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Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 6, 2011

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Foreclosures down in Colorado

According to a report re-leased Tuesday by the Colorado Division of Housing, foreclosure auction sales in Colorado’s metropolitan counties were up 7.9 percent in November compared to November of last year.  Foreclosure sales in Larimer County rose 47 percent in November compared to a year ago but filings dropped 37 percent.  Overall, sales and filings dropped in Larimer County in the first 11 months of the year compared to the same time frame in 2010.  However, comparing the first 11 months of this year to the same period last year, foreclosure filings were down 28.6 percent through November while foreclosure auction sales were down 20.7 percent.  New foreclosure filings fell year over year during November with total filings dropping 21.7 percent from 2,932 filings in November 2010 to 2,296 filings in November of this year. Foreclosure auction sales increased during the same period from 1,195 to 1,290.  From October 2011 to November 2011, foreclosure filings fell 2.3 percent, and foreclosure sales at auction rose 37.5 percent.

Foreclosure auction sales through November fell year over year from 2010’s 11n-month total of 18,728 to 14,854 during the same period this year. Foreclosure filings were also down through November, falling to 23,556 filings year-to-date this year from last year’s 11-month total of 32,982.  Year-to-date through November, the counties with the largest decreases in foreclosure filings, year-over-year, were Mesa County and Denver County, where filings decreased by 35.2 percent and 32.2 percent, respectively. Pueblo County reported the smallest decline in filings with a decrease of 12.5 percent from the first 11 months of 2010 to the same period this year. All counties surveyed reported year-over-year decreases in foreclosure filings.  For the first 11 months of this year, all counties also showed decreases in foreclosure auction sales when compared to the same period last year.

The counties with the largest decreases in foreclosure auction sales, year-over-year, were Broomfield County and Adams County, where auction sales decreased by 40.3 percent and 27.0 percent, respectively. Pueblo County reported the smallest decline in auction sales with a decrease of 9.1 percent from the first eleven months of 2010 to the same period this year.  The county with the highest rate of foreclosure sales during November was Adams County with a rate of 681 households per foreclosure sale. Mesa County came in second with 792 households per foreclosure sale. The lowest rate was found in Boulder County where there were 3,402 households per foreclosure sale.

Mr. Geithner goes to Germany

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner arrived in Germany on Tuesday for a three-day blitz of euro zone officials to urge them to take decisive action to backstop their currency union and resolve a crushing debt crisis.  Geithner will press French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the new leaders of Spain and Italy and Germany’s finance minister to agree at a crucial European Union summit on Friday to take steps that will give markets confidence that no euro zone countries will default, and that the region’s banks will stay solvent.  Geithner has made several trips to Europe in recent months as U.S. concerns over the crisis grow and, judging by comments from both him and President Barack Obama, the Treasury Secretary may add to a growing chorus calling for the European Central Bank to take more decisive action to resolve the crisis.

The need for action was underscored by Standard & Poor’s warning on Monday that 15 of the 17 euro zone countries now face an unprecedented mass downgrade if they fail to reach a satisfactory agreement at the Brussels summit—all the way up to AAA-rated Germany and France.  The Federal Reserve joined with the European Central Bank and others in action to ease dollar funding strains a week ago and Obama and Geithner have both pointed to the option of the ECB backstopping European governments and the banking system. That idea is viewed by many economists as the key to any comprehensive solution to the crisis, but resisted by Germany.

Olick – why are cancellations even higher?

“For the past several months, Realtors across the nation have been reporting an ever-increasing number of cancelled existing home sale contracts. The latest Realtors Confidence Index now puts the cancellation rate at 20 percent, way up from the historical norm of around four to six percent.  ‘On-time settlements were reported as declining from 65 percent to 47 percent,’ according to the Realtors. It’s not why you think, or at least not why I thought. Inability to get a mortgage was reported by just 9 percent of respondents to the Realtor survey. Bigger issues were failed inspections, buyers with cold feet and adverse economic conditions. I’m sure appraisals figured in there as well.  It begs the question then, if these are just delays or true cancellations?

