realtor

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The Return of the Short Sale Sensei: Ninja Negotiation at Its Best

She was one them.

She’s dined with them.  Had drinks with them.  And went over to birthday

parties at their home.  If there’s a secret that loss mitigators have, she knows it.  She was one of them, after all…for 15 years.

Until now.

Join us for the Return of the Short Sale Sensei and learn how to utilize

her negotiation services Tuesday at 3 PM ET, NOON PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/167885371

**********************************************************

Olick – Now we all pay

Diana Olick’s latest column puts “principal writedown” in perspective:  “The government is officially giving borrowers back home equity. Yep, somewhere between $35 and $50 billion worth. Of course we’ve all lost over $5 trillion, but who’s counting? Lenders still aren’t required to do it, but they’re going to get an awful lot of taxpayer-funded incentives to do it…Let’s face it, the underwater issue (that is borrowers owing more on their loans than their homes are worth) is now far bigger than the subprime issue and the unemployment issue.  Yes, it’s concentrated heavily in five states, but it still manages to plague home prices nationwide.  People are walking away in greater numbers than ever before, and people who want to stay are unable to get into modification programs because of their overwhelming negative equity.  Yesterday, before the House Oversight Committee, Treasury Secretary Herb Allison said his concern with principal write down was 1) expense, 2) fairness, and 3) moral hazard. I asked him this morning what had changed overnight?  ‘The moral hazard aspects are mitigated by the structure of the programs.’   I’m not entirely sure what that means, although I’m sure many smart people behind closed White House doors came up with that exact phrase. I guess it means that because borrowers and servicers have to earn the write down incentives over three years that it’s fair.  Or maybe because it helps keeps borrowers out of foreclosure, thereby stabilizing home prices around them, that it’s fair. Or maybe because the servicers and investors have to bear some cost, that it’s fair. Maybe it’s just that there is simply no other way to get ourselves out from under this mess than to forget all the bad choices some lenders and borrowers made and give them a fresh start. And for those of us who acted responsibly? No pain no gain.  As I tell my kids every day, life isn’t fair.”

DSNews.com – More foreclosures comin 

According to the latest Mortgage Metrics Report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS), performance of home mortgages serviced by the largest national banks and federally regulated thrifts declined for the seventh consecutive quarter in the fourth quarter of 2009.  The overall percentage of current and performing mortgages fell to 86.4 percent at the end of last year, driven by an increase in mortgages that were 90 or more days past due. Prime mortgages, which make up two-thirds of the mortgages in the portfolio, continued to have the greatest increases in delinquency.  Overall, servicers implemented more than 594,000 new home retention actions during the fourth quarter, according to the report. That included 259,410 new trial plans initiated under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) and 21,316 existing trial plans converted to permanent HAMP modifications. The actions also included 102,102 loan modifications, 94,667 trial plans, and 116,600 payment plans for borrowers who did not qualify for HAMP.  The number of new home retention actions was more than twice the number of new modifications during the same quarter a year ago.  More than 82 percent of all modifications implemented during the fourth quarter of last year reduced borrowers’ principal and interest payments, and all HAMP modifications reduced monthly payments. Most HAMP modifications decreased borrowers’ monthly payments by 20 percent or more, according to the regulators’ report.  Loan servicers report that they “expect new foreclosure actions to increase in upcoming quarters as alternatives to prevent foreclosure are exhausted and a larger number of seriously delinquent mortgages slip into foreclosure,” the report said.

“No, I don’t want to pay the same mortgage anymore”

New plans to push lenders to offer principal forgiveness and originate Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-backed refinance mortgages are leading borrower advocates to argue that the program isn’t enough to entice lenders and servicers to participate. Additionally, industry players are concerned over the potential moral hazard the initiative potentially presents.  Under the terms of the voluntary program, lenders will be required to write down at least 10% of the mortgage principal for borrowers who are current on their payments.  The program is open to borrowers whose mortgage isn’t currently insured by the FHA. The principal reduction must bring the new FHA loan to value (LTV) to 97.75% and make the new payments account for 31% of the borrower’s monthly income. The program also offers incentives to lenders who offer borrowers with second lien mortgages similar principal reduction and refinance options. The maximum allowed LTV of the combined loans is 115%.  Lee Howlett, president of mortgage technology and service provider ISGN’s servicing practice, believes the industry would have been better served had the principal forgiveness incentives been implemented from the start.  “It’s frustrating in the sense that the people that have gone through some kind of modification, now come back and say I want my principal reduced,” he said. “Every time you announce a program six months after the old one, you run that risk of everybody that’s in the midst of a current trial modification to quit.”  Another lingering question what valuation method will be used to determine the LTV of the underwater borrower.  For my part, I’d like to know:  has the world gone insane 

