real estate investing

WSJ – foreclosures fall, but…

First-quarter foreclosures declined 16% from a year earlier, falling to their lowest quarterly total since 2007, according to the latest report from market researcher RealtyTrac.  The number of foreclosure filings in the first quarter fell 2% sequentially. Default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions were reported on 572,928 US properties in the latest quarter, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2007, when 527,740 properties with foreclosure filings were reported. One in every 230 US housing units had a foreclosure filing during the quarter.  In March, there were 198,853 US properties in varying stages of foreclosure, down 17% from a year earlier and 4% from the prior month.  RealtyTrac reported the decline in foreclosure activity is primarily due to decreasing activity in states that use the nonjudicial foreclosure process. Foreclosure filings in these 24 states and the District of Columbia, which represented more than half of the nation’s total during the quarter, fell 28% on the year. States that primarily use the judicial foreclosure process saw a 10% year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity in the first quarter.

RealtyTrac Chief Executive Brandon Moore warned that the low foreclosure numbers in the latest period do not indicate that the massive amount of distressed properties built up over the past few years has evaporated.  “There are hairline cracks in the dam, evident in the sizable foreclosure activity increases in judicial foreclosure states over the past several months, along with an increase in foreclosure starts in many judicial and non-judicial states in March,” Moore said in a statement. “The dam may not burst in the next 30 to 45 days, but it will eventually burst, and everyone downstream should be prepared for that to happen–both in terms of new foreclosure activity and new short sale activity.”  Completing the foreclosure process took an average of 370 days in the first quarter, up from 348 days in the prior quarter. However, RealtyTrac noted the average foreclosure timeline fell in bellwether states like California, Colorado, Utah, Massachusetts and Nevada.

Nevada’s foreclosure activity fell 62% on the year and 26% from the prior quarter, but the state again posted the nation’s highest foreclosure rate. In the latest period, one in every 95 Nevada housing units received a foreclosure filing.  California had the second highest rate, though the state’s default activity also decreased on a quarterly and annual basis. One in every 103 California housing units had a foreclosure filing in the first quarter. The state also had the highest number of properties with foreclosure filings.  Arizona had the third highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 106 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.

Jobless claims up

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, defying economists’ expectations for a drop to 355,000.  The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, rose 4,250 to 368,500.  Some economists blamed the Easter holidays for the spike in claims and expected applications to trend lower in coming weeks.  “It’s very difficult to know the extent to which that’s driven by seasonal effects from Easter or not,” said Eric Green, chief economist at TD Securities in New York.  The claims data comes in the wake of Friday’s disappointing employment report for March, which showed the economy created 120,000 new jobs, the smallest amount since October.  Despite the rise in claims last week, both first-time applications for unemployment aid and the four-week average held below the 400,000 mark, implying steady job gains.

Olick – higher prices coming?

“A response to a recent RealtyCheck blog on home prices included the following:  ‘Someone needs to explain to Ms. Olick what these ‘price declines’ really represent because they most assuredly do not measure how much home values have changed. They simply measure the statistical midpoint for all home sales. So in an economy where people are buying smaller homes that number moves down. That doesn’t mean that every house lost that % value.’  Thanks, but no explanation necessary, as I believe I covered that a while back. But I would like to elaborate a bit on this theme, as we’re starting to see some changes mortgage applications; specifically the average loan amount is rising, which might suggest a turnaround in pricing, due to a change in the type of homes being bought.  The average size of a mortgage purchase application increased 9% from December to the end of March, from $214,500 to $233,300 in March, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘That points to underlying improvement in borrowers’ appetite for mortgage credit,’ notes Paul Diggle of Capital Economics. 

Just yesterday analysts at Goldman Sachs said both Toll Brothers and Pulte Homes should benefit from more positive sentiment among high end buyers. Their survey showed 63% of respondents expect home prices to be either stable or rise, but 83% of respondents with an annual income above $120,000 expect home prices to be either stable or rise. That’s up from 75% six months ago.  If in fact the higher end buyers start getting back into the market, or at least the move-up buyers, that will shift the volume to a higher price range and consequently the median price, which gets all that national attention. 72% of home sales in February were of homes priced less than $250,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.  Of course, as I always say, all real estate is local, as are all home prices, and let us not forget that.”

