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Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin January 30, 2012

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OC Register – investors are the answer

“According to a foreclosure sales report by RealtyTrac, foreclosure-related homes are still being gobbled up — they represent 20% of total transactions in 2011 Q3.  Foreclosures are usually viewed as a supply and price issue. High foreclosures keep home prices down, creating negative equity — and declining home prices keep foreclosures coming. This is a seemingly vicious cycle that feeds into the “shadow supply” problem and looks potentially like a never ending story.  But all vicious cycles eventually come to an end in a capitalist market system. Ironically, it is the enthusiastic response of investors and regular buyers to low-priced foreclosed homes, which could eventually break the foreclosure cycle.  Foreclosure-related home sales were one-fifth of total US home sales in the third quarter vs. 22% in the quarter before and 30% during the third quarter of 2010.

The decline in the market share of foreclosure-related home sales is partially explained by various hurdles to the efficient conclusion of the foreclosures process, but “even with the hurdles to selling foreclosures, foreclosure sales continue to represent a historical high percentage of all sales,” says RealtyTrac. Foreclosures’ shrinking share could also be caused by declining mortgage delinquencies, which have been dropping relatively quickly in California, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.  In California, the share of foreclosure related sales was 44% in the third quarter. California has one of the most efficient foreclosure recycling processes in the nation, so temporary supply constraints are not that big of an issue as, for example, they may be in Florida.  Strong demand may be stabilizing the average sales price of home in foreclosure, too, which was up 1% from the previous quarter and down just 3% for the third quarter in 2010. The reported average discount for foreclosed properties relative to regular homes was 34% — but I wouldn’t read too much into these numbers because they are not quality adjusted.  Still, declining mortgage delinquencies and strong demand for foreclosure product could mean that the end may soon be here for the foreclosure business — and what’s lurking in the shadows.”

Income up, spending down

The Commerce Department said today that spending was the weakest since June and followed a 0.1% gain in November.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, to nudge up 0.1% last month. For all of 2011, spending rose 4.7%, the largest increase since 2007.  When adjusted for inflation, spending dipped 0.1%, breaking three straight months of gains. It increased 0.1% in November.  The government reported on Friday that consumer spending grew at a 2.0% annual pace in the fourth quarter, helping to lift gross domestic product 2.8% — acceleration from the third-quarter’s 1.8% rate.  Part of the spending, which has been concentrated in motor vehicles, has been funded from savings and credit cards as high unemployment constrains wage growth.

Wages rose last month, helping to prop-up incomes. Income advanced 0.5%, the largest gain since a matching increase in March, and followed a 0.1% rise in November. Economists had expected income to rise 0.4%.  Consumer spending is closely watched because it accounts for 70% of economic activity.  Unemployment stands at 8.5% — its lowest level in nearly three years after a sixth straight month of solid hiring.  For the final three months of 2011, Americans spent more on vehicles, and companies restocked their supplies at a robust pace.  Still, overall growth last quarter — and for all of last year — was slowed by the sharpest cuts in annual government spending in four decades. And many people are reluctant to spend more or buy homes, and many employers remain hesitant to hire, even though job growth has strengthened.

LPS – 2010-2011 originations good quality

The December Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services shows mortgage originations continued their decline from 2011’s September peak, down 10.1% from the month before. At the same time, those loans originated over the last two years have proven to be some of the best quality originations on record. Likely a result of tighter lending requirements, 2010-11 vintage originations showed 90-day default rates below those of all other years, going back to 2005. December origination data also shows that recent prepayment activity – a key indicator of mortgage refinances – has remained strong, with 2008-09 originations, high credit score borrowers and government-backed loans having benefited the most from recent, historically low interest rates.

Looking at judicial vs. non-judicial foreclosure states, LPS found that half of all loans in foreclosure in judicial states have not made a payment in more than two years. Foreclosure sale rates in non-judicial states stood at approximately four times that of judicial foreclosure states in December. Still, on average, pipeline ratios (the time it would take to clear through the inventory of loans either seriously delinquent or in foreclosure at the current rate of foreclosure sales) have declined significantly from earlier this year.

