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short sales riches

Builder confidence down

by admin on April 16, 2012

BOA Florida plan draws 678 short sales

Bank of America’s (BOA) payoff to Florida homeowners who do a short sale instead of dragging out a foreclosure has averaged $12,000 per deal and helped close 678 contracts statewide since it debuted in October.  The Florida-only plan originally targeted 20,000 homeowners with incentives of between $5,000 and $20,000 to forgo the more than two-year foreclosure process and leave their home in “broom swept” condition for a new owner.  Bank of America spokesman Rick Simon said the Charlotte, N.C.-based company remains “enthused” about the pilot program, which generated 3,900 purchase offers and 11,000 verbal agreements from customers who said they were interested in participating.  “We’ve quietly done a little experimentation with a similar plan in one of the non-judicial states, but we are not to the point of announcing a major expansion,” said Simon, adding that monthly short sale volume has more than doubled this year.  “Of particular note is the response from ‘hand-raisers’ who heard about the program and asked to be included without us reaching out to them.” 

To participate, purchase offers had to be submitted by mid-December. Sales must close by Aug. 31.  Attorney Adam Seligman said his North Palm Beach firm of Cohen, Norris, Wolmer, Ray, Telepman and Cohen has closed about a dozen Bank of America short sales in which owners received a cash incentive.  “It’s just difficult dealing with them because they can’t seem to put into writing who qualifies,” Seligman said about Bank of America. “They have general guidelines, but nothing specific.”  Florida was a testing ground for Bank of America because of the state’s high foreclosure rates. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase have similar plans.  In March, Florida ranked fourth nationally in foreclosure activity, with one in every 336 homes receiving some type of foreclosure notice, according to a RealtyTrac report that was released Thursday.  The same report said it takes an average of 861 days to foreclose on a home in Florida.  Short sale incentive money is meant to dissuade struggling borrowers from going through a prolonged foreclosure, which can cost the bank more in the end then a cash payout up front. Typically, the bank also is willing to waive a deficiency judgment, which is the remaining balance on the home seller’s mortgage after the short sale is completed.

Retail up

Total retail sales increased 0.8%, the Commerce Department said on Monday, after rising 1% in February.  Last month’s gains, which surpassed economists’ expectations for only a 0.3% rise, could prompt analysts to raise their first-quarter growth forecasts from an annual pace of around 2.5% currently.  The economy grew at a 3% rate in the fourth quarter.  The rise in sales last month was broad-based, even though Americans paid 27 cents more per gallon of gasoline than they did the prior month.  Motor vehicle sales rose 0.9% after increasing 1.3% in February. Auto sales have accelerated in recent months, boosted by pent-up demand by households.  Excluding autos, retail sales climbed 0.8% last month after advancing 0.9% in February. 

Elsewhere, gasoline sales receipts increased 1.1% after rising 3.6% in February. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales advanced 0.7% in March, adding to the prior month’s 0.5% gain.  Details of the report showed some strength, suggesting consumer spending will continue to support growth.  Last month, clothing store receipts rose 0.9%, while sales at building materials and garden equipment suppliers jumped 3.0% — the largest gain since December.  So-called core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline and building materials, rose 0.5% after increasing by the same margin in February. Core sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of the government’s gross domestic product report. Sales at restaurants and bars edged up 0.3%, while receipts at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores rose 0.5%. Sales of electronics and appliances increased 1.0%, the largest gain since October, while receipts at furniture stores climbed 1.1%.

Spring recovery?

Five years after the US housing bust sent sales and prices plunging, the spring home-buying season is pointing to a long-awaited recovery.  Reduced prices, record-low mortgage rates, higher rents and an improving job market appear to be emboldening many would-be buyers.  Open houses are drawing crowds. A wave of foreclosures is leading investors to grab bargain-priced homes.  And many people seem to have concluded that prices won’t drop much further. In some areas, prices have begun to tick up.  Interviews with more than two dozen potential buyers, sellers, brokers, Realtors and economists suggest that confidence is up and that sales will move slowly but steadily higher.  The spring buying season got an early lift-off from an uncommonly warm January and February — a winter that was the best for sales of previously occupied homes in five years. Permits to build houses and apartments rose in February to their highest level since 2008.

Some analysts detected a slight uptick in prices for February and March. CoreLogic, a real estate data firm, says prices for homes not at risk of foreclosure — about two thirds of the market — rose 0.7% in February. It was the first increase in four years. Price gains occurred both in some hard-hit areas, such as Phoenix, and some still-thriving areas like New York and Washington.  In Miami, the average sales price has surged 14% in the past year, according to Trulia, a real estate data firm. In Phoenix, the average is up 13%, in Pittsburgh 9%.  Earnings reports Friday from two big banks suggested that more people are taking out mortgages. JPMorgan Chase issued 6% more mortgages from January through March than it did a year ago and got 33% more applications. Wells Fargo issued 54% more mortgages and received 84% more applications.  Still, few think the housing industry is nearing a return to full health. For that to happen, a robust job market would be needed. More hiring would give more people the money and job security to buy. That would help boost sales and prices.  Such areas as Atlanta, suburban Las Vegas and central California show few signs of recovery. And in some others — from Seattle to Cleveland — home prices have continued to slip. The average has dropped 9% in Seattle over the past 12 months and 7% in Cleveland.

US can handle higher gas prices and 30% taxes

Cheer up, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner says not to worry!  According to him, the US economy is in a better position to deal with high gasoline prices and taxes. He added that unseasonably warm winter had lowered overall energy costs for consumers.  “The economy is in a much better position to deal with those pressures … because natural gas prices are down, the overall cost of energy for consumers is down,” Geithner said on ABC’s “This Week” program.  A spike in gasoline prices caused economic growth to brake sharply in the first half of last year. Gasoline prices have risen 64 cents since the start of this year, leaving many Americans with a sense of deja vu, which was further reinforced by a slowdown in the pace of job creation last month.  However, Geithner said it was too early to tell whether the economy, which he described as getting stronger, would go through a repeat of last year. “We can’t tell yet. Obviously, we’ve got a lot of challenges ahead and some risks and uncertainty ahead. And some of those risks are, of course, Europe is still going through a difficult crisis,” he said.  He also dismissed suggestions that the country’s huge budget deficit put it at risk of being the next Greece, adding that the challenge was to bring the deficit down without compromising economic growth.  In a separate interview, Geithner said a proposal to impose at least 30% income tax on Americans making more than a million dollars a year will not hurt the economy by stifling investment and growth.

NAHB – builder confidence down

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes declined for the first time in seven months this April, sliding three notches to 25 on the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, released today. The decline brings the index back to where it was in January, which was the highest level since 2007.  “Although builders in many markets are noting increased interest among potential buyers, consumers are still very hesitant to go forward with a purchase, and our members are realigning their expectations somewhat until they see more actual signed sales contracts,” noted Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Gainesville, Fla.  “What we’re seeing is essentially a pause in what had been a fairly rapid build-up in builder confidence that started last September,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “This is partly because interest expressed by buyers in the past few months has yet to translate into expected sales activity, but is also reflective of the ongoing challenges that are slowing the housing recovery – particularly tight credit conditions for builders and buyers, competition from foreclosures and problems with obtaining accurate appraisals.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 25 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. Each of the index’s components registered declines in April. The component gauging current sales conditions and the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months each fell three points, to 26 and 32, respectively, while the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell four points to 18. (Note, the overall index and each of its components are seasonally adjusted.)  Regionally, the HMI results were somewhat mixed in April, with the Northeast posting a four-point gain to 29 (its highest level since May of 2010), the West posting no change at 32, the South posting a three-point decline to 24 and the Midwest posting an eight-point decline to 23.

Fitch – builder confidence should be up

Fitch Ratings believes single-family housing starts will increase 10% in 2012, while new home sales will rise 8%, according to the firm’s latest US homebuilding update.  Still, the ratings giant sees an erratic homebuilding market after witnessing disappointing results for 2011.  “Single-family housing finished well below expectations at the beginning of the year,” Fitch said in its update. “Single-family starts fell 8.5%, while new home sales declined 5.9%. Existing home sales, meanwhile, improved 1.7%.”  Despite challenges in the housing market and the expectation that home prices will remain soft, Fitch expects builders to fare better in 2012 with the market peppered with less competitive rent options and new home inventories at historic lows.  Fitch’s outlook for homebuilders runs from stable to negative, with most builders rated as stable.   The sector continues to face headwinds from a an anemic job market and what Fitch calls “negative buying psychology,” where people are afraid to buy a home, fearing home prices are still vulnerable to decline.  Going forward, Fitch believes public homebuilding firms will add selectively to their developed lot holdings while committing resources to partially or undeveloped land.  “The still irregular flow of appropriately priced land from banks and other sources tends to support this strategy,” Fitch said. “However, if the operating environment becomes more challenged. Fitch expects builders will be more cautious as to land purchase and will preserve cash.”

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Higher prices coming?

by admin on April 12, 2012

WSJ – foreclosures fall, but…

First-quarter foreclosures declined 16% from a year earlier, falling to their lowest quarterly total since 2007, according to the latest report from market researcher RealtyTrac.  The number of foreclosure filings in the first quarter fell 2% sequentially. Default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions were reported on 572,928 US properties in the latest quarter, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2007, when 527,740 properties with foreclosure filings were reported. One in every 230 US housing units had a foreclosure filing during the quarter.  In March, there were 198,853 US properties in varying stages of foreclosure, down 17% from a year earlier and 4% from the prior month.  RealtyTrac reported the decline in foreclosure activity is primarily due to decreasing activity in states that use the nonjudicial foreclosure process. Foreclosure filings in these 24 states and the District of Columbia, which represented more than half of the nation’s total during the quarter, fell 28% on the year. States that primarily use the judicial foreclosure process saw a 10% year-over-year increase in foreclosure activity in the first quarter.

RealtyTrac Chief Executive Brandon Moore warned that the low foreclosure numbers in the latest period do not indicate that the massive amount of distressed properties built up over the past few years has evaporated.  “There are hairline cracks in the dam, evident in the sizable foreclosure activity increases in judicial foreclosure states over the past several months, along with an increase in foreclosure starts in many judicial and non-judicial states in March,” Moore said in a statement. “The dam may not burst in the next 30 to 45 days, but it will eventually burst, and everyone downstream should be prepared for that to happen–both in terms of new foreclosure activity and new short sale activity.”  Completing the foreclosure process took an average of 370 days in the first quarter, up from 348 days in the prior quarter. However, RealtyTrac noted the average foreclosure timeline fell in bellwether states like California, Colorado, Utah, Massachusetts and Nevada.

Nevada’s foreclosure activity fell 62% on the year and 26% from the prior quarter, but the state again posted the nation’s highest foreclosure rate. In the latest period, one in every 95 Nevada housing units received a foreclosure filing.  California had the second highest rate, though the state’s default activity also decreased on a quarterly and annual basis. One in every 103 California housing units had a foreclosure filing in the first quarter. The state also had the highest number of properties with foreclosure filings.  Arizona had the third highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 106 housing units receiving a foreclosure filing.

Jobless claims up

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, defying economists’ expectations for a drop to 355,000.  The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, rose 4,250 to 368,500.  Some economists blamed the Easter holidays for the spike in claims and expected applications to trend lower in coming weeks.  “It’s very difficult to know the extent to which that’s driven by seasonal effects from Easter or not,” said Eric Green, chief economist at TD Securities in New York.  The claims data comes in the wake of Friday’s disappointing employment report for March, which showed the economy created 120,000 new jobs, the smallest amount since October.  Despite the rise in claims last week, both first-time applications for unemployment aid and the four-week average held below the 400,000 mark, implying steady job gains.

Olick – higher prices coming?

“A response to a recent RealtyCheck blog on home prices included the following:  ‘Someone needs to explain to Ms. Olick what these ‘price declines’ really represent because they most assuredly do not measure how much home values have changed. They simply measure the statistical midpoint for all home sales. So in an economy where people are buying smaller homes that number moves down. That doesn’t mean that every house lost that % value.’  Thanks, but no explanation necessary, as I believe I covered that a while back. But I would like to elaborate a bit on this theme, as we’re starting to see some changes mortgage applications; specifically the average loan amount is rising, which might suggest a turnaround in pricing, due to a change in the type of homes being bought.  The average size of a mortgage purchase application increased 9% from December to the end of March, from $214,500 to $233,300 in March, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. ‘That points to underlying improvement in borrowers’ appetite for mortgage credit,’ notes Paul Diggle of Capital Economics. 

Just yesterday analysts at Goldman Sachs said both Toll Brothers and Pulte Homes should benefit from more positive sentiment among high end buyers. Their survey showed 63% of respondents expect home prices to be either stable or rise, but 83% of respondents with an annual income above $120,000 expect home prices to be either stable or rise. That’s up from 75% six months ago.  If in fact the higher end buyers start getting back into the market, or at least the move-up buyers, that will shift the volume to a higher price range and consequently the median price, which gets all that national attention. 72% of home sales in February were of homes priced less than $250,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.  Of course, as I always say, all real estate is local, as are all home prices, and let us not forget that.”

Producer prices flat

US producer prices were unchanged last month after advancing 0.4% in February.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices at farms, factories and refineries to rise 0.3%.  Wholesale prices excluding volatile food and energy costs rose 0.3% after February’s 0.2% gain.  That was a touch above economists’ expectations for a 0.2% advance and marked the fifth successive month of increases in core PPI.  Over one-third of the rise in core PPI was attributed to prices for light motor trucks. Higher costs for passenger cars, soaps and detergents also contributed to the advance in core PPI.  However, manufacturers have limited scope to pass on these increased costs to consumers given the still considerable slack in the economy.  Overall producer prices were held back by a 2.0% fall in gasoline, the largest decline since October, after a 4.3% jump in February. That offset a 0.2% rise in food prices, which halted three straight months of declines.  However, gasoline prices rose 7.5%, when seasonal factors are excluded.  In the 12 months to March, wholesale prices increased 2.8%, the smallest increase since June 2010, after advancing 3.3% in February.  Outside food and energy, producer prices were pushed up by light motor trucks prices, which rebounded 0.7% after falling 0.4% in February. Passenger car prices rose 0.8% after edging up 0.1% the prior month.  The increases likely reflected strong demand for automobiles.  In the 12 months to March, core producer prices increased 2.9% after rising 3.0% the previous month.

Loan demand improves

Loan demand in the banking industry, as well as residential and commercial real estate activity, improved in most Federal Reserve districts across the US, according to the latest Beige Book from the Fed.  The survey, which develops a consensus on economic activity by interviewing industry contacts in every Federal Reserve district, reported that the US economy continued to grow at a modest pace from mid-February to late March.  Residential real estate activity also improved in most districts, with Cleveland and San Francisco remaining outliers with lackluster real estate activity.  Nationwide construction of multifamily housing units grew in most Fed districts, with most of the construction centered around apartments and senior housing.  Meanwhile, home prices continued to fall in key areas like Boston, New York and Minneapolis. Prices remained flat in San Francisco.  Mild winter weather during the first part of the year delivered a slight boost in real estate activity in the areas of Boston, Philadelphia and Kansas City. 

Conditions in the financial services and banking industry remained “stable” as demand for lending increased modestly. While lending remained unchanged in St. Louis, it expanded in New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco.  “In general, the demand for commercial and industrial loans remained steady, while several districts reported an increase in commercial real estate lending activity,” the Beige Book said.  “The Philadelphia and Cleveland districts reported increased lending for multifamily housing and health care, and contacts in Richmond cited increased lending to small business to finance inventory and capital expenditures.”  Overall, residential real estate showed signs of modest improvement and multifamily housing construction continued to grow. On the banking side, credit quality increased and financial firms noted improvement in loan demand.

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Debate over principal forgiveness

by admin on April 11, 2012

BOA streamlining short sales process

Bank of America (BOA) says it’s making changes to its short-sale procedures that will shorten decision times on short sale offers to 20 days, down from 45 days or longer.  The new task flow in BOA’s short-sale management platform, Equator, will enable short-sale specialists to conduct tasks like document collection, valuations and underwriting simultaneously. When buyers walk, agents will have five days instead of 14 days to submit a backup offer.  Bank of America is requiring a new third-party authorization form for short sales initiated beginning April 14.  When the changes to Equator take effect Saturday, five documents will be required to process short sales initiated with an offer:

-  A purchase contract including buyer’s acknowledgment and disclosure.

-  HUD-1.

-  IRS Form 4506-T.

-  Bank of America short-sale addendum.

-  Bank of America third-party authorization form.

The Equator platform will be offline the night of Friday, April 13, and into early Saturday, April 14, to implement changes. Offer documents and supporting documents for all short sales submitted with an offer must be uploaded before Friday, April 13, or files may be declined.

Import prices up

Overall import prices rose 1.3% in March, the Labor Department said today. That was the biggest gain since April 2011.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected import prices to rise 0.8% last month. February’s data was revised to show a 0.1% decline instead of the previously reported 0.4% increase.  Stripping out petroleum, import prices increased 0.3% after falling 0.1% in February.  Higher costs for energy have fueled inflation in recent months but a still-weak jobs market has made it harder for businesses to raise other prices.  Data on Thursday is expected to show tame price pressures at a wholesale level, with producer prices seen rising 0.2% in March when stripping out food and energy.  But today’s report underscores the size of the price shock that is stinging Americans when they refuel their cars.  Last month, imported petroleum prices increased 4.3%, the biggest gain since April 2011.  Elsewhere, imported capital goods prices edged 0.2% higher after being flat in February. Imported motor vehicle prices climbed 0.3% after being unchanged in February.  The Labor Department report also showed export prices rose 0.8% last month, above analysts’ expectations for a 0.4% gain. Export prices increased 0.4% in February.

MBA – mortgage applications down

Mortgage applications decreased 2.4% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 6, 2012.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2.1% compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index decreased 3.1% from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.5% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1% compared with the previous week and was 5.5% higher than the same week one year ago.  There was no adjustment made for Good Friday.  The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 2.08%.  The four week moving average is up 2.19% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 3.45% for the Refinance Index.  The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased for the eighth consecutive week to 70.5% of total applications from 71.2% the previous week.  This is the lowest refinance share since July 29, 2011.  The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 5.5% of total applications from the previous week.

In March 2012, the share of applications for investment properties increased to 8.3% from 7.4% in February 2012.  However, the increase in investor share was driven by refinance applications for investment properties (which increased to 9.2% in March 2012 from 7.7% in February 2012), as the share of purchase applications for investment homes decreased over the month, from 6.1% in February 2012 to 5.7% in March 2012.  The investor share of purchase applications also decreased on a year over year basis, falling from 5.8% in March 2011 to its current level of 5.7% in March 2012.  While MBA tracks applications for second homes and investment properties separately, giving them the ability to distinguish between the two, the combined share of investment and second home applications for home purchase had the same directional components for the month of March 2012 – up on the whole and up for refinance applications last month, but down for home purchase activity.

Credit eases

Credit card lenders gave out 1.1 million new cards to borrowers with damaged credit in December, up 12.3% from the same month a year earlier, according to Equifax’s credit trends report released in March. These borrowers accounted for 23% of new auto loans in the fourth quarter of 2011, up from 17% in the same period of 2009, Experian, a credit scoring firm, said.  The banks are looking to make up the billions in fee income wiped out by regulations enacted after the financial crisis by focusing on two parts of their business — the high and the low ends — industry consultants say. Subprime borrowers typically pay high interest rates, up to 29%, and often rack up fees for late payments.  Some former banking regulators said they worried that this kind of lending, even in its early stages, signaled a potentially dangerous return to the same risky lending that helped fuel the credit crisis.  The lenders argue that they have learned their lesson and are distinguishing between chronic deadbeats and what some in the industry call “fallen angels,” those who had good payment histories before falling behind as the economy foundered.  Regulators with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which oversees the nation’s largest banks, said that as long as lenders adhered to strict underwriting standards and monitored risk, there was nothing inherently dangerous about extending credit to a wider swath of people.

Olick – debate over principal forgiveness

“The man at the center of the controversy over writing down mortgage principal on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans isn’t wavering. He may be reconsidering previous loss formulas, factoring in new government subsidies for principal write-down, but his opinion seems largely unchanged.  After beginning a speech this morning about all the so-called ‘Enterprises’ (Fannie and Freddie) have done to help millions of borrowers behind on their mortgage payments, and reminding listeners of his agency’s mandate to, ‘preserve and conserve the assets of the Enterprises,’ FHFA Acting Director Ed DeMarco took a left turn.  ‘There is another human element in this story that does not seem to receive much attention,’ DeMarco continued. ‘Clearly, many households got over-extended financially. Some accumulated debts they couldn’t afford when hours or wages were cut or jobs were lost. Others withdrew equity from their homes as house prices soared. Others bought houses at the peak of the market, often with little money down, perhaps in the belief house prices would continue to climb. Yet there are other Americans who did not do this thing.’ 

That last part really clinches what may eventually be his decision not to allow principal forgiveness, or to do it in an extremely narrow way. Yes, there are all kinds of formulas, and ‘net present value’ analyses that have been and continue to be run. There will be Enterprise gains offset by taxpayer losses, and there will be estimates of operational costs to implement a wide-ranging and necessarily transparent program. But in the end, less than one million borrowers would be helped, and for DeMarco, as for many others, it will come down to fairness and cheating.  ‘One factor that needs to be considered is the borrower incentive effects. That means, will some percentage of borrowers who are current on their loans, be encouraged to either claim a hardship or actually go delinquent to capture the benefits of principal forgiveness?’ asks DeMarco.  ‘This is a particular concern for the Enterprises because unlike other mortgage market participants that can pick and choose where principal forgiveness makes sense, the Enterprises must develop the program to be implemented by more than one thousand seller/servicers. In addition, the Enterprises will have to publicly announce this program and borrower awareness of the possibility of receiving a principal reduction modification will be heightened among Enterprise borrowers,’ he explains.

In other words, this opens the flood gates to cheating. The fact is that there are 11 million borrowers who currently owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth and yet the vast majority of them are still making monthly payments. Those who haven’t been paying have been delinquent, in some cases, for many years. The concern is that borrowers who are current on their loans might think it’s unfair that those who are not current are being rewarded and they are not. It would take a relatively small group of them strategically defaulting to offset the gains of any principal reduction program and turn it into a massive debacle.  ‘The far larger group of underwater borrowers who today have remained faithful to paying their mortgage obligations are the much greater contingent risk to housing markets and to taxpayers. Encouraging their continued success could have a greater impact on the ultimate recovery of housing markets and cost to the taxpayers than the debate over which modification approach offered to troubled borrowers is preferable,’ concludes DeMarco.  He is expected to announce a decision on principal reduction this month, but the analysts are already out:  ‘We see this as a strong political attack against principal reduction,’ says Jaret Seiberg of Guggenheim partners.  The Obama administration is clearly pushing for it, with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner recently telling a Senate panel that there is a, ‘very strong economic case’ for principal write-down. He suggested DeMarco, ‘take another look at the math,’ which DeMarco is obviously doing. The trouble is, when it comes to today’s housing market and today’s borrowers, paying your mortgage, whatever it’s worth, is not always a simple equation.”

Oil to sink below $100?

Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index, said the charts suggest US futures may drop to $98 a barrel, and if that level is broken, momentum could accelerate taking the crude to as low as $87.  Oil prices contained below $100 would help alleviate the strain on the US consumer, offering some relief to the broader economy. A gallon of gasoline cost $3.94 at the pump last week, two cents higher than the previous week and 5.9% more expensive than a year earlier, MasterCard said in its weekly Spending Pulse report on Tuesday.  The catalyst for the move lower in oil prices may come later Wednesday when the US Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration releases weekly stockpiles data at 10:30 am ET.  The report is expected to show a 1.8 million barrels build in commercial crude oil inventories for the week ending April 6, driven by higher US imports of Saudi crude, according to analysts polled by Platts.

CoreLogic – April MarketPulse Report

CoreLogic today released its April CoreLogic MarketPulse report. The monthly economic publication provides insight into the current and future health of the US economic climate with particular focus on housing and mortgage metrics. Chief Economist Mark Fleming and Senior Economist Sam Khater authored the articles and commentary.  The April MarketPulse report:

-  Indicates “now is a good time to buy,” with housing affordability at its highest level ever (as of February 2012), and shows many of the key housing metrics are holding steady through the typically slow winter season.

-  Reports the single-family rental market is strong and vibrant with high and stable rents, low months’ supply and a healthy pace of signed rental leases. The report reveals what markets offer the best return for single-family rental investors. “The potential size of the rental market for REOs this year (and annually over the next few years) is over $100 billion dollars,” said Khater in the report.

-  Shows capitalization rates for single-family rental properties in 26 geographically diverse markets. Capitalization rates are the most common metric for determining the profitability of an investment property.

-  Provides a chart of the rent-to-mortgage ratio for Miami, Fla. The chart indicates the point in time when it became cheaper to buy than to rent, providing insight to investors buying and holding rental properties, as well as to new first-time home buyers.

For a complete copy of the April CoreLogic MarketPulse report, including a complete set of data and charts, visit http://www.corelogic.com/downloadable-docs/MarketPulse_2012-April.pdf.

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FHA delays collections rule

by admin on April 9, 2012

What the foreclosure settlement does

The $26 billion foreclosure settlement has finally been given the green light, making it possible for roughly two million of the nation’s hardest hit borrowers to see a significant reduction in their mortgage payments.  Agreed to between the nation’s five largest banks and attorneys general from 49 states and the District of Columbia, the deal settles charges of foreclosure processing abuses dating back to 2008.  The settlement, the details of which were first announced in early February, has been in the works for more than a year. Here’s what the banks agreed to and what borrowers can expect in the days ahead.

The banks and servicers have committed at least $17 billion to reduce principal for borrowers who 1) owe far more than their homes are worth 2) are behind on payments.  The amount of principal reduction will average about $20,000 per borrower in the cases of four of the banks. The Bank of America reductions will be even steeper, averaging $100,000 or more, according to spokesman Rick Simon.  Another $3.7 billion will go toward refinancing mortgages for borrowers who are current on their payments. This will enable them to take advantage of the historically low interest rates that are currently available.  The banks will pay $5 billion to the states and the federal government, the only hard money involved in the deal. Out of that fund will come payments of $1,500 to $2,000 to homeowners who lost their homes to foreclosure.

Other funds will be paid to legal aid and homeowner advocacy organizations to help individuals facing foreclosure or experiencing servicer abuses.  Another $1 billion will be paid directly by Bank of America to the Federal Housing Administration to settle charges that its subsidiary, Countrywide Financial, defrauded the housing agency.  In addition, the banks agreed to eliminate robo-signing altogether and to use proper and legal procedures when putting homeowners through the foreclosure process. They also agreed to end servicer abuses, like harassing delinquent borrowers for payments, and to include principal reductions more often in their mortgage modifications programs.

Iran sanctions to cost 25 cents a gallon

Twenty-five cents a gallon — that’s about how much some international energy experts say the tough US sanctions on Iran’s oil industry are costing Americans at the pump.  As US consumers cope with gas prices that are approaching an average of $4 a gallon, some international trade experts say the cost of the sanctions the US imposes — as in the case of the Iran measures — is something political leaders should discuss more openly. Instead, they say, most politicians act as if sanctions affect only the country targeted — something these experts say isn’t true.  Energy experts say it’s difficult to pinpoint precisely how much sanctions on Iran are costing consumers as they filter down to the gas pump. But Lucian Pugliaresi, president of the Energy Policy Research Foundation, a Washington nonprofit organization that studies energy economics, says it’s possible to make an estimate.  The sanctions the US and other countries have slapped on Iran’s energy sector and on its central bank (aimed at curtailing its oil exports) are costing Iran about 300,000 barrels a day in exports, Mr. Pugliaresi estimates. When added to other factors affecting the international oil market, that decrease in exports may have added about $10 to the current price of a barrel for crude, he says.  And that $10 increase translates roughly to about a 25-cent increase in the cost of a gallon of gas in the US, Pugliaresi says.

FHA delays collections rule

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) rescinded and will delay a rule that as of April 1 prohibited borrowers with more than $1,000 in disputed collections accounts from getting a federally backed mortgage, according to a notice sent late Friday.  FHA postponed the rule until July, and will take public comment from lenders, builders and others in the industry until then to clarify guidance.  “There is clearly a bigger ripple effect here than the Department of Housing and Urban Development might have anticipated going into this revision,” said Lisa Jackson, senior vice president of research and business development with John Burns Real Estate Consulting. “Any measure that impacts even 10% of sales is meaningful and our analysis shows it would be far greater in some markets.”  The FHA attempted to ease the original proposal, allowing borrowers to provide written documentation on “life event” disputed accounts with them, such as bills stemming from illness, divorce or unemployment in order to obtain an exemption.  Borrowers could previously show the lender they arranged a payment plan to settle other accounts too in order to qualify, including credit card and utility bills.  According to the alert sent Friday, the FHA ensured lenders they would not be in violation of the new rule for loans written between April 1 and April 8.  Until July, the old guidance will be put back into place.

Analysts from JPMorgan Chase said the rule would affect many first-time homebuyers the most, those most likely to carry such debt. The analysts estimated the rule could cut FHA demand by up to 20%, and the damage would affect homebuilders differently depending upon how much of their business hinged on these borrowers.  Many questioned the timing and the murkiness of the rule. The FHA previously said it adopted the rule in order to reduce default risk for newer books of business. Mortgages written during the housing bubble continue to haunt the agency. The FHA emergency Mutual Mortgage Insurance fund dropped to nearly 0.2% last year was in danger of needing a bailout from the Treasury Department if insurance premiums were not hiked and some lucrative settlements were not struck.  “There are two positives to this latest decision: HUD is willing to analyze the real implications of the housing market before they put a new measure in place, plus they are engaging feedback on the issue,” Jackson said.

Stock market on a cliff?

For the stock market, it was a triumphant first quarter. But for earnings growth, the past three months were just ho-hum.  Analysts are expecting earnings for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index to decline 0.1% compared to a year ago, according to FactSet. It’s a tiny number but a significant turning point. Earnings growth was on a winning streak for the previous nine quarters. Year-over-year earnings growth has been at least 10% for all but the most recent period, when it was 6%.  The reasons for the expected slowdown range from global (a weak Europe hurts everybody) to mathematical (it’s hard to top double-digit quarters). Whatever the cause, the stagnation in earnings growth is a stark reminder that the economy’s problems are far from solved. Just three months ago, analysts were predicting 3% earnings growth for the first quarter.  We’ll soon see if the expectations are on target. Earnings season gets under way Tuesday when the aluminum producer Alcoa becomes the first major US company to release its first-quarter results.  Should this batch of earnings contain a lot of bad surprises, it could upend a stock market rally that pushed the S&P 500 index up 12% in the first three months of the year.

63% of HAMP-eligible second liens modified

Mortgage servicers started modifications on 63% of eligible second liens under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), according to Treasury Department data released Friday.  Through February, servicers participating in 2MP started 71,133 second-lien workouts of the 113,774 eligible loans. More than 15,600 of them have been fully extinguished. More than one-third of the second-lien mods occurred in California, according to the Treasury.  Of the $29.9 billion allocated for HAMP, roughly $2.7 billion is set aside for modifying second liens, according to the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program.  In January, the Treasury boosted incentives to investors who allow the workouts, doubling the pay from earlier in the program.  In order for a loan to be eligible for the second-lien program under HAMP, the servicer must receive notification of a match with a permanent first lien modification, according to program guidelines. The Treasury said roughly 315,000 HAMP first-lien mods have been matched to a second, but many are deemed ineligible because of a redefault on the first lien, an extinguishment before it entered HAMP.  In some cases, the Treasury said some homeowners with an eligible second decline to participate in 2MP.  Bank of America has nearly 40,000 eligible second-liens, the most of any servicer, and has started modifications on 62% of them.  Wells Fargo started workouts on 71% of its 16,300 eligible seconds, the highest percentage of any servicer.  Overall, servicers start modifications on between 2,000 and 5,000 second-liens under 2MP. The median monthly payment reduction was $161 for borrowers.  Servicers started 1.8 million trial modifications and completed 974,000 permanent workouts under the first-lien program through February.

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What’s the future of the housing crisis?

by admin on April 6, 2012

Half a decade into the deepest US housing crisis since the 1930s, many Americans are hoping the crisis is finally nearing its end.  House sales are picking up across most of the country, the plunge in prices is slowing and attempts by lenders to claim back properties from struggling borrowers dropped by more than a third in 2011, hitting a four-year low.  But a painful part two of the slump looks set to unfold: Many more US homeowners face the prospect of losing their homes this year as banks pick up the pace of foreclosures.  “We are right back where we were two years ago. I would put money on 2012 being a bigger year for foreclosures than 2010,” said Mark Seifert, executive director of Empowering & Strengthening Ohio’s People (ESOP), a counseling group with 10 offices in Ohio.  “Last year was an anomaly, and not in a good way,” he said.  In 2011, the “robo-signing” scandal, in which foreclosure documents were signed without properly reviewing individual cases, prompted banks to hold back on new foreclosures pending a settlement.  Five major banks eventually struck that settlement with 49 US states in February. Signs are growing the pace of foreclosures is picking up again, something housing experts predict will again weigh on home prices before any sustained recovery can occur.

 Mortgage servicing provider Lender Processing Services reported in early March that US foreclosure starts jumped 28% in January.  More conclusive national data is not yet available. But watchdog group, 4closurefraud.org which helped uncover the “robo-signing” scandal, says it has turned up evidence of a large rise in new foreclosures between March 1 and 24 by three big banks in Palm Beach County in Florida, one of the states hit hardest by the housing crash.  Although foreclosure starts were 50% or more lower than for the same period in 2010, those begun by Deutsche Bank were up 47% from 2011. Those of Wells Fargo’s rose 68% and Bank of America’s, including BAC Home Loans Servicing, jumped nearly seven-fold — 251 starts versus 37 in the same period in 2011. Bank of America said it does not comment on data provided by other sources. Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank did not comment. 

Housing experts say localized warning signs of a new wave of foreclosure are likely to be replicated across much of the United States.  Online foreclosure marketplace RealtyTrac estimated that while foreclosures dropped slightly nationwide in February from January and from February 2011, they rose in 21 states and jumped sharply in cities like Tampa (64%), Chicago (43%) and Miami (53%).  RealtyTrac CEO Brandon Moore said the “numbers point to a gradually rising foreclosure tide as some of the barriers that have been holding back foreclosures are removed.”

One big difference to the early years of the housing crisis, which was dominated by Americans saddled with the most toxic subprime products — with high interest rates where banks asked for no money down or no proof of income — is that today it’s mostly Americans with ordinary mortgages whose ability to meet payment have been hit by the hard economic times.  “The subprime stuff is long gone,” said Michael Redman, founder of 4closurefraud.org. “Now the folks being affected are hardworking, everyday Americans struggling because of the economy.”

Crackdown on tax havens

As regulators clamp down on money flows around the globe, governments, even those that prided themselves on the strength of their secrecy laws, like Switzerland, are facing pressure to share banking information and change their policies.  Now, private banks and wealth managers are scrambling to convert so-called black money — assets that have not been disclosed — into accounts that are above board.  The shift may provide opportunities for the industry. As more funds become legitimate, analysts say financial institutions will be able to sell extra wealth management products to affluent people and enter markets that had previously been off limits.  “There’s much less black money now than three years ago,” said Jean Schaffner, head of the Luxembourg tax practice at the law firm Allen & Overy. “It’s in the banks’ interests for clients to come forward with their money.”  For decades, Western governments tolerated offshore tax havens, places where the wealthy could park millions away from the gaze of their domestic authorities. Switzerland, in particular, developed a reputation as a place where the wealthy could rely on secrecy laws.  But the tide began to turn in 2008, particularly after the financial crisis prompted many governments to act in concert.  As Switzerland and other locales tightened their financial controls, many people initially flocked to other tax havens like Singapore and Hong Kong, which still offer some of the world’s most secret accounts. But these places, too, are facing new pressures.

NAHB – 101 improving housing markets

The list of housing markets showing measurable improvement expanded slightly to include 101 metropolitan areas in April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI), released today. Thirty-five states (including the District of Columbia) are now represented by at least one market on the list. The index identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement from their respective troughs in housing permits, employment and house prices for at least six consecutive months. The 101 markets on the April IMI represent a net gain of two from March, with 13 metros being added and 11 markets slipping from the list while 88 markets retained their places on it. Among the new entrants, areas as diverse as Rome, Ga.; Coeur d’Alene, Idaho; Greenville, N.C.; Brownsville, Texas; St. George, Utah; and Huntington, W.Va., are now represented on the IMI.  The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top improving Metropolitan Statistical Areas.

The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the US Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate a list of improving markets. A metropolitan area must see improvement in all three areas for at least six months following their respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list.  A complete list of all 101 metropolitan areas currently on the IMI, and separate breakouts of metros newly added to or dropped from the list in April, is available at: www.nahb.org/imi.

Job improvement slows

US payrolls rose far less than expected in March, keeping the door open for further monetary policy support from the Federal Reserve, even as the unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 8.2%.  Employers added 120,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, the smallest increase since October.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected nonfarm employment to increase 203,000 and the unemployment rate to hold at 8.3%.  The slowdown in employment growth last month likely reflected the fading boost from unseasonably warm winter weather. It supported the caution on the labor market from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week.  Bernanke expressed doubts the recent job gains could be sustained, and March’s weak report was in line with expectations that economic growth slowed to an annual pace of 2% in the first quarter from the 3% rate in the October-December period. 

The weakness in hiring last month was concentrated in the vast private services sector, which added only 90,000 after increasing payrolls by 204,000 in February. Retail employment fell dropped 33,800 after falling 28,600 the prior month.  Construction hiring fell 7,000, the second straight monthly decline. Temporary help fell 7,500 after rising 54,900 in February.  However, manufacturing enjoyed another month of strong job gains, with factories adding 37,000 new positions, helped by carmakers trying to meet pent-up demand for motor vehicles. Factory jobs increased by 31,000 in February.  Government employment edged down 1,000 after rising 7,000 in February. Despite the weak employment gains last month, average hourly earnings rose 5 cents.  The workweek dipped to 34.5 hours from 34.6 hours in February.

WSJ – Fed in favor of the banks’ foreclosure-rental approach

Last month, Bank of America Corp. announced a plan to allow homeowners at risk of foreclosure to hand over deeds to their houses and sign leases that will let them rent the houses back from the bank at a market rate.  In addition, Fannie Mae is selling 2,500 homes in eight metropolitan areas around the country. The government-controlled mortgage firm is selling the $320 million portfolio to investors, who would be required to turn them into rental properties.  The Federal Reserve set out new polices for banks that decide to rent out foreclosed homes, endorsing a strategy for managing the huge number of distressed properties that have piled up during the housing bust. The central bank said in a six-page policy statement Thursday that the Fed’s regulations permit the rental of foreclosed properties to tenants “in light of the extraordinary market conditions that currently prevail.” The policy clarified that banks that would otherwise be required to sell off the properties more quickly can turn to rental as a strategy. 

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and other central bank officials have spoken publicly about the need to encourage banks to rent out foreclosures. “With home prices falling and rents rising, it could make sense in some markets to turn some of the foreclosed homes into rental properties,” Mr. Bernanke said in a February speech.  The central bank said that banks holding large numbers of foreclosures should establish detailed policies for renting foreclosures, including a process to determine whether the properties are safe to occupy and meet local building code requirements.  The Fed said banks should set up criteria by which properties are picked to be rental properties. The banks should establish plans that “describe the general conditions under which the organization believes a rental approach is likely to be successful,” the central bank said.

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