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real estate short sales

Identity theft and tax fraud

by admin on May 9, 2012

Modified loans defaulting

The number of Federal Housing Administration-insured home loans entering foreclosure jumped in March after half the mortgages it modified to ease repayment terms were in default again a year or more later.  The FHA’s role in lending to first-time buyers with poor credit and limited cash expanded after the 2008 collapse of the mortgage market put it at the center of government efforts to revive housing. The FHA allows down payments as low as 3.5 percent for borrowers with a credit score of 580, below the 640 defined as subprime by the Federal Reserve.  n increase in FHA foreclosures may lead to further demands for stricter standards that could shut buyers out of the real estate market as it shows signs of stabilizing after a six-year slump. Mark Calabria, director of financial regulation studies at the Cato Institute in Washington, in a February report called for Congress to tighten the agency’s lending qualifications to protect taxpayers, who insure the loans. First-time homebuyers accounted for 33 percent of real estate sales in March, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Borrowers with mortgages for homes bought in 2010, the FHA’s peak lending year, now owe almost 7 percent more than their homes are worth if they used the minimum down payment, according to S&P/Case-Shiller home price index data. That year, the agency insured 1.1 million loans to purchase single-family homes, more than four times the total of 261,165 in 2007.  Lenders initiated foreclosures on 36,400 FHA-backed mortgages, twice the number in April 2011, according to Lender Processing Services. The increase for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans was 13 percent, the Jacksonville, Florida-based mortgage- data company said.  A Treasury Department study of modified government- guaranteed mortgages in the fourth quarter found that 49 percent were delinquent again after 12 months. The Treasury report analyzed a group of loans that was 80 percent FHA, 15 percent Veterans Administration mortgages and 5 percent Department of Agriculture rural home loans. The rate for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was 27 percent.  The share of government-guaranteed loans being paid on time dropped to 84.2 percent in the fourth quarter from 85.2 percent in the prior three months, the Treasury’s Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said in its March 28 report. It was the third consecutive quarterly decline.  The U.S. housing market is showing signs of having hit a bottom after prices fell 35 percent since peaking in 2006. Values in 20 U.S. cities fell 3.5 percent in February, the smallest 12-month drop since February 2011, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed last month. New homes sold at an annual pace of 328,000 in March, up 7.5 percent from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said.

Identity theft and tax fraud

After checking employment records, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) said it found more returns may have been sent to tax filers using stolen identities than the IRS initially estimated.  If the IRS does not do more to catch improper refunds, up to $26 billion could be refunded to identity thieves in the next five years, J. Russell George, head of TIGTA, told a congressional hearing on Tuesday. He said IRS may have issued $5.2 billion more in refunds through ID tax fraud than the agency had earlier estimated.  The IRS did not dispute the watchdog’s figures, but said estimates for ID theft tax fraud would be lower if updated to include new IRS practices, said Steven Miller, IRS deputy commissioner for services and enforcement.

MBA – mortgage applications up

Mortgage applications increased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 4, 2012.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2.0 percent compared with the previous week.  Increases to the seasonally adjusted Market Composite and Purchase indices were driven by increases in their Conventional components.  Application activity within the Government market decreased for both of these measures from last week.  Likewise, the Refinance Index increased 1.3 percent from the previous week, driven by a 1.8 percent increase to the Conventional Refinance Index, while the Government Refinance Index decreased 2.3 percent.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.4 percent from one week earlier, spurred by a 5.4 percent increase in the seasonally adjusted Conventional Purchase Index. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1.13 percent.  The four week moving average is down 0.82 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.81 percent for the Refinance Index.  The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 72.6 percent the previous week.  This is the lowest refinance share since April 6, 2012.  The government purchase share decreased over the week from 37.0 percent to 35.8 percent of all purchase applications.  This is the lowest government purchase share since March 27, 2009.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 4.01 percent from 4.05 percent, with points decreasing to 0.41 from  0.44 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  This is the lowest 30-year fixed interest rate recorded in the history of the survey.   The effective rate decreased from last week.

