Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin June 20, 2011
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Two big banks getting out of reverse mortgages
The nation’s two biggest providers of reverse mortgages are no longer offering the reverse mortgage loans, as the economics of the business have come under pressure. Wells Fargo, the largest provider, said on Thursday that it was leaving the business, following the departure in February of Bank of America, the second-largest lender. With the two biggest players gone — together, they accounted for 43% of the business, according to Reverse Market Insight — prospective borrowers may find it more difficult to access the mortgages. Reverse mortgages allow people age 62 and older to tap what may be their biggest asset, their home equity, without having to make any payments. Instead, the bank pays the borrowers, though they continue to be responsible for paying property taxes and homeowner’s insurance.
But the loans have increasingly become a riskier proposition. Banks are not allowed to assess borrowers’ ability to keep up with all their payments, and more borrowers do not have the wherewithal to stay current on their homeowners’ insurance and property taxes, both of which have risen in many parts of the country. At the same time, borrowers have been taking the maximum amount of money available, often using it to pay off any remaining money owed on the home. Yet home prices continue to slide.
“We are on new ground here,” said Franklin Codel, head of national consumer lending at Wells Fargo. “With house prices falling, you reach a crossover point where they owe more than the house is worth and it creates risk for us as mortgage servicers and for HUD.” He was referring to the Department of Housing and Urban Development, whose Federal Housing Administration arm insures the vast majority of these loans through its Home Equity Conversion Mortgage program. As a result, banks are seeing a rise in what are known as technical defaults, when homeowners fall behind on their taxes or homeowner’s insurance, both of which are required to avoid foreclosure. According to Reverse Market Insight, about 4 to 5 percent of active reverse mortgages, or 25,000 to 30,000 borrowers, are in default on at least one of those items.
Miserable Misery Index
The unofficial Misery Index, first compiled during the soaring inflation days of the 1970s by economist Arthur Okun, totals the unemployment and inflation rates and is at a 28-year high, reflective of how weak the economic recovery has been and how far there is to go. It’s at 12.7—9.1% for unemployment and 3.6% for annualized inflation—a number not seen since 1983. The index has been above 10 since November 2009 and had been under double-digits from June 1993 through May 2008. “The good news is that other measures suggest conditions aren’t quite that bad and over the next 18 months the gloom should lift a little,” the firm’s chief US economist wrote in a Misery analysis. “The bad news is that households won’t be in the mood to boost their spending significantly for several more years.”
Dales says all the misery may not be as bad as it appears. An alternative measure, put forth in 1999 by Robert Barro, encompasses a wider swath of misery, measuring employment against the so-called “natural rate” and compares inflation against the previous 10 years. The Barro measure also looks at whether gross domestic product is below its “potential” and compares yields on the 10-year Treasury note against the yields of the previous 10 years. With all that rolled in, Dales says the Barro index is indicating that while things aren’t expected to get dramatically better, the level of misery is probably at a peak and should roll back over the next 18 months.
Olick – hard to make a call on housing
[Friday's] report on consumer confidence, or the striking lack of it, is yet another sign that housing is going to be in a very sticky state for a while. It’s hard to say whether housing is weighing on confidence or lack of confidence is weighing on housing; the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Next week is a big week for housing because we get the all-important readings on existing and new home sales for May. The pending home sales index, based on contracts signed, not closings, fell dramatically in April, and that has the housing prognosticators building another arc for the flood of bad news yet to come. Home builder sentiment fell in June, largely based on competition from distressed properties and high material costs, but you can bet the builders know we’re in for some tough sales numbers in their market as well.
I know I’ve said this before, but here I go again: All real estate is local, but confidence is national. Potential summer buyers, who are historically few and far between, will be watching the national numbers, as they try to time the bottom of the market, which is of course impossible to do. You can’t time the bottom of this market, because it will likely bounce along the bottom for several years. You also have no historical perspective because we’ve never seen a crash like this ever before. The two greatest factors that will keep us bouncing are the huge volume of distressed properties and uncertainty over the direction of new regulation in the mortgage market. Regulators pushed back the deadline for a huge decision on risk retention for the mortgage market, and that has talk abounding that the entire proposal is going back to the drawing board. This is the proposal that would require, among many other things, a 20% down payment on loans for them to be exempt from risk retention. Without that, banks would have to hold 5% risk on their books when securitizing the loan.
All this uncertainty in the mortgage market, piled on top of all kinds of new regulations now going into action, just makes lending more expensive for the banks and borrowing more expensive for consumers. It’s no surprise that confidence in housing is so low, despite the fact that now may in fact be one of the best times to get into the housing market. You just have to have a long view, which foreign buyers apparently have but Americans sorely lack.
Oil drops to 4 month low
Oil fell to the lowest in four months in New York, bringing its decline from this year’s peak to 20%, on speculation a weakening global economy and Greece’s debt crisis will lead to reduced fuel demand. Futures slid as much as 2% today, erasing this year’s gains, as European governments failed to agree on releasing a loan payout to spare Greece from default and Japan’s exports dropped in May more than forecast. Crude traded for a second day below its 200-day moving average, a major technical- support level. Today’s low marked a 20% decline from its 2011 settlement high in April, the sign of a bear market. “The fear is that a Greek tragedy will lead to another 2008-style recession that will drive prices lower,” said Thorbjoern Bak Jensen, an analyst at Global Risk Management in Middelfart, Denmark. “But I think that the European Union will consider Greece too big to fail.”