The December mortgage performance data also showed that foreclosure starts continued to decline, remaining at multi-year lows as of the end of 2011; down 3.7% for the month, and nearly 40% for the year.  As reported in LPS’ First Look release, other key results from LPS’ latest Mortgage Monitor report include:

Total US loan delinquency rate:  8.15%

​Month-over-month change in delinquency rate:  0.0%

​Total U.S foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate:  ​4.11%

​Month-over-month change in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:  -1.3%

​States with highest percentage of non-current loans:  FL, MS, NV, NJ, IL

​States with the lowest percentage of non-current loans:  MT, WY, SD, AK, ND

Big banks hedge against EU

Five large American banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, have more than $80 billion of exposure to Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece, the most economically stressed nations in the euro currency zone, according to a New York Times analysis of the banks’ financial disclosures.  But these banks have made extensive use of a type of financial insurance, called credit default swaps, to help them offset any losses that might occur if defaults swamped the five troubled nations. Using these swaps, along with other measures, the five banks have cut their theoretical exposure to the troubled countries by $30 billion, to $50 billion. The analysis also shows that Citigroup has the greatest percentage of its exposure potentially protected at 47%, while Bank of America has bought the least protection at 12%.  Big banks have reduced their sovereign debt exposure, but they still have tens of billions of dollars of it.  Credit-default swaps have functioned well for big bankruptcies, but they were also a big source of systemic weakness in 2008, when the American International Group nearly collapsed because it could not make payments on its side of its swaps contracts. Some market participants now doubt they would work properly during periods of great financial instability.  “The likelihood of actually getting paid out from owning a credit default swap would be troubling to me if this were my hedge against a systemic shock — especially in a political environment unfriendly to more Wall Street bailouts,” Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer at Universal Investments, a hedge fund, said through a spokesman.

Olick – foreclosure pipeline swells

“The number of new foreclosures in 2011 dropped nearly 40%, according to year-end numbers just released by Lender Processing Services (LPS); there is, however, little cause for celebration.  The fall is largely due to moratoria and process reviews stemming from the so-called ‘robo-signing’ foreclosure paperwork scandal.  Mortgage delinquency rates were largely unchanged from last year, which means all that distress will be pushed forward to 2012 and beyond.  To give you an idea of just how much the ‘robo’ scandal is toying with the numbers, LPS compared states that require foreclosures to go through the courts versus states that don’t (judicial versus non-judicial) and found the following:

- 50% of loans in foreclosure in judicial states have not made a payment in two years, as opposed to 28% in non-judicial states.

- Foreclosure sale rates in non-judicial states are about four times those in judicial states.

‘Nationally, foreclosure pipelines remain at historic highs, but they are clearing at very different rates depending upon state procedures,’ says Herb Blecher of LPS Applied Analytics.  With the nation essentially split between judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states, it’s safe to say the foreclosure crisis will linger longer than anyone expected, especially with negotiations for a settlement between big banks and state attorneys general hitting yet another roadblock.  California Attorney General Kamala Harris rejected the latest proposal this week, calling it inadequate.  ‘Our state has been clear about what any multistate settlement must contain: transparency, relief going to the most distressed homeowners, and meaningful enforcement that ensures accountability. At this point, this deal does not suffice for California,’ she wrote in a statement.  Bank sources say that without California the value of the settlement would drop by billions and banks would still have major liability for foreclosure fraud. About one fifth of the nation’s foreclosures are in California.”

Replacements to help drive economy

Four years after the downturn began, the replacement cycle shows signs of kicking into a higher gear in the United States even among small businesses, and it could give an unexpected boost to growth and employment this year.  In the United States, large corporations have already dug into huge cash piles to upgrade plant and equipment, adding incrementally to an economy that grew by 2.8% in the fourth quarter.  Now small businesses, which drive about half of US economic growth and a big chunk of job creation, are increasing their spending on equipment, too, an important precursor to stronger hiring.  For the early signs of this small business revival, Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, points to two factors: access to credit has improved markedly as shown by a surge in banks’ commercial and industrial lending, and an index of capital expenditure intentions, as measured by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), is climbing. NFIB policy analyst Holly Wade said anecdotally she hears of more businesspeople talking of increasing their budgets.  “They have stretched out their machinery and equipment and would have normally invested in replacement, but they were waiting as long as possible. Now they are starting to see better sales and earnings, and they are more comfortable investing some of those dollars in capex,” she said.  “In the next three to six months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the same rate of growth in capital outlays we have seen recently.”

FHA – originations down, delinquencies up

The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two years, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) said.  More than 711,000 FHA-insured loans were seriously delinquent, up 18.9% from one year earlier, according to the HUD report. It’s also a 3.2% increase from the month before. The delinquency rate has been steadily increasing since passing 8.2% last summer.  Meanwhile, originations are down. In December, the FHA insured 93,700 mortgages, a nearly 30% decline from the 133,000 insured in December 2010.  In its fiscal year 2011, the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund slipped to a 0.24% capital ratio from 0.5% the year prior. By law, the fund must remain above 2%.  FHA officials attempted to temper fears that the fund would need a bailout. An independent study done showed home prices would have to deteriorate significantly before an injection of tax dollars would be needed.

