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Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin August 31, 2010

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CNBC’s Olick – homebuyer credit again?

“Just when I thought the housing market was finally being left to correct on its own, I’m starting to hear talk regarding yet another home buyer tax credit. From HUD to the hedge funds, it sounds as if it is gaining steam yet again. This one could involve not just first time/move-up buyers, but a credit for buyers purchasing foreclosed properties or short sales (when the bank allows you to buy a home for less than the value of the outstanding mortgage).  HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan, appearing on CNN’s State of the Union this weekend, didn’t rule out another tax credit. He did say it’s ‘too early to say,’ but then added that ‘we’re going to be focused like a laser on where the housing market is moving going forward, and we are going to go everywhere we can to make sure this market stabilizes and recovers.’  After that several Congressional candidates in Florida threw their voices behind the possibility, and Florida Gov. Charlie Crist then chimed in on the same show, saying that another tax credit, ‘would stimulate the economy. It would increase home sales in Florida.’ He finished with: ‘I would absolutely encourage the president to support that because it would certainly help my fellow Floridians.’

So of course then I went the official route and followed up with a HUD spokesperson who responded:  ‘No news here…there are no discussions underway to revive the credit.’  Is it all political? And is another tax credit the answer?  ‘I don’t think it’s all political,’ says housing consultant Howard Glaser. ‘I think they are panicked that the economy/housing got away from them.’ Glaser doesn’t sound convinced the tax credit is really on the table.  ‘They can do a lot off budget with the GSE’s and FHA with no Congress.’  I know a lot of you out there would argue that a housing market correction, as painful as it is, is necessary for housing to truly find its footing again and recover for the long term. Another artificial stimulus could just prolong the agony and set us up for the same drop off in sales and prices that we’re seeing right now.  But it could also move some inventory quickly.

With inventories of new and existing homes dangerously high, and the shadow supply of foreclosures pushing that volume even higher, more stimulus could be a necessary evil. I liken it to what I’m doing with my lawn this week. All summer I fought the weeds, pulling them, using the organic sprays and repellents, spreading mulch to deprive them of any air.  And then I gave up.  I called the lawn service and told them to bring every chemical in their arsenal.  Shock the overgrown mess into submission once and for all, so that I can start fresh again and reseed this fall.”

Banks modifying more than HAMP

Banks have long come under fire not doing enough to help troubled homeowners, particularly when the mortgage crisis started spinning out of control in 2007. Many loan servicers initially addressed the problem by tacking on the missed payments, which only increased strapped homeowners’ monthly burden.  However, banks now are doing nearly twice as many modifications under their own foreclosure prevention initiatives than under the Obama administration’s signature Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). 

Servicers completed nearly 644,000 so-called “proprietary permanent modifications” in the first half of this year, compared to 332,000 such adjustments made under the Obama program, according to Hope Now, a consortium of mortgage servicers, investors and housing counselors.  About half of borrowers who don’t land a permanent HAMP modification are given an in-house adjustment, according to federal statistics.  About 78% of banks’ in-house modifications involved interest rate and principal reductions, Hope Now found.  Wells Fargo, for instance, said last week it has reduced more than $3.1 billion in principal on nearly 60,000 loan modifications in the past 18 months. It uses a combination of principal adjustments, interest rate reductions and term extensions to assist its borrowers.

Hidden secrets

Buried in section 953(b) of the Dodd-Frank financial reform act is a new rule forcing companies to disclose the ratio between their chief executive’s pay package and that of the typical employee.  While this may sound like a good, if intrusive, idea on the surface, it creates what lawyers call a “logistical nightmare.”  “We’re not debating the concept of disclosure – we think it’s a good thing,” said Larry Burton, executive director of the Business Roundtable, which represents chief executives of the biggest US companies. “But you can do more harm than good if you take a well-intended piece of policy and implement it badly. That’s the risk here.”  The rules’ complexity means multinationals face a “logistical nightmare” in calculating the ratio, which has to be based on the median annual total compensation for all employees, warned Richard Susko, partner at law firm Cleary Gottlieb. “It’s just not do-able for a large company with tens of thousands of employees worldwide.” 

