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REITs have a fantastic second quarter

by Chris McLaughlin on July 1, 2009

Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, July 1, 2009

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

* Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinhris

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REITs have a fantastic second quarter

Real estate investment trusts (REITs), which were written off by analysts not so long ago, had a blockbuster second quarter this year. The Dow Jones Equity All REIT Total Return Index, which tracks 114 publicly traded REIT stocks, rose 28.9% in the April-June quarter, the biggest quarterly gain since the index debuted in 1989. Just 5 REITs posted losses while 7 firms posted returns in excess of 100%. The spectacular performance signals a change in investor sentiment. “The fear of REITs going to zero is clearly far less today,” said Alexander Goldfarb, an associate director at Sandler O’Neill + Partners LP. Since March this year, REITs have raised over $13 billion from investors. Jon Bortz, chief executive of LaSalle Hotel Properties, said, “We’d been through a pretty challenging period over the last 12 months. The recovery had to do with belief that the world was not going to come to an end.” REITs have restructured their capital structure by reducing debt in their balance sheet. Some analysts believe REITs have to reduce their debt further if they have to be viable in the long-term. Sectorally, hotel REITs rose 73.8% in the second quarter, regional mall REITs rose 59.3%, retail REITs rose 43.2%, and manufactured homes rose 4.9%.

Construction defects hit the housing sector

constructionA large number of homeowners across the country are confronting defects in their homes largely on account of construction faults. As the housing sector expanded aggressively in the last couple of decades, the industry has been besieged with a shortage of skilled manpower and quality construction materials. In addition, tardiness of municipalities in inspecting and certifying homes contributed to the problem. Criterium Engineers, a building-inspection firm, has estimated that 17% of newly built houses in 2006 had at least two significant defects, up from 15% in 2003. Paul Amirata, vice president of claims at Axa Insurance, says construction-defect claims being filed are “pretty severe in terms of the total damage alleged.” The drop in real-estate values has exacerbated the problem. Those with faulty houses find that repairs often cost more than the value of the home. In addition, many do not have the equity to leverage in order to pay for repairs. In case of house defects what is the remedy for homeowners? The National Association of Home builders believes litigation is an inefficient way of resolving issue related to construction defects and says homebuyers should consider using “alternative dispute resolution including mandatory, binding arbitration in consumer contracts.”

Home loan modifications rise in the first quarter

homeloanmodsAccording to a report released by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision, the number of loan modifications rose in the first quarter of this year. The report also said there was an increase in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in the first quarter. John Dugan, Comptroller of the Currency, said: “While I’m very concerned about the rise in delinquent mortgages and foreclosure actions, the shift in emphasis by servicers to more sustainable, payment-reducing modifications is a positive step that should show significant benefits in the coming months.” Servicers carried out 185,156 loan modifications in the first quarter; this is a rise of 55% from the previous quarter. Seriously delinquent mortgages – loans that are 60 days or more past due – rose 9% from the previous quarter. Delinquencies in prime loans increased by over 20% from the previous quarter and foreclosures stood at 2.5% of all serviced loans. Despite the bad news, analysts believe the loan modification program introduced by the Obama administration is gaining traction and will benefit a large number of homeowners in the coming months.

Consumer confidence drops in June

consumerconfidencedropsThe Conference Board (TCB), an industry group, said consumer confidence dropped in June after rising in May. TCB’s index of consumer attitudes declined to 49.3 in June from a reading of 54.8 in May. The Present Situation Index, which measures overall consumer sentiments toward the present economic situation, dropped from 29.7 in May to 25.8 in June. Millan Mulraine, economics strategist with TD Securities, said: “On balance, this was a disappointing report as it has clearly bucked the trend of improving consumer sentiments in the past few months. Moreover, with the details of the report uniformly weak, we are left with the impression that this was an outright slump in consumer confidence.” Among the consumers who participated in the survey conducted to gather information on consumer sentiment in the current quarter, 4.6% said they had plans to buy an automobile within 6 months; in contrast to 5.7% in the previous quarter. Those with plans of buying a home dropped from 2.8% to 2.7% while those planning to buy a major appliance dropped to 26.5% from 29.2%. Inflation rate expectations for 12 months rose to 5.9% from 5.6% in May. “Consumers are making a more somber and accurate assessment of the economy and their own financial position,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia. “Consumers may be thinking less bad is not good enough.”