“It would take very significant declines in home prices in 2012 to create a situation where FHA would need additional support,” said FHA Acting Commissioner Carole Galante when the projections came out.  American Enterprise Institute Fellow Edward Pinto isn’t convinced. His study claimed that FHA is actually undercapitalized by as much as $53 billion using more traditional accounting rules.  The FHA put new guidelines in place this week that would tighten restrictions on lenders seeking approval to write FHA mortgages. Also, the changes would force more firms to buyback defaulted home loans and reduce seller concessions, which Pinto said would have the most impact, according to Pinto.  “We need to get back to where the mortgages themselves stand on their own regardless of what happens with house price inflation or deflation,” Pinto said.

Bakersfield.com – no kudos for the POTUS

President Obama’s announcement in last week’s State of the Union address that he has created a new unit to probe mortgage abuse earns no cheers from us. Instead, we are reminded how shamefully little has been done to address the housing crisis that continues to plague so many Americans.  The Making Home Affordable mortgage relief program has been an utter flop. An attempt by the Department of Justice to broker a multistate settlement with major banks over foreclosure abuses that would fund relief for struggling homeowners has gone nowhere. There have been no meaningful prosecutions, no significant relief for homeowners and few new fraud protections.  Now, what little break has been granted to troubled homeowners — in the form of tax relief on canceled mortgage debt — is due to expire at year’s end and too few seem aware of the looming deadline.

Normally, debt that is forgiven or canceled by a lender in a foreclosure or short sale must be included as income on tax returns and is taxable. However, the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 excluded the reporting of up to $1 million in canceled debt on a primary residence for tax purposes. But not for long.  Local real estate agents report no frenzy of calls or uptick in clients wanting to carry out short sales. Scott Tobias, president of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors, told The Californian last week that “I think, basically, homeowners don’t know about” the tax relief expiring on Dec. 31, 2012.  With nearly half of all Bakersfield mortgages underwater, it’s essential for people to know of the upcoming tax break expiration, especially considering that it can take months to close a short sale.  The housing market is nowhere near recovery; Congress ought to extend the tax relief. But no one should rely on Congress to act. It’s imperative for underwater homeowners to understand their options and be informed about the looming tax deadline.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin January 2, 2012

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BOA short sale program to expand?

Bank of America’s (BOA) cash-back incentive, which tempted delinquent borrowers to do a short sale over a lengthy foreclosure, ended Dec. 12 with mixed reviews. The Florida-only program offered between $5,000 and $20,000 in relocation expenses to qualified homeowners who agreed to vacate their homes through a short sale in lieu of the average two-year foreclosure process.  But as of early December, only about 3,000 homeowners of 20,000 solicited by the bank had expressed interest in the plan, which one real estate consultant said was unthinkable before the robo-signing scandal heightened the foreclosure chaos.  “A year ago, banks weren’t making offers like this. Now, it’s a complete reversal in that they are proactively soliciting short sales,” said Jack McCabe, chief executive of McCabe Research & Consulting in Deerfield Beach. “They are offering unbelievable deals.”

Realtors say banks, including Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase, began offering cash incentives about six months ago to homeowners who agree to do short sales. With foreclosures taking an average of 749 days in Florida, according to a November RealtyTrac report, it’s cheaper to pay off an owner than take them to court, Realtors say.  BOA spokeswoman Jumana Bauwens said she couldn’t comment on concerns unless they dealt with a specific case, but that the company was “pleased” with the homeowner response.  Bauwens said Florida was chosen to test the program because of its high number of foreclosures. If it’s ultimately deemed successful, it could be expanded to other states.  To qualify, homeowners had to submit their short sales for approval by Dec. 12 – an extended deadline from an original Nov. 30 date. The homes could not have offers on them already, and the closing needed to occur before Aug. 31.

Ford hits 2 million mark in 2011

The Ford brand passed the 2-million mark, said Erich Merkle, Ford US sales analyst.  Ford’s small cars sales posted an increase of more than 20% this year, while its utility vehicles hit a 30-percent gain, the company said.  Overall, including its Lincoln luxury brand and now-defunct Mercury brand, Ford company sales were up about 11% through November, and the Ford brand’s sales were up about 18%.  As gasoline prices rose in 2011, customers continued to move toward smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles. In recent years, Ford has emphasized fuel efficiency, including adding its “EcoBoost” engines that include turbocharging and fewer cylinders, particularly on utility vehicles and pickup trucks.  US auto sales in December are expected to top 13 million on an annual rate, J.D. Power and Associates and LMC Automotive said.  Once again, as it has each year for more than three decades, the Ford F-Series pickup trucks are the best-selling vehicle in the US market. Through November, Ford sold 516,639 F-Series pickup trucks, according to Autodata.