Pay experts said business had been caught off-guard by the measure, which was not one of the high-profile battlegrounds of the Dodd-Frank legislation. Companies are now gearing up to lobby the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has to write detailed provisions for the new rule.  The rule could also reward with a relatively low ratio those companies that outsourced low-paid work rather than keeping jobs in-house, lawyers said.  Robert Menendez, the senator who sponsored the provision, dismissed business fears. “The idea behind the new rule is that sunlight is the best disinfectant,” said an aide. “Disclosure will help encourage fair pay for workers at a time when middle class pay has stagnated while CEO pay has skyrocketed.”  Like most intrusions by government into the private sector, this one will have bucketloads of unforeseen consequences I’m sure.

Home prices rise

Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas rose 0.3% in June from May on a seasonally adjusted basis. The rise was better than the 0.2% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters, though slower than the 0.5% rise in May.  Unadjusted, the 20-city index gained 1% following May’s 1.3% jump.  S&P, which publishes the indexes, also said home prices nationally rose 4.4% in the second quarter after a 2.8% drop in the first quarter.  Prices rose in 17 of the 20 metro areas in June, S&P said, adding that in the first half of the year 15 of the 20 areas had positive annual growth rates. The housing market is in better shape than a year ago, S&P said.  “Given the way home sales collapsed in July and given the boost in housing activity across the board in the second quarter, it’s clear this may have been the calm before the storm,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P.  “The worry starts when you remember that the Homebuyers’ Tax Credit has expired, foreclosures are still at high levels, and July data on home sales and starts were very, very weak,” Blitzer said in a statement.  “The inventory of unsold homes and months’ supply data were particularly troubling,” he said, adding that “if this relative weakness in demand continues, it will likely filter through to home prices in coming months.

Auto sales lowest in 28 years

U.S. auto sales in August probably were the slowest for the month in 28 years as model-year closeout deals failed to entice consumers concerned the economy is worsening and they may lose their jobs.  While automakers increased discounts by 1% from July to an average of $2,864 per vehicle, sales to individuals probably fell 7% from last month, according to Santa Monica, California-based TrueCar.  Industrywide deliveries, to be released tomorrow, may have reached an annualized rate of 11.6 million vehicles this month, the average of eight analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the slowest August since 1982, according to researcher Ward’s AutoInfoBank. The rate would be 18% below last year’s 14.2 million pace, when the U.S. government’s “cash for clunkers” incentive program boosted sales.  “Home sales are way down, the stock market is way down, the unemployment report is very disappointing and consumer confidence is sputtering,” Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends at TrueCar.com, said in an interview. “People just don’t want to make big-ticket purchases because they’re uncertain about their jobs and the value of their homes.”  Ford, helped by new models such as the Fiesta small car, will post a 5.2% sales drop, the average of six analysts’ estimates. Chrysler, aided by deliveries to large buyers such as rental-car companies, will have sales increase 3%, the average of six estimates. General Motors Co. will fall 19%, the average of four estimates, in line with the industrywide drop.

Now for our real estate education section…

Frequency Intervals & Demographic Trends

Statistics. Love them or hate them but most business decisions involve the use of statistical data including the purchase and sale of investment real estate. For example, one common measure of a good investment property is “affordability”. But what exactly constitutes affordable?

It’s an important consideration and one that most short sale investors do not fully understand. The short answer is that an affordable home is at or below the “average” household income for that location; ie, it can be purchased or rented by most households and is therefore an attractive investment. However, this really only relates a small amount of the total information required. Average or mean incomes are notoriously inaccurate due to skewing of results at the high or low ends. Likewise, “average” priced homes are equally biased due to very high priced or very low priced home.

One way to avoid the problem is to use frequency intervals in combination with demographic trends and housing price. Frequency intervals are ways of measuring a large group of items to determine which is the most commonly occurring. For example, let’s assume a short sale investor is interested in purchasing a few properties in a given city; s/he is very prudent and does some research to find out the average household income and the average sales price of a home. So far – so good. Just for the sake of simplicity we will assume the household income is close to the national average at $50,000. The average sales price of homes in the area is $150,000 or roughly 3x the annual household income. Our savvy short sale investor sets out to find a few homes in that price range…what could go wrong? Well a lot.

