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Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin February 8, 2012

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Bank deal holdouts have the most foreclosures

California, New York, Nevada, and Massachusetts are among the states that haven’t signed off on a settlement with banks over foreclosure abuses, according to state officials and two people familiar with the talks. The holdouts include some with the highest rates of foreclosures. More than 6% of Nevada housing units had at least one foreclosure filing in 2011, the nation’s highest rate, according to RealtyTrac. California was third-highest with more than 3%, said the firm, which tracks foreclosures. California Attorney General Kamala Harris and New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, who have been among the most outspoken in pushing for changes to the accord, were among those who hadn’t joined as of a Feb. 6 deadline.

More than 40 states originally signed on, said Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, who is helping to lead talks with the banks. “Adding more numbers probably improves the political dimension of the settlement from the standpoint of the attorneys general,” said Ken Scott, a Stanford University law professor. “If you can say there were only a handful of diehards that didn’t sign on, that gives you some political protection.” All 50 states announced almost 16 months ago they were investigating bank foreclosure practices following disclosures that faulty documents were being used to seize homes. Officials from states and federal agencies, including the Justice Department, have since negotiated terms of a proposed settlement with five banks that is said to be worth as much as $25 billion. At the time of this posting, Arizona, Michigan and Florida have also joined the other 40 states in the deal, for a total of 43.

Still hope for Keystone pipeline?

A plan to fast-track the stalled Keystone XL pipeline was passed by a key committee in the US House of Representatives on Tuesday, as Republicans made yet another attempt to spur approval of the project that has become a major issue in the 2012 elections. The bill would wrest decision-making on the pipeline from the Obama administration and hand it to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which would be compelled to quickly issue approval permits on the Canada-to-Texas project. But the plan would need to clear several more Congressional hurdles, including getting through Democratic opposition in the Senate, before it could land on President Barack Obama’s desk for approval. In a decision last month that pleased environmental groups, Obama blocked TransCanada’s $7 billion project, citing the need for further review of its route as the line would have traversed sensitive lands and an aquifer in Nebraska. Republicans have made the pipeline a symbol of what they believe are unnecessary regulations that are stifling job creation and energy production in the United States. Opponents cite possible environmental hazards including spills from the pipeline connecting western Canada to Houston.

Today, the House Energy and Commerce Committee voted 33-20 to send its Keystone bill to the full House, where it will likely become part of a highway and infrastructure funding bill that House Speaker John Boehner wants to see passed this month. But getting a similar measure through the Democratic-controlled Senate could be a tougher fight. A Republican member of the Senate Finance Committee has floated a Keystone provision to attach the Senate’s highway funding bill, a measure that may come up for discussion later today. Republicans also have not ruled out trying to attach a Keystone provision to must-pass payroll tax cut legislation. “We’re going to use all options, so we’ll see,” said Fred Upton of Michigan, the Republican chair of the energy committee, who is also part of joint Senate-House conference panel working on the payroll tax cut compromise.

MBA – mortgage applications up

Mortgage applications increased 7.5% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 3, 2012. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 7.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8.7% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 9.4% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6% compared with the previous week and was 4.1% lower than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 4.88%. The four week moving average is up 0.65% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 5.72% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 80.5% of total applications from 80.0% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.0% from 5.6% of total applications from the previous week. During the month of January, the investor share of applications for home purchase was at 6.4%, a decrease from 6.9% in December. This change was led by a decline in the West and East North Central regions. In addition, the share of purchase mortgages for second homes increased to 5.9% in January from 5.4% in December.

Five banks bid on AIG assets

Another batch of the riskiest mortgage-backed securities once owned by the American International Group are being auctioned off this week, according to two people familiar with the matter, a sale that would bring the insurance giant’s 2008 meltdown once step closer to a resolution. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York took control of the assets after A.I.G. was bailed out in 2008. They are being auctioned to a group of bidders that includes Credit Suisse, Barclays Capital, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Royal Bank of Scotland. Bids are due on Wednesday, and a winner will likely be identified by Friday. The auction will be the second major sale of the year of assets held by the New York Fed in a vehicle known as Maiden Lane II, which absorbed A.I.G.’s soured residential mortgage-backed securities after the 2008 bailout. Last month, Credit Suisse won an auction for bonds from the vehicle with a face value of around $7 billion, which it promptly sold to clients including hedge funds and other banks. The success of that auction led to another bid by one of the five firms for more Maiden Lane II assets, and signaled that the market for residential mortgage-backed securities, the bête noires of the financial crisis, has improved since last year. The New York Fed conducted a sale of some of the Maiden Lane II bonds last June, but had to halt the sale when it created turmoil in the bond market. The bonds being sold in this auction have a face value of roughly $6 billion, about half the amount remaining in Maiden Lane II, according to the people. The auction was earlier reported by The Wall Street Journal.

