the strait. That seemed in keeping with what administration officials say has been an effort to lower the level of angry exchanges, partly to avoid giving the Iranian government the satisfaction of a response and partly to avoid spooking financial markets.  But the energy sanctions carry the risk of confrontation, as well as economic disruption, given the unpredictability of the Iranian response.  Merely uttering the threat appeared to be part of an Iranian effort to demonstrate its ability to cause a spike in oil prices, thus slowing the United States economy, and to warn American trading partners that joining the new sanctions, which the Senate passed by a rare 100-0 vote, would come at a high cost.  Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel in trading after the threat was issued, though it was unclear how much that could be attributed to investors’ concern that confrontation in the Persian Gulf could disrupt oil flows.

Freddie delinquency rate up

The delinquency rate of single-family mortgages held by Freddie Mac edged up to 3.57% in November from 3.54% in October, the government-sponsored enterprise said.  The multifamily delinquency rate fell to 0.28% in November from 0.31% the prior month, and the GSE’s total mortgage portfolio decreased at an annualized rate of 6.9% in November. A year ago, the single-family delinquency rate was 3.85% and the multifamily rate was about 0.34%.  Freddie completed 6,886 loan modifications during November, up from 6,571 a month earlier and 6,465 in September.  The single-family guarantee volume hit $27 billion in November, making up 71% of the mortgage giant’s total portfolio. That compares to $24.1 billion in October.  In addition, the unpaid principal balance of Freddie’s mortgage-related investment portfolio decreased by $5.8 billion in November.

Hiring up in 2012?

Employers expect to add new jobs in the new year, but are still cautious about their businesses, according to CareerBuilder‘s annual job forecast. Nearly one of every four hiring managers plans to hire full-time, permanent employees in 2012, similar to 2011 and employers said they expect to raise salaries.  “Barring any major economic upsets, we expect 2012 to bring a better hiring picture than 2011, especially in the second half of the year,” said Matt Ferguson, CEO of CareerBuilder. ”Many companies have been operating lean and have already pushed productivity limits. We’re likely to see gradual improvements in hiring across categories as companies respond to increased market demands.”  Ferguson said companies typically are more conservative in their survey answers than in their actual hiring.  Overall, CareerBuilder said 23% of employers surveyed plan to hire full-time, permanent employees next year, relatively unchanged from 24% for 2011 and up from 20% in 2010.  About 7% of respondents expect to decrease headcount, the same as 2011 and an improvement from 9% for 2010. Another 59% anticipate no change in staffing and 11% are unsure.

Small businesses reported more confidence in both hiring and retaining staff in 2012 with plans to downsize dropping two percentage points across small business segments while plans to hire increased two percentage points among companies with 50 or fewer workers. In that segment, 16% of respondents plan to add full-time, permanent staff in 2012, up from 14% for 2011.  For companies with fewer than 250 employees, 20% plan to add full-time, permanent staff in 2012, up from 19% this year and those reducing headcount fell to 4% for next year from 6% for 2011.  Of companies with 500 or fewer employees, 21% plan to add full-time, permanent staff, on par with 2011; those reducing headcount fell to 4% from 6%.

CareerBuilder said more employers in the West plan to recruit new employees in 2012 than other regions. Twenty-four% of employers in the West reported they plan to add full-time, permanent headcount.  However, the West also reported the highest number of companies planning to downsize in 2012 at 9%, reflecting the uncertainty businesses still feel about the economy.  Employers expect compensation levels to increase for both current staff and prospective employees as recruiting for skilled talent becomes more competitive.  Sixty-two% of employers plan to increase compensation for their existing employee base while 32% will offer higher starting salaries for new employees.  The survey, conducted by Harris Interactive from Nov. 9 to Dec. 5, included more than 3,000 hiring managers and human resources professionals across industries and company sizes.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 21, 2011

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MBA – mortgage applications down

Mortgage applications decreased 2.6% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 16, 2011.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2.8% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 1.6% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.9% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7.5% compared with the previous week and was 6.9% lower than the same week one year ago.
The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 0.26%. The four week moving average is down 1.53% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.32% for the Refinance Index.  “Continued anxiety surrounding the fragile economic situation in Europe led interest rates lower last week.