Unfortunately, the rising rates of unemployment combined with a few very high incomes skew the results…basically there are a lot of low-end household incomes in the $25,000 range and a small but significant number of wealthy households in the $ million dollar range. The “average” may still be $50,000 per household for that city but it fails to account for the lack of a substantial middle class. Basically, there are very few households able and willing to purchase a home for $150,000. The lower income households cannot qualify and the higher income households may not be interested.

The solution is to use frequency intervals for all pertinent data including household income, age and other significant criteria. By learning how many households are in a given income bracket, how many are of home-buying or renting age, etc… the investor has a much more detailed plan of action. Returning to the prior example, rather than purchase a $150,000 average home, the investor may concentrate efforts on homes priced at or below $75,000 and/or luxury homes instead. This would appeal to the largest number of buyers and renters for that area at either/or the low income level of high household income level. It’s a simple solution to address highly volatile markets and disparate data.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2010.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com
–

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin August 30, 2010

Forward this e-mail to your friends! 

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link: 

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*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–> http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–> http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

**********************************************************
Bulk REO Training Program … Your Questions Answered Tomorrow!

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System!  And get PROOF on why we’re best able to help you achieve

your goals with Bulk REOs.

Click here and RSVP for our webinar tomorrow at 11 AM ET, 8 AM PST:

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**********************************************************

Foreclosure relief – great for banks; for consumers not so much

Mark Gimein of Daily Finance makes the following points about why HAMP actually hurts many borrowers while helping banks:

1.  Foreclosure relief in many cases simply stretches out borrowers’ slow bleed of resources. By keeping borrowers in limbo while letting lenders delay repossessing houses they can’t sell, foreclosure aid is now benefiting borrowers less than the lenders who created the mortgage mess. For lenders, mortgage modification is the waiting room in the mortuary, a convenient place to hold borrowers while the banks deal with the overflow of houses already repossessed.

2.  Most borrowers behind on their mortgages are already overburdened with other debts. After the mortgage reduction, the typical modification recipient, despite an average $513 drop in monthly payments, has to devote 63.5% of his or her income to mortgage payments, other debt, and taxes.

3.  Banks don’t have to kick people out quickly.  Banks have steadily slowed down the foreclosure process: The average homeowner in foreclosure now is an amazing 461 days behind in his payments. Barry Ritholtz of financial blog The Big Picture calls banks’ reluctance to take over houses “strategic non-foreclosure.” Taking a leisurely path to repossession lets lenders avoid the costs of maintaining properties they can’t sell in a market that remains in free fall in much of the country.

4.  The last insult added to this mess comes from Fannie Mae, which has promulgated new rules that lock those who don’t make the effort to modify their mortgages out of the Fannie-backed mortgage market for seven years.  So ultimately this comes full circle, and what started as an effort to help borrowers has become another cudgel in the hands of lenders.

Spending up more than income

Consumer spending is critical because it accounts for 70% of economic activity.  The Commerce Department says spending fell 0.1% in April, rose a tiny 0.1% in May, was flat in June, but rose 0.4% in July.  Personal incomes were up 0.2% in July, less than expected but at least an improvement over June when incomes had not risen at all.  With spending rising, the personal savings rate slowed to 5.9% of after-tax income. That’s down from 6.2% in June, the highest in nearly a year. Even with the July decline, the savings rate is nearly three times higher than it was before the recession began in December 2007. 

The July spending gain was the highest since a 0.5% rise in March. But the concern is that demand could taper off in the second half of this year if unemployment remains near double digits.  If Americans don’t have jobs, they don’t have the income to support spending. the economy is growing too slowly to support sustained job growth and some fear it could fall back into a recession. Economic growth slowed to 1.6% in the April-to-June quarter, the government reported Friday. That was revised down from the initial estimate of 2.4%.  A string of weak economic reports in recent weeks has prompted economists to trim their growth forecasts for the rest of the year and next.

