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Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin January 16, 2012

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Foreclosures to take longer

Reviews of hundreds of thousands of foreclosure cases ordered by regulators last year will take months longer to complete than first expected, according to documents filed with federal banking regulators.  The delays could postpone compensation for some homeowners harmed by improper foreclosure actions.  The reviews cover foreclosure actions in 2009 and 2010 by the nation’s 14 largest mortgage servicers, which handle payments for about 65% of US mortgages. They are required by enforcement orders announced by federal regulators in April.  Under the deadlines set in April, the reviews — which are being done by independent consultants hired by servicers — should have been completed this month.  But reviews of Bank of America’s (BOA) foreclosure cases could take until November, a letter that BOA’s consultant filed with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) indicates. BOA is the nation’s largest mortgage servicer, and the Promontory Financial Group is its consultant.  JPMorgan Chase’s consultant, Deloitte & Touche, indicated it may need about the same amount of time, according to its letter.

Review time frames have lengthened for other servicers, too, because the detail, scope and complexity of the reviews weren’t fully known in April, says OCC spokesman Bryan Hubbard.  Some companies may finish before others. Some may beat the timelines in their letters. Some deadlines may get longer, Hubbard says.  The OCC says servicers should not wait until all reviews are done to compensate homeowners.  While 4 million cases are eligible for reviews, consultants will sample only some for errors such as unlawful foreclosures and excessive fees.  Borrowers who faced a foreclosure action on their primary home by one of the 14 servicers in 2009 or 2010 are eligible for reviews. Anyone eligible who asks for a review by the April 30 deadline will get one, the OCC says.

Consumer sentiment up

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary January reading on its overall index of consumer sentiment rose to 74.0 from 69.9 in December for the fifth month of gains and the highest level since May 2011.  The report topped expectations of 71.5 and was in contrast to December’s weaker-than-expected retail sales reported on Thursday.  Thirty-four% of consumers polled in the consumer confidence survey said they had heard of recent job gains, a record high in the survey’s history and well above December’s 21%.  “The data suggest a stronger consumer spending outlook, rising to about a 2.1% gain in 2012,” survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.  But consumers still lacked confidence in government economic policies with the majority rating policies unfavorably for the sixth month in a row.  Americans also remained dour on their personal finances with just 24% expecting their finances to improve in January, slightly below 25% last month.  The survey’s barometer of current economic conditions rose to the highest since February at 82.6 from 79.6, while its gauge of consumer expectations gained to 68.4 from 63.6.

2013 for housing recovery?

A poll of 23 economists and analysts found a consensus for no change in the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index in 2012, compared with a median 0.3% decline that was forecast in the last poll in November.  Many say that a recovery in the housing market is a key requirement for any vigorous rebound in the world’s largest economy. The spectacular collapse in US housing, which sent average prices plummeting by a third, was the trigger for the 2008-09 financial crisis and subsequent recession.  The meager 1.5% gain expected in 2013 will offer little comfort to the millions of Americans trapped in negative equity — owing more to their mortgage lender, and in some cases much more, than their houses are worth.  “I think we are seeing stabilization, but unfortunately it’s stability at the bottom,” said Lindsey Piegza, economist at FTN Financial, describing the grinding halt to several years of relentless price declines.  The average price of a US home is currently around where it was nine years ago, and the most recent data, from October, showed price declines still accelerating.

The market is still under pressure from an excess of homes up for sale. Fifteen of 20 respondents said monthly foreclosures should subside this year, while five didn’t see any let-up until 2013.  Among 20 respondents, 15 said they expect foreclosures to ease some time this year, while five said it would not happen until 2013.  Gains in home sales and new home construction in November, and recent improvement in homebuilder sentiment, added only a touch of optimism at the end of last year.  Still, while the gain expected over the next two years is tiny compared with the more than 30% plunge from the peak in 2006, it is still a more cheery outlook than in some other parts of the world.  A recent Reuters poll predicted British home prices, which have not dropped anywhere near as far as they have in the US, will slip 1.7% this year. In China, they are expected to fall 10 to 20%.

Excess regulations hamper economy

Regulatory policies are badly undermining the economic objectives of governments around the globe by hampering bank activity, JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon said in a conference call discussing fourth-quarter earnings Friday morning.  “Regulatory policy is completely contradictory to government objectives,” Dimon said, citing restrictions on trading and new capital regulations as regulatory sources of slower economic growth.  Dimon said that although regulators have provided additional clarity on new capital rules, the clarifications are have demonstrated that the capital rules are “bad.”  He noted that higher capital requirements have made risk weighting even more important for banks. Under international capital standards, different kinds of bank assets receive different capital treatment, a practice known as risk weighting.