Consumer Spending Rises 0.3%

The Commerce Department said spending increased 0.3% after rising by a slightly downwardly revised 0.4% in January. Consumer spending in January was previously reported to have increased 0.5%.  Analysts polled by Reuters had expected consumer spending, which normally accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, to increase 0.3% last month.  “I guess the big takeaway is that consumers are comfortably consuming again. We have positive numbers five months in a row since October, which I guess is a good sign,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.  Consumer spending rose at a modest 1.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter, slowing from 2.8% in the prior period, according to a government report on Friday.  Spending adjusted for inflation rose 0.3% last month, adding to a 0.2% increase in January.  Personal income was flat following January’s 0.3% rise, where markets had expected incomes to edge up 0.1%.  Payrolls of goods-producing industries fell $3.5 billion in February after increasing $5.2 billion, while manufacturing slipped $1.4 billion following a $5.0 billion gain.  Real disposable income was flat last month after falling 0.4% in January. With no income growth, savings fell to an annual rate of $340 billion, the lowest level since October 2008. The saving rate slipped to 3.1%, also the smallest rate since October 2008, from 3.4% the prior month.  The data also showed the personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, rising 1.3% in the 12 months to February. The index, which is a key inflation gauge monitored by the U.S. Federal Reserve, increased 1.5% in January.

VAT coming?

On page 146 of President Obama’s 2011 budget, under a table displaying a future of big deficits and mounting debt, is a notification that the Administration is creating a “Fiscal Commission” to “achieve sustainability over the long-run.”  With those bland words, the Administration is acknowledging that the immense weight of the national debt poses a dire threat to the economy, unless America takes radical action. Yet with the signing of the $931 billion healthcare overhaul, fixing future budget problems becomes far more difficult. The reform will immensely swell the amount of federal borrowing, even while the Administration touts the bill as a model of fiscal responsibility.   Only one tax can raise the revenues needed to escape a ruinous rise in debt: a European-style Value-Added Tax, or VAT. “The healthcare bill makes the logical case for the VAT stronger, because it’s not clear that Congress will make the difficult spending reductions the bill mandates,” says William Gale, an economist with the Brookings Institution. “The Fiscal Commission will give significant support for a VAT,” says Brian Riedl of the conservative Heritage Foundation.  Both Riedl and Gale agree that a VAT would most likely be enacted in the wake of a crisis, in which Asian and other foreign investors dump our debt, causing the dollar to collapse and interest rates to soar.  Gale thinks such a crisis is “a low probability event,” but still possible. He adds that a Ross Perot-style politician could champion the VAT, and possibly win broad populist support for it. Riedl believes a debt crisis is a big possibility if the U.S. continues to shun the spending reductions he favors. For now, the VAT doesn’t have much political support. But it’s virtually certain to become perhaps the most hotly debated budget issue of the next few years, precisely because of health care reform.

Now on to our real estate investing education section …

Three Safety Measures for Every Investment

If it feels like earning great returns on your investment dollar has been getting more difficult than ever – it’s not your imagination. Rising unemployment, escalating taxes and printing presses on overdrive paint a bleak picture for average American households. It seems everyone is out to take what little you are able to earn. To add insult to injury, if you do manage to set aside a little from your meager earnings it’s all but impossible to obtain anything more than the most miserly yield from a savings account, money market or certificate of deposit.

Of course, declining wages and shrinking interest rates aside…the cost of living for most people has continued to spiral out of control. Despite the hedonistic adjustments that create the current “official” rate of inflation, Americans sit stunned as they watch college costs rise by over six percent annually, healthcare expenses experience double digit increases and energy/food expenditures outpace earnings.

So, where can investors find new sources of income capable of creating the type of returns needed to keep up with the current rate of inflation and cost of living? Fortunately short sales still provide yields you can actually live with flexible terms and expert resources that benefit the “little guy”.

It might not be exciting…after all, you won’t read headlines about the guy next door doubling his income thanks to short sales…but it is effective and isn’t that what really counts in today’s tough economy? For those that are more interested in keeping pace with life’s rising cost rather than impressing other people, short sales provide the three critical safety measures every investment must have in today’s hostile financial arena:

1. Downside Protection. Remember the old Wall Street saying that investors should care more about the return OF their principal than a return ON their principle? Unlike ultra-risky stocks and bonds that can fall to the mercy of big banks and other bail-outs, short sale investors have a strong grasp on the state of their principle at every turn. Since everything is secured by physical assets, there is little need to worry whether or not your investment will be there a week or a year from now. Because you are buying at the bottom, there is little concern over an economic slowdown…in fact, that’s just another buying opportunity for those that master the skill of short sale survival.

