Posts tagged as:

stress test

Mortgage Rates Rise As Stress Test Comes Under Scrutiny

by Chris McLaughlin on May 8, 2009

Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, May 8, 2009
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html

——–
No money, no credit but an honest desire to succeed?
Thatís all it takes to get into the lucrative business of
finding and reselling short sale properties.  We’ve had
people go from zero to six figures in less than six months!
See if there’re any spots left for this webinar
Sunday at 8:00 PM ET, 5:00 PM PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/497748842
———
Rise in mortgage rates

Freddie Mac has announced that the mortgage rate (30-year
fixed rate) for the week ending May 7 rose to 4.84%, from
4.78% for the earlier week. Incidentally, 4.78% was an
all-time low. The rise in rate is significant more from a
directional perspective than from the point of view of the
magnitude. Does the rise indicate that the underlying
sentiment has turned bullish? Frank Nothaft, the chief
economist of Freddie Mac said, “Mortgage rates rose slightly
this week amid positive economic news that the economy may
be approaching the bottom of the recession.” The initiative
of Federal Reserve, since November 2008, to prop up the
real estate market by buying $1.25 trillion worth mortgage
backed securities seems to be working. The slump in the
real estate market is closely linked to credit crisis and
economic downturn. Is the underlying strength in the
market for real, and will it lead to economic recovery? We
will know in the months to come.

Nouriel Roubini questions the robustness of stress tests
Nouriel Roubini, who runs RGE monitor, an economic consultancy
has questioned the quality of stress tests conducted to
measure the capital requirement of banks. Roubini, known
for his dire predictions, said, ìif you assume the results
have been leaked are true, you’re going to find out that
a large number of financial institutions have significant
capital needs.” He warned that the stress tests were not
robust enough, and the actual data on the state of the
economy could be worse than what is portrayed by the
worst-case scenario of the stress tests. Roubini also
suggested that it would make sense to convert creditors
into equity holders in banks, for the banks to remain in
private hands. Roubini criticized that the infusion of
funds into banks by the government is leading to ìcreeping
nationalization of the banking sector.

Chairman-Elect of the Mortgage Bankers Association testifies
on frauds relating to foreclosure rescue Robert E. Story,
Chairman-Elect of the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA),
testified before the House Financial Services Subcommittee
on Housing and Community Opportunity which held a hearing
on Legislative Solutions for Preventing Loan Modification
and Foreclosure Rescue Fraud.  Story expressed concern over
homeowners getting scammed by fraudsters who claim to help
borrowers in distress. In addition to creating a fear
psychosis in the minds of distressed borrowers, the scammers
mislead borrowers that they can get out of their distress
situation if they fully cooperate with them. Story said,
Scammers convince homeowners that they can save their homes
from foreclosure through deed transfers and promises to
lease or sell back the property which never happens. In
extreme instances, scammers sell the home or secure a
second loan without the homeowners knowledge, stripping
the propertys equity for personal gain.  He said, MBA
is particularly pleased that today, the House is taking
up S. 386, the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act.  This
bill includes $245 million for law enforcement to crack
down on financial fraud, including foreclosure rescue fraud.

Fannie Mae loses money

Fannie Mae reported a first-quarter loss of $23.2 billion
today, and added that it submitted a request for $19 billion
from the Treasury Department, to cover its net worth deficit
of $18.9 billion.  It also said Treasury has doubled its
support level to the company to $200 billion.  In its quarterly
release, Fannie Mae said its “entire guaranty book of
business, including loans with lower risk characteristics,”
was experiencing “increases in delinquency and default rates
as a result of the sharp rise in unemployment, the continued
decline in home prices, the prolonged downturn in the economy,
and the resulting increase in mark-to-market loan-to-value
ratios.”  Naturally, Fannie Mae said that it fully expects
to ask for more financial support from the federal government.
“Due to current trends in the housing and financial markets,
we expect to have a net worth deficit in future periods, and
therefore will be required to obtain additional funding
from the Treasury.”

Big U.S. banks to repay TARP funds soon

The recently released stress results suggests 9 out of 19
biggest banks have enough capital to withstand economic
shocks. Big banks such as JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs have
announced that they would repay the Troubled Asset Relief
Program (TARP) funds soon. The government injected funds
into banks last year under the TARP program to stave off
liquidity crisis in banking. The TARP funds came with onerous
conditions, and bankers weren’t exactly comfortable with the
strings that came with the money. JP Morgan received $25
billion under the program and Jamie Dimon, its CEO, said
the bank will repay the TARP fund as soon as it can. Other
banks such as Goldman and Morgan Stanley have also expressed
interest in returning TARP funds at the earliest. Government
officials, however, have made it clear that banks should
prove they have sufficient capital and are in a position to
raise equity and debt capital without government guarantees,
before they are allowed to return TARP funds.
Short Sales Stress Test – What is Your Grade?