Dimon also criticized the so-called Volcker rule banning proprietary trading. He warned that if the rule is not carefully crafted, it could limit not just prop trading but market making.  “The United States has the widest and deepest and most transparent capital markets in the world,” Dimon said. “And the most liquid.   If you lose liquidity because you lose market making, you cost investors money.”  He said that pension funds, retirees, and other large investors could lose out if restrictions on trading go too far.  “We have to be very careful that we don’t destroy that [market making] as we try to limit — put a fair limit — on proprietary trading,” Dimon said.

Fitch downgrades Merrill mortgage securities

Fitch Ratings downgraded four classes of Merrill Lynch Mortgage Trust securities certificates backed by commercial real estate because the underlying loans are expecting losses.  At the same time, 17 classes of loans in the same series of securities were affirmed by the ratings giant.  Fitch specifically classified 76 loans as mortgages of concern. About 25 of those 76 are specially serviced loans.  The entire loan pool subjected to the downgrade had an aggregate principal balance of $2.2 billion at the end of December, compared to $2.5 billion at issuance.  Of those loans in special servicing, 16 are real-estate owned, three are in foreclosure, another three are delinquent and 1% are current.  One of the largest contributors to the expected losses in the pool is a three-story office building in Scottsdale, Ariz. The loan was moved into special servicing in October of 2009 when a large tenant that fully occupied one of the buildings terminated its lease and vacated the premises. As of mid-last year, the building’s occupancy rate stood at 62%.  A hotel located in Tampa, Fla., also is contributing to uncertainty over the pool of loans with a special servicer saying it would like to pursue a foreclosure.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************
Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin January 10, 2012

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Senate committee approves statewide guidelines for foreclosures

The Banking and Finance Committee voted 5-2 in favor of sending the substitute to House Bill 110 to a full vote, which could happen as soon as this week.  According to the proposal, the bill would authorize cities and counties to create foreclosure registries that would have statewide requirements. The fee to register a property would not exceed $175, and the penalties for failing to register properties would be limited to $500 a month and $2,000 total.  The proposal does not preempt city or county ordinances requiring registration of foreclosed properties for repeated violations that remain uncorrected for at least 60 days, but would it would stop any other local foreclosure registries currently in existence.  Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Jack Murphy said such a law is needed to prevent cities and counties from treating fees associated with foreclosures and vacant properties as a cash cow.  “It can’t become a revenue source,” Murphy said. “That’s a tax. We need something standardized that everybody has to go by. That will keep abuse from occurring.”  Murphy cited reports that DeKalb County raked in more than $550,000 in fees in less than a year.

The original legislation was sponsored by state Rep. Mike Jacobs, a Republican lawmaker whose district includes DeKalb County.  The bill is a carryover from last year, when it stalled as lobbyists for cities and counties raised concerns that the bill could have unintended consequences. Several people representing groups who opposed the original version remarked that they had not seen the updated proposal until Monday’s committee hearing and were still evaluating whether it is an improvement.  “County and city elected officials are hearing a lot from the public about this,” said Clint Mueller, a spokesman for the Association of County Commissioners of Georgia. “There are a lot of foreclosed and properties that are not being taken care of. We have no idea where to even begin to find out who is responsible.”  Still, Mueller said it is important to ensure that municipalities are not punished in an effort to address the issue through state legislation.  “It could have far-reaching effects if it’s not done right,” he said.  If approved, the law would take effect July 1.

Small business optimism edges up

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.8 points to 93.8.  Eight of the index’s 10 components were either improved or flat. About half the gain was due to reduced concern about business conditions six months into the future, the NFIB said.  The index is still in recession territory, however, 6 points below the pre-recession average and more than 10 points below the same point in the recovery from the 2001 recession.  The gains in the index are supportive of the view that economic growth will pick up in 2012, but the gains are not likely to be substantial unless the index rises more sharply, the business group said.  The NFIB reported earlier this month that small businesses cut staff in December. The% of businesses reporting reductions in employment remained relatively low, but the percentage increasing employment, though larger, did not offset the losses and remains historically low for an expansion.

Zillow – 3 – 5 years away from normal

Real estate website Zillow.com on Tuesday released a report that shows South Florida home values were flat in November.  Zillow’s Home Value Index for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties was $137,000 – up 0.1% from October.  Values here have been flat or positive for seven of the past nine months. Prior to that, though, values had declined in 66 of the previous 67 months.  Zillow said home values in South Florida have fallen about 4% from a year ago and 55% from the 2006 peak.  Zillow’s report comes a day after a mostly encouraging forecast from the Clear Capital research firm.  Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow, said in a statement that supply and demand are still out of whack in many markets, and more foreclosures in 2012 are expected to hurt home values.  “Even with the anticipated increase in foreclosures, look for 2012 to be a transitional year in which home values fall modestly followed by a prolonged period of flat home values,” he said. “We’re still three to five years away from ‘normal’ housing market conditions.”