Oil down

Oil fell for a sixth day in New York, the longest run of declines in almost two years, after crude stockpiles advanced in the U.S., the world’s largest consumer of the commodity.  Futures slid as much as 0.8 percent after dropping 8.6 percent in the past five days. U.S. inventories increased 7.8 million barrels last week to 378 million, the highest level since August 1990, the American Petroleum Institute said yesterday. A government report today may show supplies rose 2 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Oil is poised to rebound as global refiners increase purchases, Societe Generale SA predicts.  “U.S. inventory levels are preventing oil having the traditional dead cat bounce after such a steep fall,” said Christopher Bellew, a senior broker at Jefferies Bache Ltd. in London, who predicts prices will rebound this month. “The lows we’ve seen this week will probably hold, and crude will likely rise as buying by funds and weakness in the dollar assist with a recovery.”  Crude for June delivery fell as much as 76 cents to $96.25 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $96.53 at 8:58 a.m. London time. It slipped 1 percent yesterday to $97.01, the lowest close since Feb. 6. Front-month prices are down 2.2 percent this year. The six-day decline is the longest since July 2010.  Brent for June settlement was at $112.50 a barrel, down 0.2 percent, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract’s premium to West Texas Intermediate was at $15.83, little changed from $15.72 yesterday.  The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said its basket of crudes was at $109.58 a barrel yesterday, the first time the grades have fallen below $110 since Jan. 3.

WSJ – Freddie drops fee

In the latest bid to help homeowners hit by the housing crash, Freddie Mac, the U.S.-supported mortgage giant, is set to drop a fee associated with refinancing deeply underwater loans.  The firm plans to eliminate a fee of 0.5 percentage point, called a “cash adjustor,” on loans refinanced under the Home Affordable Refinance Program with balances greater than 125% of the property’s value, said Paul Mullings, a senior vice president at Freddie Mac. He spoke at a Mortgage Bankers Association conference on Monday.  Dropping the fee represents the latest sign that the government-sponsored enterprises and their regulator are determined to extend the reach of the refi program. Changes last year eliminated the loan-to-value cap and relieved banks of some liabilities that could arise with homeowners willing to default.  Freddie Mac had earlier this year dropped the cash adjustor on HARP refinancings for mortgages with loan-to-value ratios ranging from 105% through 125%, and encouraged the lenders to pass the savings to consumers. (The fee was created to help offset some of the increased risk seen in such refis.)

Where manufacturing is gaining

After hemorrhaging jobs during the recession , manufacturing has been one of the few bright spots, restoring 489,000 jobs since the beginning of 2010.  But there have been some significant geographic distinctions in that recovery, as well as some toppled assumptions, one of which is that factory jobs have steadily shifted from the Midwest to the South.  A new report from the Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program shows that since the beginning of 2010, manufacturing employment has increased by 5.2 percent in the Midwest, while it has gone up by only 2.2 percent in the South.  Southern regions remain relatively strong in manufacturing, with eight metropolitan areas on that list. But the usual narrative of an inexorably declining Rust Belt seems not quite accurate – or at least for now.

“It’s possible that this bounce-back is just a bounce-back and won’t last,” said Howard Wial, an economist and fellow at the Brookings Institution who was one of the authors of the report. “But there is an opportunity for it to be more.”  The study also examined the clustering of manufacturing companies in particular regions. Very high-tech manufacturing companies are concentrated in the Northwest and West, for example, while chemical companies are found mostly in the South.  The authors indicated that most state and local governments do little to foster a thriving manufacturing industry when they offer tax breaks and other incentives to companies or pass right-to-work laws that tend to suppress wages. Instead, they say, governments should focus on research and development and work-force training aimed at specific manufacturing sectors.  Mr. Wial said that there was some evidence that manufacturing could make more of a comeback in the United States because labor costs are rising in developing countries and “many large companies are starting to reconsider the costs and benefits of offshoring.”

CoreLogic – Market Pulse

CoreLogic today released its May CoreLogic MarketPulse report. The monthly economic publication provides insight into the current and future health of the U.S. economic climate with particular focus on housing and mortgage metrics. CoreLogic Chief Economist Mark Fleming and Senior Economist Sam Khater authored the articles and commentary.  Key findings in the May MarketPulse Report include:

-  The national housing market is transitioning to more stability in sales and home prices, with reasonable inventory levels and a declining share of REO sales.

-  Short sales, modifications, and other foreclosure alternatives are playing a larger role than in years past, and the flow of new foreclosures is declining with an improving economy.

-  Mortgage performance is experiencing a slow and steady improvement as the 90+ day serious delinquency rate in March fell to 7.0 percent, the lowest rate since July 2009. “This decline in serious delinquency represents a significant reduction of approximately three quarters of a million borrowers,” said Fleming in the report.