However, refinance applications fell slightly, and purchase applications dropped further as we head into the end of the year,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Remarkably low rates are not enough, as many homeowners continue to hold back due to lack of equity in their properties, poor credit and a weak job market.”  The refinance share of mortgage activity reached a high this year of 80.7% of total applications from 79.7% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to a low this year of 5.1% from 5.6% of total applications from the previous week.  The average loan size of all loans for home purchase in the US was $217,774 in November 2011, up from $213,430 in October 2011. The average loan size for a refinance increased from $217,153 in October to $220,523 in November. The average government purchase loan size declined from October to November, from $186,263 to $170,742. The largest purchase loans were made in the Pacific region at $308,307. The largest refinance loans were also made in the Pacific region at $304,509.

Chinese hackers hit US business

According to the Wall Street Journal, hackers in China broke through the computer defenses of the US Chamber of Commerce last year and were able to access information about its operations and its 3 million members.  The Journal, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter, reported the operation against the top American business lobbying group involved at least 300 internet addresses and was discovered and shut down in May 2010.  The newspaper reported it was not known how much information was seen by the hackers, or who may have had access to the network for more than a year before being discovered.  The group behind the breach is suspected by the United States of having ties to the Chinese government, one of the sources told the newspaper. The FBI informed the Chamber of Commerce that servers in China were pilfering its information, the source said.  Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin dismissed the report. “There’s nothing to be said about the baseless whipping up of so-called hacking and it won’t come to anything,” he told a daily news briefing in Beijing. “Chinese law bans hacking.”  The Chamber of Commerce employs 450 people and represents business interests in Congress, including most of the largest US corporations.

Almost half of all sales were short sales and REOs

A whopping 46% of homes sold in November were either short sales or REOs — as homes foreclosed on and repossessed by lenders are called, according to a survey by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance released yesterday.  “The huge glut of distressed properties coming to market is why there will be no home price rebound this coming year and maybe into 2013,” said Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance, a publisher of mortgage information and news.  Distressed homes sell for a lot less than homes sold by conventional sellers. The average price for a short sale (when borrowers owe the bank more than their homes are worth) was $209,000 in November. For a regular sale, the average is about $259,000.  The numbers are even worse for REOs, which averaged about $190,000 for properties in move-in condition.  “Distressed properties have the lowest prices for any category of home sold,” said Cecala. “To a large extent, that’s why we’ve seen continuous home price drops over the past three years and why those drops are likely to go on.”  There is no shortage of distressed properties: More than 6 million borrowers are delinquent 30 or more days, according to LPS Applied Analytics. Two million are already in the foreclosure process, and most of these homes will be repossessed or sold as short sales.  House hunters have gotten accustomed to shopping for homes in foreclosure and any stigma that may have attached to REOs or short sales in the past has diminished. But many of these properties have been damaged, making them hard to sell and depressing their prices.  Indeed, the average price for a damaged REO was just $99,000 in November — 62% less than conventional sales, the survey found.

Corporate borrowing way up

Consumers may be cutting debt and banks may be tightening up their balance sheets, but borrowing by US corporations is in full swing.  At a time when the popular narrative centers on how tight-fisted banks are getting with their lending, end-of-year data for syndicated loans tell a different story.  Corporations use syndicated loans for longer-term financing. The loans usually are provided by a group of deep-pocketed lenders who can distribute liability among them and thus decrease their risk. Big Wall Street investment banks are usually the source of such loans.  So far in 2011, syndicated loan volume has increased a whopping 56% compared to 2010, according to Dealogic. The total of $1.76 trillion is the highest single-year sum since the pre-financial crisis days of 2007.  This came even though fourth-quarter activity saw a pretty big tail – the $354.5 billion total was the lowest in more than a year, since the $246.6 billion in the third quarter of 2010, Dealogic said.  Moreover, the US was the biggest player in the space, with 47% of the total global loan volume, up 9 percentage points over 2010.  The bulk of the loans went to the most credit-worthy.  Investment grade volume increased to $1.03 trillion, also the highest since 2007, representing a 68% year-over-year gain.  Globally, syndicated loan volume grew 27% to $3.74 trillion – again, the highest since 2007, Dealogic said.