Big banks balked but the government believes it is critical to
help reassure the masses of fearful investors (although
just in case, they are reluctant to report the results much
less details on what was actually included in the stress
test…so much for unbiased scrutiny). Whatever your view of
the recent stress test, one thing is certain…despite the
reportedly minimalistic expectations…several banks still
failed. Never one to let a good thing go, we decided to
create our own version of the stress test just for short
sale investors. Call it our way of honoring the creativity
and complexity of good old Uncle Sam.

1.    Yes or No…if unemployment rises above 10 percent and
home prices fall by another 25 percent would you be able to
survive by raising additional private funds or by accepting
a bigger investment from the U.S. government?

2.    Yes or No…do you have any money in the bank
whatsoever? Can you at least pretend you will pay your
creditors a small portion of what is owed at some point
and time into the future?

3.    Yes or No…could you possibly survive a 3.3 percent
contraction or decline in the economy assuming a worst
case scenario?

4.    Yes or No…would you be able to retain key employees
(including yourself) by paying out a maximum of a 9 percent
bonus or dividend on top of those multi-million dollar
salaries?

5.    Yes or No…do you have anything left on the books
that can remotely be considered capital? We’d like to
see six percent of Tier one but if that is hard to come by
then just forget Tier 1 capital like common stock (or
preferred), debt-equity instruments or other…just let us
know if you have anything that can serve as capital?

6.    Yes or No…does anyone in the company have any actual
cash on hand? We really just need enough to get some java
at Starbucks but we’ll negotiate a more positive government
interest if we are caffeinated enough to think clearly.

7.    Yes or No…do you agree to the mandatory gag order
imposed by the federal government in relation to this
mandatory stress test despite legal orders to disclose
material information when attempting to raise funding or
secure investment dollars?

———
See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html
P.S.
Don’t miss our webinar Sunday at 8:00 PM ET, 5:00 PM PST:
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/497748842
Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute 2009.
All Rights Reserved.
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as Americaís top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.
* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month
* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid flipping of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
properties
* Owner and Supervising Broker of one of Florida’s
largest Real Estate firms, running 4 different
offices, supporting nearly 450 agents, uniquely
positioning him to help thousands of investors
make money in the biggest market opportunity ever!
* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building
* On twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* On facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/addfriend.php?id=709199143

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General Growth Properties files for bankruptcy

by Chris McLaughlin on April 17, 2009

General Growth Properties files for bankruptcy

 

Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, April 17, 2009
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html

——–

No money, no credit – but an honest desire to succeed? 

That’s all it takes to get into the lucrative business of

finding and flipping short sale properties.  We’ve had

people go from zero to six figures in less than six months! 

 

See if there’re any spots left for this webinar this

Saturday:

 

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/357681810

———
General Growth Properties files for bankruptcy

 

The U.S. real estate sector witnessed one of its largest failures yesterday when General Properties, the second largest mall owner in the U.S., filed for bankruptcy protection. While the company has been making money at the operating level, it was forced into bankruptcy on account of it not being able to refinance mortgages.  The company blamed it on the collapse of the credit markets.  Mike Prew, an analyst with Nomura securities said, “This underscores that real estate companies are most vulnerable to refinancing risk rather than market risk.”  Indeed, liquidity problems can lead to solvency problems. The competitors of General Growth Properties must be looking for cheap pickings from the real estate portfolio of the company.  How endemic is the problem?  What about the fate of smaller real estate companies?  What is the likely impact of this on banks that have made loans to real estate companies?  Scary and depressing.

 

Joseph Stiglitz lambasts the bank rescue initiatives of Obama administration

 

Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz, who, some weeks ago, described the toxic asset plan of Tim Geithner as “privatizing of gains” and “socializing of losses,” came down heavily on the bank rescue initiatives of the U.S. government in an interview yesterday. According to Stiglitz, the size of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) is not big enough to adequately capitalize the banking system, and tax payers’ return from TARP is just about 25 cents on a dollar. “The bank restructuring has been an absolute mess,” said Stiglitz. Stiglitz also expressed concern about the links between Wall Street and the President’s advisers. Citing potential conflicts of interest, Stiglitz said those who designed the rescue plans are, “either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent.”

 

Credit-card securities under pressure

 

According JP Morgan’s Bankcard Index, an indicator of credit card market performance, charge-offs (card credit debt gone bad) increased from 8.4 percent in February to 8.82 percent in March. This is in line with the rise in unemployment rate. Despite the increase in charge-offs, JP Morgan expressed optimism in the future performance of the credit card market on account of the positive impact of the Federal Reserve’s Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility, a program aimed at reviving consumer lending. Obama administration officials will meet executives of credit card companies next Thursday to discuss lending practices and rates charged. The government is considering introducing a legislation to curb “deceptive” practices (read, hidden fees and usurious interest rates) of credit card companies.