New details for MF Global

The investigation into MF Global is intensifying as federal authorities unearth new details and confront potential obstacles in their hunt for roughly $1.2 billion in customer money that disappeared from the brokerage firm.  While prosecutors and regulators have jointly conducted dozens of depositions with former and current employees, a senior official in the Chicago office of MF Global recently declined to meet with the federal authorities, people briefed on the investigation said.  That official, Edith O’Brien, a treasurer at MF Global, is considered a “person of interest” in the investigation, the people said. Federal authorities suspect that she transferred about $200 million to JPMorgan Chase in London on the eve of the bankruptcy of MF Global, money that turned out to be customer cash.  Authorities had expected to interview Ms. O’Brien last month. She instead balked at meeting voluntarily, asking first to strike a deal with criminal authorities that would excuse her from prosecution, the people said. The criminal investigation is led by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and federal prosecutors in Chicago and Manhattan.  The request by Ms. O’Brien is the first in this case, one person briefed on the investigation said. Still, such requests are common in federal investigations and it does not suggest that she violated Wall Street regulations. Ms. O’Brien has not been accused of any wrongdoing, and there is no indication that she intentionally transferred customer money to JPMorgan.  Ms. O’Brien’s lawyer, Reid H. Weingarten, did not respond to requests for comment.

WSJ – mall occupancy up slightly

US malls and shopping centers experienced a slight improvement in occupancy during the fourth quarter, a relief for landlords that have been battling lackluster demand from retailers for most of the downturn.  But data service Reis Inc. cautioned that any recovery remains precarious and the outlook for this year is mixed, given the clouds hovering over the economy. While some retailers are expanding—such as Forever 21 Inc., Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. and Dollar General Corp.—landlords can expect more headaches from high-profile store closures by companies such as Sears Holdings Corp. and Gap Inc.  The fourth quarter typically is the strongest for retail landlords as well as their tenants. Still, the fourth quarter of last year was one of the strongest since the recession hit, in terms of rising rents and occupancies.

Malls in the top 80 US markets posted an average vacancy rate of 9.2% in the quarter, down from the 11-year high of 9.4% in the third quarter, according to Reis, which began tracking mall data in 2000. Mall vacancies had been climbing steadily for most of the downturn since 2007, when the vacancy rate fell as low as 5.5%.  Demand for space at neighborhood and community shopping centers also strengthened in the quarter, with stores occupying an additional 3.1 million square feet in the top 80 markets. Because of new construction, vacancy in this category remained at 11%, where it has been for three quarters, a level last seen in 1991.  Owners of retail property have been hit hard during the downturn by overbuilding, consumer caution and competition from online shopping. In the three years covering 2008 through 2010, retailers at neighborhood and community shopping centers vacated a total of 31.6 million square feet, according to Reis.  But the most recent quarter’s results indicate that the worst might be over, especially with the economy adding jobs. A decent holiday shopping season also gave the retail property sector a boost, with 23 national chains reporting an average sales gain of 3.4% in November and December at stores open at least a year, according to Retail Metrics Inc.

The average annual rent at US malls rose to $38.92 a square foot in the fourth quarter, a 0.3% increase from the third quarter and the second consecutive quarterly gain, according to Reis. Mall rents had been mostly flat or declining since 2008.  Average annual rents at US strip centers increased 0.1% in the fourth quarter to $19.04 a square foot after 13 consecutive quarters of remaining flat or declining.  Retail landlords also have been helped by a virtual shutdown in new store construction, meaning they face less competition for tenants. Only 4.5 million square feet of shopping-center space opened in 2010, the lowest figure in 31 years, according to Reis. Last year was slightly higher, with only 4.9 million square feet being delivered.

HARP 2.0 effects to be seen soon

Effects of the retooled Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) may start to appear next month, analysts said yesterday.  Since the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) announced changes to HARP in October, servicers have been adjusting operations. Upfront fees, loan-to-value ratio caps and representation and warranty claims on the old loan file were eliminated for eligible borrowers.  The program launched in March 2009. Roughly 838,000 Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowers were able to refinance into lower rates, but only about 7% of them had LTVs above 105%.

Prepayments slowed in December, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BOAML) analysts, dropping 6% on Fannie Mae securities backed by 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.  “We anticipate another uneventful month in January before February provides the first glimpse into the new program’s prospects. Even before then, it is interesting to note that HARP-eligible pools — which responded slowly at the start of the current refinancing wave — continued to show slow, steady prepayment increases this month,” BOAML analysts said.

Rumors stirred of another plan from the White House to boost more refinancing. A white paper from the Federal Reserve made the case for one, along with other suggestions to address still lingering housing problems.  Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said Monday that modifying all coupon stacks of mortgage-backed securities would violate the prospectus. The loans, analysts said, need to be at risk of imminent default for such an action. If Washington started a refi wave on GSE loans and everything was moved into a 4% mortgage, Chase analysts believe it would only result in a total of $25 billion to $30 billion in annual savings for borrowers.  “The dollar savings of such a move are modest in light of the overall economy,” the analysts said and would merely be a transfer of wealth from investors to borrowers. “HARP 2.0 theoretically addresses many refi hurdles, and we will learn over the next six months how successful it will be.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin January 6, 2012

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

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*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

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************************************************************

NAR – short sales key to solving crisis

Stabilizing and restoring the health of the housing market is critical to a broader economic recovery, according to a white paper released yesterday by the Federal Reserve Board. Many of the issues and recommendations outlined in the paper support key principles established by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to help revitalize the housing industry and economy.