Anecdotally, I was doing a report on a residential street in Northwest DC last week, an area that is still holding its own and didn’t lose much in the housing crash. I was standing in front of a ‘For Sale’ sign, when the Realtor from the sign came out of the house. She wanted to know what we were saying about the neighborhood, concerned of course that there were any signs of cracking. I assured her there were not, but asked about the house she was selling.  The Realtor told me it was actually under contract, after about 35 days on the market. I asked why there was no ‘under contract’ sign, which used to be so commonplace before the ‘sold’ sign goes up. She said they hadn’t had the inspection yet, although the house looked, at least from the outside, to be in very good condition. When I asked if she worried about that, her answer was, ‘You never know these days.’ Apparently the jitters are widespread, even in one of the nation’s most secure housing markets.

With so much of the current housing market comprised of distressed property sales, and with the Realtors unable to capture so much of that share in their data, uncertainty is certainly understandable if not mandated. I read a report today citing Barclay’s analyst Stephen Kim of Barclays Capital, who is upgrading builders and raising price targets on the premise that we will see a housing ‘rebound’ in 2012.  ‘In the absence of a government homebuyer incentive, prices for non-distressed home sales have stabilized for almost a year. In our opinion, this is the most important trend in the housing industry right now,’ notes Kim. ‘We are amazed at how little attention it has been getting from the media and the Street. This stability on the part of non-distressed prices has occurred despite a very high share of distressed activity and continued declines in overall prices.’

I’m not sure where he’s getting that stabilization. CoreLogic reported home prices in September, excluding distressed sales, fell 1.1 percent in September. Their chief economist Mark Fleming cites a supply and demand imbalance and adds, ‘Distressed sales remain a significant share of homes that do sell and are driving home prices overall.’  We obviously have to be very careful reading today’s housing market tea leaves. There are so many different indicators and so many different entities reporting these indicators, that it’s often hard to find out what’s really going on. That’s why I always go back to the Realtors on the front lines. They are telling us that this market, distressed or not, is skittish and undependable. A 20 percent cancellation rate for existing sales is shocking and does not suggest a rebound on the horizon. At best, I’m looking for simple stabilization.”

Euro down against dollar

The euro edged lower on Tuesday, as traders reacted to news that Standard & Poor’s (S&P) put 15 euro-zone countries on a negative “credit watch” late in the prior session.  The euro traded at $1.3369 compared with $1.3386 in North American trade late Monday.  The dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of major rivals, traded at 78.702 compared with 78.654 late Monday.  The move by S&P killed a risk rally that had been fueled in part by a pledge by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy to quickly seek a new treaty that would automatically impose sanctions on violators of the euro zone’s fiscal rules.  The warning applied to triple-A Germany and France and all other euro members other than Cyprus, which was already on negative watch, and Greece, whose CC rating already implies a high probability of default.

Toll Brothers Q4 profits down 70%

Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers said Tuesday its fourth-quarter profit fell about 70% to $15 million, or 9 cents per share, compared to $50.5 million, or 30 cents per share, a year earlier.  The homebuilder said its profit drop is attributed to inventory and joint venture write-downs, as well as debt retirement charges. In addition, the firm enjoyed a significant tax benefit in the fourth-quarter of 2010, which buoyed last year’s 4Q income.  The company said without the charges, fourth-quarter pretax income would have hit $33.9 million, up from $18.1 million last year. On the other hand, the firm’s overall fourth-quarter revenue grew to $427.8 million from $402.6 million last year.  For its entire 2011 fiscal year, which ended Oct. 31, the company earned $39.8 million, or 24 cents per share, compared with a loss of $3.4 million, or 2 cents a share, for fiscal year 2010.  The Horsham, Pa.-based homebuilder experienced another positive in the fourth quarter with home building deliveries hitting $427.8 million and growing to 757 units, compared to $402.6 million and 700 units, a year earlier.  The average fourth-quarter contract price for a Toll Brothers home hit $606,000, up from $565,000 last year, suggesting values are going up in the high-priced home segment.  In the fourth quarter, the firm signed contracts worth $390 million, up 24% from last year.