 

Banking stress test

 

As part of introducing its plan for bringing about financial stability, the Obama administration has been conducting stress tests and what-if analyses to evaluate the impact of the economic environment on the banking system. The government will disclose the assumptions underlying the stress tests on April 24. Between April 24 and May 4, the banks – some 19 of the nation’s largest — that are participating in the stress tests will have an opportunity to comment on the test framework. On May 4, the government will announce the results of the tests and highlight the capital adequacy requirements of the banking system given the different economic scenarios. The test results are likely to provide fodder for both critics and supporters of the government bailout plans.

 

Residential Capital hiring 1000 people

 

Some good news, at last. Residential Capital LLC, the mortgage unit of GMAC, has announced it is hiring 1000 people to meet the requirements of business growth. With over $10 billion in losses over the last couple of years, Residential Capital’s very survival was in question not so long ago. GMAC announced last September that it was planning to fire over 50% of Residential Capital staff and close down all its offices. The firm received $6 billion bailout from the government last December and has benefited from the growth in demand for refinancing on account of drop in mortgage rates.

 

Now on to our real estate investing education section…

 

Time is On Your Side – Short Sale Investors

 

Like the old Rolling Stones song “Time is one my side” short sale investors may also find themselves joined by millions of Americans who have come running back to real estate after taking a temporary respite. Wondering why? It’s simple. Real estate has historically been one of the few roads to real wealth throughout the world. Going back as far as Greece, Rome and other empires, those that owned land and the underlying natural resources were the wealthiest in the land. It’s a simple time tested fact.

 

However, that isn’t the end of the story, Another equally important phenomena is at work. Namely, short term losses are typically less important than long term gains. Over time, the inflationary pressures exerted by a capitalistic based economy result in a rise of all asset groups. Consider these interesting statistics…

 

On any given day, roughly half of all investors will make a profit while the other half of investors will lose money.

 

Over a one month period of time, roughly 55 percent of investors will make a profit while the rest lose money.

 

Over a three month period of time a little over 60 percent will make money while the rest lose.

 

Over a year that may grow to as high as 70 percent and eventually, if you take the time period out long enough, close to 100 percent of people will “make” money.

 

So, how can so many people make money while still losing so much? It’s simple. Most investments are measured in nominal terms prior to taxes, interest, holding fees and other expenses. Next, the time value of money means it is entirely possible to “make money” while watching the true purchasing power of an investment shrink.

 

The same trends hold true for real estate as other investments. While it is entirely possible to lose money now and then, the long term potential is quite positive for turning profits related to buying short sale real estate. History has also shown this to be true; hold long enough and real estate invariable looks like a real steal.  Not convinced? Just take a look from the pages of history itself; each of these were scorned as a bad buy. Today they would be pocket change for large private investors like Trump.

 

The Louisiana Purchase: The United States paid roughly $15 million dollars for what later became Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, parts of Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Wyoming and Colorado.

 

The Alaska Purchase:  Costing just over $7 million dollars, Alaska was considered little more than a barren wasteland by many.

 

The Florida Purchase: At $5 million dollars, the original purchase price of Florida could barely cover the cost of many personal estates today.

 

See you at the top!

 

 

Chris McLaughlin

http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html  

 

P.S.

 

Don’t miss our webinar Saturday at 3:30 PM ET, 12:30 PM PST:

 

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/357681810

 

P.P.S.:

Check out one of the ShortSalesRiches students holding himself as well as us accountable to whether the system truly works!  Go here now to

watch the videos from John Michailids:

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

and

http://www.willjohnmakeit.com

 

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute 2009.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com 
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com *************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…

http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

 

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

 

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month

   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid flipping of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties

    * Owner and Supervising Broker of one of Florida’s
     largest Real Estate firms, running 4 different
     offices, supporting nearly 450 agents, uniquely
     positioning him to help thousands of investors
     make money in the biggest market opportunity ever!

     * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building

     * On twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
     * On facebook:

http://www.facebook.com/addfriend.php?id=709199143

 

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How to Irritate Lenders– Short Sale Newbie Mistakes

by Chris McLaughlin on April 10, 2009

Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, April 10, 2009
http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html

——–

No money, no credit – but an honest desire to succeed? 

That’s all it takes to get into the lucrative business of

finding and flipping short sale properties.  We’ve had

people go from zero to six figures in less than six months! 

 

See if there’re any spots left for this webinar tonight where

we explain it all this Saturday:

 

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/843758890

———

Mortgage rates up, but still low

Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) today.  For the week ending April 9, 2009, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.87 percent, up from last week when it averaged 4.78 percent.  Mind you, last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.88 percent.  Homeowner affordability should stay at record levels according to Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s vice president and chief economist:  “Mortgage rates rose slightly this week but still remained historically low,” he said.  “Given these low rates, housing demand has strengthened.  Conventional mortgage applications both for refinancing and for home purchases have increased over the past five consecutive weeks ending April 3.”