The white paper, The US Housing Market: Current Conditions and Policy Considerations, calls for increased lending to creditworthy home buyers and more loan modifications, mortgage refinancings, and short sales to reduce the rising inventory of foreclosed homes and help stabilize and revitalize the housing industry; an approach long recommended by NAR to help spur the housing market recovery.  “As the nation’s leading advocate for homeownership and housing issues, NAR knows that a strong housing market recovery is key to the nation’s future economic strength,” said NAR President Moe Veissi. “Improving access to affordable mortgage financing for qualified home buyers and investors and aggressively pursuing more loan modifications and short sales is necessary to help reenergize the housing market and spur an economic recovery.”

For homeowners who are unable to meet their mortgage obligations, NAR has urged lenders and servicers to quickly approve reasonable short sale offers so these people can avoid foreclosure. The short sale process can be time-consuming and inefficient, and many would-be buyers end up walking away from the transaction.  “Loan modifications and short sales help stabilize home values and neighborhoods, and limit the losses incurred by lenders, the federal government and taxpayers, which is good for everyone,” said Veissi.

Jobs report strong

Non-farm payrolls jumped 200,000 in December, according to the Labor Department, pushing the jobless rate to a near three-year low of 8.5%. Economists polled by Reuters expected a gain of 150,000.  “Today’s figure should not come as a great surprise,” said Todd Schoenberger, managing director of LandColt Trading, adding that recent macro data had been pointing to good results. “The wildcard is January as retailers trim seasonal staff. An upside surprise for this month will validate the argument that an economic recovery is, indeed, talking place.”  The report comes after a handful of employment reports on Thursday that boosted sentiment as the number of planned layoffs at US firms fell to its lowest level since June last year, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Private sector employment climbed 325,000 in December, much stronger than expected, according to payrolls processor ADP.

Bove – mortgage refinancing will hurt banks

Speculation that a new mortgage refinancing plan may be introduced drove bank stocks higher Thursday, but noted banking analyst Dick Bove believes investors actually got it wrong. He told Larry Kudlow that a program like that would actually “harm” banks.  “It’s bad for banks, it doesn’t help them in any way, shape or form,” Bove said.  The speculation was fueled by reports that suggested the White House may be preparing a new trillion-dollar plan to refinance home loans. However, administration officials told CNBC’s Dana Olick that they are not considering a $1 trillion refinancing program.  The fact that bank stocks went up on the possibility of such a program makes no sense whatsoever, Bove said. In fact, he thinks a mortgage refinancing plan would cause banks to lose money.  “If you add up all the sources of profit or loss,” he said, “they lose more than they gain.”  So why did the banks, like Bank of America, shoot up higher? Bove thinks it was a simple misreading of what a mortgage refinancing program would do for the banking industry.

He believes investors may have thought it might affect foreclosures, putbacks to the banking industry and the service income of the industry. However, Bove said it would do none of that.  “It harms the banking industry,” he said. “All it is, is taking a lot money from one class of people and giving it to another class of people under the theory that the second class of people would spend the money more than the first class.”  And banks aren’t the only ones which could be hurt, Bove said. Only 21% of the mortgages in the US are held by the banks. 55% held by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and mortgage pools, and the remainder is held by investors, he said.  “So the net affect is the people you are taking the money away from are the taxpayers and the investors.”

Unemployment down

The Labor Department said Friday that employers added a net 200,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 8.5%, the lowest since February 2009. The rate has dropped for four straight months.  The hiring gains cap a six-month stretch in which the economy generated 100,000 jobs or more in each month. That hasn’t happened since April 2006.  For all of 2011, the economy added 1.6 million jobs, better than the 940,000 added in 2010. The unemployment rate averaged 8.9% last year, down from 9.6% the previous year.  Economists forecast that the job gains will top 2.1 million this year.

The December report painted a picture of a broadly improving job market. Average hourly pay rose, providing consumers with more income to spend. The average work week lengthened, a sign that business is picking up and companies may soon need more workers. And hiring was strong across almost all major industries.  Manufacturing added 23,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing added 50,000 jobs. Retailers added 28,000 jobs. Even the beleaguered construction industry added 17,000 workers.  A more robust hiring market coincides with other positive data that show the economy ended the year with some momentum.  Weekly applications for unemployment benefits have fallen to levels last seen more than three years ago. Holiday sales were solid. And November and December were the strongest months of 2011 for US auto sales.  Many businesses say they are ready to step up hiring in early 2012 after seeing stronger consumer confidence and greater demand for their products.