It’s Obama’s tone, not taxes, says tycoon

Leon Cooperman, a 68-year-old Wall Street veteran, says he is for higher taxes on the wealthy. He would happily give up his Social Security checks. He voted for Al Gore in 2000. He says the special treatment of investment gains, or so-called carried interest, for private equity and hedge fund managers is “ridiculous.” He says he even sympathizes, at least to some extent, with the Occupy Wall Street protesters.  And yet, Mr. Cooperman, a man with a rags-to-riches background who worked at Goldman Sachs for more than 25 years in the 1970s and 1980s before starting his own hedge fund, Omega Advisors, which has minted him an estimated $1.8 billion fortune, is waging a campaign against President Obama.

Last week, in a widely circulated “open letter” to President Obama that whizzed around e-mail inboxes of Wall Street and corporate America, Mr. Cooperman argued that “the divisive, polarizing tone of your rhetoric is cleaving a widening gulf, at this point as much visceral as philosophical, between the downtrodden and those best positioned to help them.”  He went on to say, “To frame the debate as one of rich-and-entitled versus poor-and-dispossessed is to both miss the point and further inflame an already incendiary environment.”  The letter comes as President Obama is planning to give a speech on Tuesday in Osawatomie, Kan., about the economy and the middle class, following in the path of President Theodore Roosevelt, who campaigned a century ago in that very city against the wealthy and big business.  Mr. Cooperman’s complaint has less to do with the substance of taxing the wealthy than it does the president’s choice of words in promoting it, an emphasis that he says is “villainizing the American Dream.”  While many executives have complained about what they perceive as the president’s antibusiness bent, Mr. Cooperman’s letter has gained credibility and attention in political and business circles because of his own seemingly liberal stances on taxes and the like.  He said, in an interview, that he had been deluged with hundreds of e-mails and phone calls about the letter, “99.9 percent of it positive.”

Mr. Cooperman, who recently signed the Giving Pledge, Bill Gates’s and Warren Buffett’s effort to press the world’s billionaires to give away at least half of their wealth, said he felt he came into his money honestly and said proudly, “I spend more than 25 times on charity what I spend on myself.” Asked whether he had received any response from the president for his letter, he replied with a chuckle, “I’m not optimistic I’ll hear from him.”

New Jersey foreclosures wait for deliberations

Hundreds of New Jersey foreclosure cases are waiting in the wings for the state’s Supreme Court to issue what will be a landmark decision in the Garden State.  Legal scholars suggest lenders are waiting to see what the court will do with the U.S. Bank National Association. Guillaume case before moving forward with thousands of pending foreclosures.  The issue in the case causing lenders to pause is the question of whether a foreclosure notice is made invalid because the lender filed a notice of intent to foreclose with the servicer listed on the notice instead of the lender.  In the original complaint, the Guillaume’s argue the lender, U.S. Bank NA, violated the Fair Foreclosure Act by not including the lender’s information in a spot that ended up containing contact information for the servicer.  Linda Fisher, a professor at Seton Hall Law School who has been following the case, said the foreclosure process is “kicked off by filing the notice of intent to foreclose.” Fisher filed an friend-of-the-court brief with the New Jersey Supreme Court in support of the Gillaumes’ claim.  Fisher says the intent to foreclose form has 24 data points, including the name of the lender and contact information for the lender.

The Guillaumes, who challenged the foreclosure on several fronts, initially claimed the lender “violated the FFA because although the notice of intent to foreclose listed plaintiff as the holder of the note, it did not list plaintiff’s address, but rather, listed the address and telephone number” of the servicer.  An appellate court ruled for the lender and against the plaintiffs saying “directing the Guillaumes to contact ASC (or the servicer) fulfilled the purpose of the notice provision under the FFA — making the debtor aware of the situation, and how and who to contact to either cure the default or raise potential disputes.”  But the case now awaits the New Jersey Supreme Court decision, causing some lenders to pause before launching foreclosures.