-  Overall home sales activity continues to improve, with total sales eclipsing 410,000, up more than 20 percent from a year ago and the highest March sales rate since 2007.

-  While the national market continues to improve, it masks regional variation where some local markets are improving much more rapidly than others. The most improved markets from a year ago are Phoenix, Boise and Salt Lake City.

-  Home prices are at, or very close to, the bottom as the Memorial Day weekend approaches.

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69,000 foreclosures in March

by admin on May 1, 2012

69,000 foreclosures in March

CoreLogic today released its National Foreclosure Report for March, which provides monthly data on completed foreclosures, foreclosure inventory and 90+ day delinquency rates. There were 69,000 completed foreclosures in March 2012 compared to 85,000 in March 2011 and 66,000* in February 2012. Through the first quarter of 2012, there were 198,000 completed foreclosures compared to 232,000 through the first quarter of 2011. Since the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.5 million completed foreclosures.   Approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.4% of all homes with a mortgage, were in the national foreclosure inventory as of March 2012 compared to 1.5 million, or 3.5%, in March 2011 and 1.4 million, or 3.4%, in February 2012. The number of loans in the foreclosure inventory decreased by nearly 100,000, or 6.0%, in March 2012 compared to March 2011.   

The share of borrowers nationally that were more than 90 days late on their mortgage payment, including homes in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) assets, fell to 7.0% in March 2012 from 7.5% in March 2011, and remained unchanged from 7.0% in February 2012.  Also in March, the inventory of REO assets held by servicers nationwide grew more slowly than the pace of REO sales, as measured by the distressed clearing ratio.  The distressed clearing ratio is calculated by dividing the number of REO sales by the number of completed foreclosures. The higher the distressed clearing ratio, the faster the pace of REO sales relative to the pace of completed foreclosures.  The distressed clearing ratio for March 2012 was 0.81, up from 0.76 in February 2012.

 Highlights as of March 2012

-  The five states with the largest number of completed foreclosures for the 12 months ending in March 2012 were:  California (150,000), Florida (92,000), Michigan (62,000), Arizona (58,000) and Texas (57,000). These five states account for 49.1% of all completed foreclosures nationally.

-  The% of homeowners nationally who were more than 90 days late on their mortgage payments, including homes in foreclosure and REO, was 7.0% for March 2012 compared to 7.5% for March 2011, and 7.0% in February 2012.   

-  The five states with the highest foreclosure rates were:  Florida (12.1%), New Jersey (6.6%), Illinois (5.4%), Nevada (4.9%) and New York (4.9%).

-  The five states with the lowest foreclosure rates were:  Wyoming (0.7%), Alaska (0.8%), North Dakota (0.8%), Nebraska (1.1%) and South Dakota (1.4%).

-  Of the top 100 markets, measured by Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) population, 35 are showing an increase in the year-over-year foreclosure rate in March 2012, two more than in February 2012 when 33 of the top CBSAs were showing an increase in the year-over-year foreclosure rate.   

*February data was revised.  Revisions are standard, and to ensure accuracy CoreLogic incorporates newly released data to provide updated results.

BOA to cut 400 jobs

Bank of America (BOA) is planning to cut up to 400 jobs in its investment banking, corporate banking, and sales and trading units, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the situation.  An expected sale of the bank’s non-US wealth-management operations in Asia, Latin America, and Europe would eliminate up to 2,000 jobs, the Journal reported.  Reuters reported on April 17 that Bank of America was looking to sell its wealth-management units outside the US for as much as $3 billion.  BOA declined to comment on the Journal report.  Last spring, the bank announced a cost-cutting program called Project New BAC that aims to eliminate 30,000 consumer banking and technology jobs over the next few years.  The bank has said it expects to wrap up plans for the second phase of the program, which focuses on investment banking, commercial banking, and related support jobs in May. The second phase is expected to cut fewer jobs than the first because it covers a smaller, more efficient part of the bank.  At the end of March, Bank of America had about 278,700 employees worldwide.

Olick – renter nation

“More Americans are renting homes, and fewer are owning them; it’s not as if this is news to anyone who follows the US housing market, but a new report from the Census Bureau today really put an historical exclamation point on the trend.  The share of US household renting reached a fifteen year high, and home ownership reached a 15-year low. Funny how those numbers travel together.  34.6% of households were renters in the first quarter of this year, and that number is climbing, as lack of credit or sufficient down payment keeps Americans young and old from becoming home owners. Rental vacancies are therefore falling, the lowest rate out West, where foreclosures have run the highest during this housing crash. That is also where investors are rushing in to buy foreclosed properties and put them up for rent. Single family homes for rent, in fact, surpassed multi-family units, taking 52% of the $3 trillion rental market, according to CoreLogic.