Producer prices flat

US producer prices were unchanged last month after advancing 0.4% in February.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices at farms, factories and refineries to rise 0.3%.  Wholesale prices excluding volatile food and energy costs rose 0.3% after February’s 0.2% gain.  That was a touch above economists’ expectations for a 0.2% advance and marked the fifth successive month of increases in core PPI.  Over one-third of the rise in core PPI was attributed to prices for light motor trucks. Higher costs for passenger cars, soaps and detergents also contributed to the advance in core PPI.  However, manufacturers have limited scope to pass on these increased costs to consumers given the still considerable slack in the economy.  Overall producer prices were held back by a 2.0% fall in gasoline, the largest decline since October, after a 4.3% jump in February. That offset a 0.2% rise in food prices, which halted three straight months of declines.  However, gasoline prices rose 7.5%, when seasonal factors are excluded.  In the 12 months to March, wholesale prices increased 2.8%, the smallest increase since June 2010, after advancing 3.3% in February.  Outside food and energy, producer prices were pushed up by light motor trucks prices, which rebounded 0.7% after falling 0.4% in February. Passenger car prices rose 0.8% after edging up 0.1% the prior month.  The increases likely reflected strong demand for automobiles.  In the 12 months to March, core producer prices increased 2.9% after rising 3.0% the previous month.

Loan demand improves

Loan demand in the banking industry, as well as residential and commercial real estate activity, improved in most Federal Reserve districts across the US, according to the latest Beige Book from the Fed.  The survey, which develops a consensus on economic activity by interviewing industry contacts in every Federal Reserve district, reported that the US economy continued to grow at a modest pace from mid-February to late March.  Residential real estate activity also improved in most districts, with Cleveland and San Francisco remaining outliers with lackluster real estate activity.  Nationwide construction of multifamily housing units grew in most Fed districts, with most of the construction centered around apartments and senior housing.  Meanwhile, home prices continued to fall in key areas like Boston, New York and Minneapolis. Prices remained flat in San Francisco.  Mild winter weather during the first part of the year delivered a slight boost in real estate activity in the areas of Boston, Philadelphia and Kansas City. 

Conditions in the financial services and banking industry remained “stable” as demand for lending increased modestly. While lending remained unchanged in St. Louis, it expanded in New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco.  “In general, the demand for commercial and industrial loans remained steady, while several districts reported an increase in commercial real estate lending activity,” the Beige Book said.  “The Philadelphia and Cleveland districts reported increased lending for multifamily housing and health care, and contacts in Richmond cited increased lending to small business to finance inventory and capital expenditures.”  Overall, residential real estate showed signs of modest improvement and multifamily housing construction continued to grow. On the banking side, credit quality increased and financial firms noted improvement in loan demand.

BOA streamlining short sales process

Bank of America (BOA) says it’s making changes to its short-sale procedures that will shorten decision times on short sale offers to 20 days, down from 45 days or longer.  The new task flow in BOA’s short-sale management platform, Equator, will enable short-sale specialists to conduct tasks like document collection, valuations and underwriting simultaneously. When buyers walk, agents will have five days instead of 14 days to submit a backup offer.  Bank of America is requiring a new third-party authorization form for short sales initiated beginning April 14.  When the changes to Equator take effect Saturday, five documents will be required to process short sales initiated with an offer:

-  A purchase contract including buyer’s acknowledgment and disclosure.

-  HUD-1.

-  IRS Form 4506-T.

-  Bank of America short-sale addendum.

-  Bank of America third-party authorization form.

The Equator platform will be offline the night of Friday, April 13, and into early Saturday, April 14, to implement changes. Offer documents and supporting documents for all short sales submitted with an offer must be uploaded before Friday, April 13, or files may be declined.

