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Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin February 29, 2012

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MBA – mortgage application down

Mortgage applications decreased 0.3% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 24, 2012. This week’s results are adjusted for the Presidents Day holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 9.4% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2.2% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 8.2% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.9% compared with the previous week and was 4.3% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 0.33%. The four week moving average is down 0.96% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 0.64% for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 77.9% of total applications from 80.1% the previous week. This is the lowest refinance share since December 2, 2011, and the first time the measure has fallen below 80% since December 9, 2011. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.0% from 5.3% of total applications from the previous week. “Mortgage rates remained near survey lows last week, but refinance volume fell slightly,” said Michael Fratantoni, Vice President of Research and Economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Fratantoni continued, “According to survey participants, more than 20% of refinance applications were for HARP loans. The HARP share of total refinance applications has increased over the past month. Purchase application volume increased over the week, but remains within the narrow and anemic range of activity we have seen since the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit in May 2010.” In January 2012, among home purchase applications, 86.4% were for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 6.5% for 15-year fixed loans and 5.4% for ARMs. The share of purchase applications for “other” fixed-rate mortgages with amortization schedules other than 15 and 30-year terms was 1.7% of all purchase applications. The share of 15-year fixed and ARM decreased from the previous month while the 30-year fixed and “other” fixed category shares increased from last month.

Growth up 3%, inflation up

Gross domestic product expanded at a 3% annual rate, the quickest pace since the second quarter of 2010, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate. That was a step up from the 2.8% pace it reported in January. Price indexes also swelled, with the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index jumping 1.3%, against an advanced reading of 1.1%. Economists polled by Reuters had expected fourth-quarter GDP would be unrevised at a 2.8% pace. The economy grew at a 1.8% pace in the third quarter. While the rebuilding of inventories added a hefty 1.88 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter, the pace of accumulation was not as fast as previously reported. Business inventories increased $54.3 billion, instead of $56.0 billion. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a 1.1% rate, rather than 0.8%. That was still a sharp step-down from the prior period’s 3.2% pace. Although business overall business spending was revised up, investment in equipment and software was lowered to a 4.8% growth rate from 5.2%. Export growth estimates were also lowered, but weaker imports led to a smaller trade gap.

In addition, consumer spending — which accounts for about 70% of US economic activity — was a touch firmer than initially thought. Consumer spending rose at a 2.1% rate instead of 2%. Even spending on home building was firmer than previously estimated and investment on nonresidential structures was modestly weak. So far data ranging from employment to manufacturing have shown underlying strength in the economy, reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy further by launching a third round of asset purchases or quantitative easing. But surging gasoline prices, which have risen 12.6% or 42 cents since the start of the year and averaged $3.78 a gallon in the week through Monday, are clouding the outlook. High gasoline prices helped to almost snuff out growth early last year. However, economists believe the impact on households this time could be mitigated somewhat by weak costs for natural gas and a strengthening labor market.

WSJ – Senators for short sales

The best that can be said about the latest Congressional attempt to heal the housing market is that politicians have at least diagnosed a real problem: a glut of homes for sale. Like other proposed top-down fixes, however, the latest Beltway brainstorm would likely hurt more than help. Republicans Lisa Murkowski and Scott Brown and Democrat Sherrod Brown want to speed up short sales, which occur when a lender agrees to let a homeowner pay off a mortgage by selling a home at a price below the outstanding loan balance. Their bill—introduced earlier this month—would force lenders to approve or deny short-sale offers within 75 days or face a $1,000 fine, plus attorneys’ fees. The lender could ask for an extension only once, for 21 days. Accelerating short sales isn’t a bad idea, in and of itself. Delinquent borrowers can offload their mortgage and find another home they can afford, or move to an area that’s cheaper. Lenders don’t have to endure a lengthy foreclosure process and risk having the property sit unoccupied for months, if not years. Borrowers who can afford the home can snap them up at bargain prices.

But why do the Senators want to interfere in a market that is working? CoreLogic recorded 293,574 short sales last year, up from 273,100 in 2010 and 64,813 in 2007. That makes sense: Lenders want to minimize their losses as best they can and are working through their portfolio as quickly as possible. Setting an arbitrary timeline for short sales makes for a good political talking point, but it might have unintended consequences. Lenders often have to coordinate with investors and second-lien holders to approve the deal, which takes time. They also don’t want to rush, make a mistake and expose themselves to litigation for sloppy paperwork, especially after the recent furor over alleged “robo-signing” abuses. Fraud is another concern, though it’s hard to get firm estimates on the extent of the problem. Risk consultancy Interthinx estimates about $1 billion was lost annually in deals between 2007 and 2010 when buyers resold property for more than 20% of the original sale value within six weeks—a red flag for fraud in a market with falling or flat home prices. Sometimes a broker’s low-ball assessment done on a house is fraudulent; sometimes a broker conceals from the lender the fact that a willing buyer exists for the house at a higher price. Big banks like Wells Fargo or Bank of America can devote resources to fighting this kind of fraud but smaller lenders may not have the same capabilities. Try as Congress might, there’s no quick fix to the oversupply of homes that’s weighing down the housing market. Increasing the regulatory burden on lenders will only prolong the pain.