Fisher said the initial notice of intent to foreclose claimed the servicer was the lender and the holder of the obligation. Later in the case, the issue became the fact that the lender’s name was listed but with the servicer’s address.  “The banks are contending it is OK to enter only the name of the servicer,” Fisher said. “The Guillaumes are saying the servicer is not a substitute for the lender because the statute is quite clear, and it specifically mentions inclusion of the name of the lender.”  Banks are likely delaying some of their foreclosure actions in the state because they want to know how the Supreme Court will rule on this limited issue, Fisher contends. A rule against the lender’s argument could mean banks will have to review their intent to foreclose notices.  Fisher said if it turns out that Guillaume forces the 24 data points to be filled out perfectly, banks will have to retrace their filing steps to ensure they don’t end up facing sanctions.

LPS – house price declines across the board

Lender Processing Services, Inc. (LPS) today announced that its LPS Applied Analytics division updated its home price index (LPS HPI) with residential sales concluded during September 2011. The LPS HPI summarizes home price trends nationwide by tracking sales each month in more than 13,500 ZIP codes. Within each ZIP code, the LPS HPI tracks five price levels from low to high.  “Home prices in September were consistent with the seasonal pattern that has been occurring since 2009,” explained Kyle Lundstedt, managing director for LPS Applied Analytics. “Each year, prices have risen in the spring, but revert in autumn to a downward trend that has not only erased the gains, but has led to an average 3.7 percent annual drop in prices to date. The partial data available for October suggests a further approximate decline of 1.1 percent. Partial data from last month proved to be a good indicator for September’s performance: it showed a preliminary 1.1 percent estimated decline, compared to the 1.2 percent as shown by the full-month’s data.”

The LPS HPI national average home price for transactions during September was $202,000 – a decline of 1.2 percent for the month. As in previous years, this decline follows a 0.9 percent decline during August.  The September national average price is down 1.8 percent from the average price at the beginning of the year.  LPS HPI average national home prices continue the downward trend begun after the market peak in June 2006, when the total value of U.S. housing inventory covered by the LPS HPI stood at $10.6 trillion. The value has declined 30.2 percent since that peak to $7.56 trillion.  During the period of most rapid price declines, from June 2007 through December 2008, the LPS HPI national average home price dropped $56,000 from $282,000, which corresponds to an average annual decline of 13.8 percent.

Since December 2008, prices have fallen more slowly, interrupted by brief seasonal intervals of rising prices. During this period of more slowly declining prices, the national average price has fallen approximately $24,000 from $226,000. This corresponds to an average annual decline of 3.7 percent. The national average home price has declined 4.4 percent over the most recent year to September 2011.  Price changes were consistent across the country during September, declining in all ZIP codes in the LPS HPI. Higher-priced homes had somewhat smaller declines: -1.2% percent for the top 20 percent of homes (prices above $317,000), compared to -1.4 percent for the bottom 20 percent (below $102,000).

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin September 6, 2011

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

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************************************************************

Banks offered deal

Big US banks in talks with state prosecutors to settle claims of improper mortgage practices have been offered a deal to limit part of their legal liability in return for a multibillion dollar payment.  According to five people with direct knowledge of the discussions, state prosecutors have proposed settlement language in the “robosigning” case that also might release the companies from legal liability for wrongful securitization practices.  Some state officials have expressed concern that they have offered the banks far too broad a release from liability. Others say the broad language was perhaps inadvertently crafted and will be tightened as negotiations continue. Participants on both sides stressed the talks remain fluid.  However, the banks – some of whose share prices have been battered by concern about their exposure to mortgage-related litigation – are pressing for immunity from a raft of alleged civil violations and have called the latest proposal a “non-starter”.