Olick – housing’s new hope

“I’m not sure if it’s that usual New Year’s Eve optimism evoked by the generic philosophy that the grass is always greener on the other side of the calendar year, or perhaps the emotional need to dig ourselves out of what has surely been one of the more lugubrious periods in the US economy, but there is some hope in housing.  A few positive readings in home sales and housing starts recently, topped off by today’s 7.4% monthly jump in contracts to buy existing homes, are fueling what I dare say is a spark, albeit not a fire. They are also managing to trump what was a particularly opposing reading in home prices from the number crunchers at S&P/Case-Shiller this week.  Don’t worry, I’m not going to dump a bunch of coal on the numbers and claim they’re all spurious in some way; I’m all prepared to be munificent, while chary (did I mention my new year’s resolution is to improve my family’s vocabulary, as well as banish ‘like’ from my kids’ lexicon.) I will note that even the Realtors, while touting affordability and pent-up demand, note that many of these new signed contracts are the result of delayed transactions.  ‘Contract failures have been running unusually high,’ notes National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. ‘Some of the increase in pending home sales appears to be from buyers recommitting after an initial contract ran into problems, often with the mortgage,’ he said.

Then there is a big story in the Wall Street Journal [on Friday] of hedge funds putting their money back in housing, suggesting that while the numbers aren’t all there for a big win, these funds are usually ahead of big market shifts, so the housing surge must be on its way. I’ve spoken to some of these hedge fund types as well, and they seem to be playing on the surging rental market for now, getting the bargains but not expecting any big ‘flipping’ returns any time soon.  ‘Bottom line, whether due to even lower prices, historically low mortgage rates, falling inventory and a better tone to the labor market or a combination of all, the housing market is showing signs of stabilizing,’ says Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak. ‘I say stabilize instead of bottom, as its too early to make that claim just yet with still a huge amount of foreclosures that hasn’t worked its way through the judicial system and prices that haven’t likely stopped going down as a result.’  Some are predicting that foreclosures will push home prices down another five to ten% before hitting a true bottom.

In addition, those rock-bottom mortgage rates that everyone is touting this week may be heading up, as the conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac today directed the two mortgage behemoths to inform servicers that guarantee fees would rise ten basis points next week. That, if you recall, is to pay for the temporary extension of the payroll tax cut. Yep, that money heads to the US Treasury, not to the troubled balance sheets of Fannie and Freddie. This accused nostrum will likely raise rates a tad, but rates are still close to historical lows. And we should remember that.  It’s all relative. Are things getting a bit better? Probably. I heard (or read…can’t remember) someone today say that housing has gone from a negative to a nothing for the US economy. So when we tout and rave about today’s pending home sales numbers, we mustn’t forget where we’ve been:  ‘It’s not going to keep 2011 from being the worst on record for new home sales, for single family permits and single family housing starts. Next year is going to be better, but that’s not saying much because this has been the worst year, probably since 1945,’ said IHS Global Insight’s Patrick Newport. In other words, housing ain’t exactly fecund, but it’s at least inching off life support.”

Employers offer weird benefits

Pet insurance, at-your-desk meditation services, jewelry discounts and funeral planning — from the quirky to the somber, workplaces are providing a range of unique benefits in 2012.  The options come as many firms try to placate employees frustrated by pay cuts, heavy workloads, high health insurance costs and reduced 401(k) matches.  “Companies are trying to have it feel like it’s not one big take-away,” said John Bremen, a managing director at employer consultancy Towers Watson. “They are trying to find ways to appeal to the workforce.”  Many voluntary benefits — such as reduced-price computers and pet insurance due to group-buying discounts — won’t gouge a corporate budget.  “On the employer side, there’s a recognition that they can’t always add to the benefits program in a way they have in the past,” said Ronald Leopold, national medical director at MetLife. “But they want to offer employees different things and a broader set of (choices).”

Among the many options offered: free tickets to theme parks, cellphone plan discounts and at-work massages.  Benefits at drug manufacturer Allergan include adoption assistance and auto insurance discounts. It also has a free concierge service for workers to acquire theater tickets, drop off laundry and get restaurant reservations.  Firms such as S.C. Johnson, TD Bank and Travelocity provide discounted health coverage for workers’ pets through Petplan Pet Insurance. Petplan “has seen tremendous growth in this area of voluntary benefits,” co-CEO Chris Ashton said. “In this struggling economy, employers are increasingly looking for low-cost options to keep their employees happy.”