WSJ – home prices hit new lows

Home prices fell to fresh lows in December, but economists say that a drop in the number of homes listed for sale could help stabilize prices in parts of the country this year. Home prices fell by 4% last year, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index that tracks 20 metro areas. Prices dropped by 1.1% for the three-month period ending in December compared with the same period ending in November. That was slightly better than November’s reading, when prices were down 1.3% from October. Tuesday’s report is the latest evidence that the housing market still faces a cloudy outlook after a six-year downturn. The inventory of homes for sale has contracted, reducing competition among sellers, according to The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of housing-market conditions in 28 metro areas.

But a large potential backlog of foreclosed properties hangs over many housing markets. Other headwinds including tight mortgage-lending standards that show few signs of easing. “These are times of continued, great uncertainty about home prices,” said Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist who co-founded the index that bears his name. “We might be on the verge of a home recovery, but then, maybe not.” Others are becoming somewhat optimistic. Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist in Leesburg, Va., said the S&P/Case-Shiller index should hit a bottom this spring. He said many analysts have overlooked positive developments, including a dearth of new construction and the falling share of homes selling out of foreclosure. “You don’t hear very many people talk about the actual housing stock, and how slow it’s growing,” he said, while conceding that it is “absolutely true that organic demand has yet to show any material rebound.”

Even when prices stop falling, they aren’t likely to rise for years, leaving millions of homeowners stuck in properties worth less than what they owe. “We’re looking at an L-shaped recovery,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist at real-estate website Zillow, who predicts another 3.7% decline in home prices for the coming year. In most of the country, home prices aren’t falling at anywhere near their jaw-dropping pace of 2008. But only two markets showed an increase in home prices during the fourth quarter. In Phoenix, home prices were up by 0.8%, while Miami reported a smaller gain of 0.2%. Detroit was the only city to post a year-over-year gain, rising by 0.5%. Home prices in Atlanta, meanwhile, fell by 12.8% last year, while Chicago posted a 6.5% decline. One surprising development in many housing markets is that the supply of homes for sale has fallen to a five-year low. While that normally would be a sign of health, real-estate agents say a paucity of homes is holding back sales.

At the current sales rate, it would take about four months to sell the supply of homes on the market in Denver, Washington, D.C., and Orange County, Calif. That level is lower, at less than three months, in Phoenix and San Francisco, and has dropped to just 1.9 months in Sacramento, Calif. But several markets still face supply-demand imbalances that could keep pressure on prices. New York’s Long Island had a 13-month supply of homes at the end of the fourth quarter. Nashville and Charlotte, N.C., had a 12-month supply, and northern New Jersey had a nearly 11-month supply. Those numbers will rise if banks sell more foreclosed properties as they correct deficient mortgage-handling practices.

Unemployment for 5 years

The US economic recovery is “frustratingly slow” and it could take four to five years to ratchet the unemployment rate down to about 6%, from more than 8% now, a top Federal Reserve official said yesterday. The recovery is held back by the housing market and Europe’s debt crisis among other headwinds, but monetary policy is now appropriately positioned to eventually achieve this “maximum employment” level, said Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto. “We do not have a good deal of concrete history for monetary policy to fit our current circumstances, but I am confident the Federal Reserve is making the most of its tools to move the economy in the right direction,” the Fed official said at an economic development meeting in Westfield Center, Ohio. Pianalto, a voter this year on the Fed’s policy-setting panel, is a moderate dove in line with Chairman Ben Bernanke’s core of policymakers who have taken aggressive action to bring down unemployment, which stands at 8.3% after rising above 9% last year. The US central bank in late 2008 slashed interest rates to near zero and has since bought $2.3 trillion in long-term securities in an unprecedented drive to spur growth and revive the economy after the worst recession in decades.

Olick – time to buy?

“Nobody wants to catch a falling knife. It is as simple as that. If potential buyers see continued home price erosion, they will stay parked on the sidelines. But as with everything else in this unique and historic housing market, perhaps the usual logic doesn’t apply. ‘Housing is one of the great investments right now. I tell people all the time when they come up to me, they say, ‘What should I do, Mr. Trump?’ I say go buy a house,’ said Donald Trump earlier today on CNBC. ‘It wouldn’t be an obvious mistake to buy a house now,’ hedged Robert Shiller, barely a few hours later. Perhaps they were just jumping off Warren Buffett’s declaration yesterday that if he had a way to manage them, he would buy a couple of hundred thousand single family homes and rent them out. Housing appears to be rated a ‘buy’ these days, especially among investors, who see a ripe and rising rental market and big potential for income. But is it the right time yet for what I call ‘organic’ buyers to get in? By this I mean people buying a home to actually live in it, raise a family in it, let the dog run around in the back yard. If prices are still falling, couldn’t an even better deal be waiting down the road a bit?