2. Secure Immediate Returns. Short sales afford a solid and immediate income stream. Why wait for an income to trickle in even while the entire economy teeters on the brink of uncertainty. Savvy investors expect investments to generate a return right away…not some promise of future profits. Once you earn a return then use the money as you see fit – fund your needs right now or reinvest for even greater profits. Think you can find this in most bonds, cd’s or money market accounts? Better think again. Aside from a token amount that justifies the use of the term “investment”, the reality is they can’t compete with short sale returns when it comes to generating immediate profits.

3. Appreciation. There is certainly nothing long with a long term earning potential …in fact, everyone needs to set aside something toward the future and rising appreciation values are still one of the most valuable forms of profits thanks to favorable Capital gains taxation. Don’t fall for the myth that you must choose between short term profit versus long term profits…short sales can do both when properly structured.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com
–

Forward this e-mail to your friends!  Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:  http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–> http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–> http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

********************************************************
eBay’s First Millionaire Unveils His New Technology …

I’m still surprised how drop-dead simple Adam’s

system is.  He’s got something special, when he can

whip up a profit in less than 60 seconds…

…and you can, too.  In fact, it’s so ridiculously

easy, I’m almost embarrassed to show it to you.

But you really should have a look for yourself, and

see this in action – and how it can make you moolah

faster than you can boot your computer this coming

TODAY at 3 PM ET, NOON PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/659919002

**********************************************************

Mortgage reform: What is to be done?

Over the past 18 months, the government has taken extraordinary steps to keep the housing market viable.  Home sales reversed their four-year descent, and prices stabilized.  So far.  But it has cost $126 billion to date, and the bill is still growing.  What’s next?  With the Obama administration largely mute on the issue, Congress will hold its first hearing today about how to restructure the mortgage system in the wake of the financial crisis.  “Don’t make the American taxpayer responsible for handling speculative situations or bubbles,” he said.  Rep. Spencher Bachus, ranking Republican on the committee, said in a subsequent CNBC interview that he would prefer government exit the industry entirely.  “We need to phase it out over time,” he said. “America is about competition and innovation. The federal model simply is not the efficient model.”  Working out a new system is likely to take years. For the time being, the market is still resting on three government pillars: Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Housing Administration.  And even staunch free-market advocates who want to get rid of Fannie and Freddie in the long run agree that the housing recovery remains too fragile for the government to step away anytime soon.  “The first priority is we have to keep financing homes, and we don’t have a way to do that without Fannie and Freddie,” said Peter Wallison, a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “We have to deal with the realities of where we are today.”  Since the government took over Fannie and Freddie, Obama officials have given few details on their long-term thinking, apart from saying that they want to delay a legislative proposal until next year.

DSNews.com – short sales now number 1

According to the latest Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, last month distressed properties – those involving homes acquired as part of a foreclosure or pre-foreclosure sale – accounted for 48.1% of the home purchase transactions tracked by the survey.  The February numbers were up significantly from the 37.3% level recorded as recently as November. It was also the highest distressed property market share seen since last July.  Stepped up government efforts, including temporary foreclosure moratoriums and a push to qualify more financially troubled homeowners for mortgage modifications, temporarily reduced the number of distressed properties coming on the housing market in the fall and much of this past winter. But now a growing number of distressed properties appear to be hitting the housing market.  There are three major types of distressed properties: damaged REO, move-in ready REO, and short sales. During the period from November to February, sales in all three categories rose. Damaged REO grew from 12.3% to 14.4%; move-in ready REO grew from 12.6% to 16.6%, and short sales grew from 12.4% to 17.1%.  “Short sales now account for the No. 1 category of distressed property,” commented Thomas Popik, research director for Campbell Surveys. “Losses on short sales are typically lower than for REO, and both lenders and the government are pushing programs to facilitate short sales. But as more and more people default or simply want to walk away from their properties, mortgage servicers are having trouble expeditiously processing these complicated transactions.”

More regulation needed

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said yesterday that better regulation is needed to dissuade financial market players from taking excessive risks after the “too big to fail problem” undermined discipline.  “The too big to fail problem has essentially removed much of that market discipline,” Plosser told an economic conference in Prague.  “We have to have ways of disciplining the actors in the marketplace so that they don’t take excessive risks, and in many cases the market can do that and do that quite effectively.  But when we protect creditors, when we protect people from failure, we encourage them to take risks.” Bernanke made clear at the weekend that large financial firms continued to play a crucial role in the global economy, and Plosser said different, but not necessarily more regulations were needed. “Government regulation and government oversight will never replace the marketplace officially … when there is regulation they will look for ways around that regulation in order to be successful,” he said.  “We will always as regulators be behind that curve. The only way we can be effective in protecting financial stability is to have regulations and rules that complement and encourage more market discipline, not replace it.”  If only things were as simple as adding more bureaucrats.

