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Refinance Applications Surge, Purchase Applications Drop in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) in its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 7, 2010, said that the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 14.8 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.5 percent from one week earlier. “The recent plunge in rates on US Treasury securities, due to a flight to quality as investors worldwide sought shelter from the Greek debt crisis, benefited US mortgage borrowers last week. Rates on 30-year mortgages dropped to their lowest level since mid-March. As a result, refinance applications for conventional loans jumped, hitting their highest level in six weeks,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “In contrast, purchase applications fell almost 10 percent in the first week following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, as the tax credit likely pulled some sales into April that would otherwise have occurred in May or later.” The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 4.4 percent. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 57.7 percent of total applications from 51.9 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 6.3 percent of total applications from the previous week.
Stability is still at the end of the tunnel
Home prices are showing signs of stabilization in some housing markets, particularly those in Midwest metro areas, according to numbers released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors. Overall in the first quarter, 91 out of 152 metro areas posted gains in median home prices, as compared to the first quarter of 2009. But distressed sales continue to drag down battered cities in Florida and Nevada where median prices fell by as much as 15%. Orlando saw the most precipitous drop, with median prices down 15%, followed by Ocala, Fla. (-14.5%), Cumberland-Martinsburg, Md. W. Va.(-14.4%) and Indianapolis, Ind. (-13.9%) Boise City-Nampa, Idaho (-13.9%), and Reno-Sparks, Nev. (-13.5%). Las Vegas-Paradise, the metro area that has led the nation in foreclosures for much of the last year, saw an 11.8% decline in median prices, from $155,300 to $137,000.
However, increases, far and few are somewhat misleading, indicating more that the mix of homes for sale is changing. “In urban Akron, you had some house prices on foreclosed properties that are $5,000, $14,000, $20,000. When you have a lot of those sales versus the existing sales, it really drove the prices down,” says Jim Camp, president of Cutler Real Estate of Akron. Mr. Yun, the chief economist at The Realtors says in the release, going forward, the housing market will have to rely on continuing job growth and low mortgage rates to remain stable. Rates ended last week at 5.01% for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to HSH Associates. That’s just slightly higher than the 50-year low of 4.92%, which was reached in December of last year.
After Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley takes the heat
Federal prosecutors are investigating whether Morgan Stanley misled investors about mortgage-derivatives deals it helped design and sometimes bet against, people familiar with the matter say, in a step that intensifies Washington’s scrutiny of Wall Street in the wake of the financial crisis. Morgan Stanley arranged and marketed to investors pools of bond-related investments called “collateralized debt obligations,” or CDOs, and its trading desk at times placed bets that their value would fall, traders say. Investigators are examining, among other things, whether Morgan Stanley made proper representations about its roles. Among the deals that have been scrutinized are two named after U.S. Presidents James Buchanan and Andrew Jackson, a person familiar with the matter says. Traders called them the “Dead Presidents” deals. The probe is at a preliminary stage.
Bringing criminal cases involving complex Wall Street deals is a huge challenge for prosecutors. The government must prove beyond a reasonable doubt that a firm or its employees knowingly misled investors, a high bar. The government launches many criminal investigations that end without any charges being filed. The investigation grew out of an ongoing civil-fraud investigation launched by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2009, examining the mortgage-bond business of more than a dozen Wall Street firms, the people say. The Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s office now is investigating some of those firms’ activities in a criminal probe. Spokespeople for the Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s office and the SEC declined to comment.
Diana Olick – Private Mortgage Insurers Shouldn’t Ease Standards: FHA’s Stevens
“FHA Commissioner David Stevens told a couple of thousand realtors at a conference in Washington, DC that there is “no end in sight” to the growing number of FHA loans. When I interviewed him about a half hour later, and asked him how, if that’s the case, the private mortgage insurers can get back on their feet, he backpedaled, saying “There is an end in sight. According to new numbers yet to be released publicly by Inside Mortgage Finance, private mortgage insurers like PMI Group, Genworth and MGIC, had a 77 percent market share before the housing crisis. Today that share is down to 12 percent. Translate that into real dollar figures, and that’s $510 billion in lost business. After taking huge losses on bad loans, they are now trying to dust themselves off and get back in the game. One way of doing that is to ease some of the new standards the MI’s put in place in distressed markets like California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada.