Hicks – market earnings to decline

“In 2010, inventory restocking contributed most to U.S GDP growth. In 2011, it was the rebound of private investment due to Obama’s capital equipment tax credit contributing most to U.S GDP growth. The US consumer, though, hasn’t really been jumpstarted over the past two years. That is why earnings multiples on the S&P 500 continued to decrease, despite stellar earnings growth from emerging markets. Last week’s Q4’11 GDP numbers confirmed, for me, that 2012 will be another year with little US consumer growth, and that earnings multiples for most companies (even those companies named after fruit) will likely continue to compress as we head further into this year. Currently, the S&P 500 trades at 11x 2013 consensus EPS of $117.50. S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 11.7% in 2013 vs. Solutia’s earnings growth of 17% in 2013. So when a leading chemical company is only willing to pay 11x 2013 earnings growth (minus substantial synergies) for a company currently estimated to deliver 17% earnings growth in 2013, why is the market paying 11x 2013 earnings growth for the S&P 500 currently estimated to deliver 11.7% earnings growth in 2013? This represents a massive disconnect between investor sentiment and corporate America.”

Olick – 40 states sign on [edit to add 3 more, as above]

“After more than a year of negotiations, attorneys general from more than 40 states signed on to a proposed settlement agreement with five of the nation’s largest mortgage servicers over ‘robo-signing’ foreclosure processing abuses, according to the lead negotiator, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller. ‘This enables us to move forward into the very final stages of remaining work. Federal and state officials, as well as representatives from the banks, continue to address matters that they must complete before finalizing any settlement,’ Miller said in a statement released late Monday. The deal with Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Ally Financial will reportedly total $25 billion. Some $17 billion of that would go toward writing down mortgage principal for an estimated 850,000 troubled borrowers, $3 billion could go toward restitution payments of $1,500 each to borrowers who lost their homes to foreclosure, and the rest could go to state funds for foreclosure relief, according to reports and estimates by Inside Mortgage Finance. The total could be less, however, if California does not sign on. As of late Monday, officials there said Attorney General Kamala Harris had not agreed to the proposal. ‘For the past 13 months we have been working for a resolution that brings real relief to the hardest-hit homeowners, is transparent about who benefits, and will ensure accountability. We are closer now than we’ve been before but we’re not there yet,’ Harris said in a statement earlier that officials in her office said still stood after Iowa’s announcement. California accounts for nearly a quarter of the nation’s foreclosures in the latest housing crash.

New York also did not sign on to the deal, according to sources in Attorney General Eric Schneiderman’s office. Schneiderman had said he would not sign, but reports earlier in the week suggested he was reconsidering, given his new roll as co-chair of a Justice Department task force to investigate mortgage-related abuses. Attorneys general from Delaware and Nevada also have reportedly not agreed to the deal. Despite the Feb. 6 deadline, states can still sign on and the expectation is that more will. So-called robo-signing, where thousands of foreclosure documents are signed by one employee without proper verification, came to light in the fall of 2010. Miller formed the coalition of attorneys general to investigate major bank servicers in October 2010. Allegations of forgery and abuse in the documentation process ground foreclosures nearly to a halt for much of 2011, as servicers reviewed and changed the way they process foreclosure documents. They are just now ramping up again in states where foreclosures are not required to go before a judge, or non-judicial states. In judicial states, foreclosures can now take up to three years. Miller’s office would give no details as to the agreement, or the states that committed to it.

Gold holds steady

Gold prices held steady around $1,745 an ounce today, as investors waited with caution for Greece to grind towards a deal on a rescue package that it urgently needs after missing a string of deadlines. Athens tested investor’s patience yet again yesterday by postponing a decision on whether to accept austerity and reform measures in exchange for a 130 billion euro ($172 billion) bailout from the IMF and EU. Gold could face a short-term pullback if Greece strikes a deal, as it may hurt the appeal of safe-haven assets, but in the long run the lingering euro zone debt crisis is expected to support sentiment in gold. “If Greece were to agree on everything right away, I don’t think it would solve everything because they will still have to implement the measures,” said Jeremy Friesen, commodity strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong. “There are plenty of land mines left.”