Fannie Mae portfolio up 4.1%

Fannie Mae’s mortgage portfolio through July is up 4.1% from the year ago yet down somewhat from June, and the GSE issued nearly half the mortgage-backed securities during the month than in did last July.  Fannie ended July with gross holdings of nearly $812 billion. That figure stood at $770.4 billion last year and $817.8 billion in June.  The agency issued $42.7 billion of mortgage-backed securities during July, a nearly 48% decline from $79.7 billion a year earlier but up 6.4% from June. Fannie’s MBS issuances peaked in June 2009, when more than $130 billion was issued.  The serious delinquency rate in Fannie Mae’s portfolio fell to 4.99% in June, which is the latest month data is available, from 5.15% in May. For the year-ago July, the agency’s delinquency rate was 4.17%. The rate peaked at 5.59% in February and was as low as 3.42% in April 2009.  “Fannie Mae and FHLB are taking advantage of better funding from callables as bullet LOAS widens due to renewed corporate issuance and calmer short LIBOR levels,” said Jim Vogel of FTN Financial. “The gain can be as much as 10bp.  The obvious result is that both need less funding from bullets and floaters.  The superior funding stems primarily from the constant demand for new callables to replace those redeemed at close to a $100 billion monthly pace.”

NABE – economists mixed on what to do

The National Association of Business Economists (NABE) said Monday that three-quarters of its members believe that promoting economic growth should be a higher priority than reducing the national deficit, according to an August survey of the nation’s economic policy.  However, nearly the same number of NABE economists said they do not think another stimulus package is necessary to halt the economic slowdown and get the economy back on track. At the same time, a majority believe that policymakers should do more to boost job growth.  The survey, based on responses from 84 NABE economists who work for private-sector firms and industry trade associations, comes as economic growth in the United States has slowed significantly after rebounding from a deep recession.

The NABE survey showed that just under half of those polled see deflation as the main threat facing the economy in the short term, but respondents were less certain about whether inflation or deflation is the biggest threat over the next three years.  In a sign of the challenges currently facing Fed policy makers, there was little consensus among the NABE economists on when the central bank will raise interest rates and begin selling off assets it bought during the financial crisis.  After cutting rates to historic lows near 0% in December 2008, the Fed has been without its main tool for supporting economic activity for nearly two years. It has since bought billions worth of Treasury bonds in an effort to bring down rates for home and other consumer loans. But some central bankers are worried about adding to the $2 trillion worth of assets the Fed has acquired over the last few years.  A clear majority of economists said that none of the existing tax cuts on individual income, dividends and capital gains should be allowed to expire.

DSNews.com – Homebuyer’s tax credit coming back?

After a worse than expected falloff in home sales during the month of July, buzz about a possible revival of the federal homebuyer tax credit has begun to surface.  The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported last week that sales of previously owned homes plummeted 27 percent in July, hitting their lowest mark in 15 years. New home sales also took a dive, dropping nearly 13 percent from June to July.  Both reports were clear indications of the frailty of the housing market post-stimulus. Although, the steep declines were actually considered a by-product of the tax credits themselves, which expired on April 30 – payback for the incentives that pulled sales forward into the spring months. 

HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan said on CNN’s “State of the Union” program this weekend, “The July numbers were worse than we expected, worse than the general market expected, and we are concerned. That’s why we are taking additional steps to move forward.  Donovan said it was too early to say for sure, after only one month’s numbers, whether the administration would revive its popular homebuyer tax credits to give the housing markets another much-needed boost, but he didn’t wholly rule it out as an option.  “All I can tell you is that we are watching very carefully,” Donovan told CNN. “We’re going to be focused like a laser on where the housing market is moving going forward, and we are going to go everywhere we can to make sure this market stabilizes and recovers.”  Two U.S. Senate candidates from Florida, one of the hardest hit states by the housing downturn, spoke out in favor of bringing back the federal tax credits for homebuyers on the CNN program.

Now for our real estate education section…

Take the Mystery Out of Time Mastery

One of the most frequently cited reasons for not actively pursuing short sale investments is a lack of time; work schedules, family obligations and other day-to-day activities simply seem to take every available moment. So, where does everyone else find the time to invest? Surely they all can’t be retirees with nothing else to do all day. You are right – they aren’t. Research shows that busy people are more likely to remain busy and get even more done because they have mastered the mystery of time management.

For those of you who have read (and failed) at the 4-Hour Workweek or the 7 Habits of Highly Effective People and other popular time management books, the first step is to determine why you are out of control in the first place. Are you overwhelmed with work, home or other obligations? Chances are you may not even realize the extent of the problem but instead spend your days going from one urgent task to the next.  Although urgency is a great motivator, it can go too far. When the daily “to-do” list tends to pile up into a never-ending series of activities without an end in sight, you can be sure it has gone too far.