They say the proposals from state prosecutors will need to be expanded before striking a deal, which is expected to involve a total penalty of $10 billion to $25 billion.  The two sides will meet again this week to iron out their differences. They are close to an agreement on future standards governing the servicing of home loans, yet remain far apart on other issues, such as legal liability claims, compliance and enforcement, and the amount of cash it will take to settle the allegations.

World Banks sees no recession

World Bank President Robert Zoellick said yesterday that the US economy will likely limp along with slow growth and high unemployment but avoid a recession.  “I don’t believe the US and the world will go into a double-dip, but there is a high degree of uncertainty,” he told reporters in Singapore. “Events in the eurozone can have ripple effects all around the world, not only in terms of financial markets but also confidence, whether it be consumers or businesses.”  Zoellick said European countries may need to deepen fiscal integration — implying governments should sacrifice some control over their budgets so spending policies can be coordinated among countries using the euro.  He said recent government bond purchases by the European Central Bank have provided temporary monetary liquidity to markets.  “The policies that have been pursued by the EU up to now can buy time, but parliaments and the public have to come to terms with fundamental questions,” Zoellick said. “One direction is to deepen the fiscal union.”

Singapore Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who is also chairman of the International Monetary Fund’s policy advisory committee, warned that the EU must solve the structural differences of its members rather than simply react to each new crisis.  “We’ve now reached a critical juncture where further postponement of solutions could lead to the possibility of an outcome that Europe wouldn’t like to contemplate, with very large costs to its citizens,” Tharman said.

WSJ – advertised rate vs what you get

The gap between the lowest advertised mortgage rate and the average rate that borrowers actually get is as high as it has been in two years, save a single week last September. As of last week, the lowest available rate—according to a survey of more than 200 lenders by LendingTree.com—was 3.75% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, but the average rate was 4.39%. At the current 0.64 percentage-point spread, the difference in rates could mean an extra $53,000 in interest payments over the life of a 30-year, $400,000 mortgage.  While there is always a spread—not all borrowers qualify for the lowest rate, after all—it is usually much smaller: An average spread is usually around 0.40 percentage point.  The bigger discrepancy of late has little to do with borrowers’ credit scores, which historically have largely decided what rates lenders choose to offer. Instead, it is more reflective of changes in the way lenders approach their business. Lenders have raised their profit margins by 1.5 to 2 percentage points in the past month, according to Informal Research Services, by offering borrowers slightly higher rates.

Lenders say they haven’t lowered rates further because, simply, they don’t have to. The mortgage market is not the cut-throat business of years past. Most lenders are happy to make mortgages but not at any cost. And there is still plenty of demand given that rates are still historically very low. As it is, lenders are able to make loans that, while still cheap, are more profitable, says Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research and economics at the Mortgage Bankers Association, a trade organization that represents mortgage lenders.  The lowest advertised rates are available for only those borrowers with pristine credit. Anyone else could consider waiting, as the rates they get may be lower as soon as the current surge in demand ebbs, possibly as soon as the end of September. For those looking to refinance or buy a home now, mortgage analysts suggest taking the lowest rate offered and shopping it around to other lenders. In particular, regional, rather than national, outfits, may be more willing to negotiate.

Obama down in the polls ahead of speech

According to a number of polls released yesterday, Barack Obama’s job approval ratings plunged to a new low ahead of his major economic speech Thursday, with widespread discontent among Americans over his handling of the economy and jobs.  An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of 1,000 US adults showed Obama’s overall job approval rating at a low of 44%, down 3 percentage points since July, while his handling of the economy stands at 37%.  An ABC News/Washington Post poll of US adults showed that six in 10 Americans rate the president’s job on the economy and jobs negatively, while one in three say they are now worse off financially since Obama entered the White House. It has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.  A third poll of 1,000 likely voters by Washington-based Politico and George Washington University found that 72% of voters believe the country is either strongly or somewhat headed in the wrong direction, a jump of 12% since last May. That survey’s results have a 3.1 percentage point error margin.  “Obama is no longer the favorite to win re-election,” said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducted the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin August 30, 2011