Import prices up

Overall import prices rose 1.3% in March, the Labor Department said today. That was the biggest gain since April 2011.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected import prices to rise 0.8% last month. February’s data was revised to show a 0.1% decline instead of the previously reported 0.4% increase.  Stripping out petroleum, import prices increased 0.3% after falling 0.1% in February.  Higher costs for energy have fueled inflation in recent months but a still-weak jobs market has made it harder for businesses to raise other prices.  Data on Thursday is expected to show tame price pressures at a wholesale level, with producer prices seen rising 0.2% in March when stripping out food and energy.  But today’s report underscores the size of the price shock that is stinging Americans when they refuel their cars.  Last month, imported petroleum prices increased 4.3%, the biggest gain since April 2011.  Elsewhere, imported capital goods prices edged 0.2% higher after being flat in February. Imported motor vehicle prices climbed 0.3% after being unchanged in February.  The Labor Department report also showed export prices rose 0.8% last month, above analysts’ expectations for a 0.4% gain. Export prices increased 0.4% in February.

MBA – mortgage applications down

Mortgage applications decreased 2.4% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 6, 2012.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2.1% compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index decreased 3.1% from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.5% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1% compared with the previous week and was 5.5% higher than the same week one year ago.  There was no adjustment made for Good Friday.  The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 2.08%.  The four week moving average is up 2.19% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 3.45% for the Refinance Index.  The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased for the eighth consecutive week to 70.5% of total applications from 71.2% the previous week.  This is the lowest refinance share since July 29, 2011.  The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 5.5% of total applications from the previous week.

In March 2012, the share of applications for investment properties increased to 8.3% from 7.4% in February 2012.  However, the increase in investor share was driven by refinance applications for investment properties (which increased to 9.2% in March 2012 from 7.7% in February 2012), as the share of purchase applications for investment homes decreased over the month, from 6.1% in February 2012 to 5.7% in March 2012.  The investor share of purchase applications also decreased on a year over year basis, falling from 5.8% in March 2011 to its current level of 5.7% in March 2012.  While MBA tracks applications for second homes and investment properties separately, giving them the ability to distinguish between the two, the combined share of investment and second home applications for home purchase had the same directional components for the month of March 2012 – up on the whole and up for refinance applications last month, but down for home purchase activity.

Credit eases

Credit card lenders gave out 1.1 million new cards to borrowers with damaged credit in December, up 12.3% from the same month a year earlier, according to Equifax’s credit trends report released in March. These borrowers accounted for 23% of new auto loans in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from 17% in the same period of 2009, Experian, a credit scoring firm, said.  The banks are looking to make up the billions in fee income wiped out by regulations enacted after the financial crisis by focusing on two parts of their business — the high and the low ends — industry consultants say. Subprime borrowers typically pay high interest rates, up to 29%, and often rack up fees for late payments.  Some former banking regulators said they worried that this kind of lending, even in its early stages, signaled a potentially dangerous return to the same risky lending that helped fuel the credit crisis.  The lenders argue that they have learned their lesson and are distinguishing between chronic deadbeats and what some in the industry call “fallen angels,” those who had good payment histories before falling behind as the economy foundered.  Regulators with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which oversees the nation’s largest banks, said that as long as lenders adhered to strict underwriting standards and monitored risk, there was nothing inherently dangerous about extending credit to a wider swath of people.

Olick – debate over principal forgiveness

“The man at the center of the controversy over writing down mortgage principal on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans isn’t wavering. He may be reconsidering previous loss formulas, factoring in new government subsidies for principal write-down, but his opinion seems largely unchanged.  After beginning a speech this morning about all the so-called ‘Enterprises’ (Fannie and Freddie) have done to help millions of borrowers behind on their mortgage payments, and reminding listeners of his agency’s mandate to, ‘preserve and conserve the assets of the Enterprises,’ FHFA Acting Director Ed DeMarco took a left turn.  ‘There is another human element in this story that does not seem to receive much attention,’ DeMarco continued. ‘Clearly, many households got over-extended financially. Some accumulated debts they couldn’t afford when hours or wages were cut or jobs were lost. Others withdrew equity from their homes as house prices soared. Others bought houses at the peak of the market, often with little money down, perhaps in the belief house prices would continue to climb. Yet there are other Americans who did not do this thing.’ 