Rather than trying to figure out how to schedule enough time to attend a time-management course or sit down and re-prioritize the entire week or work through the weekend in yet another vain attempt to “get organized” try this instead; get control. Sounds simple doesn’t it? Well in some respects it really is simple. Today is Monday…give this a try for five days and see how it works for the remainder of the week:

1. Begin by asking yourself what really constitutes the most important actions for the day…the ones you would stay late in order to finalize…then work on those first. Be careful not to confuse “important” items with “urgent” items.

2. Next on the list are those “opportunity” items. These are tasks which are either time sensitive or require some level of consistent work in order to bring about.  If you find the opportunity list growing too large, it’s time to step back and get a reality check. Keep the list small and only add items once the original ones are accomplished. If an item is no longer a priority then delete it; don’t leave it on the list waiting for another day.

3.  Delegate. Learning how and when to delegate takes a bit of patience and persistence. Contrary to popular belief, hiring someone else to handle the mundane tasks in life isn’t always as simple as it seems. Finding the right person can be time consuming and fraught with frustration especially for those that have a tendency to micro-manage. Let go and let others do their job so you can do yours!

4. Appointments versus Tasks. Understand the difference. Appointments are traditionally the last thing you can delegate but many of the tasks required in the process of an appointment can easily be delegated. Create a list of significant outcomes that can be tracked and put into effect immediately.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2010.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com
–

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin July 12, 2010

Forward this e-mail to your friends! 

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:  http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–> http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–> http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

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Foreclosures to persist

According to authors at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the nation’s high foreclosure rate is likely to persist.  The Fed article looks at the changes in foreclosure and unemployment rates across states, noting the differences in the timing of the movements.  The conjecture that the high foreclosure rate will persist is based in part on the observation that states that experienced boom-bust housing cycles in the past (Texas, Oklahoma, Massachusetts and California) had elevated foreclosure starts for years after the peak in foreclosure starts and inventory.  These previous boom-bust cycles “were small in comparison to the current cycle,” the article said.  While the recession has left deep scars in the housing and labor markets — with the unemployment rate doubling and the foreclosure start rate roughly tripling — the timing of the movements differs over the cycle, according to the abstract, written by Timothy Dunne, a vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, and Kyle Fee, a research assistant.

Credit scores down

According to FICO Inc., 25.5 percent of consumers — nearly 43.4 million people — now have a credit score of 599 or below, marking them as poor risks for lenders. With scores like that it’s unlikely they’ll be able to get credit cards, auto loans or mortgages under the tighter lending standards banks now use.  FICO’s latest analysis is based on consumer credit reports as of April. Its findings represent an increase of about 2.4 million people in the lowest credit score categories in the past two years. Before the Great Recession, scores on FICO’s 300-to-850 scale weren’t as volatile, said Andrew Jennings, chief research officer for FICO in Minneapolis.

Historically, just 15 percent of the 170 million consumers with active credit accounts, or 25.5 million people, fell below 599, according to data posted on Myfico.com.  On the positive side, the number of consumers who have a top score of 800 or above has increased in recent years. At least in part, this reflects that more individuals have cut spending and paid down debt in response to the recession. Their ranks now stand at 17.9 percent, which is notably above the historical average of 13 percent, though down from 18.7 percent in April 2008 before the market meltdown.  There’s also been a notable shift in the important range of people with moderate credit, those with scores between 650 and 699. The new data shows that this group comprised 11.9 percent of scores. This is down only marginally from 12 percent in 2008, but reflects a drop of roughly 5.3 million people from its historical average of 15 percent.

Olick – NYT caught with its pants down

The other way we posted an article claiming the rich were the worst defaulters.  Diana Olick says it ain’t so:  “The data show that while one in 12 mortgages under a million dollars are delinquent, “more than one in seven homeowners with loans in excess of a million dollars are seriously delinquent.”  Shall I wax on about how the rich care less about their credit ratings than the not-so-rich, or how many of these luxury homes are second homes that the owners don’t really need, or how rich folks don’t give a hoot about their communities and see these homes purely for their investment value?  