NAR – existing home sales up

Existing-home sales rose again in November and remain above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Also released today were periodic benchmark revisions with downward adjustments to sales and inventory data since 2007, led by a decline in for-sale-by-owners.  Although rebenchmarking resulted in lower adjustments to several years of home sales data, the month-to-month characterization of market conditions did not change. There are no changes to home prices or month’s supply.  The latest monthly data shows total existing-home sales^, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 4.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.42 million in November from 4.25 million in October, and are 12.2% above the 3.94 million-unit pace in November 2010.  Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said more people are taking advantage of the buyer’s market. “Sales reached the highest mark in 10 months and are 34% above the cyclical low point in mid-2010 – a genuine sustained sales recovery appears to be developing,” he said. “We’ve seen healthy gains in contract activity, so it looks like more people are realizing the great opportunity that exists in today’s market for buyers with long-term plans.”

MF Global “not missing money” – just can’t find it

James Giddens, the court-appointed trustee liquidating the brokerage, told a teleconference with MF Global clients that he was trying to recover $70 million in cash and $630 million in T-Bills from MF Global UK, according to John Roe, co-founder of the Chicago-based Commodity Customer Coalition, which represents more than 8,000 MF Global customer accounts.  A spokesman for Giddens later clarified that the U.K. funds were separate from the $1.2 billion that he estimates are missing from US customer accounts. Typically brokers account for US and foreign exchange collateral separately, with US funds more closely regulated.  “It’s not the missing money. This doesn’t change the $1.2 billion at all,” Kent Jarrell told Reuters.  “We’ve known this was tied up with the UK administrator. This is not suddenly found money.

This is money that we knew would be hard to get.”  Regulators have been seeking the lost money since MF Global executives said it was missing, hours before the once leading brokerage filed for bankruptcy on October 31.  Jarrell said the trustee was in discussion with UK trustee KPMG over recovering the funds.  ”We are going to claim that those are the assets of our customers but we don’t have control over that money. We’ll pursue them vigorously but it’s been our experience that we may not get that money back. The recovery of those assets may take some time and we may not get that back. Any money that we don’t get back would translate into a shortfall for our customers.”  The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Jill Sommers last week told Reuters in an interview that the CFTC’s investigation was “far enough along the trail” to be able to determine where customer money went.  MF Global filed for bankruptcy on October 31 after it was forced to reveal that it had made a $6.3 billion bet on European sovereign debt, spooking investors and customers.

Florida ends mandatory foreclosure mediation

Florida is giving up on a program designed to help keep struggling homeowners in their homes and out of foreclosure.  When the state created the foreclosure mediation program two years ago, it was heralded as a creative way to try to address the crush of foreclosures moving into courts and causing huge backlogs in the judicial system.  The idea was to get lenders and borrowers together with a mediator, who would help find a solution to keep cases out of court.  But it didn’t work. Only about three percent of the cases resulted in revised mortgage agreements.  Plus, Anthony DiMarco of the Florida Bankers Association says lenders were already working to resolve mortgage problems before taking homeowners to foreclosure.  “It’s very duplicative since we were trying to do it ahead of time and throughout the process. If someone came to us with a meaningful loan modification through the process, I think we would sit down and work with them and figure out a way to keep them in the home.”  DiMarco says lenders paid for all the mediation costs so they were motivated to make it work.  “There was no cost to the homeowner to take part in it and we spent tens of millions of dollars and I think if you look at the program results, they don’t bear out that it worked.”  DiMarco says the program was also fatally flawed because lenders had a terrible time trying to locate struggling borrowers. Nearly 60% of the homeowners eligible for mediation could never be found or contacted.  But while the mediation program is ending, cases already under way will be settled.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 20, 2011

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

************************************************************

Housing starts up

The Commerce Department said on Tuesday housing starts jumped 9.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 units, the highest since April last year.  October’s starts were revised down to a 627,000-unit pace from a previously reported 628,000 unit rate.  Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts rising to a 635,000-unit rate. Compared to November last year, residential construction was up 24.3%.  Building permits, a gauge of future construction, rose by 5.7%. The increase was spurred by more apartment permits.  New homes have an outsize impact on the economy. Each home built creates three jobs for a year and $90,000 in taxes, according to the National Association of Home Builders.  Although the overall housing market remains weak, rising demand for rental apartments is boosting the construction of multifamily homes.