Folks at PMI yesterday told me they are dropping FICO scores by a little, raising LTV’s by a little and getting back into jumbo conforming loans in the distressed markets (loans between $417,000 and 729,000). I asked Commissioner Stevens if this is the right strategy: “As the markets recover, we believe they will start pricing appropriately.” The trouble is that the mortgage insurers business competitiveness is tied to the government’s housing bailout, and not in a good way. It’s not just the FHA, it’s Fannie and Freddie. “While MI pricing is comparable to FHA, the GSEs add-on fees (loan level price adjustments) are much more costly than Ginnie Mae fees, FHA’s secondary market outlet,” says Brian Chappelle, a mortgage analyst. “The MIs weren’t in a position to do new business. Now they are but GSE pricing policies are constraining them.”
Goldman settlement with SEC could be costly
It is speculated that Goldman attorneys have entered preliminary talks with the Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) with the hopes of settling the outstanding federal fraud charges now facing the company. “There are a myriad of opportunities out there and I won’t rule any of them out,” Gary Cohn, the company’s president and chief operating officer, said at the conclusion of the firm’s annual shareholder meeting last week. A settlement with the SEC would likely bring to an end at least some of the negative publicity Goldman has had to endure since regulators charged the company and one of its employees with defrauding investors in the sale of a complex mortgage investment dubbed “Abacus.”
Some legal experts said that a settlement could exceed the $1 billion the SEC claims that investors lost on the deal, and that would rank as the largest SEC settlement in the post-Sarbanes-Oxley era. Any fine will likely be quite manageable, especially if a settlement allows Goldman to avoid being in the public spotlight as much it has during the last year. Instead, legal experts suggest that Goldman may be particularly fearful if SEC require the company to create greater distance between its mortgage underwriting and trading operations or provide greater transparency to clients about its different investment products, as part of the settlement. In two separate securities filings this month, Goldman acknowledged it now faces a variety of related lawsuits, as well as investigations from a number of international regulatory agencies, including Britain’s Financial Services Authority, over the sale of mortgage-related investments.
Now on to our real estate investing education section …
It’s the Middle of May…Are You Still Procrastinating?
Was one of your New Year’s Resolutions to get started in short sales or perhaps increase your investment goals? Whatever the exact shape and size of your objectives…chances are you haven’t made much progress if you are one of the millions of Americans that suffer from chronic procrastination. Contrary to popular opinion, many procrastinators are not lazy nor do they lack self esteem or even organizational skills. Instead, the very characteristics that lead to high achievement in other areas of life often prevent success when investing in real estate or short sales. Fortunately, once you identify your particular source of procrastination, it’s simple to achieve success.
1. Perfectionism. Practice might make perfect but perfection often comes at the price of having a lot of less than perfect trial attempts. Insisting upon doing something perfectly is one of the main reasons many people fail to begin a new project. Closely related to this is the fallacy that you must personally do everything yourself. Learn how to “let go” and instead, focus on the big picture without sweating every detail. Not only will you enjoy the process a lot more but it’s a sure-fire way to stop procrastinating while waiting for perfection.
2. Non-Realistic Goals. Novice short sale investors often think they can walk out the door and score a “big one” on the first deal. While that does happen from time to time, the inability to obtain bragging rights shouldn’t stop you from getting started. Plenty of people have made substantial long term returns from a series of small deals that progressively build a solid portfolio. Remember, risk and reward are intrinsic to investing at all levels; don’t demand goals you are unable to obtain without undue risk. Instead, start at a level appropriate for your current situation and use the profits to fund future returns.
3. Unwilling to Ask for Help. Whether it’s asking for driving directions or simply admitting they don’t know everything, some people find it difficult to ask for help. Fortunately, they are often smart enough to realize they don’t have the answers but rather than “bother” someone else, they set aside the idea for another time. Learning how to ask for help doesn’t have to be a burden to you or others; it’s one reason we have created an easy way to obtain the best short sale information, join webinars and other tools designed to help you become proactive in fulfilling your short sale goals.
Tip:
Make a point of delegating at least one critical task each week in order to move toward your short sale goals; don’t worry if it’s not perfect. Keep your goals realistic or even remove the source of conflict by deciding to go through the process just to “break even”…that way you will be pleasantly surprised by whatever profit is above and beyond your minimal expectation. Finally, sign-up for automatic reminders to join a webinar or other free information sessions this week. Find out how simple it really can be to succeed in short sales.
See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin
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About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.
* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
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