Major investor blames the bailout

As sales languish and prices continue to fall, Sam Zell, the head of Equity Group Investments and numerous other ventures, pinned the blame on policies that refused to allow market forces to take hold. “Rather than let the elements of the business world take care of the problems, we basically stopped the process of creating market clearing,” Zell said in a CNBC interview. “Had we allowed the market to clear without trying to stop reality…we would have a healthy housing market today.” Since the financial crisis began in 2008, President Barack Obama has continually tried to regulate and stimulate the problem away. Most prominently, the administration implemented the Home Affordable Modification Program, theoretically aimed at helping as many as four million distressed homeowners refinance their mortgages at affordable terms. However, the program has reached only about one-fourth its original goal. Then, in his state of the union address, Obama pledged to expand the efforts to include even those buyers whose mortgages are not owned by government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. “It’s putting off facing up to reality,” Zell said in describing the efforts to halt foreclosures. “The longer we avoid clearing the longer we’re going to be living with this problem.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin February 7, 2012

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

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Banks ramping up short sales

Banks, accelerating efforts to move troubled mortgages off their books, are offering as much as $35,000 or more in cash to delinquent homeowners to sell their properties for less than they owe.  Banks are nudging potential sellers by pre-approving deals, streamlining the closing process, forgoing their right to pursue unpaid debt and in some cases providing large cash incentives, said Bill Fricke, senior credit officer for Moody’s Investors Service in New York.  Losses for lenders are about 15% lower on the sales than on foreclosures, which can take years to complete while taxes and legal, maintenance and other costs accumulate, according to Moody’s. The deals accounted for 33% of financially distressed transactions in November, up from 24% a year earlier, said CoreLogic Inc., a Santa Ana, California-based real estate information company. A mountain of pending repossessions is holding back a recovery in the housing market, where prices have fallen for six straight years, and damping economic growth. Owners of more than 14 million homes are in foreclosure, behind on their mortgages or owe more than their properties are worth, said RealtyTrac Inc., a property-data company in Irvine, California.

Short sales represented 9% of all US residential transactions in November, the most recent month for which data is available, up from 2% in January 2008, according to Corelogic. Bank-owned foreclosures and short sales sold at a discount of 34% to non-distressed properties in the third quarter, according to RealtyTrac.  As lenders shift their focus to sales, they are finding that some borrowers would rather risk repossession while they wait for a loan modification, according to Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade journal. In a loan modification, the monthly payment, and sometimes principal, is reduced to help prevent seizure. Homeowners facing foreclosure may live rent-free for years before they are forced out.  “That’s why the banks have got to pay the big bucks,” Cecala said. “The real question is why is the bribe so big? Is that what it takes to get somebody out of their home?”

Obama returning money, better late than never…

Two American brothers of a Mexican casino magnate who fled drug and fraud charges in the United States and has been seeking a pardon enabling him to return have emerged as major fund-raisers and donors for President Obama’s re-election campaign.  The casino owner, Juan Jose Rojas Cardona, known as Pepe, jumped bail in Iowa in 1994 and disappeared, and has since been linked to violence and corruption in Mexico. A State Department cable in 2009 said he was suspected of orchestrating the assassination of a business rival and making illegal campaign donations to Mexican officials.  As recently as January of last year, one of Cardona’s brothers in Chicago, Carlos Rojas Cardona, arranged for the former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party to seek a pardon from the governor for Pepe Cardona, according to prosecutors in that state.  Last fall, Carlos Cardona and another brother in Chicago, Alberto Rojas Cardona, began raising money for the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee. The Cardona brothers, who have no prior history of political giving, appeared seemingly out of nowhere in the world of Democratic fund-raising, Democratic activists said.

The money Alberto Cardona raised put him in the upper tiers of fund-raisers known as bundlers, according to a list released last month by the campaign. He and Carlos Cardona each gave the maximum $30,800 to the Democratic National Committee, and a lesser amount to a state victory fund. A sister, Leticia Rojas Cardona of Tennessee, donated $13,000 to the national committee, and another relative in Illinois gave $12,600, records show. There is no record of Pepe Cardona making a donation.  Although the two brothers live and work in Chicago, they maintain ties to Pepe Cardona in Mexico. Alberto Cardona operates an advertising agency in Mexico that has worked for political candidates backed by his brother, according to public records and Mexican news reports. Public records also show that the domain name for the Web site of a restaurant Pepe Cardona owns is registered to Alberto Cardona.  When The New York Times asked the Obama campaign early yesterday about the Cardonas, officials said they were unaware of the brother in Mexico. Later in the day, the campaign said it was refunding the money raised by the family, which totaled more than $200,000.

Olick – 40 states sign on to robo-deal

“After more than a year of negotiations, attorneys general from more than 40 states signed on to a proposed settlement agreement with five of the nation’s largest mortgage servicers over ‘robo-signing’ foreclosure processing abuses, according to the lead negotiator, Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller.  ‘This enables us to move forward into the very final stages of remaining work. Federal and state officials, as well as representatives from the banks, continue to address matters that they must complete before finalizing any settlement,’ Miller said in a statement released late Monday.  The deal with Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Ally Financial will reportedly total $25 billion. Some $17 billion of that would go toward writing down mortgage principal for an estimated 850,000 troubled borrowers, $3 billion could go toward restitution payments of $1,500 each to borrowers who lost their homes to foreclosure, and the rest could go to state funds for foreclosure relief, according to reports and estimates by Inside Mortgage Finance.  The total could be less, however, if California does not sign on. As of late Monday, officials there said Attorney General Kamala Harris had not agreed to the proposal.

