Corelogic – home prices down
CoreLogic released its February Home Price Index (HPI) report, the most current and comprehensive source of home prices available today. Excluding distressed sales, month-over-month prices increased 0.7% in February from January. The CoreLogic HPI also showed that year-over-year prices declined by 0.8% in February 2012 compared to February 2011. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions. The report also shows national home prices, including distressed sales, declined on a year-over-year basis by 2.0% in February 2012 and by 0.8% compared to January 2012, the seventh consecutive monthly decline.
Highlights as of February 2012:
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: West Virginia (+8.6%), Michigan (+5.8%), Florida (+4.7%), Arizona (+4.5%) and South Dakota (+4.1%).
- Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Delaware (-11.2%), Connecticut (-7.9%), Rhode Island (-7.8%), Illinois (-7.1%) and Georgia (-6.6%).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest appreciation were: South Dakota (+5.9%), West Virginia (+5.6%), Maine (+4.5%), Utah (+3.7%) and Montana (+3.6%).
- Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the greatest depreciation were: Delaware (-8.7%), Connecticut (-4.9%), Nevada (-4.6%), Vermont (-4.0%) and Minnesota (-3.3%).
- Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to February 2012) was -34.4%. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -24.6%.
- The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines including distressed transactions are Nevada (-60.2%), Arizona (-49.8%), Florida (-48.6%), Michigan (-44.0%) and California (-43.7%).
- Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 67 are showing year-over-year declines in February, nine fewer than in January.
Private sector adds 209,000 jobs
The private sector created 209,000 jobs in March, continuing the slow but steady rise in employment that has characterized the employment market for months. Services again led the job creation, according to a report from ADP and Macroeconomic Advisors. The service sector increased 164,000 in March, though the rate of job creation slowed a big from the upwardly revised 183,000 in February. Job creation in goods-producing businesses rose 45,000 for the month, while manufacturing rose 23,000 and construction grew 13,000. The financial sector added 8,000 positions for the month. Small businesses —defined has having fewer than 50 employees — led the way in job creation, adding 100,000 positions. Medium-sized firms added 87,000, while large businesses with 500 or more employees lagged with 22,000 new positions added. Financial markets reacted modestly to the report, with stock market futures edging up a bit from their lows of the morning, while Treasurys cut a bit of their price gains. The ADP release traditionally sets the stage for the government’s nonfarm payrolls report to be released Friday. Economists expect the payrolls number to grow by about 207,000 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 8.3%. ADP’s numbers were a shade below consensus though unlikely to generate any substantial revisions to the nonfarm number. The March numbers could be tricky in that unseasonably warm weather this winter may have played havoc with the usual seasonal adjustments government economists use to gauge employment trends.
MBA – mortgage applications up
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, rose 4.8% in the week ended March 30. The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications climbed 4%, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases jumped 7.2%. “Applications to buy a home picked up last week, and are running more than two% above the level reported at this time last year,” Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics, said in a statement. “Home purchase applications for conventional loans are now about 10% above last year’s level.” The refinance share of total mortgage activity slipped to 71.2% of applications from 71.9% the week before.
Paul Ryan strikes back – “we need a new president”
Following a hyperbolic criticism of his federal budget proposal by President Obama, Republican Congressman Paul Ryan lashed back yesterday. “Disguised as deficit-reduction plans, it is really an attempt to impose a radical vision on our country. It is thinly veiled social Darwinism,” Obama said earlier in the day, calling the Ryan budget “a Trojan horse” that would increase inequality. “You would think that after the results of this experiment in trickle-down economics, after the results were made painfully clear, that the proponents of this theory might show some humility, might moderate their views a bit,” Obama said. “Instead of moderating their views – even slightly – the Republicans running Congress right now have doubled down and have proposed a budget so far to the right, it makes the Contract With America look like the New Deal.”
On “The Kudlow Report,” Ryan defended against the president’s claims. “Virtually none of the claims he makes about our budget are actually true,” the Wisconsin Republican said. “He’s distorting the truth, he’s dividing the country, and he’s becoming more bitter and partisan by the day. Frankly, it’s kind of sad to see.” Ryan took Obama to task for what he characterized as wavering on the Simpson-Bowles plan. “Our tax reform plan goes in the same exact direction that Simpson-Bowles goes, which is: Broaden the base, lower the rates. Get rid of loopholes and tax shelters so we can lower everybody’s tax rates,” Ryan said. The congressman also criticized what he saw as a lack of action in the face of an economic cliff that the United States is facing. “We need somebody in the White House who’ll actually see this problem for what it is and get this debt under our control before it gets out of our control,” he said. “And that’s why I’m just saying we need a new president.”