Crude for July delivery fell as much as $1.87 to $91.14 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the lowest intraday price since Feb. 22 and below $91.38, the final settlement price of 2010. It was at $91.55 at 9.59 a.m. London time. Futures reached a 2011 settlement high of $113.93 on April 29. A 20% decline is typically considered to be an indicator of a bear market. The July contract expires tomorrow. August futures are down $1.31, or 1.4%, at $92.09.
PNC to buy RBC
Mortgage lender PNC Financial Services Group Inc. agreed to buy RBC Bank, the U.S. banking subsidiary of Royal Bank of Canada, for $3.45 billion. PNC Mortgage, a subsidiary of PNC Financial, is the 20th largest mortgage originator in the United States, originating $10.5 billion in home loans last year alone. Once the transaction closes in March, the acquisition of RBC Bank will add $25 billion in assets, 424 bank branches, $19 billion in deposits and $16 billion in loan balances to the PNC Financial network. RBC’s current allowance for loan losses is in the $755 million-range, according to PNC. “The addition of RBC Bank provides PNC a great opportunity to enter attractive southeast markets in a way that will create value for our shareholders,” said James Rohr, PNC’s chairman and chief executive officer. RBC Bank has branches in North Carolina, Florida, Alabama, Georgia, Virginia and South Carolina. Combined the two firms will have 2,870 bank branches, making it the fifth largest network in the United States.
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Chris McLaughlin
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A large number of homeowners across the country are confronting defects in their homes largely on account of construction faults. As the housing sector expanded aggressively in the last couple of decades, the industry has been besieged with a shortage of skilled manpower and quality construction materials. In addition, tardiness of municipalities in inspecting and certifying homes contributed to the problem. Criterium Engineers, a building-inspection firm, has estimated that 17% of newly built houses in 2006 had at least two significant defects, up from 15% in 2003. Paul Amirata, vice president of claims at Axa Insurance, says construction-defect claims being filed are “pretty severe in terms of the total damage alleged.” The drop in real-estate values has exacerbated the problem. Those with faulty houses find that repairs often cost more than the value of the home. In addition, many do not have the equity to leverage in order to pay for repairs. In case of house defects what is the remedy for homeowners? The National Association of Home builders believes litigation is an inefficient way of resolving issue related to construction defects and says homebuyers should consider using “alternative dispute resolution including mandatory, binding arbitration in consumer contracts.”
According to a report released by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision, the number of loan modifications rose in the first quarter of this year. The report also said there was an increase in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in the first quarter. John Dugan, Comptroller of the Currency, said: “While I’m very concerned about the rise in delinquent mortgages and foreclosure actions, the shift in emphasis by servicers to more sustainable, payment-reducing modifications is a positive step that should show significant benefits in the coming months.” Servicers carried out 185,156 loan modifications in the first quarter; this is a rise of 55% from the previous quarter. Seriously delinquent mortgages – loans that are 60 days or more past due – rose 9% from the previous quarter. Delinquencies in prime loans increased by over 20% from the previous quarter and foreclosures stood at 2.5% of all serviced loans. Despite the bad news, analysts believe the loan modification program introduced by the Obama administration is gaining traction and will benefit a large number of homeowners in the coming months.
The Conference Board (TCB), an industry group, said consumer confidence dropped in June after rising in May. TCB’s index of consumer attitudes declined to 49.3 in June from a reading of 54.8 in May. The Present Situation Index, which measures overall consumer sentiments toward the present economic situation, dropped from 29.7 in May to 25.8 in June. Millan Mulraine, economics strategist with TD Securities, said: “On balance, this was a disappointing report as it has clearly bucked the trend of improving consumer sentiments in the past few months. Moreover, with the details of the report uniformly weak, we are left with the impression that this was an outright slump in consumer confidence.” Among the consumers who participated in the survey conducted to gather information on consumer sentiment in the current quarter, 4.6% said they had plans to buy an automobile within 6 months; in contrast to 5.7% in the previous quarter. Those with plans of buying a home dropped from 2.8% to 2.7% while those planning to buy a major appliance dropped to 26.5% from 29.2%. Inflation rate expectations for 12 months rose to 5.9% from 5.6% in May. “Consumers are making a more somber and accurate assessment of the economy and their own financial position,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia. “Consumers may be thinking less bad is not good enough.”
New York private-equity firm Quadrangle Group has offered a three-year sublease for 10,000 square feet at $85 a square foot, a discount of 32% to the 2006 rate. Taconic Capital Advisors has offered 50,000 square feet near Central Park at $80 a square foot, denoting a 22% discount to the rate being paid by Taconic. Hedge funds and other firms, when they sublet space, are likely to lose millions of dollars over the life of the building lease. Buyers looking for space are getting great bargains. Brian Rance, U.S. managing partner of law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, says, “It’s a complete buyer’s market.”