DSNews.com – seven more banks fail

The FDIC’s failed bank list jumped to 37 for the year after seven more community banks fell over the weekend – three in Georgia, and one each in Alabama, Minnesota, Ohio, and Utah.  Appalachian Community Bank in Ellijay, Georgia had 10 branch locations, with $1.01 billion in total assets and $917.6 million in deposits.  Bank of Hiawassee, based in Hiawassee, Georgia, ran five branches and had $377.8 million in assets and $339.6 million in deposits.  Century Security Bank in Duluth, Georgia operated two branches and had $96.5 million in assets and $94 million in deposits.  First Lowndes Bank in Fort Deposit, Alabama was a four-branch institution, with $137.2 million in assets and $131.1 million in deposits.  Minnesota’s State Bank of Aurora operated out of a single branch office. It had $28.2 million in assets and $27.8 million in deposits.  The single branch of American National Bank in Parma, Ohio had approximately $70.3 million in assets and $66.8 million in deposits.  Bank Corp. in Draper, Utah, had $1.6 billion in assets and $1.5 billion in total deposits.

Goodbye to Acorn

The Association of Community Organizers for Reform Now 

(ACORN) will no longer darken our doors nationally, after a meeting of the board over the weekend.  The fate of the local branches remains unclear. Although the majority will cease operation on April 1, as the non-profit continues to look for ways to settle its debts, some may rebrand themselves and operate around under a different name.  In an e-mail sent to reporters, ACORN said: “[We] have a great deal to be proud of — from promoting homeownership to helping rebuild New Orleans, from raising wages to winning safer streets, from training community leaders to promoting voter participation— ACORN members have worked hard to create stronger to communities, a more inclusive democracy, and a more just nation.”  ACORN began a turn for the worst when, in September, videos emerged online of ACORN workers allegedly giving some fraudulent advice to filmmaker James O’Keefe and his associate, Hannah Giles.  House Republicans last year began an investigation into how Acorn’s political arm was funded. Republican investigators on the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee determined that “there were no firewalls” between Acorn’s federally subsidized housing activities and its political wings, said Kurt Bardella, a spokesman Rep. Darrell Issa, the top Republican on the committee.  Officials of Acorn Housing, created by the main Acorn group in the mid-1980s, have said they had a separate board and budget, though the two organizations shared office space in some cities. Congress last year cut off federal funding for Acorn Housing. Federal money last year provided about three-quarters of the group’s budget of $24 million.  A large offshoot formerly known as Acorn Housing, which counsels low-income homeowners, has changed its name to Affordable Housing Centers of America and plans to continue operations.

Now on to our real estate investing educational section…

Fix that Foreclosure Next Door

Few things are more frustrating than trying to sell a home that sits beside a vacant foreclosure; would be buyers can be frightened away by overgrown lawns, vacant homes and a property that looks abandoned.  Here is what you can – and can’t – legally do to protect your own property values.

1. Buy the Property Yourself. Perhaps the first line of thought for a short sale investor is whether or not this represents another buying opportunity! In many cases the answer is a resounding yet. Even if you decide to purchase the property yourself, that doesn’t mean it can be ignored. Use the following tips to address urgent issues in order to maximize the successful sale of your current property in the interim.
2. Notify the Contact Person or Organization. Call the Clerk of the Court to find out who is currently responsible for the property; file a written request outlining the problem and specifying what needs to be performed in order to properly maintain the property. Not only is this helpful when trying to keep the yard and other environmental concerns looking their best but it may also place a bit of urgency under the file for those considering an eventual bid.
3. File Formal Complaints. If the property presents a potential health or safety issue…for example, an abandoned pool, contact the local public health unit to file a formal complaint. Be sure to follow up by sending a copy of the complaint to the property manager and/or bank responsible for the upkeep on the home.
4. Team-Up to Turn On the Heat. Put attention to the problem by collaborating with neighbors, the local Homeowners or Condo association and other interested stakeholders. If the HOA is part of the problem, be sure to file a formal written complaint with the association.
5. Do It Yourself. Although not advisable, in limited circumstances it is possible to take matters into your own hands in order to mow the yard or address other unusual situations. For example, unless otherwise posted, it is entirely legal to mow the yard or maintain the lawn in most areas of the nation; just be careful since an accident or injury is unlikely to be covered by homeowners insurance.  Remember,  never take it upon yourself to  enter a residence or dwelling even if the home is currently vacant.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com
–

Forward this e-mail to your friends!  Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:  http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–> http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–> http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

******************************************************

Woops!  We had a major gotowebinar meltdown yesterday … and

we apologize!  The technical glitches have been fixed and gotowebinar assures us it won’t happen again!  So we’re bringing back an Encore:

Short Sale Automation … The Paperless, Easy Solution.  Join us

tomorrow (Thursday) at 3 PM ET, NOON PST as we unveil a new

way to manage what used to be chaos:

 https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/231942947

******************************************************

11.3 million homes underwater 

According to DSNews.com a new study released by First American CoreLogic Tuesday, more than 11.3 million residential properties were in negative equity at the end of 2009. That equates to 24 percent of all homes in the United States with mortgages, up from 23 percent, or 10.7 million homes, at the end of last year’s third quarter. All told, the nation’s homeowners are a combined $801 billion underwater. First American says an additional 2.3 million mortgages were approaching negative equity at the end of last year, meaning they had less than five percent equity. Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for nearly 29 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide.  As of the end of last year, Nevada had the highest percentage negative equity, with 70 percent of all of its mortgage properties underwater. It was followed by Arizona (51 percent), Florida (48 percent), Michigan (39 percent) and California (35 percent).

Among the top five states, the average negative equity share was 42 percent, compared to 15 percent for the remaining states. In numerical terms, California (2.4 million) and Florida (2.2 million) had the largest number of negative equity mortgages accounting for 4.6 million, or 41 percent, of all negative equity loans.  “Negative equity is a significant drag on both the housing market and on economic growth. It is driving foreclosures and decreasing mobility for millions of homeowners,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist with First American CoreLogic. “Since we expect home prices to slightly increase during 2010, negative equity will remain the dominant issue in the housing and mortgage markets for some time to come.”

Freddie Mac loses $6.5 billion

Government-owned mortgage financing firm Freddie Mac lost $6.5 billion in the fourth quarter, up from a loss of $5.4 billion a year ago. The company lost $21.6 billion for the year, an improvement from 2008 losses of $50.1 billion.  Freddie said it ended the quarter with a positive net worth of $4.4 billion, which means that for the third straight quarter it did not need another injection of government cash. Net worth compares a company’s assets to the value of its liabilities.  A year ago Freddie needed $30.8 billion in federal cash as mounting foreclosures on the mortgages Freddie owns or guarantees hurt the company’s finances.  Since the start of the conservatorship Freddie has received $50.7 billion in taxpayer dollars, while Fannie has received $60.9 billion.  Together, Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee almost 31 million home loans worth about $5.5 trillion. That’s about half of all mortgages.  The two companies loosened their lending standards for borrowers during the real estate boom and are reeling from the consequences. Nearly 4% of Freddie’s borrowers have missed at least three payments.

Consumer confidence down

The Conference Board, a New York-based research group, said its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 46.0 in February from 56.5 in January.  According to a Briefing.com consensus survey, economists expected the index to fall slightly to 55.0 from 55.9. The index, which is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households, is closely monitored because consumer spending drives two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity.  The overall index remains at historically low levels and is the lowest since April 2009. A reading of above 90 indicates a stable economy, while 100 or greater is an indication of strong growth.  February’s present situation index, which indicates how consumers feel about current economic conditions, hit a 27 year low of 19.4, according to the Conference Board. That means that consumers feel things are worse now than they were during the throes of the financial crisis in the fall of 2008. Expectations for the future also took a turn for the worse in February. The expectation index, a measure of consumer outlook over the next few months, fell to 63.8 from an upwardly revised 77.3 in January. Only 16.7% of consumers expect to see an improvement in business conciliations over the next 6 months, down from 20.7%. Some 15.3% of those surveyed expect business conditions to get worse over the next six months.  The outlook for the labor market was even more bleak. The percentage of those who expect fewer jobs to become available jumped to 24.6% from 18.9% in January. And only 9.5% of those surveyed anticipated an increase in their incomes, compared to 11.0% in January.

Mortgage rates to rise?

The Fed has been buying mortgage-backed securities since late 2008. But next month it plans to finish its purchase of $1.25 trillion in mortgages, and that could be bad news. There is wide agreement that the removal of this support will mean higher mortgage rates, which could hit housing prices and sales hard. Some even worry that it could cause the broader economic recovery to stall.  The program was the largest single injection of cash into the economy by the Fed during the financial crisis, and it will be the longest-lasting source of funds as well. Even though the Fed intends to stop buying mortgages, few people expect that the central bank will start selling them to private investors any time in the next few years.  even if the Fed holds onto the mortgages it has already purchased, the act of no longer buying additional mortgages is likely to raise mortgage rates in the coming weeks.

Experts say a jump of at least a quarter to a half percentage point is likely.  San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen warned of higher rates in a speech Monday.  Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is likely to take questions about the Fed’s mortgage program when he testifies about economic conditions on Capitol Hill Wednesday and Thursday.  The worries about the Fed pulling back support for housing are compounded by the end of up to $8,000 in tax credits for home buyers. To qualify, buyers face an April 30 deadline to sign a sales contract.  Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, argues that the Fed’s program and tax credit for home buyers “ended the free fall in home prices.”  But he thinks that the removal of this support could mean that home prices could start to drop by as much as 1% a month again. He also thinks mortgage rates could climb by as much as a percentage point in the coming months.