Nah, I’d rather do a little math. Here’s my problem with the thesis of this article: A little less than 14 percent of the loans outstanding in the U.S. are “jumbo,” meaning over $417,000, according to government statistics (FHFA). The number of loans that are over $1m are even less than that.  So when we’re talking about rates of default, you have to factor in the share of the market that you’re looking at and the bottom line numbers.  Yes, the rate is higher, but it’s a far smaller share of borrowers, and that makes the numbers far more volatile.   Just 1.7 percent of all home sales in May were of homes over one million dollars.  That just gives you an idea of how small that marketplace is.  Yes, we can always find the odd celebrity that squandered away all their millions and defaulted on the loan, but I would take a big step back before I come to the conclusion that the ‘rich: are more likely to default on a loan than the “unrich.’”

CMBS Delinquency Rate Exceeds 8%

The US commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) delinquency rate ticked up 17 basis points to 8.14% in June, according to Fitch Ratings.  It marked the smallest increase in 11 months, and the fifth straight month of loan resolutions in excess of $1bn. Fitch noted $1.5bn of loans leaving the index helped to offset the $2bn of new delinquencies, bringing the total net increase in delinquencies to $512m of loans.  Newly delinquent loans in June bore smaller average balances of $10.1m than the index’s overall $13.1m average. No loans with a balance in excess of $100m became newly delinquent in June.  “While delinquencies slowed for the month, this trend is not expected to continue,” said Managing Director Mary MacNeill. “The number of distressed properties continues to grow, and if borrowers are unable to access capital for leasing costs or are unable to restructure their loans to a leverage level commensurate with sustainable property values, they may stop subsidizing debt service payments.”  Loans continue to transfer to special servicing at an elevated rate, with a net increase of $4.2bn in performing specially serviced loans in June. In total, $23bn of loans in special servicing remain less than 60 days delinquent but face an increased risk of default.  The multifamily delinquency rate rose to 13.82%, from 13.65% in May, while the office delinquency rate grew to 4.84% from 4.59%. The retail delinquency rate grew 16 basis points to 6.19% from 6.03% in May, while the industrial delinquency rate grew 41 basis points to 5.48%, from 5.07% in May. The rate of delinquency in hotel loans grew a single basis point to 18.62%.

Now for our real estate education section…

Stats, Facts & Other Social Media Solutions

Are you putting the power of social media marketing to work for your real estate business? If not now-when? If you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect time to take the plunge, here are a few stats and facts that should provide all the inspiration required:

Inclusive…

77% of Internet users rely upon blogs for information…roughly 80% of real estate buyers and sellers make first contact with an agent via by reading their blogs first.

The average social media user has 195 friends they routinely communicate with an average of 1 to 2 x per week.

Mobile Facebook users are twice as active as non-mobile users. Only one of every four Twitter users interact via the web interface.

Exclusive…

Over 60% of Twitter users are outside of the USA.

Over half of YouTube users are under 20 years of age.

Take Away’s…

1. Make mobile a priority when using social media websites. Mobile users on both Facebook and Twitter are more active, linked to more people and increasingly interact exclusively via applications outside of the web interface.

2. International real estate sales and market must use Twitter.

3. UTube is especially geared toward a younger audience.

4. Blogs are a ‘must have’ for building relationships.

5. Put an “I” in social media marketing. Effective marketing is an extension of your professional “voice” but that doesn’t meant it must take a lot of time and effort. Learn how to put the power of social media marketing to work for your real estate endeavors by joining one of our webinars or other informational sessions.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2010.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
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http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

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About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com
-

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*** Follow Chris on Twitter–> http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

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Every so often you come across the real deal.  The guy

behind the scenes that makes famous people obscenely

wealthy…along with himself.   And I’ve got just the

person for you this…he’s the real estate advisor to the

stars … and this is one webinar you gotta see!  RSVP here:

 

Webinar: Donald Trump’s and Robert Kiyosaki’s Secret Weapon

 

When: Tuesday, May 18, at 3 PM ET, NOON PST

 RSVP Link: https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/519321851 

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Housing market diagnosis: Bi-polar

Bi-polar is what comes to mind when diagnosing the post-homebuyer tax credit market. On one hand, sales and prices are rising, indicating recovery. On the other hand, so are interest rates and repossessions, which most certainly do not. And then there are the millions of foreclosures that need to be sold but haven’t yet been listed — so-called shadow inventory — that could derail a real recovery if they hit the market in floods. The result means, negative short-term but turning positive by the end of 2010.  “In the short run, I see a mini-collapse,” said Richard DeKaser, an independent housing market analyst and founder of Woodley Park Research who correctly predicted a downturn back in 2005 when he was chief economist for National City Corp. 