No. House prices will continue to fall on a national basis at least through 2012, but you have to look past national headlines to your local market, which is likely already recovering nicely. The trouble with the national numbers is that they are heavily weighted toward the lower end of the market and to the distressed end of the market. Around 73% of homes that sold in January were priced below $250,000, according to the National Association of Realtors. Forty-seven% of homes sold that same month were considered ‘distressed,’ which is either a foreclosure or a short sale (where the lender allows the borrower to sell for less than the value of the mortgage). With all the activity in these areas, no surprise that prices skew lower. The $250,000 to $500,000 price range may now be the sweet spot for the market. Sales in January were up in this price range, and if you have good credit, you are within GSE and FHA loan limits in most markets. While FHA just raised its insurance premiums, which may hurt much-needed first-time homebuyer demand, it is still one of the best loan products out there today, especially for those with lower down payments. You cannot time housing any more than you can time the stock market. True, housing moves far more slowly, but that works to its benefit, as prices don’t rise and fall on daily news or even on major events. Sales have clearly bottomed in housing, and prices always lag sales. They will lag longer this time around, no question, but they will come back. Supply and demand will eventually win out, even after an historic crash. If you can’t get a good mortgage now, then perhaps it’s not your time, but if you can, waiting may not buy you much.”

US conducts criminal libor probe

The US Justice Department is conducting a criminal probe into whether the world’s biggest banks manipulated a global benchmark rate that is at the heart of a wide range of loans and derivatives, from trillions of dollars of mortgages and bonds to interest rate swaps , a person familiar with the matter said. While the Justice Department’s inquiry into the setting of the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, was known, the criminal aspect of the probe was not. A criminal inquiry underscores the serious nature of a worldwide investigation that includes regulators and law-enforcement agencies in the United States, Japan, Canada and the UK. Several major global banks, including Citigroup, HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS, have disclosed that they have been approached by authorities investigating how Libor is set. No bank or trader has been criminally charged in the Libor probes. It wasn’t clear which banks or traders the Justice Department is targeting in its criminal probe.

Fannie loses $2.4 billion, asks for $4.6 billion

Fannie Mae lost $2.4 billion in the fourth quarter and asked the federal government for another $4.6 billion in bailouts. Fannie earned a $73 million profit the same period the year before. The government-sponsored enterprise reported a $16.8 billion loss for the entire year, widening 20% from the $14 billion in losses in 2010. Fannie paid $2.6 billion in dividends to the Treasury Department in the fourth quarter. Since entering conservatorship in 2008, Fannie received $116 billion in bailouts through the end of 2011 and paid back roughly $19.8 billion. A $6.1 billion increase in lost net fair value of its assets pushed a poorer performance in 2011. Significant declines in interest rates over the year pushed more losses on its risk management derivatives. Combined with Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, the federal government guaranteed more than 99% of mortgage-backed securities issued between 2009 and 2011, accounting for more than 85% of all single-family loans.

Fourth quarter revenues declined 8% to $4.5 billion from the year before. Revenues for the year actually increased 17% to $20.4 billion. Fannie charged off $4.7 billion in credit losses, increasing 40% from the same quarter in the prior year. The higher losses came from a slight increase in foreclosures. The mortgage giant repossessed more than 47,000 homes in the last three months of 2011, up from nearly 46,000 one year prior. The problem loans continue to rise from the books of business originated between 2005 and 2008. These loans cost Fannie $140 billion since 2009. Its becoming a smaller portion of the entire portfolio, though, shrinking to 31% at the end of 2011 from 39% the year before. “Our new single-family book now accounts for more than half of our overall single-family guaranty book of business,” said Fannie Mae CFO Susan McFarland.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

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About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2011, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 3,336 sides for a closed sales volume of
$430,902,643!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin February 27, 2012

Forward this e-mail to your friends!
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2012 – the year of the short sale?

By Tom Tryon: “Here is the real-time tale of two real estate markets. One market is depressed and distressed. Property values are down. Since mid-2006, residential values in Florida have declined by 51%. Hundreds of thousands of properties have been, or are, in foreclosure and huge numbers of homes have been repossessed. Consider these statewide numbers, presented by analyst Jack McCabe during last week’s Herald-Tribune Hot Topics forum:

- 150,000 residential properties in Florida have been repossessed, and are owned, by banks.

- 371,000 foreclosure cases are open in courts.

- 530,000 residential mortgage loans are at least 90 days past due and in default.

- 265,000 homeowners have not made a mortgage payment in more than two years.

- 1 million residences are in some form “distressed,” whether in foreclosure, owned by banks or in default.

- 46% of mortgages “under water” – in other words, the debt exceeds the current market value of the residential property.