Banks not lending

While top-tier banks are recovering at a faster clip, last year the rest of the industry posted their sharpest decline in lending since 1942, suggesting that the industry’s continued slide is making it harder for the economy to recover.  According to a quarterly report from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, banks fighting for survival, especially those plagued by losses on commercial real estate, are less willing to extend loans, siphoning credit from businesses and consumers.  FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said banks are “bumping along the bottom of the credit cycle” and that the number of bank failures in 2010 will likely eclipse the 140 recorded last year.  The struggling U.S. banking industry remains a problem for policy makers eager for banks to lend again. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill and administration officials have pushed banks to lend, particularly in light of the billions in taxpayer aid injected into the financial industry over the past two years. Banking groups and their members counter that they’re under pressure from regulators to be more prudent and that demand from struggling consumers and businesses isn’t there.  Initiatives such as the Obama administration’s $30 billion small-business lending program will rely on banks making loans at a time when many of those same firms are wrestling with a rising tide of commercial real estate problems or being told to add to their reserves by regulators.  The FDIC said that the decline in loan balances in the quarter hit all major categories—from construction to commercial loans and residential mortgages—with the exception of credit card loans.  It remains unclear whether the sharp decline in loans outstanding stems from banks’ tightening standards and a fear of lending or from weak demand from potential borrowers spooked by the downturn. Another cause could be banks actively reducing the size of their loan portfolios, creating a natural decline.

MBA – mortgage applications down

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 19, 2010 decreased 8.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7.3% compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index decreased 8.9% from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7.3% from one week earlier, putting the index at its lowest level since May 1997. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.6% compared with the previous week and was 13.4% lower than the same week one year ago.  The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1.6%.  The four week moving average is down 2.1% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 3.2% for the Refinance Index.  The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 68.1% of total applications from 69.3% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 4.7% from 4.4% of total applications from the previous week.

NAR – No commercial real estate recovery before 2011

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), fallout from the recent recession continued to negatively impact commercial real estate sectors in the fourth quarter, and things are not going to get better anytime soon.  “With the job market expected to turn for the better later this year, we’ll see rising demand for office and warehouse space, but that isn’t likely before 2011,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. Yun notes that commercial vacancy rates remain high in most market areas and are depressing rents.  The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of more than 700 local market experts, suggests a flattening level of business activity in upcoming quarters with 55% of members expecting the market to improve in the second quarter.  The SIOR index rose 0.2%age point to 35.5 in the fourth quarter, compared with a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace. This is the first gain following 11 consecutive quarterly declines. Although some indicators show that a decline in commercial property values is beginning to flatten, 86% of respondents report prices are below replacement costs.  Nearly nine in 10 survey participants said new commercial development is virtually nonexistent in their market areas, and rent concessions are reported almost everywhere.

Now on to our real estate investing educational section…

Fiscal Survival of the Fittest

Survival of the fittest applies to economics as well as biology – in fact, some would argue the concept is better applied to the financial arena than any other area of study. Unfortunately, it’s a fact few Americans want to face head on…it goes against the steady diet of “American ingenuity” and the (false) belief that any child born in the good old USA can grow up to be anything they want. While there are exceptions to every rule, survival of the fittest is an economic trend currently undergoing the equivalent of an ice-age extinction as one era gives rise to an entirely new one. Research by consulting firm McKinsey found a few unsettling statistics that demonstrate the depth of the problem:

Over 70 percent of currently employed Americans work in jobs for which there is low or declining demand. This includes both blue collar and white collar. Competition for jobs that cannot be shipped overseas (healthcare for example) has created high competition which is driving down wages and promoting part-time, per diem and other “job sharing” situations.

Mainstream stores are doing double-takes as consumers shift spending habits. Not only are brick and mortar stores under heavy competition from online retailers like Amazon but the bleak economy is finally taking a toll. Violating one of the core marketing principles ‘never undercut your own product’, heavy weight’s ranging from Proctor & Gamble to Macy’s are rolling out discount versions of their more expensive popular items. Cost of Tide got you down? Don’t worry, you can now buy Tide Basic…a discount version. Research shows 1/2 of Americans have already reduced spending and 1/3 plan to do so permanently with 18 percent of consumer switching from name brands to generics in the past two years alone.

So, how are Americans spending their money both today and into the near future?

1. Nearly 34 percent of the average household income goes toward housing. Expect this trend to continue as people downsize into affordable housing options.

2. Just over 19 percent goes toward entertainment and/or miscellaneous items…however, as a discretionary item this is subject to volatility.

3. Roughly 17 percent goes toward transportation – a number experts expect to hold steady as people opt for more affordable options.