Housing is becoming less of a drag on the economy and residential construction has now grown for two straight quarters.  Even home builders are adopting a more optimistic view of the sector, with confidence rising to a 1-1/2 year high in December.  Last month, housing starts for the volatile multi-family homes segment surged 25.3% to a 238,000-unit rate, and groundbreaking for projects with five or more units hit the highest level since September 2008.  Single-family home construction — which accounts for a large portion of the market — rose 2.3% to a 447,000-unit pace.  New building permits unexpectedly increased 5.7% to a 681,000-unit pace in November. Economists had expected overall building permits to fall to a 635,000-unit pace last month.  Permits were pushed up by a 13.9% jump in the multi-family segment. Permits for buildings with five or more units were the highest since October 2008. Permits to build single-family homes rose 1.6%.  New home completions dropped 5.6% to 542,000 units last month.

Still, the total is far below the 1.2 million homes that economists say would be built each year in a healthy housing market.  A full recovery for the sector, which was one of the main triggers of the 2007-09 recessions, remains far off in the future given a glut of unsold homes, weak prices, high unemployment and tight credit.  Housing starts are still less than a third of their 2.273 million rate peak in January 2006.

Tax hike coming?

With a tax cut for 160 million US workers set to expire in less than two weeks, Republicans and Democrats in Congress on Monday were mired in a last-ditch battle over extending it.  In a surprise turnabout, Republicans in the House of Representatives are now pushing for a one-year extension of the payroll tax cut and have rejected a short-term compromise struck by Republicans and Democrats in the Senate at the weekend.  House Republicans had initially expressed concerns over the economic benefits of renewing the tax break, which expires on Dec. 31, and soon-to-expire jobless benefits.  The House is set to vote sometime during the day on Tuesday to formally request negotiations with the Senate on a new bill.  But the path to compromise was far from clear as Democrats took a hardline stance.  Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid said he was unwilling to reopen negotiations. Almost all senators have already left Washington for the holidays and the Democratic-controlled chamber has no legislative business scheduled until Jan. 23.  The stand-off between Republicans and Democrats raised the specter of a $1,000 tax hike on the average American worker and millions of unemployed losing their benefits.

Olick – beware of sale revisions

“We already know the housing crash was bad, perhaps the worst in history; tomorrow we will learn that it’s worse than we thought.  The National Association of Realtors, for a number of reasons I won’t get into because they’ve been widely reported, over-counted home sales during part of the last decade and has spent the better part of this past year figuring out just how badly they did that.  They consulted with economists at the Federal Reserve, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the mortgage bankers, the home builders, as well as umpteen other housing specialists, and tomorrow they will release their results.  Expectations are that home sales could be revised down anywhere from ten to twenty%. The Realtors’ chief economist said the revision would be, ‘meaningful.’

The revisions will likely not change the fact that last year saw the fewest homes sold on record. They will not change estimates of home prices, nor the home price drop since the 2006 peak, nor will they change inventories of unsold homes in month’s supply (how long it takes to sell that many homes) although absolute inventories will be revised lower. They will not affect monthly or annual percentage changes in sales recently.  The revisions will also have nothing to do with how many newly built homes sold, nor will they say anything about the health of the nation’s home builders.  Far more importantly, the revisions will have nothing to do with how many borrowers are behind on their mortgage payments or in the process of foreclosure, which is 6.26 million, according to numbers just released from Lender Processing Services.  The Realtors’ revisions will not change the losses at banks, losses to investors, and losses to the now government-owned mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, nor to the Federal Housing Administration.  The Realtors’ revisions will change perception; they may even change consumer sentiment. Headlines will scream Wednesday morning, and reporters like me will jump in with the ‘breaking news,’ that far fewer existing homes sold over the past four years than previously thought.  The crash will look bigger, as the Realtors are only revising numbers starting in 2007, because ‘they did a side-by-side comparison of the calculations and the drift began only in 2007,’ says an NAR spokesman. ‘So there was no need to revise earlier data. It appears that roughly half of the revisions come from the drop in FSBO’s [For Sale By Owner].’

Let me repeat what I just wrote: The crash will look bigger. Will that change anything in the economy today? Will it affect the housing market going forward? Will it hamper the fledgling recovery (which I’m not 100 percent sure is really taking hold)?  My guess is no, but the revisions, and the hue and cry surrounding them, will hurt consumer confidence, which was beginning to come around ever so slightly.  The home builders reported an increase in buyer traffic and buyer inquiries in December, and said gains in the past months are ‘an indication that pockets of recovery are slowly starting to emerge in scattered housing markets.’ These new numbers will hurt that new-found confidence, not because of anything real on the ground, but because of the perception of just how far we fell.  It is commendable that the Realtors are correcting their miscalculations, but equally distressing that just as our outlook for the future was brightening ever so slightly, and home buying demand was beginning to awaken, we have to be reminded of a very dark past, darker than we knew.  There are still considerable headwinds facing housing’s recovery, not the least of which are foreclosures, and potential buyers have to factor that into their decision making. They should not, however, be spooked by nasty new numbers that really just put an exclamation point on what we already knew … that housing went from an unprecedented boom to an unprecedented bust and took down our economy with it.”

