Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin March 22, 2011
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9.6% Dip In Existing Home Sales
Sales of existing homes fell in February after three straight monthly increases. According to the National Association of Realtors, homes sold at an annual rate of 4.88 million in February, went down 9.6% from January and 2.8% lower than February 2010 sales. The dip was much worse than what was predicted. “Housing affordability conditions have been at record levels and the economy has been improving, but home sales are being constrained,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. As the credit market tightens, the recovery road looks rocky. There is a record level of all-cash purchases as investors are making a killing of homes at bargain prices, as inventory rose to 3.49 million units… Traditional home buyers are expected to return only when mortgage credit conditions return to being normal.
Fed’s Fisher Opposes Extension of QE2
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he opposes any extension of the Fed’s asset purchase program after June, saying inflationary pressures are building “world-wide.” “No further accommodation is needed after June. We can no longer press on the monetary pedal,” Fisher said in a speech at Goethe University in Frankfurt. Fisher has been skeptical of the program, dubbed QE2, saying two weeks ago, that it should prove “demonstrably counterproductive,” and it would be better to discontinue it. Last week, the Fed voted to maintain its key lending target near zero and maintain its planned $600 billion in Treasury purchases through June. As the Fed’s rate-setting board voted to continue the program, he warned of speculative excesses that may be contributing to the rise in oil prices. “We are seeing the signs of all the intoxication” that arises from cheap and available capital, Fisher said.
Diana Olick – Existing-Home Sales Plunge, Setback for Housing Recovery
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell unexpectedly sharply in February and prices touched their lowest level in nearly nine years, implying a housing market recovery was still a long off. The National Association of Realtors said Monday sales fell 9.6 percent month over month to an annual rate of 4.88 million units, snapping three straight months of gains. The percentage decline was the largest since July. Economists polled by Reuters had expected February sales to fall 4.0 percent to a 5.15 million-unit pace from the previously reported 5.36 million unit rate in January, which was revised slightly up to 5.40 million.
Oversupply of homes and a relentless wave of foreclosures are pressuring prices, holding back recovery in the sector, whose collapse helped to tip the U.S. economy into its worst recession since the 1930s. Foreclosures and short sales, which typically occur below market value, accounted for 39 percent of transactions in February, up from 37 percent the prior month. All-cash purchases made up a record 33 percent of transactions in February. Sales last month fell across the board, with multifamily dwellings declining 10 percent and single-family home units dropping 10.0 percent. At February’s sales pace, the supply of existing homes on the market rose to 8.6 months’ worth from 7.5 in January. A supply of between six and seven months is generally considered ideal, with higher readings pointing to lower house prices.
Chaotic Foreclosures Rock Shadow Inventory
Foreclosure time lines and an abundance of distressed home sales are causing wide fluctuations in shadow inventory across the country. On the whole, it is estimated that 5.3 million homes are in limbo between foreclosure and the sales market. Standard & Poor’s states it could take up to 49 months to clearn the shadow inventory. NAR quotes that Florida with 441,000 residential properties has the largest shadow inventory, followed by California with 228,000. Generally shadow inventory properties are sold as distressed sales. The growing shadow inventories are attributed to the recent disruptions to foreclosure time lines. The length of foreclosure process in Florida and California jumped 156% and 157% respectively since 2008. Florida and California are expected to take 29 and 11 months respectively to clear their shadow inventory.
Discounts Expected in Spring Housing Market
As the market readies for its busiest season, sales of previously owned homes fell sharply in February, setting the stage for steep discounting in the spring market. The silver lining, say economists, is that bargain prices, coupled with low interest rates, might finally spur some buyers off the fence. Even without the $8,000 federal tax credit industry watchers predict a larger number of transactions this year. Still, Monday’s data painted a picture of pain and price declines that have spared no region. “The housing market is still clearly years away from staging any meaningful recovery,” Toronto-based Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients. Some builders of new homes are increasing discounts on residences and boosting commissions to brokers.
Overall, February’s weakness could have been driven by bad weather, deals canceled over lowball appraisals and a higher number of distress sales, according to the National Association of Realtors. A third of transactions were all-cash sales, and investors accounted for 19% of February sales activity, down from 23% in January. Low prices in many markets also reflect a new reality as sellers finally give in and reduce the asking prices on their homes in hopes of a fast deal. Economists say the number of distressed sales will continue to rise, and put pressure on prices. But mortgage rates, which were trending upward during the fall and winter months, have been falling in recent weeks amid global turmoil over the crises in Japan.
DSNews.com – Delinquencies and Foreclosure Inventories decline
In what can be viewed as an anomaly of the current housing crisis, Lender Processing Services Inc (LPS) reported that the total loan delinquency rate for the U.S. mortgage market dropped to 8.80 percent. LPS calculates this stat based on loans that are 30 or more days past due, but not yet moved into foreclosure. The company’s statistics are derived from its loan-level database of nearly 40 million mortgage loans. The analytics firm reports that the total loan delinquency rate for the U.S. mortgage market dropped to 8.80 percent.
According to the firm, foreclosure activity was bottlenecked last fall when the news of improper affidavit filings surfaced and several large servicers temporarily froze proceedings to review internal processes, causing foreclosure inventory numbers to swell as loans languished in the pipeline. LPS reports the states with the highest ratio of non-current loans – meaning the combined percentage of both foreclosures and delinquencies – are Florida, Nevada, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Georgia and those with the lowest percentage of non-current loans included Montana, Wyoming, Arkansas, South Dakota, and North Dakota.
Now on to our real estate investor news…
Bird Dog Ratio’s
There is a great deal of interest in becoming a bird dog and with good reason; six-figure income, zero start-up costs and extremely low risk make it a win-win for everyone involved. Unfortunately, a few less than scrupulous real estate guru’s have been promoting a bird dog type program that is long on promises and short on results. Now, we adhere to that old rule about “not saying nothing if you don’t have anything good to say” so our lips are mum on the offending party. However, in an effort to educate our readers, it is important to understand one ratio that will help prevent people from falling victim to promises that sound too good to be true.
Pay to Play
One of the newer twists to the bird dog field is the idea that you can pay to play with big investors. At first glance, it sounds like a great idea; you get direct contact with investors that have a proven track record and access to sufficient funding to close as many deals as they desire. The investors get to cherry pick the absolute best of the best properties by having a lot of eyes and ears scouring the area for the best properties.
But is the pay to play program everything it seems? It depends.
A Numbers Game
Like anything in real estate, it boils down to the numbers. Before paying anyone to become part of their bird-dog program, stop and do the math. For example, if someone is promoting a pay to play bird-dog program to 100 people who sign-up to participate, that is a lot of people going after the same properties in each area. Let’s just assume that each person averages ten different deals per year…with over 1,000 different properties to choose from, the chances of your property being selected is fairly minimal if the investor only buys 10 per year. It’s not bad if they buy 100 per year. As an example, one acquisition manager for a well known real estate investor said they evaluated over 1,000 deals a year and selected a couple of dozen at best. How does this translate to the average bird dog investor? Not all that well. By paying to play, you may actually be putting yourself at a distinct disadvantage rather than the desired advantage.
Use the Rules to Your Advantage
The solution? Simple. Use the rules to your advantage. Find out how many properties the investor buys each year as compared to the number of bird-dogs that are enrolled in any pay to play program. This is a “must know” ratio to determine prior to signing-up.
See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin
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About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.
* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!
* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
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