Both rental and homeowner vacancies are down, which is a general positive for the housing market, because empty houses are a blight on communities. ‘The vacancy rates will only decline if household formation is increasing or units are being destroyed,’ notes ISI Group’s Stephen East.  While banks have bulldozed some foreclosed properties here and there, the practice is by no means popular or widespread. That should mean that household formation is increasing, which is generally a product of an improving jobs picture. Younger Americans who have been living together or with their parents may finally be getting into their own homes, more likely into rentals, but at least they’re forming their own households. That is thanks to a small drop in the unemployment rate among 25-34 year olds to its lowest rate in three years. The home ownership rate now stands at 65.4%, down a full percentage point from a year ago, and down from just over 69% at the peak in 2004.  Since the recession began, growth in overall new households has been about 50% short of trend lines, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. While household formation is rebounding for single or un-related Americans, formation among families is still waning; that may be due to the types of homes they need, i.e. larger, single-family homes. It thus stands to reason that pent-up demand will show itself first in single family rentals in the future and less in multi-family. No wonder investors are flooding the foreclosure market.”

No more easing?

Two top Federal Reserve officials — one with a dovish, employment-focused bent, and the other a self-avowed inflation hawk — yesterday both said they see no need for the US central bank to ease monetary policy any further.  But the comments, from San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, do not mean they believe the central bank should quickly move to raise rates, which it has kept near zero for more than three years.  The economy grew at a 2.2% pace last quarter, down from its 3% growth rate in the final three months of the year. Recent economic data, including a gauge of business activity in the US Midwest, signal growth may slow further this quarter.  “I don’t think we are ready to exit yet,” Fisher, an inflation hawk, told Reuters at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles.  Fisher said he would oppose the extension of Operation Twist, the Fed bond-buying program that is set to end in June, but stopped short of calling for outright monetary tightening.  “We’ll have to see how the year works out,” he said.

US home ownership sets new record – down

The US homeownership rate fell to the lowest level in 15 years in the first quarter as borrowers lost homes to foreclosure and tighter inventory and credit kept buyers off the market.  The rate dropped to 65.4% from 66% in the fourth quarter and fell a full percentage point from a year earlier, the Census Bureau said in a report today. That is the lowest level since the first quarter of 1997, and down from a record 69.2% in June 2004.  Mounting foreclosures are displacing borrowers, while a lack of inventory has kept home sales from accelerating amid record affordability, the National Association of Realtors reported April 19. Stricter mortgage standards are also limiting purchases as rental demand surges, said Paul Diggle, property economist with Capital Economics Ltd. in London.  “Although house prices and mortgage rates have fallen to a level that makes buying preferable to renting, ongoing problems accessing mortgage credit are preventing many households from taking advantage,” he wrote in a note today.  The US apartment vacancy rate fell to 4.9% in the first quarter, an 11-year low, according to New York-based Reis Inc. (REIS).  The vacancy rate for rental homes was 8.8% in the first quarter, compared with 9.7% a year earlier, the Census Bureau said in today’s report.

Of the estimated 132.6 million US homes, 18.5 million, or 13.9%, were vacant in the first quarter. A year earlier, about 19 million homes were vacant, according to the report. That includes homes for sale or rent or held off the market, and vacation properties used seasonally.  The ownership rate may drop below 64% by the end of 2015 and stay there for years, Scott Simon, the mortgage bond head of Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said in an e-mail today.  “It will be lower by 2017,” he said. “It will be lower in 2020.”  About 6 million borrowers will lose their properties in the next five years because of inability to pay, creating 4 million new rental households, Simon said in an April 24 interview on Bloomberg Television.  The homeownership rate fell 3 percentage points from a year earlier to 61.4% in the first quarter for people aged 35 to 44, the biggest drop of any age group. The Northeast had the biggest regional decline, with the ownership rate falling 1.4 percentage points to 62.5%. The West had the lowest ownership rate at 59.9%, down 1 percentage point from a year earlier. 