WSJ – 2011 ends with near record mortgage rate lows

Average fixed mortgage rates in the US over the past week finished the year near all-time lows, with the 30-year home loan at 3.95%.  According Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of mortgage rates, the rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been at or below 4% for the past nine consecutive weeks and only twice in 2011 did it average above 5%.  The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.95% for the week ended Thursday, up from 3.91% the previous week and below 4.86% a year ago. Rates on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.24%, up from 3.21% last week and below 4.20% a year earlier.  Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARM, averaged 2.88%, up from 2.85% yet below 3.77% of a year ago. One-year Treasury-indexed ARM rates averaged 2.78%, up from 2.77% in the prior week and below 3.26% last year.  To obtain the rates, 30-year and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages required payments of 0.7 percentage point and 0.8 percentage point, respectively. Five-year and one-year adjustable rate mortgages required an average payment of 0.6 percentage point. A point is 1% of the mortgage amount, charged as prepaid interest.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 27, 2011

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

************************************************************

WSJ – tracking down alleged victims

The Justice Department faces the daunting task of tracking down more than 210,000 alleged victims and determining how to compensate them, following last week’s $335 million fair-lending settlement with Bank of America Corp.’s Countrywide unit.  Minority borrowers who suffered the greatest harm from Countrywide’s allegedly discriminatory mortgage-lending practices could be the most difficult to locate, observers say, because they are the victims most likely to have lost their homes to foreclosure and subsequently moved several times.  The landmark case is also the first by the Justice Department that accuses a lender of steering borrowers to more costly mortgages, creating novel and possibly difficult questions on setting monetary payments for some victims. For example, how should the government compensate a family that both lost its home and was unfairly steered into a more costly subprime loan?

The agreement, announced last Wednesday, was the largest residential fair-lending settlement in history. It resolved allegations that Countrywide and its subsidiaries engaged in a widespread pattern of discrimination against black and Hispanic borrowers from 2004 to 2008.  Home borrowers allegedly were charged higher fees and costs. Others allegedly were steered into costly subprime loans, even though they could have qualified for a prime mortgage, the type of loan offered to borrowers with the best credit histories.  Bank of America said it reached the settlement “to resolve issues about Countrywide’s alleged historic practices” before it acquired the company in 2008. The bank also said it discontinued Countrywide products and practices that “were not in keeping” with its commitment to fair and equal treatment of customers.

As the Justice Department’s settlement administrator begins to track down victims, the recent experience of the Federal Trade Commission, which inked its own settlement with Countrywide last year, offers a possible road map. Bank of America paid the FTC $108 million to settle charges that Countrywide took advantage of more than 450,000 distressed homeowners by inflating the cost of services relating to their defaults.  The FTC began mailing refund checks this summer, but 18 months after the agreement, the agency still holds about 25% of the money because it can’t find some people. Officials there are also concerned that at least some victims haven’t cashed the checks out of worries the refunds are part of a scam. The agency is preparing to conduct another round of searches for remaining victims.  The Justice Department is confident its settlement administrator “will be successful in locating the vast majority of the victims and is committed to ensuring that best efforts are made to do so,” spokeswoman Xochitl Hinojosa said.

SEARS  to close 120 stores

Sears Holdings said today that between 100 and 120 Sears and Kmart stores will be closed after terrible holiday sales during what is the most crucial time of the year for retailers.  Sears  has yet to determine which stores will be closed, but there has been a clear shift in where the retailer will devote its resources.  The company is moving away from its practice of propping up “marginally performing” stores in hopes of improving their performance. Sears said it will now concentrate on cash-generating stores.  “Given our performance and the difficult economic environment, especially for big-ticket items, we intend to implement a series of actions to reduce ongoing expenses, adjust our asset base, and accelerate the transformation of our business model,” said CEO Louis D’Ambrosio. “These actions will better enable us to focus our investments on serving our customers.”  Sears would not discuss how many, if any, jobs would be cut.  Sears Holdings has more than 4,000 stores in the US and Canada.