New York did not sign on to the deal either, according to sources in Attorney General Eric Schneiderman’s office. Schneiderman had said he would not sign, but reports earlier in the week suggested he was reconsidering, given his new roll as co-chair of a Justice Department task force to investigate mortgage-related abuses.  Attorneys general from Delaware and Nevada also have reportedly not agreed to the deal. Despite the Feb. 6 deadline, states can still sign on and the expectation is that more will.  So-called robo-signing, where thousands of foreclosure documents are signed by one employee without proper verification, came to light in the fall of 2010. Miller formed the coalition of attorneys general to investigate major bank servicers in October 2010. Allegations of forgery and abuse in the documentation process ground foreclosures nearly to a halt for much of 2011, as servicers reviewed and changed the way they process foreclosure documents. They are just now ramping up again in states where foreclosures are not required to go before a judge, or non-judicial states. In judicial states, foreclosures can now take up to three years.  Miller’s office would give no details as to the agreement, or the states that committed to it.”

After pipeline rebuke, Canada turns to Asia

Speaking ahead of Canada’s most high-powered trade mission to Beijing for almost 15 years, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said that Canada must focus on markets that are growing, regardless of the fate of the Keystone XL pipeline, which is proposed to carry crude from the Alberta oil sands to Texas refineries.  The US State Department blocked Keystone last month, saying they didn’t have time for a thorough environmental review.  Harper told Reuters in an interview: “I think we need to be clear. As much as I want to see that Keystone project proceed, I think this incident … underscore(s) the fact that it is in this country’s national interest to be able to sell products beyond the United States.  And I don’t think a reversal of an American decision can change that fundamental reality. So I think it is absolutely essential that we find ways of being able to sell our products to the biggest growing markets in the world, and those are in Asia.”

Canada — the largest supplier of energy to the United States — was profoundly disappointed by Washington’s decision to veto TransCanada’s Keystone project. The United States — which is by far Canada’s largest trading partner — is unlikely to look at it again until after the election.  At 170 billion barrels, Canada’s oil sands are the third-largest crude deposit in the world, and Canadian exports to bigger markets will be a focal point of Harper’s meetings in China, where he will be accompanied by five cabinet ministers and the heads of major corporations seeking business.  China has already made clear it would like to import Canadian oil to help power its rapidly expanding economy.  It’s not clear to most people why the Obama government would rather import oil from the Middle East than from its own backyard.

MBA – Q4 2011 commercial/multifamily up 13% from 2010, but…

Commercial/multifamily originations during the fourth quarter of 2011 were up 13% over the fourth quarter of 2010, but fell 7% from the third quarter of 2011, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations.  “MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Origination Index hit record levels for life insurance companies in the second and third quarters of 2011,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “In the fourth quarter, multifamily originations for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac hit a new all-time high. While the CMBS market continued to be held back by broader capital markets uncertainty during the past year, others – like the GSEs, life companies and many bank portfolios – increased their appetite for commercial and multifamily loans.”  The 13% overall increase in commercial/multifamily lending activity over the fourth quarter of 2010 was driven by increases in originations for industrial and multifamily property types. The increase included a 43% increase in loans for industrial properties, a 31% increase in loans for multifamily properties, an 8% decrease in loans for retail properties, a 24% decrease in loans for health care properties, a 29% decrease in office property loans and a 44% decrease in hotel property loans.

Among investor types, loans for commercial bank portfolios increased by 122% compared to last year’s fourth quarter. There was also a 17% increase in loans for Government Sponsored Enterprises (or GSEs – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), a 13% decrease in loans for life insurance companies and a 50% decrease in loans for conduits for CMBS.  Fourth quarter 2011 commercial and multifamily mortgage originations were 7% lower than originations in the third quarter of 2011. Compared to the third quarter, fourth quarter originations for hotel properties saw a 52% decrease. There was a 39% decrease for office properties, a 24% decrease for retail properties, a 29% increase for multifamily properties, a 51% increase for industrial properties, and a 153% increase for health care properties.  Among investor types, between the third and fourth quarters of 2011, loans for conduits for CMBS saw a decrease in loan volume of 26%, loans for life insurance companies saw a decrease in loan volume of 23%, originations for commercial bank portfolios decreased 16% and loans for GSEs increased by 34%.