The US homeownership rate rose to a record in 2004 when President George W. Bush, running for re-election, called for expanding home-loan availability to create an “ownership society.” The current rate of 65.4% matches the average since 1965, when the Census Bureau began reporting the figures, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  Home prices fell 3.5% in February from a year earlier and are 35% below their July 2006 peak, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 US cities. The average rate for a 30-year fixed loan was 3.88% last week and reached 3.87% in February, the lowest level in at least four decades, according to Freddie Mac.  About 2.37 million homes were listed for sale in March, a and 6.3 month supply and down 22% from a year earlier, the Realtors association said on April 19. A six-month supply is considered a healthy market, according to the group.

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Short sales new normal in Seattle and California

by admin on April 25, 2012

Short sales new normal in Seattle and California

As the housing market works to find a new direction, new data shows short sales may be the way to go.  The number of distressed properties is on the rise and in some places, account for more than half of all home sales in the first three months of 2012.  According to Washington Property Solutions, a third of all home sales in Seattle and on the Eastside were short sales or bank-owned properties.  In Pierce and Snohomish counties the numbers are even higher. 51% of home sales in Snohomish County involved distressed properties. In Pierce County, it’s 54%.  Many banks, including Chase and Bank of America, now have incentive programs for homeowners to complete a short sale.  Banks forgive the debt, and the homeowner can pocket up to $30,000 to help maintain the property and see the sale through. 

California mortgage defaults fell to their lowest level in almost five years as banks cut their backlog of distressed property with more short sales, in which homes are sold for less than the amount owed, DataQuick said.  First-time notices of default totaled 56,258 in the first quarter, down 8.5% from the previous three months and 18% from a year earlier, the San Diego-based data seller said today in a statement. Default notices are the beginning of the foreclosure process in the most populous US state.  Short sales increased to an estimated 20% of deals, up from 18% a year earlier. Areas in the state with median home values of less than $200,000 had the most defaults, at 8.9 per 1,000 homes, almost four times the number in neighborhoods with a median greater than $800,000, where the rate was 2.3 per 1,000.

Durable goods down

Durable goods orders tumbled 4.2%, the largest decline since January 2009, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday after a downwardly revised 1.9% increase in February.  Economists had forecast orders for durable goods, which range from toasters to aircraft, falling 1.7% after a previously reported 2.4% rise in February.  Orders were dragged down by a 12.5% plunge in bookings for transportation equipment — the most since November 2010.  Excluding transportation, orders fell 1.1% after a 1.9% rise in February. Economists had forecast this category rising 0.5%.  The report added to signs that manufacturing exited the first quarter with less momentum. Data last week showed industrial production was flat in March for a second straight month, while some gauges of regional factory activity weakened in April.

The plunge in orders for transportation equipment reflected a 47.6% drop in bookings for civilian aircraft. Boeing received only 53 orders for aircraft, according to the plane maker’s website, down from 237 in February.  Orders for motor vehicles barely rose last month.  Adding to the report’s weak tenor, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, fell 0.8% after an upwardly revised 2.8% rise the prior month.  Economists had expected this category to rise 0.9% after a previously reported 1.7% increase.  But shipments of non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, which go into the calculation of gross domestic product, rose 2.6% after increasing 1.4% in February.  This suggests that growth in business investment in capital goods increased in the first quarter, but probably not as much as in previous periods.

MBA – mortgage applications down

Mortgage applications decreased 3.8% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 20, 2012.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3.3% compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index decreased 5.6% from the previous week, with the Conventional Refinance Index decreasing by 6.1% and the Government Refinance Index decreasing by 2.1%.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2.7% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3.6% compared with the previous week and was essentially unchanged from the same week one year ago. 

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1.23%.  The four week moving average is down 0.67% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.92% for the Refinance Index.  The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 73.4% of total applications from 75.2% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 5.6% from 5.3% of total applications from the previous week.  Within refinance applications taken in March 2012, 58.8% were for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 23.1% for 15-year fixed loans and 5.2% for ARMs.  The share of refinance applications for “other” fixed-rate mortgages with amortization schedules other than 15 and 30-year terms was 12.8% of all refinance applications.