That last part really clinches what may eventually be his decision not to allow principal forgiveness, or to do it in an extremely narrow way. Yes, there are all kinds of formulas, and ‘net present value’ analyses that have been and continue to be run. There will be Enterprise gains offset by taxpayer losses, and there will be estimates of operational costs to implement a wide-ranging and necessarily transparent program. But in the end, less than one million borrowers would be helped, and for DeMarco, as for many others, it will come down to fairness and cheating.  ‘One factor that needs to be considered is the borrower incentive effects. That means, will some percentage of borrowers who are current on their loans, be encouraged to either claim a hardship or actually go delinquent to capture the benefits of principal forgiveness?’ asks DeMarco.  ‘This is a particular concern for the Enterprises because unlike other mortgage market participants that can pick and choose where principal forgiveness makes sense, the Enterprises must develop the program to be implemented by more than one thousand seller/servicers. In addition, the Enterprises will have to publicly announce this program and borrower awareness of the possibility of receiving a principal reduction modification will be heightened among Enterprise borrowers,’ he explains.

In other words, this opens the flood gates to cheating. The fact is that there are 11 million borrowers who currently owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth and yet the vast majority of them are still making monthly payments. Those who haven’t been paying have been delinquent, in some cases, for many years. The concern is that borrowers who are current on their loans might think it’s unfair that those who are not current are being rewarded and they are not. It would take a relatively small group of them strategically defaulting to offset the gains of any principal reduction program and turn it into a massive debacle.  ‘The far larger group of underwater borrowers who today have remained faithful to paying their mortgage obligations are the much greater contingent risk to housing markets and to taxpayers. Encouraging their continued success could have a greater impact on the ultimate recovery of housing markets and cost to the taxpayers than the debate over which modification approach offered to troubled borrowers is preferable,’ concludes DeMarco.  He is expected to announce a decision on principal reduction this month, but the analysts are already out:  ‘We see this as a strong political attack against principal reduction,’ says Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim partners.  The Obama administration is clearly pushing for it, with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner recently telling a Senate panel that there is a, ‘very strong economic case’ for principal write-down. He suggested DeMarco, ‘take another look at the math,’ which DeMarco is obviously doing. The trouble is, when it comes to today’s housing market and today’s borrowers, paying your mortgage, whatever it’s worth, is not always a simple equation.”

Oil to sink below $100?

Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index, said the charts suggest US futures may drop to $98 a barrel, and if that level is broken, momentum could accelerate taking the crude to as low as $87.  Oil prices contained below $100 would help alleviate the strain on the US consumer, offering some relief to the broader economy. A gallon of gasoline cost $3.94 at the pump last week, two cents higher than the previous week and 5.9% more expensive than a year earlier, MasterCard said in its weekly Spending Pulse report on Tuesday.  The catalyst for the move lower in oil prices may come later Wednesday when the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration releases weekly stockpiles data at 10:30 am ET.  The report is expected to show a 1.8 million barrels build in commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending April 6, driven by higher US imports of Saudi crude, according to analysts polled by Platts.

CoreLogic – April MarketPulse Report

CoreLogic today released its April CoreLogic MarketPulse report. The monthly economic publication provides insight into the current and future health of the US economic climate with particular focus on housing and mortgage metrics. Chief Economist Mark Fleming and Senior Economist Sam Khater authored the articles and commentary.  The April MarketPulse report:

-  Indicates “now is a good time to buy,” with housing affordability at its highest level ever (as of February 2012), and shows many of the key housing metrics are holding steady through the typically slow winter season.

-  Reports the single-family rental market is strong and vibrant with high and stable rents, low months’ supply and a healthy pace of signed rental leases. The report reveals what markets offer the best return for single-family rental investors. “The potential size of the rental market for REOs this year (and annually over the next few years) is over $100 billion dollars,” said Khater in the report.

-  Shows capitalization rates for single-family rental properties in 26 geographically diverse markets. Capitalization rates are the most common metric for determining the profitability of an investment property.