Olick – renter nation

“Despite record low mortgage rates reported today and rising affordability in most US housing markets, rent is the new reality for former home owners and new households alike.  For some it is post-traumatic stress from the housing crash, for others it is the inability to get financing to buy a home. Either way, the rental market continues on its tear.  In the last quarter of 2011, the apartment sector saw its largest quarterly increase in occupied stock of the year, according to Reis, Inc.  The vacancy rate dropped to 5.2%, the lowest since 2001 and lower than the last cyclical drop in 2006.  This bucks the historical seasonal weakness typical of the colder months of the year. The fourth quarter also tends to be a weaker leasing period, according to Reis, given that most households make moving decisions in the second and third quarters.

This surge in occupancy pushed asking and effective rents up 0.4 and 0.5% respectively, which Reis calls the only disappointing figures for the sector, missing expectations. Reis blames that on slow economic growth and still high unemployment.  ‘Higher quality properties in the most desirable locations posted rent gains in excess of 5-10%, while class B/C properties, catering to lower income tenants, found it relatively more difficult to raise rents,’ notes Victor Calanog, head of research at Reis.  Nowhere is that more evident than in the Washington, DC metro area where rents are way up across the city, and developers are rushing to erect new multi-family buildings and rehab old ones.  ‘Everybody wants to be in DC,’ beams Richard Key, district manager for Camden Property Trust, one of the largest publicly traded multifamily REITs in the nation. ‘Whereas in other markets there are deals, when you get to DC area, all the REITs want to be here, and so we’re all competing for the same piece of land, and that’s driving the price up. That is really is a challenge for us.’  Key is convinced that there has been a fundamental shift in attitudes toward home ownership that will last for several more years. He is not concerned that the pendulum will swing back to buying, just as all that new rental stock hits the market around 2014. Camden has seen rents on its DC properties rise over 5% in just the past year.  ‘The nice part is we haven’t seen a drop in occupancies with that rent growth, and so the hope is that we’re able to maintain our historical occupancies and continue to see that 5, 6, gosh, 7% is not out of the question in the next couple of years,’ says Key.

Washington, DC will likely see those higher rents because home prices didn’t fall very high during the housing crash and are already rebounding. It and Detroit were the only major markets posting annual gains on the latest S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  Other markets, like Las Vegas, where home prices are rock-bottom thanks to a huge supply of foreclosures, the rental market is tougher for developers and landlords.  As for renter society, it is also being fueled by tight mortgage underwriting. Rates may be at record lows, but only if you can get them. In a paper released Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke noted, ‘Continued efforts are needed to find an appropriate balance between prudent lending and appropriate consumer protection, on the one hand, and not unduly restricting mortgage credit, on the other hand.’  Until that balance is found, potential home buyers will stay on the sidelines, those sidelines being rental apartments. A new twist to watch, however, may be that rental nation will go single family.  With so many bank owned homes left to clear, and so many in government and the private sector looking at bulk rental investments, apartments may have big competition in the same neighborhoods where they used to compete against single family buyers.”

IRS audits millionaires

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) audited one in eight millionaires who filed taxes last year while only auditing 1 in 100 individuals earning less than $200,000 in an effort to “assure that there’s equity in the system.”  Just 1 in 100 individuals earning less than $200,000 had their income tax returns examined, the IRS said.  The 12% of millionaire earners audited in 2011 was appreciably higher than the 8% who were audited in 2010. IRS officials said the high ratio was part of an effort to demonstrate that tax laws are applied fairly.  “That has been something we’ve concentrated on to assure that there’s equity in the system, to assure that those at the lower end of the spectrum know that those at the higher end of the spectrum are subject to the same rules and enforcement as everyone else,” Steven Miller, deputy IRS commissioner for services and enforcement, said in an interview.  In recent weeks, President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats have sought to boost taxes on the wealthy as a way to pay for jobs programs, a theme they are expected to continue in this presidential and congressional election year. IRS spokeswoman Michelle Eldridge said the growing portion of millionaire earners’ returns audited is not related to politics.  Yeah right.  Message to Americans:  Achieve the American dream and we’ll audit you.

WSJ – business using more space

The US office market showed modest signs of improvement in the last three months of 2011, as employers slowly expanded in an uncertain economic climate.  The national office-vacancy rate stood at 17.3% in the fourth quarter, slightly down from 17.4% three months earlier, according to real-estate research firm Reis Inc. But the rate remains stubbornly high, down just slightly from the post-downturn peak of 17.6%, reached in mid-2010.  The office market generally reflects employment trends and companies’ views on growth over the next few years. With job growth slow, companies have been reluctant to add new space.