Housing sector lifted by rent demand

The percentage of Americans who own their home dropped from a peak of 69.2% in late 2004 to a 13-year low of 65.9% in the second quarter.  It edged up to 66.3% in the third quarter of this year. On the flip side, the percentage of rental properties that are empty fell to 9.8% in the third quarter from 10.3% a year earlier.  In a recent report, Oliver Chang, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, dubbed 2012 “The Year of the Landlord.” “Rents are rising, vacancies are falling, household formations are growing and rental supply is limited,” the Morgan Stanley report stated.  “We believe the demand for rental properties will continue to grow.”  Groundbreaking for new housing jumped 9.3% in November to the highest level in 19 months, fueling optimism that the battered housing market was regaining its footing.  The gains, however, were almost solely in multifamily housing. Groundbreaking for structures with five or more units shot up more than 30% from October to now stand at nearly double the year-ago level.  Prices reflect the shift in demand. Rental costs are up 2.4% over the last year, compared with an increase of just 0.6% in 2010.  Steve Blitz, senior economist at ITG Investment Research, says the lure of higher returns is spurring the development of apartment buildings. He argued the next “boom” in residential construction has already started.  “The reason rents were rising is that through the past 15 years there has been an under-building of rental properties because typical renters were increasingly able to garner cheap financing to buy a house,” he wrote in a research note.

Double dip for big pharma

Pharmaceutical giants’ profits could take a “double-dip” hit next year from patent expirations on blockbuster drugs and President Barack Obama’s healthcare reforms, according to a report from CreditSights, a credit market research firm.  Patent expiries are set to cost pharmaceutical firms $54 billion in sales between 2011 and 2012, with the cost reaching over $255 billion by 2016, according to EvaluatePharma, a research firm.  “We could see a double-dip effect in 2012, due to lower sales and earnings from loss of exclusivity, and healthcare reform costs that have not yet been reduced,” said Diya Sawhny senior pharmaceuticals analyst at CreditSights.  “A significant slate of prescription products lose patent protection in 2011 and 2012, and their sales will decline,” she added.

Obama’s healthcare reforms include increases to the sales taxes pharmaceutical firms pay for their drugs used in government health programs. Those taxes are based on prior year sales, so firms with blockbusters going off-patent in 2012 may face both higher taxes and a drop-off in sales.  Obama’s Affordable Care Act was enacted in March 2010 with the intention of improving healthcare for the uninsured. Changes include expanding the number of people who are eligible for Medicaid, the state-run insurance program aimed at low-income individuals, with 16 million extra enrollees expected by 2019.  A pre-existing tax on prescription drugs sold to Medicaid recipients was increased from 15.1% to 23.1%, and was expanded to include drugs given in care organizations.  Between 2011 and 2018, pharmaceutical firms must pay an additional federal tax based on their market share of sales to government health programs. The cost of the tax to the pharmaceutical sector is fixed by law, and rises from $2.5 billion in 2011 to $3 billion from 2012 until 2016.

Home prices fall in most major cities

Home prices in October declined in 19 American cities, as the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price index showed drops in both the 10-city and 20-city composites.  According to the latest S&P report, home prices declined 1.1% and 1.2% for the 10- and 20-city composite indexes.  “There was weakness in the monthly statistics, as 19 of the cities posted price declines in October over September,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. “Eleven of the cities and both composites fell by 1.0% or more during the month. And even though some of the annual rates are improving, 18 cities and both composites are still negative. Nationally, home prices are still below where they were a year ago. The 10-city composite is down 3.0% and the 20-City is down 3.4% compared to October 2010.” S&P said fourteen of 20 metropolitan statistical areas and both the 10 and 20-city composite indexes had improved annual returns up from September.

Miami experienced no change in annual returns in terms of pricing during the month of October, while Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Minneapolis saw their annual rates worsen. Atlanta experienced the lowest annual pricing return, with prices down 11.7%.  “Atlanta and the Midwest are regions that really stand out in terms of recent relative weakness. Atlanta was down 5% over the month, after having fallen by 5.9% in September,” the report said.  “It also has the weakest annual return, down 11.7%. Chicago, Cleveland Detroit and Minneapolis all posted monthly declines of 1.0% or more in October. These markets were some of the strongest during the spring/summer buying season. However, Detroit is the healthiest when viewed on an annual basis. It is up 2.5% versus October 2010.”  The only metropolitan statistical area to record a positive monthly change was Phoenix, which saw home prices edge up 0.3% from September to October.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 23, 2011

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Governors signs new foreclosure laws

A law signed into effect this week will regulate the foreclosure industry and require foreclosure consultants to be licensed by the state Department of Banking and Insurance. Governor Chris Christie signed the Foreclosure Rescue Fraud Prevention Act on Tuesday.  In the scams, “counselors” would, for high upfront fees, claim to raise a homeowner’s credit rating or change the terms of their existing mortgage, or sign over a deed to someone who promises to rent back the residence and in the future sell it back to the original owner. The companies would then take out additional mortgages on the properties without the homeowners’ knowledge, and in some cases falsify information on the loan application.