Economy to expand?

The US economy will continue to expand moderately next year and inflation will remain under control, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker said on Monday.  While he did not comment specifically on monetary policy, Lacker, an inflation hawk who will rotate into a voting seat in the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee next year, indicated he does not see the need for further monetary stimulus.  “The macroeconomic experience of 2011 provides vivid illustration. Despite large-scale efforts to provide more monetary stimulus, growth has disappointed and inflation has ratcheted upwards,” Lacker said in remarks before the Charlotte Chamber of Commerce.

Counseling doubles chance of modification

Borrowers who received foreclosure counseling through a national program were twice as likely to receive a modification, according to a study released yesterday.  The Urban Institute evaluated roughly 800,000 homeowners who took help from the National Foreclosure Mitigation Counseling program from January 2008 through December 2009. NeighborWorks America administers the program with federal funds.  The counselors are approved by the Department of Housing and Urban Development. They work on homeowner budgets and guide borrowers through the various options provided by the mortgage servicer to avoid foreclosure.  Those who went through the program were at least 67% more likely to remain current within nine months of receiving a modification, according to the study. Borrowers who went through the program had their payment reduced by an average of $176 per month.

Congress slashed funding for HUD housing counseling programs earlier in the year. The mortgage industry called for lawmakers to restore the money because of the more than 5 million homeowners who are at least 30 days delinquent, according to Lender Processing Services.  In November, Washington restored some of the money, and HUD was allowed to grant $40 million to counselors.  Eileen Fitzgerald, CEO of NeighborWorks America, said the program and others like it help homeowners and servicers alike by reducing redefaults.  “In short, the personalized work nonprofit housing counselors do to help homeowners improve their overall financial situation had the greatest effect on a homeowner not falling behind again on their mortgages in the future,” Fitzgerald said.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 7, 2011

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Home prices fall

According to the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI), national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined by 3.9% on a year-over-year basis in October 2011 compared to October 2010.  This follows a decline of 3.8% in September 2011 compared to September 2010.  Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.5% in October 2011 compared to October 2010 and by 2.1% in September 2011 compared to September 2010.  Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

Highlights as of October 2011

-  Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were:  West Virginia (+4.8%), South Dakota (+3.1%), New York (+3.0%), District of Columbia (+2.4%) and Alaska (+2.1%).

-  Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-12.1%), Illinois (-9.4%), Arizona (-8.1%), Minnesota (-7.9%) and Georgia (-7.3%).

-  Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: South Carolina (+4.6%), Maine (+3.1%), New York (+3.1%), Alaska (+2.9%) and Kansas (+2.8%).

-  Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Nevada (-8.8%), Arizona (-7.0%), Minnesota (-5.7%), Delaware (-3.9%) and Georgia (-3.6%).

-  Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to October 2011) was -32.0%.  Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -22.4%.

-  Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 78 are showing year-over-year declines in October, two fewer than in September.

Citigroup plans layoffs

Citigroup is cutting 4,500 jobs worldwide, Chief Executive Vikram Pandit said on Tuesday, becoming the latest large bank to trim staff.  Pandit, speaking at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, said the bank would record a $400 million charge in the quarter for severance and other expenses related to the layoffs.  The cuts are equal to about 2% of Citi’s workforce of 267,000 employees at the end of third quarter 2011.  Pandit said the cuts would be completed over “the next few quarters” and would come from a range of businesses.  Citi joins other banks worldwide that have cut more than 120,000 jobs as regulations have imposed tighter industry rules and the economy remains weak.  Pandit said Citi’s reductions would involve its proprietary trading units, which are being wound down.  The 2010 Dodd-Frank financial reform law features a provision known as the Volcker Rule that limits banks from betting their own capital in the market.  Pandit also said Citi’s expense previously disclosed expense reduction program generated $1.4 billion in savings so far this year, nearly 4% of the bank’s $37.72 billion of operating expenses in the first three quarters.