Wall Street firms looking to sublet office space

During boom time, financial firms took office space as though there was no tomorrow. In the current slowdown many firms are giving up or looking at subletting excess space.  According to real-estate brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle, 8.9 million square feet of high-quality, class “A” office space is available in midtown Manhattan for sublet. John Goodkind, a broker with Newmark Knight Frank, says about 10% of the high-end commercial space, amounting to 380,000 square feet, have been given up by financial firms in Greenwich. Analysts say it is a classic buy-high, sell-low situation.

officesubletNew York private-equity firm Quadrangle Group has offered a three-year sublease for 10,000 square feet at $85 a square foot, a discount of 32% to the 2006 rate. Taconic Capital Advisors has offered 50,000 square feet near Central Park at $80 a square foot, denoting a 22% discount to the rate being paid by Taconic. Hedge funds and other firms, when they sublet space, are likely to lose millions of dollars over the life of the building lease. Buyers looking for space are getting great bargains. Brian Rance, U.S. managing partner of law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, says, “It’s a complete buyer’s market.”

Now on to our real estate investor education section…

Sellers – Learn how to Sell Your Home Fast

Whether you are a short sale investor, broker or homeowner these tips for making your home sell fast are sure to streamline the process. Professionals in the field can create a checklist for potential sellers or homeowners can use the following steps to take matter into their own hands and attract legitimate short sale offers with quick closing times.

Begin preparing the paperwork as soon as possible. Your agent or short sale investor is often able to help. Typically you will need the following items:

Hardship letter

Tax Returns

Bank Records

HOA, Property Taxes and other pertinent outlays associated with the property.

Copy of Mortgage, liens or other monies owned on the property.

Put out the word. Let everyone know you need to sell the home – fast. Use works like ‘motivated seller’ or “distressed homeowner” to indicate a willingness to work with buyers able to provide a fast closing.

Contact the lender to let them know your situation.

Perform maintenance and upkeep as you are able. If finances are an issue, try to make the property appear as attractive and well maintained as possible.

Create a list of what you need the most from this deal. For example, if you need a fast closing avoid bankruptcy then say-so when speaking with the agent or potential short sale buyers. If you need a new place to live or rent after closing then mention that as well. Often these items can become part of the negotiation process to help make the deal work.

Identify personal property prior to accepting a final offer. If you intend to take the appliances be sure to specify this in advance. Likewise, it’s important to bring all items that will remain with the home (good and bad) as well as be removed from the home prior to entertaining offers.

Make a folder of all contact information and paperwork. Keep it accessible when speaking with real estate agents or potential buyers. Remember, everything must be in writing and never sign something you don’t fully understand.

Avoid entertaining multiple offers all at once. While this might seem like a good way to increase the odds of a successful sale, it often creates unnecessary delays that could result in your losing the home or growing farther into debt. Instead, ask to see proof of financing or other indication of a quick closing.

Keep it realistic. Even the most reputable short sale offer is likely to be somewhat slow given the large number of sales currently going through the system. A lot of sellers are searching for solid short sale offers so increase your odds by responding quickly to all inquiries and remaining patient throughout the process.

Start Early. The sooner you start the better the odds of selling your property before it becomes critical or urgent.

See you at the top!


Chris McLaughlin

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

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Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute 2009.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com


Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting nearly

450 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* Add me on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/mclaughlinchris

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Mortgage Applications Slip 16.2% But REITs Recover

by Chris McLaughlin on June 3, 2009

Mortgage Applications Slip 16.2% But REITs Recover

Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, June 3, 2009


http://www.shortsalesrichesturbocharged.com


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Mortgage applications decline 16.2% in the week ended May 29

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 16.2% to 658.7 from 786.0 a week earlier. Refinancing in mortgages decreased to 62.4% of total applications from 69.3% the previous week. Analysts are concerned about the negative impact of the recent rise in mortgage rates on the housing market. GMAC, a large financial services firm, has stated that the home loan volume at GMAC is now about 75% lower than a few months ago when mortgage rates hit their lows. MBA, in a separate report released yesterday, reported an increase in commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquencies during the first quarter of 2009. Jamie Woodwell, Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research at MBA, said the delinquency rates on commercial and multifamily mortgages “are all now at levels higher than at any time since the 2001 recession.” Economists believe that housing market has to stabilize for the economy to recover, and for housing market to stabilize, interest rates have to stay low.