Greek problems escalate

Greek party leaders face crunch talks on Tuesday to secure a new international bailout and avoid a chaotic debt default, caught between European Union (EU) demands that they accept painful reforms now and a national strike against more austerity.  Prime Minister Lucas Papademos negotiated through most of the night with Greece’s European Union and IMF lenders, ending at 4 a.m. (0200 GMT) when the 24-hour strike was about to begin, closing ports and tourist sites and disrupting public transport.  Papademos, a technocrat parachuted in to lead the Greek government late last year, must persuade leaders of the three parties in his coalition government to accept the EU/IMF conditions for the 130-billion-euro ($170-billion) rescue.  An official said the government was preparing a text to put to the leaders for their approval, suggesting some movement in the process.

With Greece’s future in the euro zone in question, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said time was of the essence and there are growing signs that euro zone officials have lost patience.  They say the full package must be agreed with Greece and approved by the euro zone, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund before February 15.  This is to allow time for complex legal procedures involved in a bond swap deal – under which the value of private investors’ holdings of Greek debt will be cut radically in value – so Athens can get rescue funds before March 20 when it has to meet heavy debt repayments or suffer a chaotic default.

Better inventory levels, fragile prices

Home prices and sales remained fragile in January even as housing inventory levels and foreclosure starts improved during the same month, the Obama administration said in its latest Housing Scorecard Report.  Inventories of existing homes for sale declined from 3.2 million in the second quarter of 2011 to 2.4 million in the fourth quarter, according to data from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Treasury.  Overall, housing results were a mixed bag, the scorecard said. Inventory levels improved in the last two quarters while the number of housing units held off market fell from 3.9 million in the first quarter to 3.6 million in 4Q, the scorecard said. Foreclosure starts also fell in December, suggesting some signs of improvement.

Still, home prices are weak and foreclosure completions edged higher.  Home prices hit $138,500 on average for November 2011, compared to $140,300 in October 2011, according to Case-Shiller data cited in the report. New home sales hit 25,600 in December 2011, down from 27,600 a year ago. Meanwhile, the number of existing home sales hit 384,200 in December 2011, up from 370,800 in the year-ago period. First-time homebuyer numbers grew to 204,900 in December 2011, up from 196,000 in November 2011, according to the scorecard.  Foreclosure starts fell to 58,300 in December 2011, from 71,700 in November 2011. Foreclosure completions declined during the same period hit 61,800 in December 2011, up from 56,100 in the month before that.  While mortgage originations for the purchase of new homes declined to 431,500 from 498,000 in the year-ago period, but refinance originations rose to 1.3 million in 4Q from 950,000 during 3Q. Mortgage delinquency rates were mostly falling, dropping to 4.4% in December from 4.7% in the year-ago period.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin February 3, 2012

Forward this e-mail to your friends!
Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

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************************************************************

Home prices declined almost 5% in 2011

Home prices decreased 4.7% in 2011 compared to the year before, marking the fifth consecutive year-end decrease in the CoreLogic home price index. Excluding distressed sales, home prices decreased 0.9% last year, which CoreLogic said gives an indication “of the impact of distressed sales on home prices in 2011.” Home sales last year also show month-over-month declines. December showed the fifth consecutive monthly decline with a drop of 1.4%, but rose 0.2% when distressed sales were removed from the equation.

The December decline followed a much larger drop of 4.3% in November, compared to November 2010. “While overall prices declined by almost 5% in 2011, nondistressed prices showed only a small decrease. Until distressed sales in the market recede, we will see continued downward pressure on prices,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. While national statistics may be bleak, a few states posted increases in the price of homes last year. Montana came in first with 4.4% appreciation with distressed sales included, followed by Vermont (+4%), South Dakota (+3.1%), Nebraska (+2.5%) and New York (+1.7%). Illinois had the biggest 2011 decline in prices, 11.3%, followed by Nevada at 10.6%. Nevada’s peak-to-current decrease stands at 60% (including distressed homes), compared with a national decrease of 33.7%.

Employment up

The pace of job creation surged in January, with the US economy generating 243,000 new positions while the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%, according to government data released today. Both numbers were far better than consensus, which expected a growth of 150,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 8.5%. The overall work week remained unchanged at 34.5 hours while wages rose an average of four cents an hour to $23.29. The closely watched labor-force participation number, which can skew the unemployment rate, fell to 63.7%, the lowest since May 1983. The number of those working part-time for economic reasons rose 1.2%. Job gains have been concentrated primarily in the service sector, particularly in retail and the food and beverage industries. Warehousing, manufacturing, mining and health care also have participated. True to form, services were responsible for 162,000 of the January swell, with manufacturing payrolls growing 50,000. Government cuts subtracted 14,000 from the total. The total number of unemployed fell below 13 million for the first time since February 2009, while the total amount of employed Americans rose to 141.6 million, an increase of 847,000 from December. The unemployment rate was last this low in February 2009. The so-called real unemployment rate, which measures discouraged workers as well and is referred to as the U-6, nudged lower to 15.1%.