Add this number – 809, the average number of days to process a foreclosure in Florida – and it’s easier to understand why so-called short sales, in which owners and mortgage holders sell at steep losses, are viewed as advantageous options and positive movements in the total market. The overriding question posed during the forum was: Will 2012 be the Year of the Short Sale? The answer, expressed by the overwhelming consensus of McCabe, the guest speaker, the panel – Michael Braga and Harold Bubil of the Herald-Tribune; attorneys Nancy Cason and Tom Avrutis – and audience was: Yes. There was one caveat: 2013 might be the Second Year of the Short Sale. That’s because the volume of pending foreclosures — and the imminent threat of even more, could make it impossible to clear this “shadow inventory” from the real estate market. There was widespread agreement among the 150 people — analysts, lawyers, bankers, real estate agents and developers — who attended the forum that more lenders are warming to short sales, despite the bottom-line effects of writing off losses. What’s more, the homeowners in financial peril are overcoming the psychological hurdles – and coming to terms with the financial implications of – short sales.

The real estate market is so complex that it’s impossible to cover in a multi-day symposium, much less a 90-minute forum. But I took away two simple points: 1) The current market is like a summer day in Florida: Dark and cloudy during one part of the day, with scattered sunshine and the possibility of bright days ahead; 2) It’s no wonder my wife and I have stayed in the same home for 25 years; real estate makes my head spin.”

Oil prices on the way up

Oil prices are poised to gain for the third straight week, undermining global equity market sentiment and threatening the fragile economic recovery. A CNBC poll of analysts and traders showed 12 out of 16 respondents, or 75%, expect oil prices to rise this week. Three believe prices will fall and one expects no change. Though the bulls comprise the overwhelming majority, many are lightening long positions, or bets that prices will rise, as they believe the recent rally is showing signs of fatigue. “You have to trade from the buy side but I would be reducing my long positions ahead of the weekend,” said Tom James, Chairman & Co-Founder, Navitas Resources, in an email on Thursday. “The fundamentals in the physical market don’t support the current short term price.” James added that he was looking to add long positions on any pullback in Brent crude to $115. “Target for the year is now $150 on longer term basis for Brent.”

Numerous respondents this week are warning higher retail gasoline prices could threaten the fragile economic recovery in the US David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer, of Cumberland Advisors said an additional penny a gallon on gasoline translates roughly to a $1.4 billion decrease in US annual spending power. The average US price of gasoline jumped 18 cents a gallon in the past two weeks to $3.69 on Feb. 24, according to the nationwide Lundberg Survey, Reuters reported. But supplies of fuel remained plentiful in most of the country, the survey found. At $4.24 a gallon, San Diego had the highest average price for regular unleaded gasoline on Feb. 24, while the lowest price was $3.07 a gallon in Denver. Some believe gasoline prices may average $4.50 a gallon or as high as $5.00, damaging demand ahead of the peak summer driving season.

Olick – builders say good market trumps energy prices

“Sales of newly built homes are still stumbling along at historically low levels, but builders claim they are beginning to see the light at the end of a very long tunnel. Sales may not be surging back, but in some of the better local economies, buyer interest is. We saw it at open houses over the President’s Day weekend, and it’s starting to show up on line even more dramatically. Virginia-based NewHomesGuide.com, the website of New Homes Guide magazine, saw a 46% jump in unique visitors from December 2011 to January 2012 and a 47% jump from one year ago. Page views were up 59%. ‘We always see a seasonal jump in January,’ said Publisher, Leslie Stritmatter in a press release, ‘but the increases from the same period last year show this to be a much more significant bounce. I’m very hopeful that this is a sign of consumer confidence returning to the markets.’ Consumer sentiment is improving. ‘Right now the improving labor market trumped rising gasoline prices in influencing confidence, which is good in that new jobs and wages can help cushion the blow of an ever rising cost of living,’ says analyst Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak.

When it comes to housing, the same may be true of high affordability, improving employment, better confidence, record-low mortgage rates and lower-priced homes; they all trump rising gasoline prices. ‘We don’t think there’s going to be a big impact from gas prices because we have so many forces taking us to recovery,’ says Richard Kettler of Kettler/Forlines Homes. Kettler says they have seen a substantial increase recently in the number of visits to his homes, which largely straddle the suburbs and exurbs of Washington, DC. ‘The attitude of the home buyer is much better, they’re more excited,’ he adds. He also notes there is now suddenly more interest in larger homes, not McMansions, but moving from the 2 thousand square foot range to 3000. Higher gas prices may not hit buyer demand overall, but they will affect some choices. ‘We are more sensitive today because of the economic scenario we are still recovering from,’ says Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic. ‘From a housing perspective, this impacts the exurban communities, as an increased cost of living will reduce demand to buy homes, and these are the same communities hit the hardest by the housing crash anyway.’ A study by the Federal Reserve in 2010 found that a 10% increase in gas prices reduces home construction by 10% after four years in locations with a long average commute time, compared with other locations.

The effect of higher gas prices on home buyers will depend on how long the spike lasts. If consumers think it’s temporary, they won’t factor it as much into their decision. There are, however, continuing obstacles to the new home market. Sales are still barely above where they were last year, and last year was the worst on record for the nation’s builders. This despite all the stimulus in the market. And as I’m writing this, Mr. Kettler just came out of his office, grumbling that one of his sales is being held up by an appraisal that came in too low.”