Hundreds of banks struggling to repay TARP

A total of 390 banks, many of them community firms, still struggle to repay a Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) recapitalization fund with no clear exit plan, according to the Special Inspector General of TARP.  “The status of those banks is one of the major issues facing TARP nearly four years after the financial crisis,” according to a SIGTARP report sent to Congress Tuesday.  There is still $118.5 billion outstanding under TARP. The massive bailout package is expected to cost taxpayers $60 billion in the end, according to the most recent estimate.  The Treasury Department paid $204.9 billion in TARP Capital Purchase Program money to 707 banks ranging from smaller operations in local communities to global firms with more than $1 trillion in assets.  As of March 31, only 43% of the banks left TARP by actually paying back the taxpayer.  In September 2011, the Treasury allowed 137 healthier banks to refinance their dividend and capital repayments and exit TARP through a special program called the Small Business Lending Fund. 

Those remaining face a dividend raise to 9% in late 2013 from 5% owed now. Of the 351 remaining banks that received funds through the specific TARP CPP, one-third missed five or more dividend payments and face formal enforcement actions by regulators.  “We’ve already recovered more than we invested in TARP’s bank programs through repayments and other income,” said Treasury Assistant Secretary Tim Massad. “Moving forward, while there’s no one-size-fits-all approach, you’ll continue to see us make significant additional progress winding down the program in the year ahead through repayments, sales, and other methods.”  Law required the Treasury to allow banks to refinance out of TARP. Roughly $2 billion in bailouts were refinanced using the SBLF program, equal to about 1% of the $245 billion spent through all of the TARP bank programs.  Capital levels at banks gone from the program are in far better shape than those remaining. According to SIGTARP, less than 4% of the banks able to refinance out of TARP held a Tier 1 common capital ratio below 7%. Of those still in the program, more than 20% have a Tier 1 level that low.  Banks in the Southeast and Midwest had the most trouble exiting the program.  SIGTARP recommended Treasury develop a clear exit path to ensure as many community banks can exit the program as possible and “prepare to deal with the banks that cannot.”  “It is unclear how the remaining banks will exit TARP,” said SIGTARP Director Christy Romero. “Getting these banks back on their feet without government assistance must remain a high priority of Treasury and the federal banking regulators.”

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Higher prices coming?

by admin on April 12, 2012

WSJ – foreclosures fall, but…

First-quarter foreclosures declined 16% from a year earlier, falling to their lowest quarterly total since 2007, according to the latest report from market researcher RealtyTrac.  The number of foreclosure filings in the first quarter fell 2% sequentially. Default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions were reported on 572,928 US properties in the latest quarter, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2007, when 527,740 properties with foreclosure filings were reported. One in every 230 US housing units had a foreclosure filing during the quarter.  In March, there were 198,853 US properties in varying stages of foreclosure, down 17% from a year earlier and 4% from the prior month.  RealtyTrac reported the decline in foreclosure activity is primarily due to decreasing activity in states that use the nonjudicial foreclosure process. Foreclosure filings in these 24 states and the District of Columbia, which represented more than half of the nation’s total during the quarter, fell 28% on the year. States that primarily use the judicial foreclosure process saw a 10% year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity in the first quarter.

RealtyTrac Chief Executive Brandon Moore warned that the low foreclosure numbers in the latest period do not indicate that the massive amount of distressed properties built up over the past few years has evaporated.  “There are hairline cracks in the dam, evident in the sizable foreclosure activity increases in judicial foreclosure states over the past several months, along with an increase in foreclosure starts in many judicial and non-judicial states in March,” Moore said in a statement. “The dam may not burst in the next 30 to 45 days, but it will eventually burst, and everyone downstream should be prepared for that to happen–both in terms of new foreclosure activity and new short sale activity.”  Completing the foreclosure process took an average of 370 days in the first quarter, up from 348 days in the prior quarter. However, RealtyTrac noted the average foreclosure timeline fell in bellwether states like California, Colorado, Utah, Massachusetts and Nevada.

Nevada’s foreclosure activity fell 62% on the year and 26% from the prior quarter, but the state again posted the nation’s highest foreclosure rate. In the latest period, one in every 95 Nevada housing units received a foreclosure filing.  California had the second highest rate, though the state’s default activity also decreased on a quarterly and annual basis. One in every 103 California housing units had a foreclosure filing in the first quarter. The state also had the highest number of properties with foreclosure filings.  Arizona had the third highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 106 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.

Jobless claims up

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, defying economists’ expectations for a drop to 355,000.  The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, rose 4,250 to 368,500.  Some economists blamed the Easter holidays for the spike in claims and expected applications to trend lower in coming weeks.  “It’s very difficult to know the extent to which that’s driven by seasonal effects from Easter or not,” said Eric Green, chief economist at TD Securities in New York.  The claims data comes in the wake of Friday’s disappointing employment report for March, which showed the economy created 120,000 new jobs, the smallest amount since October.  Despite the rise in claims last week, both first-time applications for unemployment aid and the four-week average held below the 400,000 mark, implying steady job gains.