Long-term unemployment, though, remains a problem, with the duration dropping from a near-record 40.8 weeks to 40.1 weeks. Also, the level of discouraged workers surged, rising 7% to its highest level since December 2010. Job growth remains one of the two missing pieces of the recovery puzzle, even though the rate has been on a steady trek lower. In December, the economy created 203,000 jobs and the unemployment rate slipped to 8.5%, well off its 10.1% cycle peak. The monthly jobs report generally draws considerable trader reaction, which as of late has been all negative.

Olick – rent vs own riles government policy

“Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants under government conservatorship, together owned 182,212 foreclosed properties as of the end of September. While they aggressively market and sell these homes to investors and owner-occupants alike, the numbers are still too high; these number could go far higher, as foreclosures previously stalled by paperwork issues come back into process. That’s why the federal regulator overseeing the two is launching a bulk sale program, offering investors the chance to buy foreclosed properties at a discount, as long as those investors turn the properties into viable rentals for a specified number of years. ‘This rental period could provide relief for local housing markets that continue to be depressed by the volume of foreclosed properties, and provide additional rental options to certain markets,’ according to a release from the regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

The FHFA launched the initial phase of pre-qualification. Investors must prove they have ‘(a) the financial wherewithal to acquire the assets; (b) sufficient experience and knowledge in financial and business matters to analyze and bear the risks of the investment opportunity; and (c) agreement to keep certain information about the REO [Real Estate Owned, i.e. bank owned] and related matters confidential.’ That last part is to keep the prices competitive as the market starts to improve. Giving investors the opportunity to help clear the massive amount of distress in the housing market is crucial. The inventory of foreclosed properties is large, getting larger, and making it impossible for the overall market to achieve price stability. Witness a report today from CoreLogic which shows that home prices in December fell 4.7% year-over-year including sales of distressed properties. Excluding those properties, home prices fell less than one%.

Some, however, think the program is a negative: ‘People are brainwashed to think foreclosures are a bad thing for the housing market. Perhaps four years ago when a million loans all went into default and Foreclosure at the same time but not today. Today, 1st timers and investors — with an insatiable appetite for foreclosures, REO resales, and short sales — are the bedrock of this housing market.’ – Mark Hanson, Mortgage Analyst

‘Foreclosed homes are already meeting strong demand from investors when they come to market. We think these buyers are willing to pay a relatively full price, as they know the specific locations, and a large number of buyers have the ability to bid on the individual homes (doesn’t require significant capital)… Additionally, it will be difficult/expensive for investors to scale up operations given the broad geographic dispersion of properties vs. more traditional rental units, potentially limiting participation.’ – Dan Oppenheim, Credit-Suisse

Oppenheim also asks a valid question as to why the government would offer discounts to large investors buying in bulk, but not to individual investors buying perhaps a single property. There are plenty of Americans out there salivating over incredibly low-priced homes; rental income could be as much of a boon to them as perhaps a tax cut or a refinance. It was interesting yesterday, during his speech touting a proposed new government mortgage refinance program, President Obama, caught up in the moment, exclaimed, ‘No more renting!’ Putting aside the public relations blunder that was, given the fact that the FHFA had announced its REO to rent program not two hours before, it just drove home the conflict our government has between what it thinks Americans want to hear and what our economic reality dictates.

A few simple facts: There is not enough buyer demand to meet the number of homes for sale. A huge number of the homes for sale are empty, foreclosed properties. Too many Americans either cannot afford to buy a home or do not have the credit necessary to finance a home. Too many Americans cannot afford to sell their current homes in order to move or step up to a larger home. Rental demand is therefore strong and getting stronger. While homeownership may be a tenet of the ‘American Dream,’ renting is today’s actuality for a growing number of Americans. Whether it is large investor bulk programs or single investor incentives, adding to rental supply, thereby lowering rents, while at the same time clearing the market of foreclosed properties is a win. It may not be as politically palatable as offering ‘responsible’ borrowers a veiled tax credit in the form of a mortgage refinance, but it is good medicine for what ails housing.”

Pension threat for market investors

It’s no secret that the financial crisis and resulting malaise has taken its toll on bank stocks, commodities and Treasury yields. But it may be have triggered another ripple – one that has gone somewhat unnoticed. Pension funds have become seriously underfunded. According to a recent report from Credit Suisse some of the nation’s largest companies owe their pensions more than 25% of their market cap (after taxes). Although the problem is complex, at its core is simple math. Many firms forecast returns of 8% annually, and that just hasn’t happened. This developing situation is potentially market moving because it could require companies to make larger contributions – much larger. And if contributions ‘do’ go up, the money will have to come from someplace on the balance sheet.