Debt ceiling fight on the way

Remember the bitter debt ceiling debate in Washington last summer? Well, another showdown could be in the offing sooner than planned. The deal cut this summer to end the debt ceiling standoff provided for a $2.1 trillion increase in the country’s legal borrowing limit, which now stands at $16.394 trillion. At the time, it was estimated that such an increase could carry the Treasury Department safely beyond the contentious presidential election season and into early 2013. But now that Congress has extended the payroll tax cut, emergency unemployment benefits and the so-called Medicare doc fix — only some of which was paid for – there is a greater chance that US borrowing could reach the debt ceiling sooner. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner recently told lawmakers that even with passage of the payroll tax bill – which will add an estimated $101 billion to deficits in fiscal year 2012 — he doesn’t expect the debt limit to be reached “until quite late in the year.” That’s a hair past the Nov. 6 election but smack dab in the middle of the fiscal firefight that Congress is expected to have over the expiring Bush tax cuts.

Meanwhile, the Bipartisan Policy Center, which analyzed projected monthly deficits and other factors that could play a role in Treasury’s borrowing, now projects that the debt ceiling could be hit between late November 2012 and early January 2013. Of course, if need be, the Center notes that Treasury could still avert a US default by employing “extraordinary measures” — such as suspending investments in federal retirement funds. So even if Treasury is at risk of hitting the ceiling at the end of November, it’s possible that its moves could take the risk of default off the table until early 2013. Keep in mind, though, that these estimates assume nothing material changes between now and the end of the year to increase federal borrowing. But if there are any surprises along the way — such as a slowdown in the economic recovery that puts a crimp in federal revenue, or more unpaid-for legislation — the debt ceiling could be hit before Election Day, said longtime political observer Norm Ornstein, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Either way, the presidential election, the pending expiration of the Bush tax cuts and the debt ceiling are a combustible mix. And it’s impossible to predict the endgame for any of them yet. Much will depend on when the ceiling is breached and who wins the election, Ornstein said.

Florida’s “category 5″ foreclosure problem

Already facing overloaded dockets of criminal and civil cases, Florida’s court system is getting hit by a deluge of foreclosures that could tie up the state’s legal system for years to come, according to nationally prominent lawyer. “It’s Florida’s Category 5 foreclosure hurricane,” said Kendall Coffey, a legal expert and author of “Foreclosures in Florida,” a book he discussed during a Space Coast Tiger Bay Club dinner in Cocoa Beach. “Collateral damage can be seen in every sector of life,” he said. “The collapsing real estate market inflicted waves of unemployment, massive losses in the financial and real estate industries, and an untold human cost for the families forced out of homes auctioned at public sales. The mortgage meltdown has also battered local governments with a deteriorating tax base.” There are 368,000 pending home foreclosures in the state, and that number could double by 2016, Coffey said. “In contrast to most states that employ abbreviated processes for deeding the mortgaged property back to the lender, every foreclosure action in Florida is a lawsuit governed by the same rules for pleadings and court hearings that apply to other civil litigation,” said Coffey, who added the average foreclosure in Florida takes 806 days. “We’re not just going to hand it over to the lender.”

“Foreclosures in Florida” details aspects of Florida law along with legal and practical strategies for lenders and borrowers embroiled in default issues, work-outs and litigation over troubled mortgage loans. Coffey is partner in the Coffey Burlington law firm in Miami and has a home in Brevard County. He’s a former US attorney, legal analyst for the CNN, MSNBC and Fox networks and author. He was among the lawyers representing Al Gore during the 2000 presidential election recount dispute. His latest book, “Spinning the Law,” looks at the art of trying cases in the court of public opinion. The foreclosure crisis that began with skyrocketing default notices in 2006 has engulfed the nation, but hit Florida especially hard. Half of state’s homes are “underwater,” meaning owners owe more on their mortgages than their home is worth. The state’s real estate driven economy is generating floodtides of litigation and has spawned an industry of foreclosure defense lawyers who rely on overwhelmed court dockets to stave off foreclosure and keep clients in their homes, Coffey said. “Florida still has and will have one of the slowest rates of foreclosure in the country,” he said. How will the consumer fare? “Ultimately,” Coffey said, “homeowners will lose a contested foreclosure in the overwhelming majority of cases.”

More buyers paying with cash

Even more American homebuyers are paying cash to acquire homes, according to a new survey from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance. The group’s HousingPulse Tracking Survey said between October and January, the number of homeowners purchasing residences with cash grew from 30.8% to 34.1%. This trend is occurring at a time when mortgage rates are holding low. The survey noted that all-cash buyers are getting discounts of approximately 10%. Homebuyers who turned to cash purchases are doing so because of the slow underwriting process late appraisals and long-wait times when dealing with certain loans, the report said. “It is taking about 60 days to close a non-troubled FHA loan. About 30 days longer than usually a year ago,” an agent in Florida told the survey team. To release its report, the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking survey interviewed 2,500 real estate agents across the country.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2011, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 3,336 sides for a closed sales volume of
$430,902,643!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin February 20, 2012

Forward this e-mail to your friends!
Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

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************************************************************

New bill to speed up short sales

Senators Lisa Murkowski, Scott Brown, and Sherrod Brown are proposing a bill requiring mortgage lenders to make a prompt decision on whether to allow a short sale at the request of a home buyer. The bill, “Prompt Notification of Short Sales Act,” will require a written response from the lender no later than 75 days after the receipt of the written request from the buyer. This bill will require that the lender’s written response to the buyer must specify whether the request was approved, if more time is required, and, if they do need more time, the servicer must estimate a date a decision will be reached. The loan servicer is limited to one extension no longer than 21 days. This will give the distressed homeowner a more definite timeline for when the short sale will be completed so they can plan their move better.

