Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin November 30 , 2010
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Home prices down more than expected
The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.8 percent in September from August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a decline of 0.3 percent. S&P, which publishes the indexes, also said home prices in the 20 cities index rose 0.6 percent from September 2009, slower than the 1.1 percent expected. The index has risen 5.9 percent from their April 2009 bottom. But it remains nearly 28.6 percent below its July 2006 peak. Prices in San Francisco and Los Angeles, which had been increasing, both fell in August from July. Washington and Las Vegas were the only metro areas to post gains in monthly prices. Prices rose in many cities from April through July, mostly boosted by government tax credits which have since expired. Job worries and record high foreclosures are dampening buyer demand and weighing on prices. The national quarterly index, which measures home prices in the nine U.S. census regions, dropped 2 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter.
Cyber Monday sales up 20%
Cyber Monday is the first Monday after Thanksgiving and is a relatively recent retail phenomenon, compared to Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Many retailers traditionally open their doors at midnight on Black Friday, attracting shoppers with heavily advertised discounts. Cyber Monday online sales in the U.S. were up 19.4% in 2010 compared to last year, reported Coremetrics. More people were shopping online and the individual orders were larger than last year. Coremetrics said the average order value on Cyber Monday was $194.89, an increase of 8.3% from last year’s average of $180.03. Cyber Monday sales also outdid this year’s Black Friday online sales by 31.1%, according to Coremetrics. Shoppers also used mobile devices to make their purchases, with nearly 4% of all Cyber Monday shoppers using smartphones and other devices.
NAR – Commercial real estate flattening
The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors, in its (SIOR) Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of more than 400 local market experts,1 shows vacancy rates are slowly improving, but rents continue to be soft with elevated levels of subleasing space on the market. The SIOR index, measuring the impact of 10 variables, rose 1.6 percentage points to 42.6 in the third quarter, but remains well below a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace. This is the fourth straight quarterly improvement following almost three years of decline. The last time the commercial market was in equilibrium at the 100 level was in the third quarter of 2007; the index now matches where it was at the beginning of 2009. Fifty-nine percent of respondents expect improvements in the office and industrial sectors in the current quarter. Commercial real estate development continues at stagnant levels with little investment activity, but is beginning to pick up in many parts of the country.
Office Markets: Vacancy rates in the office sector, where a large volume of sublease space remains on the market, are forecast to decline from 16.7 percent in the current quarter to 16.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, but with very little change during in the first half of the year. Industrial Markets: Industrial vacancy rates are projected to decline from 13.9 percent currently to 13.2 percent in the closing quarter of 2011. Retail Markets: Retail vacancy rates are expected to change little, declining from 13.1 percent in the fourth quarter of this year to 13.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011. Multifamily Markets: The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is expected to get a boost from growth in household formation. Multifamily vacancy rates are forecast to decline from 6.4 percent in the current quarter to 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011.
Unemployment benefits dry up
The deadline to file for extended unemployment insurance is officially Nov. 30, so many jobless have already filed their last claim for benefits. Since lawmakers aren’t moving to extend the deadline anytime soon, many more unemployed Americans will run out of their extended federal benefits in coming weeks. About 2 million people are expected to stop receiving checks in December. Federal jobless payments, which last up to 73 weeks, kick in after the state-funded 26 weeks of coverage expire. These federal benefits are divided into four tiers of emergency unemployment compensation, which last between six and 20 weeks, followed by up to five months of extended benefits. The jobless must apply each time they move into a new tier.
Unemployed Americans who’ve just exhausted their state benefits are already blocked from entering the federal system in most states. They would have had to file their initial federal claim by this past weekend. Those already in a federal emergency benefits system will not be able to move to the next tier after this coming weekend. However, they can continue to collect the benefits available in their current level. So those who just entered a tier could continue receiving benefits for awhile, but those who are near the end of their tier will see payments dry up sooner. Many of the jobless who are in the last stage of the federal safety net — the up to five months of extended benefits — will stop getting checks this month no matter when they started this level. That’s because the federal government will stop fully funding this stage after Nov. 30.
Olick – will rising rents spur home ownership?
A positive in the commercial real estate sector may be a sign of better things to come in residential housing down the road, or that’s the theory. “As rents rise and the cost of home ownership declines, owning is becoming more attractive,” notes California real estate analyst John Burns. Apartment demand is rising, and supply has fallen to low levels. In fact, net absorption nationally increased by 84,000 units in Q3, which pushed vacancy rates down to 7.2 percent, according to Reis. Rents didn’t grow by a lot nationally, up just 0.6 percent, but in larger markets rents are making bigger gains. Is that really enough to push people back to home ownership? Well, on the one hand, mortgage applications to purchase a home jumped last week, despite rising rates. “The increase in purchase applications last week aligns with other incoming data suggesting that consumers are feeling somewhat more confident with their financial situation,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. There was also the small issue of a shortened previous week due to Veteran’s Day, but the Mortgage Bankers Association’s purchase index is at its highest level now since the expiration of the home buyer tax credit. Still, one week does not a trend make. […]
Now for our real estate education section…
Money Madness
When it comes to investing it seems nearly everyone either “knows someone” in the business or has read about a “hot tip”…odd that more people are not millionaires. Of course, this begs the question of who and where to get reliable investment information and how to evaluate the source. Today we will spend a bit of time comparing various venues in order to identify the good, bad and downright ugly truth about financial advice.
Mainstream Media
A surprising number of people still follow the advice of mainstream media including major news channels, magazines and other shows. Yes, the same people that brought you “The Simpsons” are considered reputable outlets for investing…in some circles. The problem is not actually the source but rather the sponsors. Mainstream media makes money by selling advertising so the first thing any potential investor should ask is “who is the sponsor?”. If you enjoy listening to a famous “celebrity investor” then ask yourself what they do for a living…talk radio or real estate? Stock investing or dancing with stars? Just because they are well known does not mean they know what they are talking about.
Guru
Closely related is the tendency for many investors (including short sale real estate investors) to follow the advice of a guru or well known personality. However, it is important to differentiate someone with wealth from someone that made their wealth by investing. Timing is also important. Even though someone made a lot of money doing something in the past does not mean they know how to make it work for them now. Search for someone with a proven track record of success who is still in the business today!
Academic Research
Oh yes, it is impressive looking but do all those charts and citations really make it more reliable? It really depends. The first step is to determine who sponsored the research…although a bit different than media sponsorship or advertising, research – even academic research – is often sponsored by a corporate or for-profit entity. The type of question asked, statistics utilized and comparisons made may all dramatically influence outcomes. Examine the assumptions being made, the underwriters and the supporting relationships carefully. It’s not a bad idea to check the net worth of the main author either.
Bloggers
Bloggers, Facebook and other social media websites have become hot sources for investment information but they are not all created equal. Just like a website, anyone can write nearly anything. It’s important to see a track record of success – not just thoughts on paper. Find out the credentials and network of the author to see if they put their money where their mouth is.
See you at the top !
Chris McLaughlin
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Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2010.
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About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.
* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
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