Real Estate Investment Trusts show signs of recovery

Real Estate Investment Trusts, commonly known as REITs, are funds that make investments in the real estate sector. REITs, which did extremely well some years ago when the sector boomed, have been languishing in the last two years. In 2007, the All REIT Index, an index of REITs, fell 17.83%, and in 2008, the index dropped 37.34%. In March this year, the index rose 4.41% and in April the index rose about 28%. Analysts think that the rise in the index is a sign of optimism in investor expectations. According to Capital Analytics, a firm that follows real estate trends, publicly traded REITs have, over the past several weeks, raised more than $10 billion in equity, demonstrating that REITs are attracting investor interest. As the economy recovers, prospects of inflation loom large. Real estate is seen as an effective hedge against inflation, as property values rise. Peter Slatin, editorial director at Real Capital, says investors in REITs are “buying the prospect of recovery” and REITs are “poised to weather the storm.”

Demand for TALF funding grows

The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), announced by the Federal Reserve (Fed) last November, is aimed at lowering cost of consumer credit. Investor demand for TALF funds rose 8% to $1.5 billion in June from May and up 145% from March when the first round of TALF funding happened. The program has taken time to take-off for a variety of reasons including investors worrying about the prospect of scrutiny by the government, and complexity in paperwork involved in receiving funding. Brian Loo, portfolio manager at Metropolitan West Asset Management, says the three-year, non-recourse funding offered by TALF is attractive to investors. Auto and credit card loans are the biggest categories of consumer credit, and according to Michael Feroli, economist at JP Morgan, “that’s what the program is hoping to tackle.” The Fed estimates that the program could grow to $1 trillion. The next phase of TALF funding starts in mid-June when investors are expected to apply for newly issued commercial mortgage-backed securities.

Companies aren’t yet in a mood to hire

With economists tracking unemployment data to look for signs of economic recovery, findings from a recent employment survey are not very encouraging. According to a semi-annual survey conducted by Dice Holdings, a provider of specialized career websites and career fairs, most of the employers in the U.S. do not expect to see an increase in hiring this year. The survey found only 10% of the employers expecting to see a recovery in hiring in the second half of this year. About 31% said they expected to see layoffs in the next 6 months. Employers said they have seen significant increase in the number of applicants in the recent past. Once the economic recovery begins, there is a 3-6-month lag before hiring revives. Scot Melland, the chief executive officer of Dice Holdings, said, “Our customers are telling us they feel better about the environment but that has yet to translate into a change in recruiting budgets.”

Banks asked to raise capital before repaying TARP funds

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is asking banks to raise specific amounts of capital before repaying funds they took under the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). Some analysts believe that the Fed is applying a more stringent set of standards for measuring the health of banks now, than it did about a month ago when the results of the stress tests indicated that many of the banks would be able to withstand economic slump. Clearly, the Fed is concerned with the prospect of banks’ capitalization becoming inadequate due to repayment of TARP funds. Banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, and American Express Co. have been asked by the Fed to raise capital. Lawrence Kaplan, a former attorney at the Office of Thrift Supervision, says, “The Fed doesn’t want to be criticized for allowing people to repay this and then having the banks say we just don’t have the capital to make loans now. It’s an exercise to make sure that no one is going to get criticized for allowing these redemptions.” The Fed is likely to release a list of banks which have been granted approval to repay TARP funds, next week. Banks feel that the conditions that come with TARP funding are onerous, and have expressed their desire to repay it at the earliest. Earlier this week, Jamie Dimon, the chief executive officer of JP Morgan, in a mock letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, wrote, “Dear Timmy, we are happy to be able to pay back the $25 billion you lent us. We hope you enjoyed the experience as much as we did.”

Now on to our real estate investor educational section…

What’s Your Short Sale Personality Type?

Psychologists have long known seemingly insignificant variations among different personality types often lead to profound differences in the way individuals take part in the game of life. Everything from love to investment styles correspond to your interest, reactions, values, motivation and skills. Find out your short sale personality type by taking the quiz below…

When purchasing short sale properties, do you prefer to focus on your own evaluation of the property (an introspective position) or how the property is perceived by others (an extroverted position)?

When performing real estate related research do you prefer to focus on the available standard information created by other experts such as appraisers, brokers etc (sensing) or do you prefer to interpret and add meaning from your own “gut feeling” (intuition)?