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

************************************************************

Home prices up, but…

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index shows prices  increased in June from May in 19 of the 20 cities tracked.  A separate figure shows prices rose 3.6% in the April-June quarter from the previous quarter. Those numbers aren’t adjusted for seasonal factors.  Over the past 12 months, home prices have declined in all 20 cities after adjusting for seasonal factors.  Chicago, Minneapolis Washington and Boston posted the biggest monthly increases. Metro areas hit hardest by the housing crisis, including Las Vegas and Phoenix, reported small seasonal increases.

Despite the uptick, the numbers contain “really no hope of any kind of surge,” David Blitzer, S&P Index Chairman David Blitzer said.  “None of the fundamentals look that good,” he said. “People still have difficulty getting mortgage loans, they still have difficulty in refinancing. The banks got a lot tougher and haven’t gotten any easier no matter how you measure.”  Blitzer said the housing market is taking on a more regional perspective, with the Sun Belt continuing to languish and other areas of the country stabilizing.  “You have to look much more into details,” he said. “You’ll some good times here and there but it’s a thin river of hope overall.”

Fed for more “easing?”

According to Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, the Federal Reserve may get even more aggressive in its easing policies than it has been so far unless the economy shows significant improvement.  In his view, QE needs to stay in place until unemployment plunges to 7% or if inflation gets past 3%. Core inflation, which strips out food and transportation, is about 1.8%, though the number is 3.6% including the more volatile measures.  “Strong accommodation needs to be in place for a substantial period of time,” he said. “If we could sort of make everybody understand that this is going to be in place for a longer period of time, we could knock out some of that restraint that comes about when people talk about premature tightening.”  Since the financial crisis hit in 2008, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet past the $2.5 trillion mark and kept its funds rate near zero in an effort to stimulate the economy.  It has not worked – the housing market is worse than Great Depression levels, recent manufacturing readings have been around contraction levels and weekly jobless claims have stayed above 400,000.

NAR – pending sales slip

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, slipped 1.3% to 89.7 in July from 90.9 in June but is 14.4% above the 78.4 index in July 2010. The data reflects contracts but not closings.  The PHSI in the Northeast declined 2.0% to 67.5 in July but is 9.7% above July 2010. In the Midwest the index slipped 0.8% to 79.1 in July but is 18.8% above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South fell 4.8% to an index of 94.4 but are 9.5% higher than July 2010. In the West the index rose 3.6% to 110.8 in July and is 20.6% above a year ago.  Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales activity is underperforming.  He followed that observation with his typical hopefulness:  “The market can easily move into a healthy expansion if mortgage underwriting standards return to normalcy.  [But we] also need to be mindful that not all sales contracts are leading to closed existing-home sales. Other market frictions need to be addressed, such as assuring that proper comparables are used in appraisal valuations, and streamlining the short sales process.”

Irene hits sales

Hurricane Irene hit the US East Coast at the most inopportune time for many businesses, keeping millions of shoppers away from stores and auto dealerships during what should have been a busy weekend.  As much as a fifth of US auto sales are often generated in states affected by Irene, said Paul Taylor, chief economist with the National Automotive Dealers Association. And in those states, August sales will likely be down about 10%.  A bigger problem related to Irene may hurt September sales as well, Taylor said.  “The real issue is going to be flooding,” he said.  The average forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Reuters was 12.1 million vehicles were sold on an annualized basis, up from 11.5 million a year ago, but off slightly from 12.2 million in July.  Honda appears to be struggling the most. Edmunds.com and TrueCar.com expect Honda’s sales for August to drop at least 22% to 25% from last August, and for Toyota’s sales to fall at least 11% to 14%.