4. Just under 13 percent goes toward food; a necessity to be sure but one that is subject to “replacement” purchases as people opt for hamburger instead of steak during tough times.

5. Approximately 11 percent on retirement and personal insurance.

6. Nearly 6 percent on healthcare.

Even a precursory look at where Americans spend their money tells the average investor where to spend theirs…housing, entertainment, transportation, food, financial products and healthcare. Those are the big six that run the American economy. Now stop and consider which are available to the average “little guy” investor…stocks and bonds for healthcare, insurance and finance have been decimated in recent years. The auto industry? Please! Now that’s it’s been nationalized you can count on the same efficiency that brought you the driver license office to run the auto industry. Food is notoriously volatile and forget direct intervention unless you have an unusual level of gardening know how. No, the answer remains the same today as it did 100 years ago…real estate. It’s not easily outsourced, it’s not subject to the market manipulations of stocks and bonds nor is it entirely dependent upon your ability to work yourself into an early grave. It simply requires a willingness to adapt to the new economic environment like all other species that learn to thrive or barely survive.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
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http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
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http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

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Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
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us and our market…
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About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com
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Foreclosures down – but not for long

Foreclosure rates fell in January compared with the previous month, but remained sharply higher than a year ago, according to a new report by the foreclosure tracking Web site RealtyTrac.  The month-to-month decrease in foreclosures is most likely a temporary improvement, said Rick Sharga, vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac, and has to do with the holiday season.  “Because of the holiday season, offices that do the processing are closed,” said Sharga. “The drop in foreclosures [in January] is something we’ve seen a couple of years now. I don’t think this the beginning of a downward trend.”  The number of Americans receiving foreclosure notices was down 9.7 percent in January from December 2009, but 15 percent higher than last January. In all, 315,716 properties generated a foreclosure notice. That means one in every 409 homes in America received a foreclosure notice. (Foreclosure notices are defined as a default notice, bank repossession or auction sale notice.)  Real estate Web site Zillow.com also released a report last night that found one in five US mortgages were “underwater” during the fourth quarter. The ten states with the highest foreclosure rates were little changed from the previous month. According to the RealtyTrac report, Nevada remains No. 1, with one in every 95 properties in the state getting a foreclosure notice, even though the state showed a 18 percent decrease in foreclosures from the previous year.  Arizona ranked second with one in every 129 households receiving a notice, followed by California (one in 187 households), Florida (one in 187 households) and Utah (one in every 231 households).  South Dakota had the lowest rate, with one in every 25,820 properties receiving a foreclosure notice.

Jobless claims drop

According to the Labor Department, there were 440,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended Feb. 6, down 43,000 from a revised 483,000 the previous week.  Economists were expecting initial claims to drop to 465,000, according to a consensus estimate from Briefing.com.  The 4-week moving average of initial claims, which smoothes out volatility in the measure, was 468,500. That’s down 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 469,500. The government said 4,538,000 people filed continuing claims in the week ended Jan. 30, the most recent data available. That’s down 79,000 from the preceding week’s revised 4,617,000 claims.  Economists were expecting continuing claims to have declined 2,000 to 4,600,000.  The 4-week moving average of continuing claims was 4,603,500, a drop of 17,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 4,621,250.  As usual, many economists say the decline in continuing claims reflects a growing number of filers who have dropped off the jo  bless rolls into extended unemployment benefits.

Commercial real estate is the next crisis

The Congressional Oversight Panel said in a report that mounting commercial real estate losses could endanger the banking system and thwart economic recovery.  A total of $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will require refinancing in the next four years, and more than half of those loans are underwater, written for properties whose value has dropped like a rock.  The expected losses when loans go bad could hit between $200 billion to $300 billion and threaten 3,000 small and mid-size banks with a disproportionate share of commercial real estate assets on their books, according to the panel.  The report is intended to “wave a red flag” to the White House and Congress that the commercial real estate loan market is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.  “We’re at a point where even as TARP is ramping down another major challenge in our economy is ramping up,” said Elizabeth Warren, the oversight panel’s chairwoman. “We need to start now, before the system is  on the brink of collapse to figure out a plan,” she added.  The panel’s research found that 2,988 banks are heavily invested — with more than three times their assets tied up — in commercial real estate loans. Of that number, 2,500 banks each have less than $1 billion in assets.  The panel offers a number of possible solutions for policymakers to head off a commercial real estate crisis, including stress tests for banks, injecting capital into these small banks, buying their toxic assets, or guaranteeing loans.