When working with potential clients, bankers or others during the course of conducting short sales do you prefer to take things at face value (thinking) or try to understand the person and motivation (feeling)?

When negotiating or taking care of other business aspects do you prefer to stick to the original plan of action (judging) or do you like to stay open to new ideas and offers (perceiving)?

By answering the four questions above you should now have a basic understanding of your short sale personality type that falls into one of the categories below:

ISTJ: Orderly, traditional investor that likes consistency. Focus upon long term growth potential or tried and true measures.

ISTP: Tolerant, flexible…enjoys order but able to act quickly and decisively when need for speed arises. Focus upon marginal properties.

ESTP: Learn by doing, spontaneous and energetic. Focus upon working with a mentor to channel your natural hands-on approach and enthusiasm.

ESTJ: Decisive, highly organized and systematic. Focus upon establishing an investment process that works for you to obtain the best results.

ISFJ: Friendly, loyal and responsible. Focus on building relationships to obtain the best results. Sellers, clients and even bankers enjoy working with you!

ISFP: Kind, friendly and typically try to avoid disagreeable situations or people. Focus on creating a win-win situation that you and others feel good about.

ESFP: You love life and enjoy learning new things and meeting new people. Focus on exploring new investment potentials that create a challenging yet invigorating environment.

ESFJ: Your natural warmth and dedication make you enjoyable to work with. Focus on keeping short sales and investments down to business rather than only forming friendships.

INFJ: Organized, decisive and typically following a clear vision of your own creation. Focus on creating a meaningful outcome you are able to believe in for yourself and others.

INFP: Idealistic, loyal and understanding you tend to follow your own unique set of values in everything you do. Focus on establishing boundaries for investments that reflect your inner life.

ENFP: Warm, enthusiastic and imaginative you see possibilities that others miss. Focus on finding short sale opportunities in unattractive properties that others are unable to appreciate.

ENFJ: Your emotional IQ tends to be higher than average and you are often able to inspire others. Focus on working with problematic people that others avoid. They will not be a match for your personality type and often need the business!

INTJ: Your mind is your best asset followed only by your competence and creativity. Focus on complex properties or transactions that requires expert problem solving ability.

INTP: Logical with an unusual ability to focus and problem solve, you may be

voted most likely to imitate “Spock” by friends and family. Focus upon the financial aspects of your investments and leave the less desirable creative or mundane tasks to others.

ENTP: Alert with a tendency toward being outspoken, you are resourceful but bored by routines. Focus on acquiring properties and closing deals while allowing others to handle the more dull details of your investments.

ENTJ: Decisive with a tendency to rapidly assume a leadership position, your vision for long term planning and problem solving is strengthened by your love of reading and information. Focus upon putting the information into practice to avoid the constant collection of information without the corresponding sense of action.

See you at the top!


Chris McLaughlin

http://www.shortsalesrichesturbocharged.com

PS:

The Launch of the Year is coming to an end … find

out tonight what all the fuss is about at 8:30 PM ET, 5:30

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Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute 2009.
All Rights Reserved.


Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog


About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner and Supervising Broker of one of Florida’s
largest Real Estate firms, running 4 different
offices, supporting nearly 450 agents, uniquely
positioning him to help thousands of investors
make money in the biggest market opportunity ever!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
* On twitter:
http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* On facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/addfriend.php?id=709199143

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Warren Buffett Says Economy Fell Off a Cliff

by Chris McLaughlin on March 9, 2009

Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, March 6, 2009
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html


When Warren Buffett speaks, everyone listens.  And so it was no surprise today that the financial markets continued to take it on the chin when the Oracle of Omaha confirmed in an interview with CNBC what we’ve all been thinking: the economy has “fallen off a cliff,” he said. 
Not only has the economy slowed down a lot, but people have really changed their habits like I haven’t seen.” 

He expects the unemployment rate, which now stands just over 8%, to go higher.  And with all the money flowing out of government right now, Buffett expects significant inflation in the future, perhaps worse than in the 1970s.  And for those who are upset about those who acted responsibly having to now bailout those who didn’t, the sage investor says get over it because it is going to happen.  “The people that behaved well are no doubt going to find themselves taking care of the people who didn’t behave well,” he said.