-  Provides a chart of the rent-to-mortgage ratio for Miami, Fla. The chart indicates the point in time when it became cheaper to buy than to rent, providing insight to investors buying and holding rental properties, as well as to new first-time home buyers.

For a complete copy of the April CoreLogic MarketPulse report, including a complete set of data and charts, visit http://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/MarketPulse_2012-April.pdf.

WSJ – report slams banks on maintenance

A consumer-advocate group said in a report Wednesday that a study of foreclosed properties found that banks have higher standards for properties they own in wealthy, predominantly white, neighborhoods than low-income ones, raising a new civil-rights challenge against the mortgage industry.  The report by the National Fair Housing Alliance examined more than 1,000 foreclosed properties in nine cities: Atlanta; Baltimore; Dallas; Dayton, Ohio; Miami; Oakland, Calif., Philadelphia; Phoenix and Washington, D.C.  “This report offers evidence that banks responsible for peddling unsustainable loans to communities of color and triggering our current foreclosure crisis are continuing to damage those communities by failing to properly maintain and market the properties they own,” Shanna L. Smith, the housing alliance’s chief executive, said in a statement. The group said it is planning legal action against two banks, which it didn’t name.  The group and four of its members scrutinized foreclosed properties for problems like broken windows, trash, water damage and unkempt lawns.  The report found that properties in minority neighborhoods were 42% more likely to have shoddy maintenance than those in majority-white neighborhoods. Trash and other debris were 34% more likely to be found in foreclosures in minority neighborhoods than in white ones.

Jobless claims down this week

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 357,000, the lowest level since April 2008, the Labor Department said today.  The prior week’s figure was revised up to 363,000 from the previously reported 359,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a claims reading of 355,000 for last week.  The four-week moving average for new claims, a measure of labor market trends, declined 4,250 to 361,750.  The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid fell 16,000 to 3.338 million in the week ended March 24, the lowest since August 2008.  A total of 7.05 million people were claiming unemployment benefits during the week ended March 17 under all programs, down 107,760 from the prior week.

WSJ – ownership gains appeal

Climbing rents for apartments are combining with a continued decline in home prices to push once-reluctant home buyers into finally taking the plunge, say economists and real-estate agents, helping what appears to be a good start to the housing industry’s all-important spring selling season.  Average apartment rents rose by 2.7% last year while the national vacancy rate dropped below 5% for the first time since 2001, according to a quarterly survey to be released Wednesday by Reis Inc., a real-estate research firm.  The broad and sustained growth of the apartment market contrasts sharply with an uneven and tentative housing recovery. During the first quarter, average apartment rents rose and vacancy rates fell in all 82 metropolitan areas tracked by Reis, when compared with a year ago.  The largest rent increases came in San Francisco and San Jose, Calif., which saw increases of 5.9% and 4.9%, respectively. Even boom-to-bust Las Vegas, which has struggled with falling rents in previous quarters, saw average rent rise 1.8% from a year earlier.  Such increases are one reason why analysts at Zelman & Associates believe 2012 will be the first year since 2005 when the share of apartment renters that moves out to buy a house increases from the previous year. “The equation of renting versus owning is becoming much more favorable for owning,” said Ivy Zelman, the firm’s chief executive. Unless the economy worsens, there is little sign that rent growth will slow until hundreds of thousands of new apartment units currently under construction hit the market over the next few years.

Easier to pay down debt

Timely repayments improved on all 11 of the consumer loan categories tracked by the American Bankers Association (ABA) in the final quarter of last year, the first time that has happened since 2004, according to the organization’s chief economist.  The ABA said delinquency rates still remain high as the economy slowly recovers but the fourth quarter showed a marked improvement from the prior quarter in consumers’ ability to make payments on auto loans, credit cards and other debts.  It does not, however, track delinquency rates for traditional mortgage payments.  The broad delinquency category that tracks eight types of loans fell to 2.49% from 2.59%.  Delinquencies on payments for credit cards provided by a bank fell to 3.17% from 3.25%.  The delinquency rate for home equity loans fell to 4.08% from 4.12%.