The sector is still struggling with high levels of vacancy not seen since the early 1990s, a hangover from the sharp pullback by businesses during the downturn. The amount of space occupied by businesses fell by 137 million square feet from 2008 to 2010, according to Reis, which tracks 79 metropolitan areas.  By contrast, employers occupied just an additional 20.7 million square feet in all of 2011. “We’re not seeing huge moves down in vacancy,” said Chris Connelly, who heads the Chicago office for CBRE Group, a commercial-real-estate brokerage. “We’re just niggling away at it.”  Overall rents have been creeping up, with landlords seeking an average rent of $27.97 per square foot per year in the fourth quarter, up 0.4% from the third quarter.

Still, markets vary widely, depending on whether they are home to growing industries. Cities hard-hit by the housing crisis, such as Las Vegas and Phoenix, have among the highest vacancy rates in the country, above 25%.  Meanwhile, growth in the technology and energy sectors has accelerated a recovery in areas such as Northern California and cities in Texas. Last month, landlord Brookfield Office Properties Inc. signed a 141,000-square-foot lease in Houston with Italian energy company Eni SpA, which is taking a space that is 42% larger than its current lease, according to Brookfield.  “If those drivers aren’t there, you’re probably pretty much seeing a very slow, gradual recovery,” said John Sikaitis, director of office research for brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

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About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin January 5, 2012

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California homeowners sue Capital One over short sales

Homeowners say in a class action that Capital One illegally made them pay thousands of dollars in deficiency contributions after short sales of their homes, though the state prohibited that in 2010.       Then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger signed Senate Bill 931 into law in late 2010 to reduce foreclosures and boost short sales.  Before the law took effect in January 2011, homeowners had no incentive to short sell their homes because while lenders could not obtain a deficiency judgment on foreclosed properties, they could go after homeowners who sold short.

“However, it quickly became apparent that where there was a second mortgage, the junior lien holder often refused to release the lien and the short sale never went through,” according to the complaint.  “In February 2011, SB 458 was introduced, and on July 15, 2011, it was signed into law on an emergency basis. Section (a) of SB 458 expanded SB 931′s prohibition on obtaining a deficiency judgment to junior lien holders. Additionally, Section (b) of SB 458 further mandate that a ‘holder of a note shall not require the trustor, mortgagor, or maker of the note to pay any additional compensation, aside from the proceeds of the sale, in exchange for the written consent to the sale.’…Capital One has refused to comply with SB 458. In clear violation of the statute’s unambiguous prohibition, Capital One has illegally required California borrowers to pay the deficiency on their mortgages, in addition to ‘the proceeds of the sale, in exchange for [Capital One's] written consent to the sale.’ As a result, Capital One has generated substantial revenues from the collection of deficiencies from California-based borrowers in connection with completing short sales”.

The plaintiffs are represented by Mary Blasy with Scott+Scott of San Diego.  They seek damages for violations of California’s Code of Civil Procedure, violations of California’s Business and Professional Code, conversion and unjust enrichment.  A Capital One spokeswoman would not comment on the lawsuit.

Job claims and layoffs down, hiring up

The news is all good for the jobs market so far in 2012: Separate reports Thursday showed a surge in private-sector job creation, a sharp drop in weekly unemployment claims and planned layoffs at their lowest level in six months.  Private-sector jobs surged by 325,000, according to ADP and Macroeconomic Advisors, while the government said weekly jobless claims fell 15,000 to 372,000 — still at an elevated level but consistent with recent data showing a consistent if grudging turnaround.  Goods-producing businesses created 176,000 positions in the month, according to ADP’s payrolls count, while the goods-producing sector rose 52,000 and manufacturing increased 22,000.  For the government’s weekly claims tabulation, it was the fourth drop in five weeks. The four-week average, which smooths fluctuations, declined to 373,250, the lowest level since June 2008.  Applications have declined steadily over the past three months.  The four-week average fell 11% in 2011, evidence that companies are laying off fewer workers. But many employers have been slow to add jobs.

The reports come a day ahead of the Labor Department’s monthly report expected to show 150,000 total jobs created in the public and private sectors.  In a related report, the number of planned layoffs at US firms declined to its lowest level since June, suggesting ongoing improvement in the labor market although unemployment remains historically high, a report on Thursday showed.  Employers announced 41,785 planned job cuts last month, down 1.6% from 42,474 in November, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas.  But December’s job cuts were up from the same time a year ago, rising 31% from the 32,004 job cuts announced in December 2010. For all of 2011, employers announced 606,082 cuts, up 14% from the 529,973 layoffs in 2010.  The 183,064 government job cuts in 2011 represented a record high for that sector since Challenger began tracking it in 2002. And while the financial sector did not come close to its record high, annual cuts for the sector were 63,624, up 165% from 2010.  The report showing a further decline in job cuts comes one day ahead of the US Labor Department’s key US jobs report, which is forecast to show a 150,000 increase in non-farm payrolls.  Challenger said planned hirings in December totaled 14,074, down from 63,527 in November but up from 10,575 a year earlier. For all of 2011, announced new jobs totaled 537,572, up from 402,638 in 2010.