The homeowners lose their fees, any equity they have built in the house and frequently ownership of the house itself.  Under the law, the foreclosure consultants are prohibited from collecting any fees — and are limited from charging excessive rates — before completing the terms of the written contract and securing relief for the homeowner. The consultant companies must also post a bond with the state before conducting business, and are subject to a $10,000 fine for the first offense and $20,000 for each subsequent offense.  The bill initially passed both the state Senate and Assembly in June. But Governor Chris Christie conditionally vetoed it over concerns a stipulation that would require distressed properties to be sold for 82% of their fair market value because it could inadvertently affect nearly all distressed home sales. Now, the law states that only those sales involving participation with foreclosure consultants qualify.

Governor Rick Snyder of Michigan also signed a series of bills that clarify and improve the pre-foreclosure and foreclosure process and will help keep Michigan residents in their homes. It is a bipartisan legislative package that passed both chambers unanimously.  “This legislation helps protect families and ensures the stability of Michigan communities,” said Snyder. “When foreclosures are prevented, homes are not vacated, families are not displaced and townships, cities and counties do not lose the tax base provided by home ownership.” In September 2011, there was one foreclosure filing for every 149 homes in Michigan. Michigan also had the seventh highest foreclosure rates and foreclosure filing totals in the US  The related bills signed Thursday include House Bill 4542, 4543, and 4544, which are now Public Acts 301, 302 and 303.  Lenders are now required to provide written notice that includes a list of housing counselors when foreclosure proceedings begin so homeowners can seek immediate advice. Also, additional time has been added so homeowners can potentially arrange for loan modifications in order to prevent foreclosure.  The legislation also removes the mandate to publish pre-foreclosure notices in newspapers to help prevent homeowners from being solicited by foreclosure rescue and mortgage modification scams.

Obama’s hand forced on Keystone pipeline

President Obama will be required to make a decision on the Keystone pipeline project now that Congress appears to have worked out a deal to extend the payroll-tax cut.  The tax cut bill includes language that would require Obama to make a decision on the pipeline, now stalled in the approval process, in 60 days.  The Canada-to-Texas oil sands pipeline, which would run down the spine of the country, is strongly supported by Republicans and the oil industry but loathed by many Democrats.  Keystone XL pipeline would move oil sands crude from the western Canadian province of Alberta 1,661 miles2,673 km, to Port Arthur, Texas. In between, it would cross Saskatchewan, Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Texas.  The $7 billion project, which involves linking up with an existing network, would feed 700,000 barrels a day of oil to various destinations, but chiefly to refineries in the US Gulf Coast. The line could also help drain growing oil supplies from the booming Bakken shale oil field in North Dakota.  Keystone XL received Canadian approval in March 2010, but the US State Department, which had been widely expected to approve the project by year-end, said in November it needs to study new routes. That effectively delayed its decision past the 2012 US presidential election.  Obama was accused of punting after facing grassroots opposition to the project from an important segment of his base, the environmental lobby.

Republicans in the House of Representatives, incensed that the White House was turning its back on a job-creating project, introduced language in the payroll tax cut extension bill to force Obama to make a decision on the pipeline. The Democratic-led Senate agreed, including language in its bill.  The project would improve US energy security. These include the Canadian government, the oil industry, some US Republican lawmakers and politicians of all stripes from energy-producing states, as well as unions such as the Teamsters.  TransCanada has said the project, which will result in the most advanced pipeline ever built, will create 20,000 jobs in the United States at a time of high unemployment.  Getting more oil from Canada, already the largest US crude supplier, would reduce reliance on the Middle East and could make up for expected future shortfalls from Mexico and Venezuela.

Foreclosures up 21%

Mortgage delinquencies stabilized in the third quarter, though new foreclosures jumped 21.1% from last quarter according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.  The OCC said mortgage servicers “lifted voluntarily moratoria implemented in late 2010,” when the robo-signing controversy initially came to light. Newly initiated foreclosures, however, declined 11.8% from third quarter 2010.  Foreclosures in process made up about 4.1%, or 1.3 million loans, of the overall mortgage portfolio measured by the OCC. That’s up 0.5% from the second quarter and 7.6% from a year earlier.  First-lien mortgages current and performing changed little in the third quarter, down 0.1 percentage points to 88% of all loans in the OCC portfolio. Those loans made up about 87.5% of the portfolio a year ago.  Modifications declined 8.5% from the second quarter to about 138,000. That includes a 23% drop in mods through the Home Affordable Modification Program.  Third-quarter modifications reduced monthly principal and interest payments by 24.4%, or $382. HAMP mods cut payments by 35.1%, or $567.  The OCC report includes about 62%, or 32.4 million, of all first-lien mortgages in the US worth $5.6 trillion in outstanding balances.