MBA – mortgage applications increase

Mortgage applications increased 12.8% from one week earlier (which included the Thanksgiving holiday), according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 2, 2011.   The Market Composite Index increased 12.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 60.2% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 15.3% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8.3% from one week earlier to its highest level since August 5, 2011. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 47.2% compared with the previous week and was 0.8% lower than the same week one year ago.  “Coming out of the Thanksgiving holiday, applications increased significantly as mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels in about two months,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “In particular, refinance applications increased sharply, with some lenders seeing refinance volume double. Despite this surge, aggregate refinance activity is still below levels reported two weeks ago. Some lenders indicated they are beginning to see an increase in HARP loans, but that increase is still a small portion of the move this week.”

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 3.20%. The four week moving average is up 3.33% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 5.13% for the Refinance Index.  The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 76.0% of total applications from 73.9% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.7% from 5.8% of total applications from the previous week.  In November 2011, among refinance borrowers, 52.9% of applications were for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 26.2% for 15-year fixed loans, and 5.8% for ARMs. The share of refinance applications for “other” fixed-rate mortgages with amortization schedules other than 15 and 30-year terms was 15.1% of all refinance applications. The shares for 30-year fixed and the “other” fixed category increased from the previous month, while the 15-year fixed and ARM shares decreased from last month.  For applications for home purchase, 85.5% were for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 6.8% for 15-year fixed loans, and 5.9% for ARMs. This is the second lowest ARM share for purchases since January 2011.

Stock market in for a beating?

Robert Prechter, founder and president of Elliott Wave International, says there’s a big storm coming our way.  Prechter compares the current phase of the market to the late stages of the 1929 – 1933 period in US history; a time marked by extreme volatility eventually ending in tears.  “One of the things that happened in 1929 was that a consortium of the biggest banks in the country tried to stop the market from going down,” notes Prechter. Those banks failed of course, just as Prechter says they did when the Central Banks tried to prevent the coming financial meltdown in 2008 by offering essentially free credit.  The timing is only different, he says, because “banks these days are much bigger than they were in 1929.” In the 20′s institutions were reliant on client money to lead their bailout attempts. Today Central Banks have the ability to call on future, often overstated, tax revenues and are unencumbered by anything such as a gold standard when attempting to ward off the human desire to hide under the covers, financially speaking.

Prechter also draws parallels to April of 1930, 1937, and other periods in which relatively brief recoveries dissolved. Pick a tool, any tool, and Prechter says it suggests a stock market going lower. “Patterns, sentiment indicators, or momentum are all saying the same thing: This is a bear market rally.”  According to Prechter, not all the Central Banks in the world trump international trends towards a cautious, negative mood already impacting all things financial. This trend, the inverse of those giddy days of the 1990′s when all things seemed possible (even Internet stocks and the Euro!), causes predictable behaviors in the masses. They tend to sell stocks, stop spending, and start revolting against current leadership; all of which should sound familiar to those who read the newspaper.  It’s an environment confounding to bulls and bears alike. At the beginning of 2011, Prechter notes, the bulls were betting on a sharp recovery in stocks and “got hurt quite a bit.” Commodities were a bad bet, hurting “hyper-inflationist” bears.  Let’s remember that real estate isn’t in the stock market.

Olick – two housing markets?

“As we head toward the end of the year, for some reason the drumbeat to claim that housing has bottomed is growing louder.  There were a few positive indicators in September, rising housing starts and rising home sales, that gave some analysts fodder for optimism, but the readings on prices are far less rosy, and alas far more complicated.  Two reports out today show home prices are falling again after seeing some gains in the Spring and Summer. Lender Processing Services says they’re down 3.7% annually in September, erasing the gains of the Spring, and they say all of the 13,500 zip codes it tracks are in the negative.  Meanwhile CoreLogic says prices fell 3.9% in October, but when you take out foreclosures and short sales (the latter when the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage), home prices are down just 0.5% annually. The vaunted S&P/Case-Shiller home price index was down 3.9% in September, and that’s a three month running average including distressed and non-distressed property sales.