FHFA to decide on write downs in April

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) head Edward DeMarco said the agency will likely make a decision regarding mortgage principal forgiveness sometime in April.  DeMarco, in a speech Wednesday before the Boston Security Analysts Society, said the FHFA continues to evaluate added incentives from the Treasury Department to write down loan principal under the Home Affordable Modification Program.  The Treasury announced in January that it would triple those incentive payments for mortgage investors, and Freddie Mac CEO Charles “Ed” Haldeman signaled the change could push the government-sponsored enterprises to cut mortgage principal.  But DeMarco continued his wary stance toward write-downs Wednesday, and said principal forbearance “produces the same, lower monthly payment.” That’s the main reason to modify a loan, he said.  More than three in four “deeply underwater” borrowers on the GSEs’ books are current on their loans, DeMarco said.  “Indeed, we have found that payment reduction, not loan-to-value, is the key indicator of success in loan modification,” DeMarco said in prepared remarks. “If the borrower remains successful in this modified loan, this approach preserves for taxpayers an ultimate recovery on the debt.”

Others, including many House and Senate Democrats, want DeMarco to go forward with write-downs, while the less patient have called for his ouster.  Thirty senators, in a letter Wednesday, asked DeMarco to revise how the FHFA conducts its principal reduction analysis. The FHFA’s previous report, which said write-downs would cost the GSEs $100 billion, had “several critical flaws,” they said.  “We seek an accurate analysis, but not a particular result,” the senators said in the letter. “Conducting an accurate analysis of this issue is not only part of your responsibility as conservator to conserve taxpayer assets, but also part of your statutory responsibility to maximize assistance for homeowners to minimize foreclosures.”  Sen. Richard Shelby, R-Ala., who is the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, came out in defense of DeMarco, questioning Democrats’ own efforts.  “Democrats should stop blaming FHFA for their failure to craft bipartisan legislation to address the housing crisis,” Shelby said in an emailed statement. “FHFA has refinanced over 10 million mortgages since 2009. What have the Senate Democrats accomplished during that same time frame?”

There were 65,000 completed foreclosures last month, down from 71,000 in January and slightly lower than the 66,000 finished in February of last year, CoreLogic Inc. said.  January’s figures were revised up from an initially reported 69,000.  A home has completed the foreclosure process when it has been seized by the lender or sold.  The slow pace of foreclosures is one of the biggest challenges for the struggling housing market that has yet to recover from its collapse.  In the 12 months through February, 862,000 foreclosures were finished. About 3.4 million foreclosures have been completed since the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, the report said.  About 1.4 million homes, or 3.4% of all homes with a mortgage, were in foreclosure inventory as of February, down from 1.5 million, or 3.6% of homes, last year.

Though the pace of foreclosures slowed, the overall inventory fell because sales of properties seized by lenders rose last month, Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, said in a statement.  “With the spring buying season upon us, the inventory may decline further as the pace of distressed-asset sales rises along with the rest of the housing market,” said Fleming.  The share of homeowners that are more than 90 days behind on their mortgage payments edged up to 7.3% from 7.2% in January but was down from 7.8% a year ago.  The inventory of seized homes held by servicers grew faster in February than the pace of sales and the distressed clearing ratio rose to 0.73 from 0.66.  A higher ratio shows a faster rate of home sales compared to completed foreclosures.

Natural gas prices dropping

The collapse in natural gas prices to decade lows amid record supplies have changed the dynamic of the energy industry.  Natural gas is already displacing coal in power generation, driving coal’s share to the lowest level since the 1970s, and promises to drive it even lower. And there’s more talk now that it could replace some gasoline in transportation.  But for now, natural gas is being overproduced across the country, as companies extract shale gas in 32 states and off shore. In just a few short years, the shale gas industry has turned the US from a potential importer of natural gas to a potential major exporter.  This abundance of supply and an unusually warm winter combined to create a record amount of natural gas in storage for this time of year. The latest weekly inventory data is released today at 10:30 a.m. ET by the EIA.  “We are right now at 2.38 trillion cubic feet. It’s a record for this time of year, and it’s 55% above the five-year average,” said John Kilduff of Again Capital.  “April historically sees the start of natural gas injection, or the build in inventories, but this year it started in March,” Kilduff said. The injection period typically runs to Nov. 1, when gas starts to get drawn down for heating.