Retailers that sell back-to-school items likely felt Irene’s pinch as the storm essentially shut down malls on a weekend when parents normally shop for clothes and notebooks, not bottled water and flashlights.  “This is a major weekend of sales that were planned, but that won’t happen, in one of the most densely populated regions,” said Joel Bines, a managing director of consulting firm AlixPartners.  The damage could take 1%age point off August same-store sales, said Bines, adding that leftover merchandise will likely be discounted, damaging gross margins.  A large portion of back-to-school sales, retailers’ second-most important season after the winter holidays, could be lost for good, especially if it takes time for the transportation infrastructure to get back in place.  “There are millions of dollars in economic activity and productivity that were lost and simply will not and can not be recouped,” said weather tracking firm Planalytics.

Olick – a curious letter

“A borrower in Michigan recently received a letter from his mortgage servicer, CitiMortgage. It offers to discuss foreclosure alternatives, including potential eligibility for the government’s mortgage bailout program. It is clear, succinct, and gives several phone numbers and contact information. The letter includes the borrower’s name, address, and mortgage loan number. It seems quite reasonable…except that the borrower tells me he isn’t and hasn’t been late on any payments.  ‘I called them and they stated they sent this letter out to all mortgage clients,’ the borrower tells me in an email. ‘I am one of these clients and have had no issues with my mortgage, and they get my direct payment on time every month.’  He says that when he called Citi, the operator said it was a, ‘blanket letter and basically junk mail.’  I called Citi to verify the letter, which arrived in an envelope with a Citi logo.

Obviously lenders/servicers have been sending letters to troubled borrowers, offering assistance to avoid foreclosure, but a blanket letter to all borrowers seems a bit much. There have also been a lot of scammers using fake bank logos.  A Citi spokesman says, ‘I don’t believe it went out to all customers. We are not getting reports from our call centers that they are getting any significant number of calls on this. It is likely a coding error that affected some accounts.’  If the letter had gone out to all Citi customers, most of those customers would have called in, fearing there was a mistake and that their properties were being foreclosed improperly. That didn’t happen, so perhaps this one borrower did just get it in error. What’s so interesting/telling, though, is that the operator at Citi who answered the borrower’s call referred to the letter as ‘junk mail,’ as if it makes sense that a mortgage servicer would send out a blanket foreclosure help letter to every one of its customers. Perception versus reality, I suppose.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

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About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin August 29, 2011

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Short sales on the increase

According to RealtyTrac, short sales are increasing as a percentage of home sales in many states, helping some neighborhoods and homeowners avoid the more devastating impacts of foreclosures.  The increases were sharper in some states, including California, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia and Colorado, the data show.  In Colorado, short sales were 17% of all sales in the second quarter, up from 10% a year earlier. In California, they made up 25% of sales, vs. 18%.  Bank of America, the largest home mortgage servicer, expects to complete more than 100,000 short sales this year — more than double what it did in 2009, the bank says.  Wells Fargo Senior Vice President J.K. Huey says short sales have been “steady to slightly” up in recent months, partly because there are fewer bank-owned houses for sale in some markets, and that has forced buyers to pursue more short-sale properties.

In the second quarter, short-sale homes sold at a 21% discount to non-foreclosure homes, while bank-owned homes went at a 40% discount, RealtyTrac says. Short sales may also reduce losses for loan owners because they avoid full foreclosure costs. Borrowers may qualify for new mortgages sooner after a short sale than after a foreclosure.  Short sales peaked at 16% of the market in early 2009, RealtyTrac says. Realtors say there should be more short sales and that they should get done faster.

Consumer spending, inflation, up

The Commerce Department said consumer spending increased 0.8%, the largest gain since a matching increase in February, after slipping 0.1% in June.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected spending, which accounts for about 70% of US economic activity, to rise 0.5%.  When adjusted for inflation, spending rose 0.5% last month, the largest gain since a matching increase in December 2009, after being flat in June.  Spending on durable goods increased 2.0% last month, likely reflecting a pick-up in motor vehicle sales as the shortage of autos caused by the supply disruptions from Japan ease.