Back in April 2011, Representatives Thomas Rooney of Florida and Robert Andrews of New Jersey introduced a similar version of the bill but it never came up for debate before a House committee before the legislative session ended. The previous version said that that if a borrower submitted a written request for a short sale of a home and if they didn’t receive a written response within 45 days, the request would be considered approved. This new version extends the response time for lenders but includes a penalty if they fail to comply. If the loan servicer doesn’t respond to a buyer’s request within the 75 day period, the buyer may be awarded $1000, plus reasonable attorney fees, per violation of the Act (this Act does not apply to mortgages where the borrower and the servicer have entered into a written agreement before the date of the enactment of this Act). The new bill would hold banks accountable to specific standards that they must follow, streamlining the process for everyone involved in the short sale transaction. It would make short sales more attractive to buyers and eliminate the uncertainty related to buying a short sale, resulting in more sales of distressed properties. This reduction of housing inventory will assist the stabilization of home prices and the real estate market.

Greece – again

Euro zone finance ministers are expected to approve a second bailout for Greece today to try to draw a line under months of uncertainty that has shaken the currency bloc, although work remains to be done to make the numbers add up. Diplomats and economists say they do not expect the package to resolve Greece’s economic problems. That could take a decade or more, a bleak prospect that brought thousands of Greeks onto the streets to protest against austerity measures on Sunday. French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said all the elements were in place to reach an agreement and Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said he expected a deal. The finance ministers are scheduled to meet at around 1500 GMT. Euro zone ministers need to agree new measures to make the financing work, given the ever-worsening state of the Greek economy. But they say an agreement on Monday will help restructure Athens’ vast debts, put it on a more stable financial footing and keep it inside the 17-country euro zone. Senior Greek finance ministry and European Central Bank officials held a conference call on Sunday to go over the final details of the 130-billion-euro ($171-billion) program, including a report assessing the likelihood of Greece lowering its debt which is critical to the International Monetary Fund. While there is skepticism in Germany and other countries that Greece will be able to meet its commitments, including implementing 3.3 billion euros of spending cuts and tax increases, officials said momentum was building for a deal.

Olick – fewer foreclosures mean lower prices?

“For years now we have been harping on how distressed home sales put downward pressure on home prices all around them. Close to twelve million borrowers are now in a negative equity position on their homes because so many other borrowers were unable to afford their mortgages. The logical assumption would then be that as foreclosures ease, organic home prices will rebound. But what if the current, unique state of the housing market turns that assumption on its head? Foreclosure sales now make up a full one third of the market nationally and far higher percentages in states like California, Florida, Nevada, and Georgia. The supply of these properties has actually been dropping, pushing prices higher, even in the distressed category. There is huge investor and first-time home buyer demand for distressed properties at the low end of the market, and that has helped stabilize prices. ‘We believe the distressed part of the housing market has already bottomed,’ said Morgan Stanley analyst Oliver Chang on CNBC’s Squawkbox. ‘The bid that we see from the investor is the reason for this bottom.’ He sees further declines in organic home prices. Why?

Banks have been very slow to release their repossessed (REO) inventory onto the market, not to mention that foreclosure processing delays have literally millions of properties still sitting in foreclosure limbo. There is a dwindling supply of foreclosures and rising investor demand. Analysts keep pointing to overall falling inventories, but the current existing home sales pace doesn’t account for that drop. The fact is that with so much of the supply distressed, and so few organic sellers putting their homes up for sale, the inventory drop is artificially skewed to the recent lack of movement in foreclosures and a crisis of confidence among potential organic home sellers. Okay, so what about the fact that banks are ramping up the process now, which could put more properties on the market? That could boost supply, were it not for a new government program to sell foreclosures in bulk to large investors. Chang says over $1 billion in investor capital has been raised over just the past six weeks to take advantage of this new program, and he claims this could add up to 1.8 million jobs. Property managers, renovators, rental agents, he says would benefit from these bulk rental investments.