Housing close to bottom?

Yes, we’ve heard it before, but according to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, the US housing market is very close to a bottom and there are already signs its improvement is giving a boost to the overall economy.  “I believe we’re very close to the inflection point. People look at prices that are still coming down but all the other signs are flashing green,” Dimon said during a job fair in New York for hiring veterans.  Housing is more affordable and “the shadow inventory everyone talks about is lower today than it was 12 months ago. It will be a lot lower 12 months from now,” he said.  Distressed inventory “is actually coming down, not going up. Homes for sale are about half what they were four years ago. You could come up with a pretty bullish case. If the economy grows, housing gets better, quicker.”  He said the US economy is “getting stronger all the time. It’s broad-based, companies are in great shape…Consumers are in great shape.”

So are the banks — JPMorgan was one of those that passed the Federal Reserve’s latest round of stress tests. The bank was so pleased by this it jumped the gun and announced it was raising its dividend and buying back shares before the official release of the test results.  Dimon believes the threat of a double-dip recession is behind us.  “No one can forecast the economy with certainty,” Dimon said, “but most of us in business [have] got growth plans that have nothing to do with the actual state of the economy. We’re going to always open new branches,” do more marketing, hire more people and work to bring in more customers.

Survey says we’re worse off than before

A CNBC survey found that just 28% of Americans say they are better off now than they were four years. Thirty-seven% said they were better off before President George H.W. Bush lost his re-election bid in 1992 to Bill Clinton.  Fewer people deemed the economy in poor shape than was the case in the previous CNBC survey published in December.  Only 36% of the 836 people in CNBC’s poll conducted between March 19 to 22 said the economy would be better in the next year. By comparison, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted from Feb. 29 through March 3 found that 40% believe the economy will improve during the next year, a three-point increase in that poll from January.  Overall, respondents in the CNBC survey held a poor view of the economy — with worries about jobs, gasoline and housing prices, as well as the budget deficit, continuing to drag on confidence.

More than half (53%) in the All-America survey described the economy as poor, and 35% said fair. In addition, 52% of respondents say they are worse off than four years ago.  “These are troublesome numbers for the president,” adds Campbell, noting that the better/worse combination is the poorest of six presidential election cycles dating to 1992.  Only one in five suburban women voters felt better off, compared with 53% who felt worse off. The results were slightly better for independents (24% better, 57% worse), and blue-collar workers (28%/59%).

Olick – have refis run out?

“The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is up about a half a percentage point since the middle of February, when they hit a record low. Mortgage refinances, however, dropped 24% in the same period of time.  That’s a huge reaction to a small move from a record low.  ‘Rates have been there (3.75%) for so long that most everybody who could benefit from lower rates has applied,’ says mortgage analyst Mark Hanson. ‘Now, when rates pop up over 4%, it chokes off refi activity, which is sad. 5% rates in the US are now prohibitively high.’  Again, a little perspective here. Mortgage rates, spurred by government intervention in the market, of course, are still incredibly low. The problem is that the refinance business has changed fundamentally. This from analyst Barry Eisbruck:  ‘There used to be a product called cash out refinancing. Those quarterly refinancing numbers are amazing from 2003 vs. 2011. In 2003 you had 4.3T of total mortgage volume, 3T in cash out/refinancing and 1.3T in purchase origination. In 2011 it was around 1.3T of total mortgage volume, 75-80% of that was refinancing, so probably around 300-400B of purchase origination. These numbers are happening with record low rates and home prices at 1Q2003 levels.’

