Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin June 30, 2011
Forward this e-mail to your friends!
Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:
http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/
*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>
http://www.mclaughlinchris.com
*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>
http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
************************************************************
Fannie Mae single family delinquencies fall
Fannie Mae’s conventional serious single-family mortgage delinquency rate fell five basis points to 4.14% in May, down from 4.19% a month earlier and from 5.15% a year ago, according to the government-sponsored enterprise’s monthly summary. The multi-family serious mortgage delinquency rate also declined from 0.57% in April to 0.52% last month. As public officials continue to ponder the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Fannie’s gross mortgage portfolio declined at a compound annualized rate of 13.5% in May. Last month, the GSE’s gross mortgage portfolio balance stood at $737.8 billion, compared to $746.8 billion a year earlier. Fannie Mae is required to reduce its size further by the end of the year.
According to MBS analysts at Deutsche Bank, the Fannie Mae maximum allowable limit stands at $729 billion by end-2011. Of the current portfolio, $419 billion (56%) is in whole loans, $231 billion (31%) is Fannie Mae MBS, $80 billion (11%) is non-agency MBS and $16 billion (2%) is non-Fannie Mae agency MBS. During the month of May, Fannie Mae completed 16,419 loan modifications, bringing the total number of loan mods completed by the GSE in 2011 to 84,133. Year-to-date, Fannie Mae’s end-balance for all mortgage-backed securities in its portfolio stands at $234.674 billion, compared to $287.470 billion a year ago. At the end of May, Fannie held more than $16 billion in non-Fannie agency mortgage-backed securities and $79.3 billion in non-agency, non-Fannie mortgage securities. Also year-to-date, the firm’s total balance on Fannie guaranteed securities and mortgage loans is $2.7 billion, compared to $2.74 billion in May of last year.
Unemployment down slightly
The Labor Department says there were 428,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended June 25 — 1,000 fewer than the week before. It marked the 12th straight week initial claims have stayed above the 400,000 mark — and was worse than the 420,000 claims economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected. The four-week moving average of initial claims, calculated to smooth out volatility, increased to 426,750, up 500 claims from the week before. Continuing claims — which include people filing for the second week of benefits or more — fell to 3,702,000 in the week ended June 18 — also falling short of economists’ forecasts for 3,700,000 ongoing claims. California, New Jersey and Florida saw claims rise the most in the week ending June 18, the most recent data available. Meanwhile, Ohio saw the biggest drop in unemployment claims, with 2,769 fewer people filing claims in that state. Illinois and New York followed, each with drops of 2,000 or more.
Olick – Realtors slam lack of HUD funds
“[Yesterday's] bullish report on pending home sales came with a caveat from the Realtors: ‘If banks would simply return to normal, sound underwriting standards and begin lending to more creditworthy borrowers, we’d get a much faster recovery in the housing sector,’ said National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. That part has been their mantra for months. No surprise there. But then: ‘In addition, a nonsensical situation has developed recently in some states with HUD unable to complete foreclosure deals because of insufficient funds to pay attorney fees at closing, even with buyers offering the full listing price,’ Yun added.
This was new to me, so I called over to HUD, and let’s just say they were not exactly thrilled with the Realtors’ statement. HUD says what the Realtors are talking about only affects sales of HUD-owned foreclosures in six states in the Northeast, and dare I say the Northeast is not where the greatest volume of home sales are taking place right now anyway. So this from HUD: ‘Closing on approved purchases of HUD-owned properties has been temporarily delayed in New England. Due to increased demands, funds for closing contracts in this region have been expended and HUD is currently negotiating new contracts. Once they are executed, closings will resume. During this period, all contracts will be extended, when necessary, at no cost to the buyer. Purchasers will be advised as soon as funding becomes available for closings, and a closing date will be established as soon as possible thereafter.’ Apparently everything in Connecticut and Rhode Island will be back on track in two weeks, Main and Vermont will take two to four weeks, and closings in Massachusetts and New Hampshire ‘were expected to resume yesterday.’
So that makes the Realtors’ complaint sound at best a bit petty and at worst inaccurate. This, as they are releasing some really positive numbers that went beyond the street’s expectations. I’m wondering if they had the excuses lined up because they knew folks like me were going to poke holes in their 8.2% monthly jump in contracts signed for existing home purchases. Let’s start with the fact that this big monthly jump comes after a larger drop in April, so the index is still at its second lowest level since last November. Okay, but the index was up over 13 from May 2010. Right, and last April 30th marked the expiration for signing contracts to get the home buyer tax credit, so you had a big May drop-off, and therefore you have nowhere to go from that but up. I might also add that the biggest jump in the index was out West—nearly 13%—and that’s the region dealing with the biggest volume of distressed properties. One analyst immediately cautioned me that many of these contracts are on short sales (when the bank agrees to let the home be sold for less than the value of the mortgage because the seller is either underwater and/or behind on payments), ‘And short sales generally always go pending even though they may not result in sales…much of this is due to fraud.’
I don’t mean to knock a bright spot in housing. Anything to the positive is better than the alternative. I just think we need to keep all these big numbers in perspective, especially since the volumes are so historically low right now, that any move in any of these ‘indices’ may result in bigger percentage numbers than usual.”
Dollar headed higher?
Having shed more than 10% of its value against a basket of currencies in the past year, the fortunes of the US dollar may start turning around soon, according to one analyst. “I have a very strong belief that by the end of this year, the dollar will be much stronger than it is right now,” Kathy Lien, Director of Currency Research at Global Forex Trading said today. “I don’t think come July 1st, we are going to see a vertical move higher immediately for the US dollar,” she said, referring to the Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing, which ends on Thursday. Lien expects the dollar index to rise gradually between 7 and 10% by the end of the year, bolstered primarily by two factors.
Firstly, she believes the US debt ceiling will be raised by August 2, a development that would be dollar positive. The Obama administration and US lawmakers have been under pressure to raise the limit, currently capped at $14.3 billion, or risk the nation going into default. Secondly, Lien expects the US economy to continue strengthening for the rest of the year, which would prompt the Fed to begin a tightening cycle, further boosting the greenback. “The Federal Reserve will start talking about raising interest rates, a further exit strategy…. all those should open the door for dollar recovery,” she said, and adds that the central bank could start hiking rates as soon as the first quarter next year, starting with 25 basis points.
Rental prices rise
Prices on rental properties grew 6.7% in June as more Americans chose low-risk rentals over homeownership, a new report from housing search engine HotPads.com said Thursday. The agency, which compared June prices to last year, attributes the rental-price surge to pent-up demand among first-time renters and larger families who can no longer afford homeownership or who lack faith in the stability of home prices. San Francisco-based HotPads.com reached this conclusion by studying the median listing price of 500,000 rentals located in major metropolitan areas. Price hikes in the studio and five-bedroom rental segment grew the most, rising 14.3% and 12.1%, respectively. HotPads’ study is in line with analyst projections that show pent-up demand for rental housing in the wake of the credit crunch. Americans who rented out properties gained $3.3 billion in total income from that endeavor during the month of May, up from $2.9 billion in April, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. After surveying more than 1,100 property managers in June, credit reporting agency TransUnion concluded that apartment demand is up, especially among Americans who lost homes to foreclosure.
See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin
**************
Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2010.
All Rights Reserved.
http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches
http://www.smartrealestatenews.com
(subscribe to this newsletter)
*************************************************
About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.
* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!
* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com