Mortgage analyst Mark Hanson, however, disagrees. He claims that individual investors will likely spend more on upgrades/renovations than bulk investors and will then sell to owner-occupants at a higher price, thereby not only stabilizing but increasing overall home values, while also juicing jobs. ‘Due to epidemic effective negative equity (not having enough equity to pay a Realtor and put a down payment on a new house) the repeat buyer cohort has been cut in half since 2007. They now make up the minority of national resales,’ says Hanson. ‘Investors and first-time buyers ARE the real estate market,’ he adds. ‘Investors and first timers want REO and short sales. Anything done to prevent the flow of distressed property will hurt the volume of existing home sales and all of the economic benefit that comes along with them. An REO-to-rent program will bring about record lows in monthly existing home sales volume. And volume precedes price.’ Hanson believes that when the distressed supply is choked off, by selling REO in bulk to rent, not re-sell, then the only thing you have left is meager organic sales. ‘The housing market will implode,’ he adds.

Yes, lower supply, in a normal market, would generally mean a return to home price appreciation, but that’s not the way today’s market is working because organic demand is still so weak and is hampered by tight credit. There is even less demand for mid- to higher-priced homes. ‘$200K to $300K is the new normal for home builders,’ says Rick Palacios of John Burns Real Estate Consulting. ‘Since new home prices peaked in 2007, new single-family sales of over $500K have been more than cut in half, dropping from 13% to just 6% of all new home transactions. The existing home market is much the same, with the bulk of sales and demand in the very low price tiers. It just goes to show that in the historic recovery from an historic housing crash, the usual rules just don’t apply.”

Iran drives oil higher

Oil prices jumped to a nine-month high above $105 a barrel on Monday after Iran said it halted crude exports to Britain and France in an escalation of a dispute over the Middle Eastern country’s nuclear program. By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark March crude was up $1.91 to $105.15 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the day, it rose to $105.21, the highest since May. The contract rose 93 cents to settle at $103.24 per barrel in New York on Friday. Markets in the United States are closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Iran’s oil ministry said Sunday it stopped crude shipments to British and French companies in an apparent pre-emptive blow against the European Union after the bloc imposed sanctions on Iran’s crucial fuel exports. They include a freeze of the country’s central bank assets and an oil embargo set to begin in July. Iran’s Oil Minister Rostam Qassemi had warned earlier this month that Tehran could cut off oil exports to “hostile” European nations. The 27-nation EU accounts for about 18 percent of Iran’s oil exports.

The EU sanctions, along with other punitive measures imposed by the U.S., are part of Western efforts to derail Iran’s disputed nuclear program, which the West fears is aimed at developing atomic weapons. Iran denies the charges, and says its program is for peaceful purposes. Analysts said Iran’s announcement would likely have minimal impact on supplies, because only about 3 percent of France’s oil consumption is from Iranian sources, while Britain had not imported oil from the Islamic republic in six months. “The price rise is more a reflection of concerns about the further escalation in tensions between Iran and the West,” said commodity analyst Caroline Bain of the Economist Intelligence Unit. “Banning the tiny quantities of exports to the U.K. and France involves very little risk for Iran — indeed quite the opposite, it catches the headlines and leads to a higher global oil price, which is something Iran is very keen to encourage.”

Mortgage-backed bonds making a comeback

Some Wall Street investors made money as the mortgage market boomed; others profited when it fell apart. Having reaped big gains during both of those turns, Greg Lippmann, a former star trader at Deutsche Bank, is now catching the next upswing: buying the same securities built from mortgages that he bet against before the financial crisis erupted. Mr. Lippmann is joined by other big-money investors — mutual funds like Fidelity as well as hedge funds — in riding a wave of interest in the same complex loan pools that nearly washed away the financial system. The attraction is the price. Some mortgage bonds are so cheap that even in the worst forecasts, with home prices falling as much as 10 percent and foreclosures rising, investors say they can still make money. “Given its significant underperformance in 2011, we believe the product is as cheap to broader markets as it has been in a long time,” Mr. Lippmann, whose portfolio is heavy with subprime mortgage securities, wrote in a recent letter to investors.

Yet the tide could turn again and wipe out investors. Chief among the risks is Europe: the Continent’s banks still hold a significant amount of United States mortgage securities, and if they are forced to sell assets, it could wreak havoc on the market. Washington is a question mark, too. If banks have to pay for loans they issued under dubious circumstances, it would be a home run for investors, who could receive full payment for a mortgage in a security they bought at a discount. But if borrowers whose houses are worth less than their mortgages are able to reduce their principals on a large scale, bond investors could suffer because the securities would be worth even less than they paid. “As a money manager, you can’t close your eyes to that potential outcome,” said Jeffrey Gundlach, a founder of DoubleLine Capital, who has been buying mortgage securities since 2008. “To believe that this time we are really out of the woods and the prices will not drop again is dangerous. People made that argument a year ago.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin February 15, 2012

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MBA – applications down

Mortgage applications decreased 1.0% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 10, 2012. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index was essentially unchanged compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.8% from the previous week to its highest level since August 8, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 8.4% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.3% compared with the previous week and was 7.6% lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.45%.