Here’s another strange point: In the fourth quarter of 2011, mortgages were cheaper than they’ve ever been, and yet refinancing was lower than the previous year, when rates were much higher. It all leads to the question: have refis run out?  ‘The decline in the Refinance Index this week was driven largely by a 12.0% drop in government refinance activity, while conventional refinance applications fell by less, decreasing 3.4% from the previous week,’ according to today’s mortgage applications report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.  That’s a problem, because government mortgages (largely FHA) are going to get even more expensive on April 1, when the FHA raises insurance premiums.  There will still be some refis going through the government’s HARP2 program, which allows borrowers who have Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans to refinance, even if they owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth (‘underwater’). Those borrowers have been priced out of the refi market until now, but the program has just kicked into gear, so that could provide a boost.  For others, though, the return on a refi is getting ever smaller as rates go higher. Why do we care about refis? Because they put extra money in consumers’ pockets…money they generally spend, fueling the greater economy.”

GDP slow, joblessness slightly down

The US economy expanded a bit more slowly than expected in the fourth quarter while personal income grew at a much faster pace than previously thought, which should help underpin spending this quarter.  At the same time, new US claims for unemployment benefits fell to a fresh four-year low last week, according to a government report that showed ongoing healing in the labor market.  Gross domestic product increased at a 3.0% annual rate, the quickest pace since the second quarter of 2010, the Commerce Department said in its final estimate today, unrevised from last month’s estimate.  That was below most economists’ expectations of 3.2%, though some had put the number at 3.0%, right on target for the final print. The economy grew at a 1.8% rate in the third quarter.  However, personal income was $13.162 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, $3.3 billion more than previously reported. Disposable income was $10.6 billion more than previously thought, likely reflecting the strengthening labor market.  Gross domestic income, which measures output from the income side, increased at a 4.4% rate — the fastest since the first quarter of 2010 — from a 2.6% rise in the third quarter.  The department also said after-tax profits increased at a 1.1% rate, slowing from 2.7% the prior quarter. The slowdown in profits reflects the increase in wage costs as companies step up hiring.

WSJ – cutting loan balances

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac aren’t granting reductions in homeowners’ loan balances, as has been widely noted of late. Nevertheless, some Americans who have gotten into trouble on their mortgages are actually seeing their loan balances cut, as a debate rages in Washington about whether doing so on a wider scale will be effective.  More than 35,000 homeowners received principal reductions from their lender last year, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) said in a report yesterday. The total was up about 20% from about 29,000 in 2010. But it was still down 23% from nearly 46,000 in 2009, when banks started to write down loans acquired at a discount from failed institutions.  Banks are mainly granting homeowners write-downs if they hold those loans on their balance sheet and tend to do so for loans that are significantly under water. They are not permitted to do so for loans that they have sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the federally controlled mortgage investors.  Principal reductions made up about 8.5% of all loan modifications completed in the fourth quarter, compared with 7.8% in the third quarter of last year and 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2010, the regulator said. 

The OCC’s quarterly “mortgage metrics” report covers 31.4 million loans worth $5.4 trillion, or 60% of US home loans. Of those mortgages, about 3.8 million, or 12% had missed at least one mortgage payment, and 1.3 million were in foreclosure as of the end of last year.  Whether to encourage more loan reductions for troubled homeowners has been a matter of intense public interest. The Obama administration has stepped up pressure on the independent regulator for Fannie and Freddie to grant more reductions, offering new incentives to do so.  The federal regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, has been evaluating the incentives the administration has offered. But the agency’s acting director, Edward DeMarco, has resisted doing so, saying that it may not make economic sense for Fannie and Freddie and could encourage more borrowers to default.

In addition to Fannie and Freddie, other government agencies including the Federal Housing Administration and Veterans Administration do not grant principal write-downs.  Fannie and Freddie do use a similar form of loan assistance, known as principal forbearance. That kind of program does not require lenders to forgive debt. Instead, lenders set aside a portion of the loan, not requiring any payments on it until the borrower sells the home or pays off the loan.  Lenders’ use of this approach has grown significantly more than principal write-downs. They enacted nearly 103,000 principal forbearance plans enacted last year, up from about 94,000 in 2010 and 15,000 in 2009. In a letter sent to lawmakers in January, Mr. DeMarco indicated a preference for those forbearance plans, arguing that it “achieves marginally lower losses” for the taxpayer-backed company than principal forgiveness.