There are some strong negatives dragging on the market. 1. Intermittently increasing interest rates 2. Bank repossessions surpass a million homes in 2010. 3. More than a quarter of borrowers are “underwater,” meaning they owe more than their homes are worth. 4. “Strategic defaults” close to 31% of all foreclosures in March — where underwater home owners walkway even when they can still afford to pay. And the scary truth: Right now, there could be more than 4.5 million homes that are ready to be sold but not on the market, also called “shadow inventory,” according to a recent report by Barclays Capital. This so-called shadow inventory is a recent phenomenon. In the past, inventory was either tight or it wasn’t. But now, with home prices so low and so many foreclosures on the market, both homeowners and banks have been waiting to put properties on the market.  But as more sellers put their homes up for sale, supplies increase, which will depress prices again. Rinse and repeat ad infinitum. That vicious cycle could cause prices to bounce up and down for years, low or no appreciation and more homeowners in negative equity.

Obama aide: U.S. economy still needs further boost

The U.S. economy has begun to climb out of the worst downturn since the 1930 Great Depression but still needs additional steps by the federal government to stem a crisis in the job market, a senior economic adviser to President Barack Obama said on Sunday. “What we need now is not the withdrawal of support, but further targeted actions that will help the private sector come back more strongly,” Christina Romer, chairwoman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said in prepared remarks for a commencement ceremony at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia.

Romer urged Congress to pass a series of measures Obama has proposed to jump-start growth, including the establishment of a lending fund to spur credit to small businesses and providing cash-strapped cities and states with aid to help them avoid layoffs of teachers and other local employees. With the U.S. unemployment rate just under 10 percent, the Obama administration is juggling the need to spur economic growth with pressure to rein in ballooning U.S. budget deficits. The latest government report on the job market showed that the jobless rate ticked up two tenths of a percentage point to 9.9 percent as discouraged workers began looking for work again. Romer, an expert on the Great Depression, used much of her speech to compare the current economic crisis to the long downturn of the 1930s.  Republicans have sharply criticized the stimulus package, calling it an example of overreach by the government and contending that it failed to do enough to spur jobs growth. 

Diana Olick – Home Mortgage Interest Deduction In Play

“The Administration isn’t officially considering it, maybe not “actively” considering it, not even taking a side on it per se. According to “staff” it was just a “musing.” At a small conclave of reporters, no cameras allowed, the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development was reportedly asked about the mortgage interest deduction, the importance of home ownership and the seeming shift of focus from owning to renting. That last bit is huge in itself, as pretty much every President dating back to Herbert Hoover and the Home-Loan Discount Banks pushed people to own own own.  Some argue that it was this push to the “ownership society” by President’s Clinton and Bush that caused at least some of the housing crisis, and at the very least pushed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to push the envelope of responsible lending.  Secretary Donovan reportedly offered that modifying the deduction could result in deficit reduction and, as the Wall Street Journal notes, “rebalancing federal housing policy.” 

The mortgage interest deduction, which appears on about 41 million U.S. tax returns, is a huge political hot button, and the more questions the Secretary got, the quicker he tried to get out of the conversation. No, there is “no official position” on the deduction. But the question didn’t come from the ether. A couple of economists from Harvard and Wharton suggested last week that the housing bubble was not caused entirely by faulty mortgage lending, but perhaps more by housing policy going back decades. Their conclusion was to focus on modifying the mortgage deduction.  According to the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation, between 2009 and 2013, the federal government will lose roughly $600 billion from the home mortgage interest deduction.”