Overall spending in July was lifted by a 0.3% rise in income as employers stepped-up hiring. Income rose 0.2% in June and economists had expected a 0.3% increase last month.  Disposable income increased 0.3%, but when adjusted for inflation fell 0.1% – the first decline since September. With spending outstripping real disposable income, savings fell to an annual rate of $582.8 billion from $638.6 billion in June.  The report showed inflation pressures remain elevated. The personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index rose 0.4% after slipping 0.1% in June. Compared to July last year, the index was up 2.8%, the largest increase since October 2008, after advancing 2.6% in June.  The core PCE index—excluding food and energy—rose 0.2% for the second straight month.  The core index, which is closely watched by Federal Reserve officials, increased 1.6% in the 12 months through July, the largest increase since May 2010, after rising 1.4% in June. The Fed would like to see it close to 2%.

Lending shrinks

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch doubt government attempts to improve the mortgage refinancing process will help lenders build capacity.  “The economics of the mortgage lending industry have changed,” the analysts said. “Originators used to have 2-3 points of upside with very little downside. With putback risk taking center stage, they now face 2-3 points of upside and 40-50 points of downside. This change in economics has caused the lending industry to shrink by half.”  BofAML said participation in the government’s HARP has been limited to higher-quality borrowers. Whereas, focusing on refinancing high-loan-to-value and low-FICO borrowers “can have a bigger impact on the economy.” And any new federal effort to boost the number of mortgage refinancings must help build out lending capacity, according to BofAML.  “Lift the specter of putback risk and the pieces fall into place: banks are freed to compete over riskier borrowers; GSEs get updated information about loans on their books and reduced default risk; mortgage financing finds its way to homeowners who have been on the outside; and Washington’s involvement is minimal,” according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Hiring slows

Intuit, a payrolls processing company, said small businesses added 35,000 jobs after increasing employment by 40,000 in July.  The survey is based on responses from about 66,000 employers at businesses with fewer than 20 employees that use the Intuit Online Payroll system and covered the period from July 24 to August 23.  According to a Reuters survey, nonfarm payrolls probably increased 80,000 this month after July’s 117,000 gain.  Three of the 62 economists polled predicted a contraction in nonfarm employment this month, citing the erosion of business confidence and a strike by 45,000 Verizon Communications workers during the payrolls survey period.  They cautioned, however, that a drop in August employment should not be interpreted as a sign the economy was back in recession. The economy grew at a 1% annual rate in the second quarter after expanding only 0.4% in the January to March period.  The average work week for small business employees fell 0.3% to 24.9 hours, according to the Intuit survey, while the average monthly salary eased 0.08% to $2,649.

Irene’s footprint

According to the most recent government model, projected economic loss from wind damage alone is forecast to top $1 billion. That’s less than earlier estimates that topped $2 billion but it does not account for flood and other storm damage.  More than 4 million people up and down the Eastern seaboard are still without power. “For a lot of folks, the danger still exists,” FEMA administrator Craig Fugate told CNN Sunday. “We still will have trees coming down, heavy rain, strong winds.”  So far, the estimates are nowhere near the $45 billion in private insurance damage that Hurricane Katrina left in its wake in 2005 not including flood losses, according to the Insurance Information Institute.  In hurricanes, damages are often caused by coastal flooding, which is typically covered only if you have federal flood insurance.  But damage can also result from gusts of wind that pick up and throw items like lawn chairs and tree limbs through windows. Fallen trees and utility poles can also damage houses and cars.  Damage from wind gusts, downed trees and the like is often covered by car or home insurance; consumers with damages should call their insurer about claims.  “The Mid-Atlantic and New England have experienced damaging hurricanes in the past, and the growth in coastal population and property values makes today’s storms even more costly,” said Consumer Federation of America Institute president Robert Hartwig in a statement on Thursday.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2010.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com