Olick – higher prices coming?

“A response to a recent RealtyCheck blog on home prices included the following:  ‘Someone needs to explain to Ms. Olick what these ‘price declines’ really represent because they most assuredly do not measure how much home values have changed. They simply measure the statistical midpoint for all home sales. So in an economy where people are buying smaller homes that number moves down. That doesn’t mean that every house lost that % value.’  Thanks, but no explanation necessary, as I believe I covered that a while back. But I would like to elaborate a bit on this theme, as we’re starting to see some changes mortgage applications; specifically the average loan amount is rising, which might suggest a turnaround in pricing, due to a change in the type of homes being bought.  The average size of a mortgage purchase application increased 9% from December to the end of March, from $214,500 to $233,300 in March, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘That points to underlying improvement in borrowers’ appetite for mortgage credit,’ notes Paul Diggle of Capital Economics. 

Just yesterday analysts at Goldman Sachs said both Toll Brothers and Pulte Homes should benefit from more positive sentiment among high end buyers. Their survey showed 63% of respondents expect home prices to be either stable or rise, but 83% of respondents with an annual income above $120,000 expect home prices to be either stable or rise. That’s up from 75% six months ago.  If in fact the higher end buyers start getting back into the market, or at least the move-up buyers, that will shift the volume to a higher price range and consequently the median price, which gets all that national attention. 72% of home sales in February were of homes priced less than $250,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.  Of course, as I always say, all real estate is local, as are all home prices, and let us not forget that.”

Producer prices flat

US producer prices were unchanged last month after advancing 0.4% in February.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices at farms, factories and refineries to rise 0.3%.  Wholesale prices excluding volatile food and energy costs rose 0.3% after February’s 0.2% gain.  That was a touch above economists’ expectations for a 0.2% advance and marked the fifth successive month of increases in core PPI.  Over one-third of the rise in core PPI was attributed to prices for light motor trucks. Higher costs for passenger cars, soaps and detergents also contributed to the advance in core PPI.  However, manufacturers have limited scope to pass on these increased costs to consumers given the still considerable slack in the economy.  Overall producer prices were held back by a 2.0% fall in gasoline, the largest decline since October, after a 4.3% jump in February. That offset a 0.2% rise in food prices, which halted three straight months of declines.  However, gasoline prices rose 7.5%, when seasonal factors are excluded.  In the 12 months to March, wholesale prices increased 2.8%, the smallest increase since June 2010, after advancing 3.3% in February.  Outside food and energy, producer prices were pushed up by light motor trucks prices, which rebounded 0.7% after falling 0.4% in February. Passenger car prices rose 0.8% after edging up 0.1% the prior month.  The increases likely reflected strong demand for automobiles.  In the 12 months to March, core producer prices increased 2.9% after rising 3.0% the previous month.

Loan demand improves

Loan demand in the banking industry, as well as residential and commercial real estate activity, improved in most Federal Reserve districts across the US, according to the latest Beige Book from the Fed.  The survey, which develops a consensus on economic activity by interviewing industry contacts in every Federal Reserve district, reported that the US economy continued to grow at a modest pace from mid-February to late March.  Residential real estate activity also improved in most districts, with Cleveland and San Francisco remaining outliers with lackluster real estate activity.  Nationwide construction of multifamily housing units grew in most Fed districts, with most of the construction centered around apartments and senior housing.  Meanwhile, home prices continued to fall in key areas like Boston, New York and Minneapolis. Prices remained flat in San Francisco.  Mild winter weather during the first part of the year delivered a slight boost in real estate activity in the areas of Boston, Philadelphia and Kansas City. 

Conditions in the financial services and banking industry remained “stable” as demand for lending increased modestly. While lending remained unchanged in St. Louis, it expanded in New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco.  “In general, the demand for commercial and industrial loans remained steady, while several districts reported an increase in commercial real estate lending activity,” the Beige Book said.  “The Philadelphia and Cleveland districts reported increased lending for multifamily housing and health care, and contacts in Richmond cited increased lending to small business to finance inventory and capital expenditures.”  Overall, residential real estate showed signs of modest improvement and multifamily housing construction continued to grow. On the banking side, credit quality increased and financial firms noted improvement in loan demand.