“A pension accounting change at UPS will result in $527 million after tax charge in 2011,” says Joe Terranova. “And Sunoco said they have to contribute $80 million into their pension funds.” In other words, the need to fund pensions could drag down profits and, in turn, share price. In fact, the pension liability at AK Steel was cited by BofA as a reason behind their recent decision to downgrade the stock to ‘Underperform’ from ‘Neutral.” “I think in 2012 it will be a recurring issue,” Terranova says. John Ehrhardt of Milliman confirms the thesis. He tells us that investors should expect record numbers of earnings charges in 2012. “Record low interest rates result in historically high liabilities and the only remaining lever may be employer contributions.” And according to Ehrhardt this may be just the tip of the iceberg. “These companies are going to need 20-30% returns to fill the kinds of gaps we’re talking about.”

WSJ – Ally financial swings to loss

Ally Financial Inc., the US government-owned auto lender, swung to a $250 million net loss in the fourth quarter after taking a charge for regulatory penalties stemming from foreclosure matters. The Detroit-based lender, which provides financing for General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC dealers and customers, continued to make money from its auto-lending operations, but the results were weighed down again by its mortgage unit, which is saddled with lawsuits over foreclosures and soured mortgage investments. The loss compares to a year-ago profit of $79 million. It had a core pretax loss, which reflects results from continuing operations before taxes and other expenses, of $24 million, down from $526 million. Excluding a $270 million foreclosure-related charge, core pretax income would have been $246 million.

“One of our key priorities remains aggressively addressing the risks related to the mortgage business and taking steps to protect the key franchises at Ally,” Michael Carpenter, the company’s chief executive, said in a statement. “This will be critical to advance plans to repay the US taxpayer.” Ally, which was formerly owned by GM, is one of at least five major mortgage servicers in discussions with state and federal regulators over a potential settlement of “robo-signing” and other alleged foreclosure offenses. Regulators are close to finalizing a deal worth as much as $25 billion that could also include Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. On Tuesday, Ally said it would record the $270 million charge in the fourth quarter for penalties from regulators and other government agencies related to foreclosure issues.

The charge was mainly related to its mortgage subsidiary, Residential Capital, which has been the subject of bankruptcy speculation for several months. The charge caused a temporary decline in ResCap’s tangible net worth below $250 million, breaching debt covenants of some of its lenders, Ally said. Ally has been trying to scale back its mortgage operations as it focuses on building up its auto business and online retail bank. In November, the company said it would significantly curtail its correspondent lending operations, which comprise the bulk of its mortgage originations.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin January 31, 2012

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Washington state considers short sale protection

Banks could soon be barred from pursuing deficiency judgments against Washington state borrowers after a short sale. A Senate committee in the Washington State Legislature will hold a hearing over H.B. 2718, which states that if a bank “writes off debt from the short sale, they can’t then subsequently collect this debt from the seller. The bill was modeled after similar action passed in Oregon last summer. The bill if passed does not require the lender to accept a short sale offer. It would go into effect with 90 days of being passed. According to a Washington Realtors alert put out late last week, a borrower would report the write off to the Internal Revenue Service and take a tax deduction for the loss. This same amount is also counted as taxable income for the seller. “Providing certainty and consumer protections for short sale sellers is critical in the current real estate market,” the trade group said. “Successful short sales often prevent foreclosures that would harm consumers, tax revenue and economic recovery.” After the Oregon bill took effect in June, REO numbers became choppy and then began to fall at the end of the year. In September, repossessed homes totaled 1,420, according to RealtyTrac. That number increased to 2,057 the following month then slid to 936 in November and 874 in December. Some of that could be due to seasonal trends. Most lenders put repossessions on hold during the holiday season, but the December total was down 29% from the same month one year earlier.

S&P warns of rate cuts over health costs
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s warned it may downgrade “a number of highly rated” Group of 20 countries from 2015 if their governments fail to enact reforms to curb rising healthcare spending and other costs related to aging populations. Developed nations in Europe, as well as Japan and the United States, are likely to suffer the largest deterioration in their public finances in the next four decades as more elderly strain social safety nets, S&P said in a report. “Steadily rising healthcare spending will pull heavily on public purse strings in the coming decades,” S&P analyst Marko Mrsnik wrote in the report. “If governments do not change their social protection systems, they will likely become unsustainable.” If no reforms are adopted, healthcare-related credit downgrades would likely start within three years, eventually leading to an increase in the number of junk-rated countries as of 2020, the study showed.