The four week moving average is down 3.87% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 0.21% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 81.1% of total applications from 80.5% the previous week. This is the highest refinance share since January 20, 2012. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.4% from 6.0% of total applications from the previous week. The average loan size in the United States in January 2012 was $226,000. Average loan size has been increasing in recent months, up from $225,000 in December 2011 and up from $207,000 in January 2011. The District of Columbia has the highest average loan size in the nation at $375,000 while Indiana had the lowest average loan size at $143,000. Across the country, the average loan size was $217,000 for home purchase applications and $228,000 for refinances in the month of January.

Tentative deal on payroll tax

One day after House Republican leaders said they would offer a bill to extend the $100 billion payroll tax rollback for millions of working Americans without requiring spending cuts to pay for it, the Congressional negotiators struck a broader deal that would also extend unemployment benefits and prevent a large cut in reimbursements to doctors who accept Medicare. A vote on the measure would most likely happen by Friday, when Congress is set to recess for a week. But senior aides warned that negotiators still had to sign off formally on the agreement and that obstacles could surface given the long-running tensions over the measure.

Democrats, elated after winning the Republican tax concession after months of clashes, said they had also been able to beat back new conditions that Republicans had wanted on jobless pay, like requiring beneficiaries to seek high school equivalency degrees, and had found middle ground on Republican attempts to significantly reduce the number of weeks in which the unemployed could draw benefits. Republicans did make Democrats pay for the added unemployment benefits through changes to federal pensions, aides said. More important, Republican leaders and their advisers said that they had removed an election-year hammer from the hands of President Obama and Congressional Democrats, depriving them of the ability to keep pounding on the idea that Republicans were resistant to tax cuts for the middle class.

Inventory declines temporary

Crucial housing market metrics are beginning to look better to start the year, but the recent uptick may only be the result of a delayed foreclosure process. At the end of January, most metro areas saw prices stabilizing, even picking up in some of the hardest hit areas like Miami and Las Vegas, according to Altos Research. The average home price in Miami was $465,068, up more than 7% from the previous three months. In Vegas, where prices were cut by more than half during the downturn, prices increased 2% over the same period, cresting more than $140,000. Inventory is also declining in these cities. “In many markets, tight inventory of quality properties is another contributing factor keeping a floor on home prices this spring,” Altos said. In the 20 metro areas the company covers, inventory declined more than 14% from November to January. Vegas, especially was making progress. The city held fewer than 11,000 properties in its inventory at the end of last month, down more than 38% from November levels. Declining inventories do not necessarily stem from higher home sales these days but may rather be a product of fewer REO hitting the market. Completed foreclosures in Nevada dropped 26% to 6,328 in 2011 from nearly 8,000 the year before, according to RealtyTrac. From November to December alone, inventory declined in Vegas by 27%, a change Altos called “staggering.” With mortgage servicers putting the AG settlement behind them in January, the process may be rebooted soon, pushing inventories higher by the end of the year.

Manufacturing highest in years

The New York Fed’s “Empire State” general business conditions index climbed to 19.53 from 13.48 in January, topping economists’ expectations for 15.0. It was the highest level since June 2010. The index has bounced back strongly from a summer slump as the region contracted alongside a broader manufacturing slowdown. The survey of manufacturing plants in the state is one of the earliest monthly guideposts to US factory conditions. US stock index futures added to gains immediately following the data, though investors were also focused on efforts by Greece to salvage its needed bailout deal. “It’s better-than-expected and consistent with the idea that the US economy is picking up steam as the year gets started,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington. “The question is whether or not the data will have an impact on the market or take a back seat to developments in Europe. For now the focus is on Europe.”

The new orders index slipped to 9.73 from 13.70, while inventories dropped to minus 4.71 from 6.59. Employment gauges were relatively steady, with the index for the number of employees dipping to 11.76 from 12.09 and the average employee workweek index rising to 7.06 from 6.59. Manufacturers were slightly less optimistic about the coming months with the index of business conditions six months ahead falling to 50.38 from 54.87.

Fixed rate on a roll

More than 95% of refinancing borrowers chose fixed-rate loans in the fourth-quarter of 2011, Freddie Mac said in its quarterly product transition report. The government-sponsored enterprise said refinancing borrowers overwhelmingly continued to prefer fixed-rate loans even if their original loans were adjustable-rate mortgages. Of those borrowers in a 30-year, 43% decided to refinance into shorter loan terms of 15- or 20-years, Freddie’s report said. Meanwhile, 58% of borrowers with hybrid ARMs moved into fixed-rate loans during the fourth quarter, while the remaining 42% chose to refinance into the same type of loan product they held earlier. “Fixed mortgage rates averaged 4% for 30-year loans and 3.30% for 15-year loan products during the fourth quarter,” said Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist for Freddie Mac. Borrowers wanting lower refinance rates were able to get them even when shortening their loan terms in the fourth-quarter. The interest rate on a 15-year, FRM was only 0.7 percentage points lower than the 30-year, FRM during the fourth quarter, Nothaft said. “And for borrowers who plan to remain in their current home for only a few years, the hybrid ARM allows for even a greater interest-rate savings. The initial interest rate on a 5/1 hybrid ARM was about 1.1 percentage points lower than on a 30-year fixed-rate loan.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com