So why are analysts now predicting a house price recovery?  Goldman Sachs put out a report late last week predicting that S&P/Case-Shiller would drop 2.5% further and then bottom, probably in the summer of 2012. This when the S&P/Case-Shiller folks themselves predict a 3.5% drop and a bottom later in 2012. The Goldman theory is based on some kind of ‘equilibrium’ price model for each market. They also claim that homes no longer appear ‘expensive.’ when you look at price/rent ratios, and that historical models suggest that income and population, as always, will drive improved demand.  Then this week analysts at Barclays Capital honed in on the difference in price drops between distressed and non-distressed properties. They claim the non-distressed market is stabilizing, so that must mean that a foreclosure or short sale is, ‘increasingly being seen as a poor substitute for a non-distressed home,’ according to analyst Stephen Kim. He claims the disparity will in fact widen over time.

So are we just supposed to ignore the distressed market? What about the fact that in some cities more than half of the properties selling are distressed? And what about the fact that there are more distressed properties coming to market, as the banks ramp up the long-stalled foreclosure process? And how about appraisers using distressed properties as comps to non-distressed properties?  I realize many of you think I’m too bearish on housing’s recovery, but trust me, nobody’s more sick of reporting the same lousy numbers than I am. The problem is that while sales are improving slightly, and consumer sentiment may be settling a bit, the mess left to clean up from the past is still weighing heavily on the future. The economy may be improving slightly, buyers may be considering getting back in, but we are barely half way through the overhang of distress, and any change in the economy could set us back even further.  I am in no way claiming that housing is in for a quadruple dip nor that we are going to see more big losses. Frankly I think we’re going to be flat in housing for a long time, which is not a very interesting story to tell from a reporter’s perspective. While there may be two types of properties (distressed and non-distressed), there is just one housing market, and you cannot negate one to inflate or deflate the other.”

Small business more optimistic, maybe

Optimism of small business owners remained flat in November at 53%, according to a new scorecard by SurePayroll, the leading online payroll service for small businesses with less than 100 employees. That’s fairly good news after optimism rebounded by 20% in October from an all-time low of 33% in September.  The report, which measures the current health of small business in America, also showed hiring was down from October, but wages on the other hand did tick up slightly. Still both remain down 3% and 0.5% year-to-date, respectively.  Small businesses make up 99.7% of all employer firms and employ more than half of private sector workers in this country, according to the US Small Business Administration, which describes a small business as having fewer than 500 employees.

While 53% of small business owners are optimistic about the state of the economy and the health of their business, one must not forget roughly the same amount of are just as pessimistic. Alter says most of SurePayroll customers describe themselves as “cautiously optimistic” and that sentiment rests heavily upon what happens in Washington.  Next year one of the biggest factors to impact the decisions made by small businesses is the Supreme Court’s ruling over the constitutionality of Obama’s health care law, according to SurePayroll’s November scorecard. By a ratio of 2 to 1, the small business owners surveyed are hopeful the Supreme Court finds the health care legislation unconstitutional. If that were to happen, hiring and wages would likely see a boost, says Alter.  Another big factor to impact small businesses is whether Congress will act to extend the employee payroll tax credit and if so, who will have to foot the bill. Passing an extension would provide many Americans with an extra $1000 dollars in discretionary spending, which would be good for business, says Alter. But, if it is businesses who have to cover the expense of that credit, that would certainly hurt hiring and wages.

WSJ – delinquent CMB loans declines

The share of delinquent commercial mortgages that were bundled together and sold as securities declined modestly during the third quarter for the first time since the property downturn began four years ago, according to a survey released yesterday by the Mortgage Bankers Association.  The share of loans at least 30 days past due fell to 8.92% from 9.02% in the second quarter for commercial and multifamily loans in mortgage-backed securities. Those loans have had the worst performance among all commercial mortgages originated during the boom, and the delinquency rate was still above the 8.52% mark of one year ago.

Commercial mortgages held by US banks had a 90-day delinquency rate of 3.75% at the end of the third quarter, down from 3.94% in the second quarter. Delinquencies on bank-held commercial loans have fallen or remained flat in each of the past four quarters.  Delinquencies posted small increases on multifamily mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but the increases came from very low absolute levels. Freddie Mac has a delinquency rate of just 0.33%, or around one-tenth of the level of delinquencies of commercial banks. That was up from 0.31% in the second quarter but down from 0.36% in the first quarter.  Nearly 0.57% of Fannie Mae multifamily mortgages were delinquent at the end of September. That was up from 0.46% at the end of the June, but down from 0.71% at the end of 2010.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com