Threat of Shadow Inventory Diminishing: Barclays

Analysts at Barclays Capital say the industry’s ominous shadow inventory is close to topping out.  New research published by the firm says the supply of homes nearing REO status, defined as 90 or more days delinquent or in the process of foreclosure, will peak this summer and then begin falling gradually as the market becomes stable enough to absorb 130,000 distressed properties a month. “While we expect REO levels to remain elevated, the trickle of homes from foreclosure into REO implies moderate levels of inventory reaching market,” Barclays said in its report. 

The company estimates the current REO supply to be 478,000 and expects it to rise to 536,000 by late 2011. Barclays’ delinquency pipeline snapshot shows that as of February, there were 2.4 million mortgages at least 90 days past due and 2.1 million more already winding through the foreclosure process, which combined makes up a shadow inventory of 4.5 million. It’s a daunting tally and could grow larger as foreclosure alternatives are exhausted, but Barclays’ model forecasts 4.7 million distressed sales over the next three years, with 1.6 million coming in 2010, 1.6 million in 2011, and 1.5 million in 2012. The research firm notes, however, that an orderly liquidation of shadow inventory will require both “more robust household formation and job growth.”  Barclays forecast that the industry is only a few months away from reaching peak levels of shadow inventory.

Commercial Market Still Struggling

While the commercial real estate market may not have fully recovered, National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun identified some developing, positive trends in the market that could eventually lead to recovery at the “Economics Issues and Commercial Business Trends Forum.”  Yun said jobs only began increasing a couple of months ago and are still below peak. The commercial market has seen a few improving trends in recent months. The market is experiencing an increase in transactions due to more distressed properties available, and prices are beginning to stabilize. Yun believes within the next year more lending will slowly become accessible to commercial property owners.

Two commercial sectors showing the most promise are manufacturing and multifamily. Manufacturing activity and employment have risen recently and because household formation is also rising, the multifamily sector will likely fare the best during this economy. Despite some of these promising trends, the commercial market is still experiencing high vacancy rates and rent concessions. “All real estate is local, but I expect to see vacancy rates bottoming out and rent rising by next year,” said Yun.  He also warned against some of the possible risks commercial practitioners may experience in the future such as high interest rates and inflation, as well as increased taxes for commercial real estate investors. During the session, Yun was joined by two leading economic experts, Diane Swonk, Mesirow Financial; and Brendan Reilly, Commercial Mortgage Securities Association. The panelists agreed that an improving economy and job creation continue to be the two main factors when it comes to restoring the commercial real estate market.

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Now on to our real estate investing education section …

Huh? HUD Reform Could Create Chaos

It probably comes as no surprise that the lending industry has…and will continue…to undergo dramatic changes in response to the financial strain and economic meltdown however, one recent proposal is putting a lot of lenders up in arms. Specifically the “Strengthening Risk Management through Responsible FHA Approved Lenders” report published on April 20,2010 which essentially lays out the new plans designed to help FHA lenders and brokers comply with upcoming regulatory changes.

While that all sounds straightforward enough, the devil is in the details. According to industry experts, after December 31,2010, the FHA broker approval process will be eliminated from HUD responsibility and oversight. Savvy brokers might wonder who will now be in charge of the approximately 8,000 current FHA brokers that will be left without direct supervision under HUD. According to the same report, beginning in 2011, FHA approved lenders will be responsible for approving brokers…and held accountable for the brokers FHA originations.

Hmmm…let’s take a moment to break this down into plain language terms.

By eliminating roughly 8,000 brokers from HUD’s direct responsibility without reducing HUD’s audit staff, the remaining 3,000 FHA lenders are likely to be exposed to greater scrutiny and oversight. If that wasn’t enough, here are few more highlights coming soon to an office near you.

May 20,2010 – Yes, this week marks the first step in the reform process. Beginning 05/20/10, lenders will be directly responsible for the approval and oversight of new brokers (12/31/10 for current FHA approved brokers). There does seem to be a decided lack of clarity. Confused yet?

You aren’t alone. To date, HUD has not provided lenders any specific guidance on how to oversee a brokers activity.

December 31,2010 – This is the final date where Quality Control audits will be required for broker approval. After that date, the broker will require FHA lender approval to participate. Lenders are expected to pass the QC requirements to the broker in an effort to reduce regulatory requirements.

To learn more or to view the document for yourself visit:

http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/pdf/2010-8837.pdf 

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

 

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com