Fed – foreclosure is not the best solution

More than four years into the housing crisis, and after millions of Americans have lost their homes, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is finally taking a stand.  Bernanke sent a Federal Reserve paper to the leaders of the House of Representatives’ Committee on Financial Services arguing that relying heavily on foreclosures to deal with mortgage borrowers that can’t meet their obligations is “costly and inefficient” for the housing market because they can lead to deteriorating homes and weigh on the property values in the surrounding community.  Instead, the paper encourages lenders to “aggressively” pursue loan modifications and for servicers to be given more incentives to seek alternatives to foreclosure. Foreclosures “can result in ‘deadweight losses,’ or costs that do not benefit anyone, including the neglect and deterioration of properties that often sit vacant for months (or even years) and the associated negative effects on neighborhoods,” the paper said. “These deadweight losses compound the losses that households and creditors already bear and can result in further downward pressure on house prices.”

The paper mirrors findings from regional Fed banks indicating that foreclosures can be detrimental to more Americans than just those who are losing their homes. Properties that are occupied, but in foreclosure, drive down the surrounding property values twice as much as vacant properties, an October study from the Cleveland Federal Reserve found.  And with millions of foreclosed properties already in the pipeline, the foreclosure process is already taking longer than in recent memory — a situation that may only be exacerbated if lenders don’t take the Fed’s advice. The average foreclosure process now takes 674 days, almost triple the time necessary in 2007.

Sales mixed in December

Although analysts were expecting sales at stores open at least 12 months to rise an average of 3.3%, according to Thomson Reuters Same-Store Sales Index. There were plenty of headwinds including mild winter weather and high levels of unemployment that retailers grappled with during December.  The results were a mixed bag, with retailers such as Macy’s Limited and Zumiez, posting solid results and raising their earnings forecast. But the results were different for others such as discounter Target, which fell short of analysts’ expectations and cut its outlook for the fourth quarter.  Target said same-store sales rose 1.6%, far short of the 3.1% average analyst estimate from Thomson Reuters. As a result of its weak sales, Target cut its fourth-quarter earnings estimate to a range of $1.35 to $1.43 a share, from a prior estimate of $1.43 to $1.53 a share.  “December sales were below our expectations as growth in grocery and beauty offset softness in electronics and music, movies and books,” said Gregg Steinhafel, chairman, president and chief executive officer of Target, in a press release. “Sales and traffic were strongest in the week leading up to Christmas as guests waited to shop for last-minute gifts.”  Others who posted weak results blamed the mild winter temperatures, which hurt sales of winter apparel and other winter merchandise.

Olick – Richard Cordray appointment to have big impact

“Barely a few hours after the White House confirmed that President Obama would use a controversial recess appointment to install former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray as the director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), both Obama and Cordray were sitting at the dining room table of Endia and William Eason; the Easons, both in their 90s, nearly lost their home due to ‘trickery and abuse’ by a non-bank mortgage broker.  ‘The Easons need someone who will stand up for them,’ President Obama told a crowd later at a Cleveland high school. ‘Millions of Americans need someone who will look out for their interests. They need someone like Richard.’  Part of Richard Cordray’s job will be to increase oversight of mortgage brokers, which has already started with new underwriting standards mandated by the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation. His appointment will finally allow the CFPB to start regulating non-depository firms (non-bank lenders), which up to now it could not.  ‘And that could have a big impact,’ says Guy Cecala, CEO and Publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance. ‘A lot of these firms – ranging from mortgage brokers to large lenders like PHH – have effectively escaped regulation in the past. Now they will not only have to submit to reporting but also lending regulations previously only extended to depository institutions.’

That will likely take a while, as Cordray settles in, but there are more near-term implications of the appointment, like that he could potentially help finalize a deal with the state attorneys general and the big banks over the so-called ‘robo-signing’ scandal.  ‘As a former AG, he could use that to his advantage in the ongoing negotiations with the AGs,’ notes Edward Mills, policy analyst at FBR. ‘Beyond a settlement, what we would be looking for are updated disclosure documents that are easier for consumers to understand and a definition of what is a ‘qualified mortgage’ – which sets in place new consumer protections on all mortgages.’  And even beyond the short and long term implications of Cordray’s new role at the CFPB is the significance of the recess appointment itself on something even more crucial to housing: The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), overseer of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The FHFA has been run by an acting director, Edward DeMarco, for several years.  DeMarco has stood in the way of various government attempts to use Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA to help troubled borrowers and resuscitate the overall housing market. He has consistently argued that his job is to protect the books of these mortgage giants, not to ameliorate the dyspeptic housing market.  If the President can use the recess appointment for Cordray, then he could potentially use it to replace the very controversial DeMarco.  ‘A different FHFA director might take a more expansive view of what is needed to help housing,’ notes Jaret Seiberg, financial services policy analyst at Guggenheim Securities. ‘That opens the door to much bigger refinancing programs than what have been adopted so far. For borrowers, that means lower rates which helps the economy, helps housing and helps the President’s re-election effort.’”

