Mid-Day Market News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, December 30, 2008
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This should come as no surprise to most of our readers: home prices posted an 18% drop for October of last year, the biggest drop ever since the Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller 20 city housing index was created. The 10-city index fared a bit worse, dropping 19.1%. And there areas really got wacked: Phoenix dropped 33%, Las Vegas slid 32%, and San Francisco declined 41%.
The Conference Board announced that its Consumer Confidence Index dropped 38 in December from a revised 44.7 in November. The low number surprised economists: a survey of 62 number crunches estimated that the reading would come in around 45.
But in good news for consumers, General Motors announced that it would once again offer zero percent financing for the next several weeks. This comes on the heels of the announcement that GMAC was approved as a bank, therefore eligible to tap into $5 billion of the $700 billion of TARP funds.
Now, on to our real estate investing education section…
Discounting Hedonic Pricing Models
Short sale investors interested in obtaining the lowest possible price should learn to turn the tables on rapid rate increases by discounting hedonic pricing models to their benefit. Hedonic pricing essentially works like this; instead of calculating the increase in a price of a home as inflationary, the “upgrades” and other enhanced “quality” measures are calculated independent of the base price of the home. While this is a valid method of taking quality improvements into account especially during periods of economic growth, it does little to account for increased “liabilities” during periods of economic or financial contraction.
Let’s demonstrate by using a basic example; Buyer A and Buyer B both purchased 3 bedroom, 2 bath homes on 1/3 acre lots with city utilities. Each home is 1500 sq. feet living area and is 3 years of age. Home A is a “bare bones” affordable housing model with laminate counter-tops, inexpensive carpet and off the shelf fixtures throughout. Standard bathtub, windows, doors and other items were used. The cost of the home was $100 per square foot or roughly $150,000 plus the price of the lot. Buyer B also purchased a home of the same size but with granite countertops, imported Italian tile, upgraded windows and custom features throughout. Upgraded appliances, a large in-ground pool, whirlpool spa tubs and other upgrades resulted in a cost of $300 per square foot or a selling price of $450,000 plus the price of the lot.
So far so good. Unfortunately, as the economy begins to stagnate items originally deemed highly desirable quickly become undesirable as the cost of maintenance and repairs outpaces the ability of homeowners to sustain these items. This is where short sale investors are likely to reap major benefits. Deep discounts of common upgrades or former enhancements are possible by keeping these rules of thumb in mind:
1. If it requires high maintenance it is a liability and should be deeply discounted. In-ground pools are a prime example. Not only do they increase electric bills when heating but cleaning supplies and maintenance contracts can easily cost $100-$250 per month. Items that require regular out of pocket costs should be deeply discounted as potential liabilities for a property. Aggressive pricing estimates would deduct the cost of repairs, maintenance and even potential removal of the item.
2. If it requires minimal maintenance but adds no additional value it should be discounted by comparing a standard pricing model. For instance, those beautiful granite countertops don’t save money or increase functionality to the home therefore they are of no more “real” value when selling than laminate or less expensive alternatives. Make a point of going through the home and putting together a comprehensive replacement price list based upon standard “off the shelf” alternatives for all items that do not activity save money or represent major buying incentives in the new economy.
We had so many positive comments about our top 5 positive things about the market … so we’re going to post it again for you:
As 2008 draws to a close and short sale investors look to 2009 the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not the economy will continue its downward spiral or experience a recovery. Despite the considerable abundance of doom and gloom reporting in the media, there are a few bright spots that aren’t receiving the full attention deserved. Short sale investors searching for a silver lining in an otherwise cloudy economic environment would do well to focus on these current trends:
1. $40 per gallon oil and $1.65 per average gasoline. How low will it go and how long it will last is subject to debate but one thing is certain; those who rely upon gasoline and oil are experiencing a bit of much needed relief in the form of lower prices.
2. Low Mortgage Rates & Dropping LIBOR Rates. The cost of money is cheap – not just inexpensive but downright cheap. Make no mistake about it, real interest rates are the lowest in decades and make it less expensive than ever to borrow money to build a short sale empire. It is possible to buy more house for less money while simultaneously spending less on taxes and insurance. It’s a win-win-win situation for those with the courage to buy when others are selling.
3. Huge Fiscal Stimulus. Coming soon to a federal budget near you is a huge fiscal stimulus package destined to become one of the largest in history. Bridges, roads, hospitals, schools, utilities and other mega-projects are slated to spur the economic growth needed to jump-start the economy. Whether you believe the stimulus package will work or worsen the long term economy, one thing is certain; those workers will need affordable and convenient housing for long term projects. Short sale investors would do well to make a mental note of future road plans, schools and other large building projects in the target areas of interest. Whether you buy low and sell high or wait for the path of progress to reach you, it is a position of strength rather than weakness.
4. Long Term Lag-Times. The global decline in commodities and other tangible assets will eventually lead to long term shortages with tremendous upside profit potential for short sale investors. Remember, there is a lag time between the supply and demand which will result in high demand and low supply once the economy stabilizes. Everything from basic building materials to mineral rights, timber and even natural gas holdings will be impacted. Savvy short sale buyers would do well to realize the long term potential inherent in their holdings.
5. More Renters. Foreclosures aren’t over…in fact, due to legislative restrictions on the number of “bad loans” and tangible assets a bank may have on the books at any given point in time, the current bail-out simply provided the liquidity required for banks to prepare for the 2nd stage of the growing mortgage meltdown. Most experts agree that what began as a sub-prime mess is expanding into ARM’s, low/no Doc loans and even prime mortgages in response to rising unemployment, falling stocks and bonds plus a plethora of other economic problems hit the average homeowner.
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See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog
P.S.:
Are you ready to get 2009 rolling? Then it is time to come to our LIVE “Recession Proof Real Estate Investing” webinar tonight – at 9 PM ET:
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/638209573
P.S.S.:
Have you seen the hilarious “Short Sale Kid Gets a Holiday Haircut.” Don’t miss this challenge issued by Nathan Jurewicz:
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches
