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Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, March 12, 2010

by admin on March 12, 2010

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Delinquencies on jumbo loans continue to rise

Jumbo mortgages are those with an initial principal amount of over $417,000 (in most areas of the U.S. or over $729,750 in certain specified areas), a limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Fitch Ratings, a credit rating agency, says the performance of prime jumbo loan performance in the residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) category dropped again in January as serious delinquencies (60+ days past due) rose for the 32nd consecutive month and edged closer to 10%. Prime jumbo loan delinquencies have been rising since the second quarter of 2007. In 2009, the delinquency rate nearly tripled during the year. The serious delinquencies rose to 9.6% in January from 9.2% in December.

“The new year has brought no relief from declining jumbo loan performance,” said Fitch managing director Vincent Barberio. “The trend line for delinquencies indicates the 10% level could be reached as early as next month.” California, which has a 44% share of the total jumbo market, saw the delinquency rate rising to 11.3% in January from 10.8% in December. Delinquency rates rose in 4 other states – New York, Florida, Virginia, and New Jersey — which along with California constitute the top 5 states in market share. The jumbo market in the country is valued at $376 billion and dropping. Grant Bailey, a senior director for the RMBS group at Fitch, said: “In the 05, 06, 07 vintages, close to 50% of borrowers are underwater. That keeps a negative pressure on borrowers and, therefore, we keep a negative outlook on delinquencies.”

Mortgage rate continues to remain below 5%

A survey released by Freddie Mac says interest rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.95% for the week ending March 11, down from the previous week’s 4.97%. “During a light week of mixed economic reports, mortgage rates eased somewhat,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Analysts believe mortgage rates will rise as the year progresses. I still think rates are going up as the rest of the year goes on,” said George Mokrzan, senior economist at Huntington National Bank. “The odds, at this point, point to an improving economy and with that rising interest rates in general.” Homeowners seem to be adopting a wait and watch approach as home inventory rises. Diane Saatchi, senior vice president at Saunders & Associates, said: “Prices will not tick up until buyers agree to pay above six month-ago prices, and it will happen, but meanwhile sellers who want to sell now, need to give in to the market, not their hopes.” The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.32% in the latest week, down from 4.33% the prior week.

Home price decline slows down

Real estate website Trulia.com says homeowners cut prices for about 19% of listings as of March 01, down by 10% from the previous month. This is the first time price reduction levels have dropped below 20% in almost a year. “Consumer engagement on Trulia remains at an all time high, but home sales have dropped nationally during the past few months because there has been a lower sense of urgency to ‘buy now’,” said Pete Flint, Trulia co-founder and CEO. “As we get closer to the government incentives running out, we expect price reductions to increase as sellers begin to feel the pressure to lure buyers in, in advance of the tax credit expiration.” The average discount for a median house was 11% from the original value. The latest data confirms the downward trend in listing price reductions from the beginning of this year. Trulia.com says homes priced at $1 million and above were discounted at an average rate of 14% on the original list price. Trulia collects data from brokers and agents, third-party providers and multiple-listing services. Undeveloped land and foreclosed properties are excluded from the survey.

Green homes do not find favor with appraisers

Homeowners looking to buy green homes are finding it difficult to convince appraisers to consider the value of energy efficiency equipment while processing the loan application. Lower appraisal value means higher down payment for borrowers. Analysts say this could have a negative impact on equipment manufacturers. “We can’t get lenders to appreciate the value, and if we can’t get the values recognized, manufacturers can’t justify moving these products forward,” said Bill Nolan, a home building consultant. Appraisers say they cannot do much to help. If an equipment costs $50,000 at the time of installation and fetches only $25,000 on resale, the appraisal cannot reflect the full $50,000 value. “It doesn’t do a lot of good to simply add value based on cost,” said David Snook, an appraiser who serves on the real property committee on education for the American Society of Appraisers. “The question is ‘How much will the market pay on resale?’” Homeowners say there is a dearth of appraisers who fully understand how going green adds value. Analysts believe the market participants will appreciate the need for going green in the medium to long-term. “As more American homeowners green their homes, there will be more and more of a premium paid for green homes,” said Ben Kaufman, founder of GreenWorks Realty. “I can imagine a miles-per-gallon type sticker on homes for sale and the marketplace will absolutely favor fuel-efficient homes.”

Retail sales rise unexpectedly in February

According to data released by the Commerce Department, retail sales rose 0.3% in February; this is the fourth gain in the last 5 months. Retail sales excluding autos rose 0.8%. The rise well exceeded estimates made by analysts who expected the winter storms to have a negative impact on retail sales and estimated a drop of 0.2% in retail sales. “The storms were apparently not quite as disruptive as anticipated,” said Adam York, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities. Analysts say consumer spending, which is critical to economic recovery, is showing encouraging signs. “As we start adding jobs in the spring, employees will gain income and hours and retail sales should follow,” said York. Ten of 13 major categories reported an increase in sales in February. Sectors that reported sales increases included restaurants and bars, 0.9%; electronic and appliance stores, 3.7%; food and beverage stores, 1.3%; clothing stores, 0.6%; general merchandise stores, 1.0%; sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores, 1.2%; building material and garden supplies dealers, 0.5% and furniture retailers, 0.7%. Retail sales data are an important indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes 70% of the U.S. economy.

Now on to our real estate investing educational section…

Friday File – 15 Minute Resolution & $50,000

Ever wish you had an extra $5,000, $15,000 or even $50,000 available?  It’s not as difficult as you might imagine. Whether using the funds toward a down payment or making necessary repairs, an extra $15,000 or $20,000 tucked away for a rainy day comes in handy for any short sale investor.

This week’s 15 minute short sale resolution will show you how to create an emergency “slush fund” that is able to provide an additional $1k to $25k without the need to work a second (or third) job or other drastic measures. Like most tools, there is a cost for the convenience so it’s not necessarily something you will use every day…just keep this in the sideline for those “must have” deals.

  1. Collect your driver license and bank account information.
  2. Sit down at the computer and sign-up for a borrower account with one of the peer-to-peer lending sites; www.Prosper.com and www.LendingClub.com are perhaps the most well known and widely used. Typically new borrowers have better luck getting access to quick funding with a larger pool of potential lenders.
  3. Start Small! Take out a small loan at first then pay it back promptly to begin building a better reputation and payment history. This will allow you to borrow larger sums at better interest rates later.
  4. Set-up an automatic repayment schedule with your bank. Automate the repayment schedule so it’s never late and doesn’t require any additional time out of your schedule.
  5. Repeat the process. Once you have built up a sufficient reputation and are able to borrow up to $25,000 at one peer to peer lending site, repeat the process at another. Remember, start slowly with a small loan, repay it then move on to a larger loan in order to build a solid reputation. Eventually you find it relatively simple to borrow up to $25,000 per site whenever desired.

Peer to peer lending is a simple yet effective way to obtain a “signature loan” without the headache and hassle of going to a big bank or trying to save substantial sums that could be used to finance your next short sale property. Despite the relatively higher interest rates, p2p lending provides a fantastic option for short sale investors in need of fast cash. Take 15 minutes to set up the initial account and chances are you will be pleasantly surprised how fast you can have access to serious sums of cash by the end of this year!

For those searching for other funding mechanisms, be sure to join our webinar or sign-up for additional information.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

{ 0 comments }

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, March 11, 2010

by admin on March 11, 2010

Forward this e-mail to your friends!  Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:  http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–> http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–> http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

******************************************************

Integrate the 4 Hour Workweek into Your Real Estate Business:

How to make a 6-figure income working less than 60-minutes a day

How NOT to do the things you don’t like in your business (like making phone calls to sellers, buyers, Realtors, etc.)

How to do ONLY the things you like and are good at so you become more profitable

How to find $2 per hour virtual assistants who do a bang-up job than most $20 per hour “professionals”

Join us TONIGHT at 8:30 PM ET, 5:30 PM PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/569093555

******************************************************

Mortgage applications continue to rise

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications – which includes both purchase and refinance loans – rose 0.5% for the week ended March 5. The rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, rose 0.06% from the previous week to an average of 5.01%. Analysts expect mortgage rates to rise as the Federal Reserve stops buying mortgage securities end March. “The Fed will likely take a step back to see if the private sector steps up and starts purchasing the bonds,” said Bill Emerson, CEO of Quicken Loans. “If they do not, mortgage rates could move significantly higher.” Home prices may not rise significantly any time soon given the inventory overhang in the market. Emerson said the housing “inventory will pressure prices, so, many people are sidelined right now, waiting for prices to fall further.” The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications decreased 1.5% last week. The refinance share of mortgage activity dropped 67.2% from 69.1% the previous week. The fixed 15-year mortgage rate averaged 4.32%, up from 4.27% the previous week.

Foreclosures rise 6%, the smallest annual increase in 4 years

According to data released by RealtyTrac, foreclosures increased 6% from the year-ago level in February; this is the smallest annual increase in 4 years. Over 308,000 households with loans received a foreclosure filing in February; this was a drop of over 2% from January. Analysts say the drop in foreclosure rate does not necessarily mean that homeowners are seeing any better times. “This leveling of the foreclosure trend is not necessarily evidence that fewer homeowners are in distress and at risk for foreclosure, but rather that foreclosure prevention programs, legislation and other processing delays are in effect capping monthly foreclosure activity,” said James J. Saccacio, RealtyTrac Chief Executive Officer. Nevada saw the highest foreclosure rate in February with 1 in 102 households receiving a filing. Nevada was followed by Arizona, Florida, California and Michigan. Can we expect to see a further drop in foreclosure in the coming months? “It’s premature to declare victory just yet,” said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president for RealtyTrac.

Borrowers unable to refinance at lower rates

Credit Suisse, an investment bank, says about 37% of all borrowers with 30-year fixed rate mortgages pay 6% or higher on their mortgage. The mortgage rates are currently at 5%. If only the borrowers can refinance their mortgage, they would save 0.50% to 0.75% on their mortgage cost. Given the outstanding loan amount of $1.2 trillion on mortgages with rates of 6% or more, the potential savings run into billions of dollars. “Traditionally, these borrowers would be aggressively refinancing,” said Mahesh Swaminathan, senior mortgage strategist at Credit Suisse. But given the negative home equity (over 25% of mortgage holders are currently “underwater”) prevailing in the housing market, tightening of lending norms by banks, unemployment and declining incomes, homeowners are unable to take advantage of the fall in mortgage rates. Some analysts say hike in loan fees imposed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after delinquencies rose has also deterred homeowners from going for refinancing. Alan Boyce, a mortgage-securities-market expert, says loan fees are partly “responsible for why there’s been no refi boom.”

Unemployment hits a record high in some states

The Labor Department says the jobless rate hit a record high in five states —California (12.5%), South Carolina (12.6%), Florida (11.9%), Georgia (10.4%) and North Carolina (11.1%) – in January. All told, 30 states and the District of Columbia saw a rise in jobless rate in January over the previous month. Nine states reported a decrease and 11 states had no change in unemployment. In January, fewer states showed an increase in unemployment rate compared to December, when 43 states showed an increase in jobless rates. “It shows that the labor market is virtually frozen,” said Nick Colas, chief market strategist at the ConvergEx Group. Colas said that “there has not been any dramatic change in these past six weeks.” The states with the highest jobless rate were Michigan (14.3%), Nevada (13%), Rhode Island (12.7%), South Carolina (12.6%) and California (12.5%). North Dakota had the lowest jobless rate at 4.2%, followed by Nebraska (4.6%) and South Dakota (4.8%). States which have a high industrial activity seem to be benefiting from a rebound in overseas demand. The “most stable economies are those more exposed to manufacturing,” said Steven Cochrane, director of regional economics at Moody’s Economy.com. “This is a recovery that’s really kind of concentrated.”

TARP watchdog finds fault with GMAC bailout

The Congressional Oversight Panel for the Troubled Asset Relief Program has questioned the Bush administration’s decision to rescue GMAC, the auto and home lender, in December 2008. The panel said GMAC received significant bailout money from the government though it was “a company that apparently posed no systemic risk to the financial system, that did not seem to be too big to fail, too interconnected to fail, or indeed, of any systemic significance.” The government now owns about 56.3% stake in GMAC and analysts estimate that the company may never repay $6.3 billion the company received as part of the bailout package. The panel also said that the Treasury Department treated GMAC with lot more lenience than it did General Motors and Chrysler. The panel said that “half-hearted attempts at saving an institution from insolvency that lack coordination among regulators” might be more costly than a full bailout or bankruptcy. The Treasury has defended its decision to rescue GMAC, saying it was “the least costly and least disruptive of all the options available.

Now on to our real estate investing educational section…

Fiscal Survival of the Fittest

Survival of the fittest applies to economics as well as biology – in fact, some would argue the concept is better applied to the financial arena than any other area of study. Unfortunately, it’s a fact few Americans want to face head on…it goes against the steady diet of “American ingenuity” and the (false) belief that any child born in the good old USA can grow up to be anything they want. While there are exceptions to every rule, survival of the fittest is an economic trend currently undergoing the equivalent of an ice-age extinction as one era gives rise to an entirely new one. Research by consulting firm McKinsey found a few unsettling statistics that demonstrate the depth of the problem:

Over 70 percent of currently employed Americans work in jobs for which there is low or declining demand. This includes both blue collar and white collar. Competition for jobs that cannot be shipped overseas (healthcare for example) has created high competition which is driving down wages and promoting part-time, per diem and other “job sharing” situations.

Mainstream stores are doing double-takes as consumers shift spending habits. Not only are brick and mortar stores under heavy competition from online retailers like Amazon but the bleak economy is finally taking a toll. Violating one of the core marketing principles ‘never undercut your own product’, heavy weight’s ranging from Proctor & Gamble to Macy’s are rolling out discount versions of their more expensive popular items. Cost of Tide got you down? Don’t worry, you can now buy Tide Basic…a discount version. Research shows 1/2 of Americans have already reduced spending and 1/3 plan to do so permanently with 18 percent of consumer switching from name brands to generics in the past two years alone.

So, how are Americans spending their money both today and into the near future?

1. Nearly 34 percent of the average household income goes toward housing. Expect this trend to continue as people downsize into affordable housing options.

2. Just over 19 percent goes toward entertainment and/or miscellaneous items…however, as a discretionary item this is subject to volatility.

3. Roughly 17 percent goes toward transportation – a number experts expect to hold steady as people opt for more affordable options.

4. Just under 13 percent goes toward food; a necessity to be sure but one that is subject to “replacement” purchases as people opt for hamburger instead of steak during tough times.

5. Approximately 11 percent on retirement and personal insurance.

6. Nearly 6 percent on healthcare.

Even a precursory look at where Americans spend their money tells the average investor where to spend theirs…housing, entertainment, transportation, food, financial products and healthcare. Those are the big six that run the American economy. Now stop and consider which are available to the average “little guy” investor…stocks and bonds for healthcare, insurance and finance have been decimated in recent years. The auto industry? Please! Now that’s it’s been nationalized you can count on the same efficiency that brought you the driver license office to run the auto industry. Food is notoriously volatile and forget direct intervention unless you have an unusual level of gardening know how. No, the answer remains the same today as it did 100 years ago…real estate. It’s not easily outsourced, it’s not subject to the market manipulations of stocks and bonds nor is it entirely dependent upon your ability to work yourself into an early grave. It simply requires a willingness to adapt to the new economic environment like all other species that learn to thrive or barely survive.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

{ 0 comments }

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, March 10, 2010

by admin on March 10, 2010

Forward this e-mail to your friends!  Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:  http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–> http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–> http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

******************************************************

Integrate the 4 Hour Workweek into Your Real Estate Business:

How to make a 6-figure income working less than 60-minutes a day

How NOT to do the things you don’t like in your business (like making phone calls to sellers, buyers, Realtors, etc.)

How to do ONLY the things you like and are good at so you become more profitable

How to find $2 per hour virtual assistants who do a bang-up job than most $20 per hour “professionals”

Join us tomorrow (Thursday) at 8:30 PM ET, 5:30 PM PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/569093555

******************************************************

Commercial and multifamily mortgage delinquency among the lowest

According to a survey conducted by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA), delinquency of commercial and multifamily mortgages, of over 30 days, was lower than the average of all loans held by banks end 2009. Commercial mortgages had a delinquency rate of 5.06% while multifamily mortgage delinquency stood at 5.64%, the overall average delinquent rate was 7.3%. Single-family mortgages had 12.49% delinquency rate. The rate of charge offs – provision made in balance sheets when loans are written off – was 0.8% of the balance of commercial mortgages and 1.1% of multifamily mortgages. These rates compare with 1.7% of residential mortgages, 2.4% of home equity loans, 3% of non-credit-card consumer loans, 5.4% of construction loans and 9.1% of credit card loans. “Commercial and multifamily mortgages provide security to their lenders in that a) even when under stress the commercial property continues to provide some level of income to help pay its debt service, except in the most extreme situations, and b) for every loan there is a real, tangible asset pledged as collateral should the loan become delinquent,” said the MBA. “For these reasons, commercial and multifamily mortgages have historically not experienced the same rate of losses as most other types of loans.”

Apollo to buy Citi’s real estate unit

Citigroup, which has received substantial bailout money from the government, is under pressure to sell its non-core assets to strengthen its balance sheet. As part of asset restructuring, Citi has sold off many proprietary trading businesses, including the Philbro energy trading unit, and plans to focus on trading services for clients. Last week Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit informed a congressional panel that Citi was focused on “back-to-basics” banking. Citigroup is in talks with Apollo Management to hive off its real estate investment unit. The deal includes 65 investments in 26 countries. “Apollo is getting a lot of good assets with a lot of good sponsors because I think Citi was good at it,” said Gary Mozer, principal at George Smith Partners, a real estate investment banking firm. “They were just a victim of the times.” Citi’s real estate unit has more than 90 professionals and manages about $12.5 billion in gross real estate assets. Apollo’s real estate assets will more than triple once the deal is consummated. Apollo has signed a letter of intent and plans to retain Citi’s staff. The deal is likely to take 3 months to close.

A $6 billion program for energy efficiency in homes

President Obama is hopeful that the so-called Homestar program – which will offer rebates to homeowners of energy efficient homes – will create energy savings for U.S. consumers and offer environmental benefits. Under the program, rebates would be offered on energy efficient home HVAC equipment and water heaters, as well as insulation and windows and doors. “I’m convinced that the country that leads in clean energy is also going to be the country that leads in the global economy,” Obama said recently. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) believes that every $1 billion in remodeling and home improvement activity generates 11,000 jobs, $527 million in wages and salaries, and $300 million in business income. “This has the potential to be a real shot in the arm for the home building industry,” said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones. “It will help put America back to work and it will help families save on monthly energy bills.” Homeowners can choose to get the Silver Star rating which will consist of rebates of 50% of the cost for upgrades for a total of up to $1,000 or $1,500 or Gold star rating which will get them a $3,000 rebate plus additional amounts for any energy savings above 20%. “The majority of money is targeted to silver-star rebates,” said Steve Cowell, CEO of Conservation Services Group.

Job openings rise 7.6%

The Labor Department has said the number of job openings in January rose 7.6%, to 2.7 million, compared to December; this is the highest total since February 2009. Analysts say as many as 300,000 jobs may be added in March, a four-year high, giving rise to a hope of sustained employment gains and economic recovery. Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities, says a 450,000 payroll gain in March “can’t be ruled out,” and job gains are “going to convince people of the sustainability and durability of the recovery.” Some economists have cautioned that the job gains may not happen at a rapid pace. “It’s getting better, though not as quickly as you’d like,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak. Indeed.com, which tracks job openings in 12 industries, said last week that 10 of the 12 industries posted more job openings in February than they did a year ago. “We have seen a sharp turnaround in the job market in the last few months,” said Paul Forster, CEO of Indeed.com. Among the 12 industries, hospitality and retail industries – which are critical to economic recovery – saw the biggest gains in job openings last month. When the recession began 1.7 people were competing for each opening. There are now 5.5 unemployed people, on average, competing for each job opening, against just over 6 people per opening in December 2009.

Investments in “high-yield” municipal bonds rise

According to Standard & Poor, a rating agency, high-yield municipal bonds which are some 10 levels below investment grade debt – those that assure timely interest payment and principal repayment – have yielded 31% in the last 12 months compared to 11% from investment-grade municipal securities. Lured by the high yields, investors poured over $7.8 billion into high-yield municipal bonds in 2009. Analysts say yields are high because of high risk premium (read, high likelihood of default) associated with such securities and investors should be wary of the bubble that is building up. “People are starving for yield because rates are at zero,” said Paul Tramontano, co-chief executive officer of Constellation Wealth Advisors. “They’re taking more risk than they think.” High-yield municipal funds had $49.3 billion in assets as of January, the most since November 2007, according to Morningstar. While states and local governments – borrowers that issue municipal bonds — can raise taxes and cut services to meet interest obligations, investors should do their own research before buying a high-yield bond, said Lynette Hotchkiss of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board. “Make sure you understand the credit of the issuer, the source of repayment for the bond and the priority of repayment,” Hotchkiss said. “Where I get worried is when Mom and Pop get interested in chasing yield,” Hotchkiss said. “It’s very intoxicating.”

Now on to our real estate investing educational section…

Who Walks? A Look at Strategic Default by Loan Type

Most people immediately think of sub-prime loans when the issue of strategic default is brought up but as every short sale investor knows, high risk borrowers are not the only people walking away from under-water mortgages. In fact, financial experts are noticing never before seen trends among even the wealthiest borrowers. Find out the facts about who walks by comparing strategic defaults by loan types:

Fixed Rate vs Option ARM’s

According to J.P. Morgan, 27 percent of borrowers owe more on their mortgage than the property is worth but only about 20 percent of them will do so over the next five years if inflation stays at or above 3 percent per year. If inflation is able to hold steady, the number of underwater borrowers will shrink from 27 percent to only 10 percent in that same five year period of time. For those that remain underwater, the difference or “incentive” is roughly $40,500 for fixed interest rate borrowers and $105,500 for Option ARM borrowers.

It will come as no surprise that Option ARM borrowers walk at nearly twice the rate of fixed interest rate borrowers….the banks know this and so should short sale investors. All things equal, a seller with an option ARM is a much higher default risk and typically owes significantly more on the property than a homeowner with a fixed rate mortgage. Which do you think the lender will be more likely to want off their portfolio as soon as possible?

Second LIens & Non Agency Loans

In an unusual turn of events, BofA recently decided to share some telling data on securitized non-agency loan performance including these startling statistics:

  • Nearly 60% of prime borrowers have a second lien
  • Over 50% of Alt-A borrowers have a second lien
  • Over 46% of Option ARM borrowers have a second lien
  • Nearly 25% of subprime borrowers have a second lien

When the primary mortgage plus any secondary loans were compared to the current value of the property, it was found that only 45% of prime borrowers retained any equity in their homes, just under 39% of Alt-A borrowers and only 19% of Option ARM borrowers. Surprisingly, almost 42% of subprime borrowers still had equity apparently due to their inability to obtain large amounts of credit to begin with. Savvy short sale investors should recognize the strategic default potential of high income, favorable credit homeowners in addition to the typical high risk or subprime market.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

{ 0 comments }

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, March 9, 2010

by admin on March 9, 2010

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“Lazy Person’s Way to Pre-Foreclosure Riches”

Since putting this system to work instead of me, I’m

slaving away at the beach with sun screen on my arms,

and my cell phone at my ear for a full, uh, 20 hours

a week.

Life’s not so tough when others willingly do your work.

And the earnings?  Out of this world!  See how I do it

anywhere I want from my iPhone… and it won’t cost you

a cent Tuesday at 3 PM ET, NOON PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/241411282

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Now on to our real estate investing educational section…

Home supply rises 4.2%

According to data compiled by ZipRealty, inventory of homes — single-family homes, condominiums and town houses listed on local multiple-listing services — in 27 major metropolitan areas rose 4.2% in February from a month earlier. The inventory in February dropped 19% year-over-year. The figures compiled by ZipRealty may not present the exact level of supply since half of foreclosed homes are not included on multiple-listing services at any given time on account of such homes awaiting repairs or being subject to litigation. Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm, says the average increase in home inventory in February has been 3.4%, over the past 27 years. Analysts say the housing inventory could be much higher than what is reported, and a large supply of unsold homes could hit market recovery. David Moon, president of Moon Capital Management, says the housing inventory data does not account for “properties on which the loans are seriously delinquent and those that already are in the foreclosure process but not for sale. Banks often have houses in their real estate owned portfolios that aren’t yet on the market.” 

Will foreign investment help commercial real estate?

“A wave of commercial real estate loan failures could threaten America’s already-weakened financial system … and… trigger economic damage that could touch the lives of nearly every American,” according to a recent Congressional Oversight Panel report. As troubled loans running into billions of dollars come due in the next few years, the industry is facing the prospect of a huge wave of defaults. A recently proposed legislation seeks to attract foreign investment to the commercial real estate sector to provide the much needed liquidity for the sector. In January, Joseph Crowley, a Democratic congressman, introduced the Real Estate Revitalization Act of 2010 which seeks to eliminate certain taxes that were part of the Foreign Investment Real Estate Property Tax of 1980 (FIRPTA). FIRPTA requires foreign investors to pay as high as a 55% tax on capital gains from the sale of U.S. real estate or shares in real estate investment trusts. Supporters of the bill say that by repealing the tax, the country would attract significant foreign investment. “We’re talking about bringing in foreign investment to be on equal footing if they invest in real estate versus non real estate,” says Jeffrey DeBoer, chief executive of the Real Estate Roundtable, a real estate think tank. Many property owners are now facing debt calls on account of property prices having fallen about 40% from their peak, and the commercial mortgage-backed securities market has dried up. Real estate loans to the extent of $1.4 trillion will come due between 2010 and 2014, and about 50% of those loans are currently “underwater.” If the bill is passed, Real Estate Investment Trusts could benefit significantly.

Bair says consumers did not understand subprime mortgages

Sheila Bair, the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) has said there is “ample evidence that consumers did not understand the consequences of the subprime and nontraditional mortgages that were sold to them.” In a speech to the National Association of Business Economics, Bair has called for greater consumer protection in financial services and said the information flow among the different market participants should significantly improve. “Economists understand a great deal about the effects of asymmetric information, and how it can prevent markets from existing in the first place or from operating efficiently,” Bair said. “In this light, I think there is a strong case to be made that basic consumer protections help markets function better by reducing information gaps between lenders and borrowers.” Commenting on failures of large financial firms, Bair said the typical resolution should not be a bailout using public money, but should be a mechanism which would ensure that shareholders and creditors take the losses.

 Small business optimism slips

According to a survey conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), its index measuring sentiment among small business owners dropped 1.3 points to a reading of 88.0 in February, from January. Incidentally, a value of 90 in the index indicates an expectation of positive growth. The index has remained at 90 for 17 straight months, and below 90 in all but 4 months since January 2008. The survey said small business owners cited weak sales as their biggest concern. The poor outlook on demand is driving small business owners to liquidate inventories and go slow on ordering new stocks. “Something is preventing owners from ‘pulling the trigger,’ said William Dunkelberg, chief economist for NFIB.”Very few owners felt that growth opportunities were solid enough to warrant expansion.” Only about 9% of the respondents said they were hampered by lack of credit. “Credit access is not a major factor holding up economic growth, at least the kind of growth we want,” said Dunkelberg.

Hiring outlook worsens

According to a quarterly survey by Manpower, a consultancy, employers in the U.S. are less willing to hire workers in the coming 3 months than they were 3 months ago. Some 17 million Americans are currently unemployed and the survey results do not indicate any optimism on employment. The survey is based on interviews with 18,000 managers responsible for hiring workers and measures the difference between those who say they will add to their workforce and those who plan cuts. About 73% reported no change in their hiring outlook, matching last quarter’s record. “There is some demand, so (employers) won’t let people go, but not enough confidence to do hiring,” Manpower Chief Executive Jeff Joerres said. According to Joerres, the U.S. economy is caught in a vicious cycle – companies will not add capacity and hire workers until demand improves, while consumers will not buy until unemployment falls and incomes improve. Joerres argued for continued government stimulus until the economic situation improves. “A snail’s pace recovery is (equivalent to) falling back,” Joerres said. “A very slow recovery is dangerous.”

 See you at the top!

 Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

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Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, March 5, 2010

by admin on March 5, 2010

Forward this e-mail to your friends!  Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:  http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–> http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–> http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

******************************************************

The FINAL Short Sale Sensei webinar:

She was one of them.  She attended their office parties.

She’s sat down to dinner beside them.  Socialized and went

to sporting events with them.

 

If there’s a tactic or strategy the bank’s kept hidden from

investors, she knows it.  She’s the Short Sale Sensei. 

 

And she’s ready to spill the beans in a FINAL ENCORE this coming

Saturday, at 3 PM ET, NOON PST, on a fr-ee webinar, right here:

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/261917249

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Pending home sales drop 7.6%

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), its Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, dropped 7.6% to 90.4 from a reading of 97.8 in December, and is 12.3% higher than January 2009 when it was 80.5. NAR said the harsh winter hampered home sales. “January pending sales, though still higher than one year ago, remain much lower than expected given that a large number of potential buyers are eligible for the expanded home buyer tax credit,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Moreover, the abnormally severe and prolonged winter weather, which affected large regions of the US, hampered shopping activity in February.” Analysts say extension of tax credit is doing little to boost pending home sales, and given that the Federal Reserve will end purchase of mortgage backed securities this month, the housing recovery is going to take time. “When you take away all the support from the housing market, the underlying demand for housing is a lot weaker than we thought,” said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities. “We clearly pushed some demand forward, and there wasn’t that much demand to pull forward anyway. The housing recovery is going to be very, very slow.” On a regional basis, the pending home sales index dropped 8.7% to 71.3 in the Northeast, dropped 13.2% to 102.9 in the West, dropped 8.9% to 81.2 in the Midwest, and dropped 2.1% to 98.1 in the South.

Construction of multifamily units to rise in 2010

Green Street Advisors, a research firm, says real estate investment trusts are likely to begin construction of multifamily units worth about $1 billion in 2010; this is a significant increase over the $100 million of development starts in 2009. This comes as a bit of surprise since apartment vacancy is at a record high and the unemployment rate is not expected to come down any time soon. Analysts point out that construction cycles of multifamily units run into a few years and companies have to start today and be ready when the market turns around. Companies are betting that limited supply of new units coupled with an improving economy will help the sector in another couple of years. After 2012 until 2015, “apartment REITs may generate the best property net operating income growth that they’ve seen in a very long time, maybe ever,” said Haendel St. Juste, a REIT analyst with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. While the sector has significant risks, analysts believe things are getting better. “There’s an element of risk,” said Andrew McCulloch, an analyst with Green Street. “But if you were to go back a year, the outlook is much more clear today. Their confidence level in that eventual recovery is much higher.”

Analysts predict better times for commercial mortgage

The commercial mortgage market, which hit the lowest level last year since 2003, is likely to do better in 2010. Analytics firm Trepp, which monitors collateral performance on related commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), says the amount of commercial loans at least 30-days delinquent rose to 6.72% in February; this is the smallest increase in six months. In addition, the value of commercial real estate loans that collateralize CMBS increased to 76.7% of the original loan price through January 2010, up from 75.9% in December, according to Debtx, a research firm. Cushman & Wakefield, a commercial real estate (CRE) services provider, has predicted a 30% increase in global CRE investments in 2010. Analysts believe mortgages are the best option now for both high yields and safety, and will attract the attention of investors in 2010. David Hutchings, head of research at Cushman & Wakefield says investors aren’t shying away from the risk in CMBS. “While challenges clearly remain and a double-dip cannot be ruled out, a higher risk appetite among financiers and investors will continue to fire the market,” Hutchings said.

Factory orders rise 1.7%

According to the Commerce Department, new orders for goods manufactured in U.S. factories rose 1.7% in January; this is the ninth rise in the last 10 months. Orders for nondurable goods, including food, paper products, petroleum and coal products, rose by 0.9% in January while orders for durable goods such as computers, cars and machinery, rose by 2.6% in January. Manufacturers have been battered by the financial crisis and the recession hit demand for durable goods in the last couple of years. Orders for heavy machinery fell 9.2% in January after posting a 7.3% increase in December. “The culprit here is turbines,” said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase. “You smooth it out and things weren’t as robust as they seemed in December, but maybe not as dire as they seemed in January.” The decline in orders for heavy machinery has not dampened economists’ outlook. The declines in orders of heavy equipment “don’t change our opinion that capital spending is recovering,” said Aaron Smith, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “There’s always a tendency for the turbines and generator category to be weak in the first month of the quarter and stronger in the last month and that trend is particularly strong for the first part of the year.”

Payrolls fall less than expected in February

The jobless rate remained unchanged at 9.7% in February compared to January. The Labor Department said employers cut 36,000 jobs in February; analysts had expected at least 50,000 jobs to be cut in February. On a sectoral basis, professional and business services added 24,000 jobs in February; manufacturers added 1,000, construction companies eliminated 64,000 jobs, financial sector cut 10,000, and the government cut 18,000 jobs. The Labor Department said it is difficult to measure the impact of winter storms on employment. “Nor do we know how new hiring or separations were affected by the weather. For those reasons, we cannot say how much February’s payroll employment was affected by the severe weather,” said Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Keith Hall. Economists say the less than expected job cuts are an indicator that unemployment is easing. “We are almost there, the point where we are consistently adding jobs,” said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics. “The economy is making incremental but broad-based gains towards improvement.” Since the start of recession, 8.36 million jobs have been lost and unemployment remains the single biggest challenge for President Obama.

Now on to our real estate investing educational section…

Friday File – 15 Minute Resolution

Today’s 15 minute resolution is to learn the basics about using Twitter.  Think you don’t need to set up a Twitter account? Better think again. Despite the somewhat frivolous sounding name, Tweeting is becoming big business as heavy-weight real estate investors like Guy Kawasaki and even the Donald (as in Trump) sign-on.

A few of the most frequently cited reasons for joining Twitter include:

1. Sell products or services…sounds like a good reason for real estate investors to join right there!

2. Stay in immediate contact with a large number of people…ditto!

3. Monitor your reputation in real time. Find out what people are saying and take steps to enhance your professional reputation along the way.

4. SEARCH – Learn to use this powerful tool as soon as possible. Visit http://search.twitter.com/ 

5. ADVANCED TWITTER SEARCH – Serious tools for serious investors. Localize your search by area, specific people, places or other criteria…real time information.

6. Obtain data on your own Tweets with the use of social media analytics like www.objectivemarketer.com.

So, now that you know just a few of the reasons why Twitter is so important, it’s time to put your 15 minute resolution into effect. This week take time to create a Twitter account if you don’t have one (it’s simple…just visit www.twitter.com) or pimp out your Twitter page if you are still making do with a plain vanilla template.

1. Visit www.twitterbackgroundsgallery.com to find an easy to use Twitter template or create your own. Be sure to make your contact information highly visible but keep it simple, clean and concise.

2. Use the url field! Seriously folks, a blue background is bad enough but make the most of all the marketing potential by populating the existing fields.

3. Have it done for you. Not a designer by nature? No need to worry…it’s easy to have a complete Twitter account fully set-up and waiting for you.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

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