Olick – US Treasury forcing principal forgiveness

“Late Friday the US Treasury Department announced a major expansion of its Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). The three-year-old program has been largely deemed unsuccessful, as it has provided just about 750,000 borrowers with permanent loan modifications. The initial expectation from government officials was that it would help three to four million borrowers. ‘Clearly the initial program erred on the side of making sure taxpayers were protected, but it didn’t do enough to help the overall economy,’ said Michael Barr, former Asst. Treasury Secretary for Financial Institutions and one of HAMP’s original architects. Now taxpayers will pony up the cash, as Treasury is tripling the financial incentives to lenders and opening the program up to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and investors in rental properties. The money would come out of TARP funds, i.e. from the taxpayers. We still don’t know if Fannie and Freddie will participate, since their conservator, the FHFA’s Ed DeMarco, has been actively fighting principal write down for years. A week ago he sent a letter to members of congress explaining the math behind his argument.

But the Treasury may be forcing DeMarco’s hand. He claimed that writing down mortgage principal would cost $4 billion more than the modifications that Fannie and Freddie are doing now. Those involve interest rate reduction and principal forbearance. The newly expanded HAMP, however, with its triple- sized cash incentives, would shore up that $4 billion hole. Funny how he mentioned that hole on Monday, and the Treasury announced the new plan Friday. ‘If he [DeMarco] doesn’t get to yes, then he has no political leg to stand on,’ says FBR’s Ed Mills, who estimates the enhanced program could add one million borrowers to its ranks. Mills says a ‘no’ from DeMarco would enable the Obama Administration to replace him, which it tried to do once before, only to be blocked by members of Congress. ‘It would be an appropriate response for him to do it,’ says Barr of DeMarco. ‘I do think they should participate.’ I asked Barr why the Treasury waited three years to use the TARP funds for principal reduction. The obvious answer is that this is presidential election year, and the housing market is still floundering, but Barr claims the Treasury was just being careful. ‘It’s a use of taxpayer funds, and you want to make sure you’re not providing more of an incentive than is required,’ he said. ‘One person’s successful program is another person’s bailout.’”

Treasury department stirs the pot

The Treasury Department is investigating a report that Freddie Mac, the mortgage giant, bet against homeowners’ ability to refinance their loans even as it was making it more difficult for them to do so, Jay Carney, the White House spokesman, said yesterday. ProPublica and National Public Radio reported that Freddie Mac, which maintained slightly tighter restrictions than Fannie on homeowners’ eligibility to refinance, had a multibillion-dollar investment whose value hinged on borrowers continuing to pay higher interest rates. Beginning in 2010, Freddie bought several billion dollars’ worth of “inverse floater” securities — essentially the interest-paying portion of a bundle of mortgages — for its investment portfolio while selling the far less risky principal portion. Fannie and Freddie are supposed to be decreasing the size of their investment portfolios. There is no evidence that Freddie tailored its refinancing standards to its investing strategy, but “inverse floaters” make less money if the loans they cover refinance to a lower interest rate. Freddie issued a statement yesterday defending its commitment to helping homeowners. “Freddie Mac is actively supporting efforts for borrowers to realize the benefits of refinancing their mortgages to lower rates,” it said. The company said refinancing accounted for 78% of its loan purchases in 2011.

HAMP 2.0
The expansion of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) by the Treasury Department is expected to benefit special mortgage servicers, mortgage insurers and nonagency mortgage-backed securities holders, while having no material effect on agency MBS, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said yesterday. Previously, if a borrower’s first-lien monthly mortgage payment was lower than 31% of income, the borrower was ineligible for HAMP. Factoring other debts to the evaluation will expand the pool of borrowers who can now qualify for HAMP. Investors also were given new incentives for accepting principal write-downs, with the financial benefits for such an action increasing from a range of 6 to 21 cents on the dollar to 18 to 63 cents. The Obama administration also extended the HAMP program deadline through December 2013. “We believe that the more flexible debt-to-income ratio and the inclusion of some investor properties will have a positive impact on modification activity,” KBW analysts said in its research note. “The impact of the increased principal reduction incentives remains unclear.

While it should help the nonagency sector, the impact would be far greater if there was GSE participation. The response from FHFA on Friday afternoon suggests that the GSEs might not participate,” according to KBW analysts. The research firm expects the changes to have “no material impact on agency MBS prepayment speeds.” However, special servicers in the mortgage industry are expected to benefit from the modifications. Ocwen Financial Corp. earned $28.3 million in HAMP incentive fees in the first nine months of 2011, and KBW believes other firms also will benefit from an expanded HAMP program. Barclays Capital analysts also see the changes as having no significant impact on agency MBS. “The reason is that the vast majority of debt forgiveness will be on delinquent loans, which are typically already bought out of the agency MBS trust,” Barclays wrote. “The only effect might be from the moral hazard side: if underwater borrowers in agency MBS pools start going delinquent on purpose to qualify for debt forgiveness, speeds will obviously rise. But we think this is unlikely to have a significant effect on agency speeds.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com