Regional banks to improve in 2012?

This year should be a better one for regional banks than 2011, Barclays Capital banking analyst Jason Goldberg said yesterday.  Goldberg, who predicted in October that the banks will improve as long as the US economy improves, said that last year was “clearly disappointing” since 2011 started with expectations of 3% gross domestic product growth and ended with only a 1.7% rise.  There was also uncertainty about how the international Basel 3 bank solvency requirements and the US Dodd-Frank financial services law would affect regionals, plus the concerns about Europe’s solvency. Goldberg expects those factors to have less of an impact on the banks in 2012.  He is “overweight” on regional banks that “used the economic downturn to improve their franchises,” including bigger Wells Fargo, US Bancorp and PNC Financial. These banks, he said, “made acquisitions to improve their franchise and took market share from their struggling peers.”  Goldberg also likes Capital One, which “clearly benefited in 2011 from a much improved environment, in terms of credit quality for credit cards.” He says it will see a “modest pickup in growth” this year, thanks to two pending acquisitions.

Housing starts to rise in 2012?

Housing starts have hit their low point and will gradually pick up this year, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said yesterday.  “We’re pretty confident that housing starts have bottomed at this point,” he said. “It’s going to gradually pick up as the still large amount of vacancies and excess supply comes down.”  Housing prices, however, will continue to fall until hitting bottom in the second half of the year, according to Goldman’s forecast.  Hatzius said the price bubble of 2006 has finally disappeared, and housing is now “fairly valued,” but there will be “some small declines in house prices for most of this year basically because of the excess supply that’s still out there. But we’re pretty confident that we’re pretty close to the bottom here.”

Hatzius is also confident the Federal Reserve will have some form of quantitative easing later this year.  “We think they’re still missing their dual mandate significantly on the weak side, even with all the policy measures that they’ve already taken,” he said of the Fed.  There is still a “big gap” between the current unemployment rate of 8.6% and the Fed’s estimate of “sustainable unemployment” of 6%, Hatzius said.  ”We don’t think that gap is going to significantly diminish in the course of this year, so I think they’re going to target that.”  He also thinks inflation is going to go below the Fed’s target by the end of the year. The Fed said in November it was comfortable with the current inflation level of 3.9%, which includes food and energy prices, or 2% excluding them.  Hatzius also reiterated Goldman’s forecast for a still sluggish recovery of 2% or so in 2012. the year “won’t look that different from 2011,” he said, with the first half of this year slower than the second half of last year.

Factory orders up in November

Orders to US factories rose sharply November on a surge in demand for airplanes. But demand for goods that signal business investment plans fell for the second straight month.  The Commerce Department said orders to US factories rose 1.8% in November, following two months of declines. It was the best showing since a 2.1% gain in July.  But orders for so-called core capital goods, such as computers and electronic equipment, dropped 1.2% following a 0.9% decline in October. The category is closely watched because it is a good proxy for business investment.  Manufacturing has been one of the bright spots in this sub-par recovery but there is concern that US exports could falter if debt problems in Europe push that region into a severe recession.

HUD suspends affordable housing firm

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) suspended James Grier and Philadelphia-based Mantua Gardens East Inc., a Section 8 apartment complex, from doing business with the government, alleging the company improperly threatened tenants with eviction and withdrew thousands of dollars from reserves without permission.  HUD also proposed their debarments to prevent Grier and the company from participating in government-related business for five years. Grier could not be reached for comment. A phone number for Mantua Gardens East was disconnected and a management firm connected with the apartment complex was closed Wednesday evening when a reporter called.  HUD said Grier and MGE improperly withdrew $325,000 from reserves without HUD approval and submitted false and misleading financial reports to HUD. MGE also failed to provide sufficient notice to tenants of its intention to opt out of the Section 8 project-based program, denying them adequate time to make housing arrangements and threatening them with eviction. Section 8 is a HUD affordable housing program. It includes housing vouchers for low-income residents as well as project-based financing such as that provided to MGE.

MGE agreed to a $720,000 mortgage loan in 1970 insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). As an FHA mortgagor, MGE is required to establish and maintain a reserve account to meet emergency needs at the apartment complex, which comprises 10 buildings in Philadelphia’s University City neighborhood.  In 2008, Grier and MGE improperly withdrew reserves without HUD approval and then refused to restore the funds, HUD said. Grier and MGE pledged the funds, along with one of the development’s buildings and future rent payments, as collateral for a separate loan from a lending institution, according to HUD.  MGE received project-based Section 8 subsidies for nearly 30 years. Under the terms of the contract, MGE was entitled to opt out of the contract, but was first required to provide one year’s notice to the tenants. In October 2011, MGE notified HUD that it was opting out of the program but failed to properly notify tenants, HUD said.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

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http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com