Buffett likened the current crisis to an economic war, and ‘What is required is a commander in chief that’s looked at like a commander in chief in a time of war,” he noted.   And it will take a lot of money: “We’re in a big war, and we’re going to use money to fight it,” he said.

So here’s a question … this economy isn’t going to turn around anytime soon, that’s for sure.  What are you doing differently to adjust?   If you’re involved in real estate, you need to know about real estate investing systems that require no capital but produce big returns.  Find out more in our webinar this Tuesday night at 8:30 PM ET, 5:30 PM PST.  Do so my clicking here:

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At 2PM ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 43.49 to 6583.45 and the Nasdaq was down 15.37 to 1278.48.

Now onto our real estate investing education section…

Short Sales or REIT’s – Which is Better?

At the height of the real estate boom investors were standing line or camping out overnight to get first dips on new condo’s, selling contracts of real estate before ground had even been broken and investing in REIT’s like there was no tomorrow.  For those few remaining investors that aren’t familiar with REIT it is a security that trades on the major stock exchanges and sells like a stock; the underlying asset is either directly or indirectly secured by real estate through actual property or mortgages. 

Now that prices of REIT’s have dropped from the stratospheric levels reached a few years ago, many investors are wondering which is better – short sales or REIT’s? Let’s take a few minutes to examine the pro’s and con’s associated with each.

Management: The success or failure of an REIT is largely due to the skill, ethics and sage advice utilized by management; just like any other corporation or investment trust, a change in management may have dramatic consequences for your investment portfolio for years to come. As the American public has grown every more weary of unscrupulous management and outright fraud, it is wise to keep a close eye on where your investment dollars reside. Short sales provide the average investor a way to manage their own investments while making deliberate decisions that reflect their needs, tax situation and other long term plans.

Leverage: Every investment benefits from the use of leverage and REIT’s are no exception. Since they are traded like stocks, the same rules – and risks – apply as those underlying the stock exchange today. While the use of leverage, margins and other market tactics can dramatically increase returns, you are still essentially purchasing paper rather than tangible assets. On the other hand, short sales also allow the use of leverage with the added benefit of buying hard assets – not merely paper.

Returns: One of the attractive features of investing in an REIT has been the historically higher than average rate or return; according to both the FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT Index and the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, REIT’s have consistently outperformed direct investments by more than 2.5 percentage points per year…a significant ratio especially when viewed over a lifetime of investing. However, before rushing out to purchase an REIT index, it’s important to consider a few factors that can heavily impact your actual results:

1.      Individual returns. While it’s relatively easy to document the industry returns when dealing with REIT’s, it’s not nearly that easy to distinguish good from bad investors related to the direct purchase of real estate. Everyone knows someone that spent too much on a property; fell in love or simply “had” to have a certain home. The national statistics lump all buyers together – from the average homeowner building their dream home to savvy short sale investors that purchase at half the price. On the other hand, REIT investors have little leeway in how to manage the funds once handed over to the REIT.

2.      Fee’s & More. Not every REIT is the same; some provide significantly greater returns while others charge dramatically less in associated fees and transaction costs. Still others ride the wave of high profile properties subject to come crashing down later.

What should you do to make sure you are getting the best return possible on your money?  Join us on our amazing webinar this Tuesday night at 8:30 PM ET, 5:30 PM PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/496858047

See you at the top!


Chris McLaughlin

http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html  

P.S.

Don’t miss this great video testimonial about short sale coaching:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFp0ylr3mQI&feature=email

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute 2009.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com 

*************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…

http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month

   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid flipping of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties

    * Owner and Supervising Broker of one of Florida’s
     largest Real Estate firms, running 4 different
     offices, supporting nearly 450 agents, uniquely
     positioning him to help thousands of investors
     make money in the biggest market opportunity ever!

     * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building

     * On twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
     * On facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/addfriend.php?id=709199143

{ 0 comments }

Construction Spending Drops, Black Friday Shoppers Solid

by Chris McLaughlin on December 1, 2008

Mid-Day Market News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, December 1, 2008
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html
——
It isn’t about what the economy is doing … it is about how you respond to it! Can you imagine that there’s a way to actually make tons of money in this market, literally a recession-proof investment strategy? Yes, you don’t need capital. You don’t need good credit. You just need a plan. And we’re gonna show you that plan, on Tuesday night. But there are only 50 spots available, so grab yours now:

Recession Proof Investing Webinar (Tuesday, 9 PM EST, 6 PM PST):
http://www.recessionproofinvestingwebinar.com  
—–
The financial markets were jittery this morning after the Institute of Supply Management index of manufacturing activity dropped to 36.2 in November from the reading of 38.9 in October. The drop represented the lowest reading in 26 years, spooking investors who for the most part were pleased with reports that holiday shoppers were buying.