White House Council of Economic Advisers issues annual report

The annual report by the White House Council of Economic Advisers will be delivered to Congress today, and will look at the actions President Obama took to deal with the recession over the past year.  The report will examine the current economic crisis, including the steps the government took to shore up the financial and housing markets. It also looks at the need to reduce the federal government’s deficit and to tackle long-standing problems such as health care costs, climate change and living standards.  Obama has made job creation his central focus in his second year in office. He has recently traveled the country promoting tax credits for small businesses, the source of many new hires. And on Tuesday, he brought together congressional leaders to push for a bipartisan agreement on legislation to boost hiring.  Council Chairwoman Christina Romer expects an average of 95,000 jobs a month to be created in 2010 and the nation’s GDP to expand at a 2.5% rate.  Romer called the report “a page-turner.” Good to hear – if it’s like everything else coming out of the White House these days it’ll be an enthralling work of fiction.

NAR – Home sales surge

According to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sales increased from the third quarter in 48 states and the District of Columbia; 32 states saw double-digit gains. Year-over-year sales were higher in 49 states and D.C.; all but three states had double-digit annual increases.  Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, jumped 13.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1 of 6.03 million in the fourth quarter from 5.29 million in the third quarter, and are 27.2 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in the fourth quarter of 2008. Distressed property accounted for 32 percent of fourth quarter transactions, down from 37 percent a year earlier.  Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, said the first-time home buyer tax credit was the dominant factor. “The surge in home sales was driven by buyers responding strongly to the tax credit combined with record low mortgage interest rates,” he said. “With inventory levels t  rending down over the past 18 months, we expect broadly balanced housing market conditions in much of the country by late spring with more areas showing higher prices.”  NAR President Vicki Cox Golder , owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said near-term market conditions will remain favorable. “Mortgage interest rates are expected to trend up later this year, but right now we have very good conditions with steadying home prices and favorable inventory in most areas, especially in the higher price ranges,” she said.

Double dip in house prices?

According to data compiled by Zillow, a real estate sales and data services provider, there are signs that the feared “double-dip” in house prices may have taken hold of US housing prices in as many as one in five major housing markets.  While some individual markets have experienced a bottoming out and increase in prices, 29 of the 143 markets Zillow tracks is now showing signs of a possible double dip in home values. In those markets, home values have flattened or have begun to decrease again after showing at least five consecutive monthly increases during 2009 — what Zillow called early signs of what could a double dip.  The Zillow Home Value Index put the national median price at $186,200 in Q409, a 5% decrease from Q408. Compared to Q309, prices declined 0.5% during the last quarter of 2009. The index is a measure of median home values of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, both on the market and not for sale. Q409 marked the 12th consecuti  ve quarter of year-over-year declines, Zillow said.  “The good news is that, for those markets that will see a double dip in home values before reaching a definitive bottom, this second dip will not be a return to the magnitude of depreciation seen earlier, but rather will look more like a modest aftershock of the earlier downturn,” said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries.

Now on to our real estate investing educational section…

The Return Attribution of Real Estate

More money has been made in real estate than all industrial investments combined.

— Carnegie

Traditional investors often overlook real estate in preference to stocks or bonds but even a precursory examination of the return attribution of real estate provides sufficient evidence to support the inclusion of real estate in even the most conservative portfolio. In fact, there is a large body of evidence that demonstrates a 15 percent investment of real estate considerably reduces total portfolio risk…a fact not lost on large retirement funds who have historically invested between 15 to 20 percent into real estate. The return attribution of real estate contains both unique and common characteristics when compared to other investment vehicles each of which will be detailed below:

Capital Appreciation – Without a doubt, capital appreciation combined with leverage has made well maintained real estate a favorite among investors for generations. The long term growth in value is similar to that typically associated with equity asset classes but with increased use of leverage.

Bond-Like – Persistent and predictable cash flow from rental real estate mimics interest paid on bond coupons or similar investments. Investors seeking safety coupled with long term income often look to real estate in order to diversify from bonds or annuities.

Performance & Credit Profile – This frequently overlooked aspect of real estate investment cannot be underestimated in importance especially in a tight credit market; real estate has a credit profile much like the credit rating of a bond. Residential versus commercial holdings and the quality of the location, tenant etc all enter into the credit profile of the property. Savvy short sale investors learn how to maximize the credit profile in order to increase leverage and overall return for the entire portfolio.

Externalities – These are outside influences that impact the desirability and value of a property. Common examples include physical attributes unique to each property, zoning, etc… Even during the most dramatic economic decline, these attributes are what make some properties retain (or increase)  in value even as others rapidly lose valu

Tax Benefits – Real estate enjoys very favorable tax benefits including the use of depreciation, capital gains, tax exempt status, the ability to sell/transfer some tax benefits and other incentives designed to maximize investment potential.

Inflation Hedge – Real estate has historically outperformed nearly all other asset classes during period of inflation. Not only does it tend to act as a hedge against inflation but it tends to hold value during deflationary periods as well. Once the “bubble” has popped, real estate reverts back to its former norm as consumers reign in spending and focus on the basics of shelter, food and medicine.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.