WSJ – only 3% of eligible home owners apply for foreclosure review
Last April, federal banking regulators cracked down on alleged foreclosure abuses by announcing enforcement actions against 14 major financial companies and promising widespread reforms. A year later, borrowers haven’t received any compensation from banks, officials haven’t agreed on penalties for errors ranging from incorrect credit-bureau reporting to wrongful foreclosure, and millions of invitations to start foreclosure reviews have received no response. The Federal Reserve and another federal banking regulator, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, also haven’t agreed on whether some of those receiving aid in exchange should relinquish their right to sue the banks, people familiar with the discussions said. Regulators say they are working to ensure that the review process is rigorous and effective, while banks have said they don’t expect the process to uncover significant evidence of financial harm to borrowers. But the hiccups point to the pitfalls facing government efforts to address alleged foreclosure abuses. In February, five major lenders agreed to a $25 billion foreclosure-abuse settlement with state attorneys general and federal officials.
So far, just 3% of borrowers have applied for the foreclosure reviews specified in last April’s consent orders. The post office has returned the banks’ own foreclosure-related mailings as undeliverable at almost twice that rate. At least one bank is struggling to get systems in place for handling and testing borrower responses. Some people familiar with the process said the amount being spent on foreclosure reviews could far outweigh the amount provided to consumers in compensation. Three major banks are spending close to $50 million a month each on auditors, attorneys and other costs related to the review process, said one person familiar with the banks’ efforts. One major consultant, Promontory Financial Group, has assigned more than 1,000 people to reviews for three major US banks, according to documents filed with the OCC. The fees Promontory would collect for this work are blacked out in the documents, and the company declined to say how much it is being paid. An OCC spokesman acknowledged that the process will be costly but said it is “a necessary expense to determine whether or not there were financial injuries as a result of errors in the foreclosure process.” A Fed spokeswoman declined to comment.
Workers’ confidence up
As the unemployment rate continues to drop, however slowly, employees are feeling more confident about their prospects. That creates a new dynamic for workers and their employers, says Rusty Rueff, a career and workplace expert at Glassdoor, an online job community. Rueff says that, based on results of Glassdoor’s most recent Employment Confidence survey, there are a number of signals business owners are giving to employees to make them feel that job security is increasing. Glassdoor has been conducting quarterly surveys since the last quarter of 2008, as the recession was hitting its peak. “We’ve found that employee confidence is a strong economic indicator,” said Reuff. “Employee confidence is precursor to consumer confidence.”
The Glassdoor survey, conducted in mid-March and spanning activity in the first quarter of 2012, found that just 13% of employees worked for companies that had initiated furloughs, unpaid leave or mandatory vacations. That is down from 18% in the previous quarter. More telling numbers: The percentage of employees who said their employers communicated bonus reductions or eliminations was down to 10%, from 17 the previous quarter. And 40% said that health or dental benefits, and pay or perks that previously were cut had been restored. That was up from 38% in the fourth quarter of 2011. And 43% of employees said they expect a pay raise in the next 12 months, up from 38% at the end of 2011. That’s the highest number since the survey was begun in 2008. While confidence is up, employees are not entirely convinced the recovery is in full gear. One indication: 26% of employees said that employers had reduced health or dental benefits. That number is up dramatically from 17% last quarter. Nevertheless, Rueff says that the uncertainty caused by Obama’s Health Act is holding employers back.
CMBS delinquencies spike
Delinquencies on loans backing commercial mortgage bonds jumped 31 basis points to 9.68% in March from the previous month, according to Trepp. It was the largest monthly increase since a 51 bps spike in July. The rate climbed above the 9.37% level in February and the 9.42% rate one year ago. Roughly $5 billion in these loans turned delinquent in March. Meanwhile, there was $1 billion in CMBS loan resolutions, dropping below levels seen in recent months. The first data for five-year loans originated in 2007 came in during the first quarter of 2012. Only 48% of the $9 billion originated paid off at or before they came due. Some of those were resolved with a loss. Of those that fell out of the CMBS pools, roughly 20% suffered some sort of loss, Trepp said, though in many cases the loss was less than 2%. The half of that specific vintage are either categorized as nonperforming or placed in foreclosure with a special servicer. The highest delinquency rate jump occurred in multifamily properties, which increased 74 bps to 15.39% in March. Delinquencies on offices (9.41%) climbed 37 bps, and retail delinquencies (8.24%) increased by 24 bps from the previous month.