ShopperTrack RCT, a firm that tracks sales for over 500,000 retail outlets, indicated that sales rose 3% to $10.6 billion compared to the Black Friday in the year ago period.

Around noon the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 371.40 to 8457.64 and the Nasdaq was off 79.14 to 1,456.43.

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending dropped 1.2% for the month of October, a larger decline than the .9% many analysts had expected. Housing construction dropped by 3.5%, a larger drop than the decline of .5% in September. Most analysts attribute tightening credit as the leading factor causing the declines.

And in good news for drivers…national gas prices are now $1.82 a gallon, a price not seen since January 2005. This “energy dividend” is likely to assist many companies that were struggling with higher fuel costs. But for those interested in real estate, let’s hope this doesn’t mean buyers want to drive around to even more homes!

And finally, for the political junkies reading this…Senator Hillary Clinton officially was nominated by President Elect Barack Obama to be his Secretary of State. Obama is keeping Defense Secretary Robert Gates and nominated retired Military General Jim Jones to serve as National Security Adviser.

Now, on to our real estate investor education section…

Indicators and Indices: Information You Need to Know

There are two types of investors in this world: those that follow the masses and those that remain independent. Guess which type typically makes the most money? While many investors that go against the common trend of the day are considered contrarian investors, a more apt description may simply be “informed”. Given the recent melt-down hitting Wall Street and Main Street, only those that have a true understanding of current events will have the stamina, rational and readiness required to profit while others panic.

To that effect, one bit of information every short sale investor needs to know is how to “read” these common indicators and indices. While no single index is able to provide a full picture of current events, taken together the information is useful to demonstrate trends in the market. Here are a few lesser known indices to keep an eye on in the coming months:

Barron’s Confidence Index. Experts tend to think of bond investors as a bit more sophisticated and savvy than stock traders (in general) and therefore able to identify stock market trends earlier. This weekly indictor is not as well known to the common investor but eagerly tracked by “those in the know”. The index divides Barron’s 10 top-grade corporate bonds by the yield on the Dow Jones 40 bond average. Because top grade bonds have a lower yield than lower-grade bonds the index is always below 100 with an average range between 80 to 95; this week – the end of November 2008, it sits at 46.4 as compared to 78.8 only a year ago.

Tip: Most analysts believe there is a “lag-time’ between Barron’s Confidence Index and what stocks will be doing in 3-6 months. Expect the “flight to safety” to continue into early next year and keep an eye out for future reversals.

OFHEO Price Index. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight publishes data of major interest to every short sale investor or real estate professional. The most recent data released on November 25th, 2008 shows home prices continued to slide during the past summer by an average of 6.0. However, since the cost of other goods and services increased by 6.7 percent, the inflation adjusted rate of decline actually approached 13 percent over the past year. Despite this dismal news, some states actually showed an increase including North Dakota (4%), South Dakota (3.9%), Texas (3.2%), Alabama (2.8%) and Oklahoma (2.8%).

Tip: The OFHEO utilizes Fannie and Freddie data to derive its data; obviously, given the recent government intervention into these programs the data may be skewed and does not reflect transactions outside of these quasi-governmental programs.
Index of Bearish Sentiment.

Although this index not housing specific, it can provide a useful tool for tracking trends in the general financial and/or economic environment. In a nutshell, this index provides a means of tracking reversals of official recommendations; ie, when the investment advisory service recommends a specific action then it is time to do the opposite.

So for example, if there are 200 total investment advisory services and 100 are bearish then the index would show 200/100 = 50%. This index is used to track the future trends of investors by using a contrarian perspective. When 42 percent or more are bearish then the market will go UP. When 17 percent or fewer are bearish the market will go DOWN.

Tip: Real estate investors can use this as a quick gauge to measure contrarian sentiment in their own markets or as a sub-set of REIT’s, builder stock etc…remember, investor advisory services follow trends rather than make them since by definition, they tend to report on what has happened in the market.

More on Tuesday!

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

P.S.:

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