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Underwater borrowers eligible for settlement write-downs

by admin on March 6, 2012

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin March 5, 2012

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Underwater borrowers eligible for settlement write-downs

A calculation by a Brookings Institution economist narrowed down a pool of underwater homeowners to 500,000 who could qualify for principal reduction from the $25 billion mortgage settlement.  Using the parameters of the settlement, Ted Gayer found just 5% of the nation’s 11.1 million underwater borrowers could get the principal reduced on their mortgage, first reported by The Washington Post. About $10 billion of the settlement, in the form of credits, will go toward principal write-downs made by the five banks. Only homeowners delinquent on their mortgages are eligible. Gayer eliminated others according to underlying requirements, including Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac loans and homes not owner-occupied. It’s a rough calculation, Gayer warned, and he made some assumptions in the process. He eliminated any loans not held on the banks’ balance sheets, as well as any with a second loan. Mortgage bondholders may not take kindly to principal write-downs, he said.

Greek Bond Swap Deal Rests on Knife Edge

Greece faces a decisive week in its struggle to avert a sovereign default, with a planned debt swap poised on a knife-edge amid doubts over the level of participation by private bondholders. Charles Dallara, the head of the international consortium of financial institutions that negotiated the debt restructuring, declined to predict the rate but acknowledged that the complexity of the deal had required some investors to spend time understanding it. Many investors need to decide by Tuesday because of the complications of the deal. Because of the size of their holdings, a large number of bondholders will have to consult their boards, especially as the loss is about 75 percent in net present value terms. Private holders of 206 billion euros in Greek bonds have until Thursday evening to decide whether to take part in a swap where they would trade bonds for a package of bonds and cash that would knock about 100 billion euros off Athens’ debts. Private holders of 206 billion euros in Greek bonds have until Thursday evening to decide whether to take part in a swap where they would trade bonds for a package of bonds and cash that would knock about 100 billion euros off Athens’ debts.

New Jersey witnesses lending resurgence

The volume of loans written by New Jersey-based banks rose 16.5% in 2009-2011, while lending fell 5.6% nationwide over that span, according to The Star-Ledger in Newark. Most of the gains in the Garden State were attributable to MetLife expanding into mortgage lending, which the insurance giant has since abandoned. But smaller lenders stepped into the void left by the exit of some of the larger banks, as well. HousingWire explored how community banks are boosting market share as big banks write fewer home loans in our latest HW Focus on Lending, a supplement to the March issue. “We made a conscious effort to take advantage of other banks stepping back,” Kevin Cummings, president and CEO of Investors Bank of Short Hills told the Star-Ledger. Cummings’ firm increased its commercial balance sheet to $3.6 billion from $380 million at the end of 2007.

US stock futures fall on global economy worries

US stock index futures fell on Monday after data showed Europe’s private sector activity declined last month and China cut its growth target, reigniting concerns about the strength of the global economy. European stocks dropped, with shares in euro zone peripheral countries such as Italy and Spain among the worst hit, after data showed the region was likely to slide back into recession. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao cut his nation’s 2012 growth target to an 8-year low of 7.5 percent and put a priority on boosting consumer demand in hopes of weaning the economy off a reliance on external demand and foreign capital. European markets were also pressured ahead of a March 8 deadline for Greece and private bondholders to complete a debt swap. Failure to reach agreement would put the country back on the brink of a messy default. Economists look for a drop of 1.5 percent after a 1.1 percent rise in the previous month. American International Group Inc is selling part of its stake in AIA Group Ltd to raise about $6 billion to help repay a huge federal government bailout.

DSnews.com: Treasury Reinstates HAMP Incentives

The Treasury Department says servicers participating in the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) are getting better at evaluating homeowners for the program, including noticeable improvement in assessing borrower income to determine program eligibility and calculate the amount of their modified payments. HAMP performance reviews evaluate servicers based on three categories: identifying and contacting homeowners; homeowner evaluation and assistance; and program reporting, management, and governance. Treasury said it agreed to release withheld incentives for past deficiencies as part of the $25 billion federal-state mortgage servicing settlement announced last month, but officials stress that they retain the right to withhold incentives in the future should the results of HAMP compliance reviews warrant such remedial action. As of the end of January, participating servicers had granted 951,319 permanent HAMP modifications to distressed borrowers. There are an additional 76,343 HAMP trials currently in active status.

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Chris McLaughlin

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