Spending and incomes weak

Consumer spending rose just 0.1% in November, matching the modest October increase, the Commerce Department reported today. Incomes also rose 0.1%. That was the weakest showing since a 0.1% decline in August.  Both the spending and income gains fell below expectations. Economists have said that solid increases in spending could boost economic growth in the final three months of what has been a disappointing year.  Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, called the consumer spending figure disappointing. He said it would probably mean lower economic growth than had been expected.  Rather than grow at an annual rate of up to 3% in the October-December quarter, the economy will likely expand at a rate of about 2.5% this quarter, Ashworth says. That would still be an improvement from the 1.8% growth in the July-September quarter.  The weakness in incomes reflected a decline in wages and salaries, the biggest component of incomes, in November.  The sluggish gain in spending was held back by a 0.3% fall in spending on non-durable goods such as food, clothing and gasoline. Spending on durable goods jumped 0.8%. It reflected the solid auto sales during the month.  Spending on services, which includes such items as medical treatments and rent, rose a modest 0.1%.  After-tax incomes showed no growth in November.

The savings rate dipped to 3.5% of after-tax incomes, down from 3.6% in October. Both months marked the lowest savings rate since late 2007. They show that consumers are having to tap their savings to finance their spending because of the weak income growth.  The small rise in overall consumer spending was puzzling given that other reports have shown solid holiday shopping this season. Those reports had caused many economists to revise up their growth forecasts for the current quarter.  Analysts at JPMorgan think the economy is growing at an annual rate of 3.5% in the current October-December quarter. That would be up from 1.8% growth in the July-September quarter and would be the best quarterly gain since the spring of 2010.  Economists still expect that growth to be driven by an improvement in consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic activity. Spending rose at a 1.7% rate in the third quarter, more than double the second-quarter gain. JPMorgan analysts expect consumer spending to grow at a 3% pace in the current quarter.  Even with the spurt of activity at the end of the year, economists think growth for all of 2011 will be a lackluster 1.7%.

Home prices dip in October

Home prices dropped 0.2% in October from the previous month, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said yesterday.  The agency’s seasonally adjusted house price index decreased 2.8% from a year ago. The September measure was adjusted lower to a 0.4% increase from an initial 0.9% reading.  The home price index, calculated using data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages, rose 0.2% in the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.  October prices were 19.2% lower than the April 2007 peak for the index and are at levels comparable to February 2004.  Only two regions, as measured by the FHFA, saw yearly increases, albeit minimal. Prices rose 0.7% collectively in Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas, and inched higher by 0.1% in Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee.  Values dipped the most from October 2010 at 5.5% in the Pacific region, made up of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington.  The FHFA is the regulator and conservator for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Banks ready for Euro-crisis?

Banks in the United States are expected to survive any type of financial crisis brought on by the euro in 2012, Capital Economics said yesterday.  But the Fed is prepared to step in and prevent any meltdown akin to Lehman Brothers, if Europe’s troubles began washing up stateside, according to analysts at the Toronto-based firm.  The central bank “has a number of liquidity facilities that were established during the financial crisis that it can restart at a moment’s notice if banks need short-term cash,” analysts Paul Ashworth and Paul Dales wrote in a Capital Economics report.  “Indeed, through the currency swaps with other central banks re-established at the end of November, the Fed is already helping to provide dollars to European banks,” they said.  The good news is banks have increased overall lending since March, Capital Economics said. Even foreign banks are getting into the act, boosting lending in America at a faster rate than domestic banks. One indication of trouble would be a pull bank in lending.  “Any sign that they are turning south again would be troubling,” the research firm wrote.

Still, Capital Economics does not expect banks to suffer through any euro crisis. The analysts expect US GDP growth to slow to 1.5% next year, not on euro-zone concerns, but on shaky US consumer confidence.  “The modest slowdown in economic growth that we expect next year has more to do with less support from fiscal policy and a belief that consumption won’t continue to grow at a faster rate than incomes,” Ashworth and Dales wrote.  The analysts said US banks do not hold a large share of assets in the eurozone and possess an even smaller share in European countries that are in deep trouble. Still, the analysts are watching US bank stocks and earnings to ensure their capital is not shaken by shocks in the global financial system.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com