 

 

Oil demand to drop and stay low

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said world oil demand will drop by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2009, blaming a growing consensus that economic recovery won’t take place until next year.  It said demand for this year was expected to be 83.4 million bpd, around one million bpd less than in its previous monthly report, a rate of oil demand contraction last seen in the early 1980s.  The IEA’s report said expectations of a collapse in fuel consumption were not “solely conjecture,” and cited early indications of “much lower” demand in developed and non-developed countries for the first quarter of this year.   The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has agreed to reduce supply by 4.2 million bpd since September, but in last month’s report, the IEA said even with strict adherence with OPEC supply cuts already in place oil stocks in developed nations won’t shrink until the middle of the year, and demand is already expected to contract further.

 

Goldman Sachs buying out of TARP?

According to a Wall Street Journal report, Goldman Sachs is considering a new stock sale to repay the $10 billion loan it received from the government last year under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).  Goldman could announce the offering to investors as early as next week, the report said and it is expected to be several billion dollars.  It’s really no wonder, since along with the money came an inquisition, all sorts of obligations, and public humiliation from the same politicians who set the stage for the problem in the first place.  If there’s one thing worse than bankers with their hands on our money, it’s politicians.

 

Stress Tests pass, and fail

The “stress tests” the administration is conducting on the banks to see how well they would hold up if the recession deepens is under wraps for now, since President Obama asked the banks not to reveal the results until sometime around the end of April.  The surprise profit announcement for Wells Fargo may have kicked off a rally yesterday, but the results of the stress tests will probably show that the banks will still need more bailout funds.  Regulators say all 19 banks undergoing the exams will pass the tests, but add that no bank CAN fail them, since taxpayers will make sure they stay liquid.  And in spite of the recent rally, some analysts say that with the recession, banks are likely to record further large losses on credit cards, corporate loans and real estate.  Obama will meet today with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Chairman Sheila Bair to discuss the stress tests.

 

What does $11 Trillion look like?

CNBC has a series of graphics giving viewers a visual of just how deep in a hole we are – or in this case how big of a stack we are.  The national debt is shown as a huge stack of greenbacks dwarfing the Dubai Tower (tallest building in the world) and accompanied by the following caption: 

 

US National Debt

$11,046,247,657,049.48 (According to US Treasury Direct, 3/26/09)

The mounting US National debt, growing by billions every day, has recently topped the $11 trillion mark.  If denominated in $1 bills, the cash would stack as high as the tallest building in the world, the 2683.7 foot Burj Dubai skyscraper… 1,474,918 times.  At this height, it would create a block of bills with a base approximately twice the size of the Empire State Building, which is just under the size of three American football fields.


It is also interesting to note that this number is approximately 13 times the amount of US currency in circulation, according to the Treasury bulletin, which lists the amount at $853.6 billion as of December 31, 2008.

 

Now on to our real estate investing education section…

 

How to Irritate Lenders– Short Sale Newbie Mistakes

 

With all the benefits to be derived from approving a short sale offer, you might wonder why any bank would rather risk long vacancies, vandalism, months of no mortgage payments and the eventual cost and uncertainty associated with a home going to auction or other foreclosure sale. Believe it or not, most short sale investors simply don’t have the know-how to get the job done right. To put it plainly, the lack of professionalism and irritating actions dramatically decrease their odds of obtaining a great investment property. Find out a few of the more common ways to irritate your lender then sign-up with the ShortSalesRiches.com series to learn the right way to make money from short sales.

 

Badgering. Let’s face it, nobody likes to be badgered. Yes, you might be excited by submitting your first short sale offer but resist the urge to call too often or otherwise badger overworked staff. Maintain regular contact and put a system into place.

 

How Low Can You Go—Not that Low! While lowball offers are expected, don’t waste everyone’s time by submitting something excessively below the current market value. Keep it realistic and plan to justify the reasons why you think the offer is fair.

 

Requesting Repairs or Refunds. Although there are exceptions to every rule, short sales are sold ‘as-is’. The price should reflect needed repairs – including time and labor. Don’t expect the bank, lender or current homeowner to fix or repair anything. Problems that arise after the sale are also your problem so be sure to add in a bit of wiggle room especially if the homeowner plans to occupy the house for some time during or after the sale.

 

Bad Credit. Yes, they will look. Get your own finances in order and make a point of presenting them in the best light possible.

 

Threats.  Threatening to walk away from a deal, sue or other tactics rarely result in anything more than frustration for everyone involved. Unless a gross degree of misconduct was perpetuate against you related to a federal issues such as discrimination or other similar point, regular day to day mishaps are part of learning how to play the game. It’s essential to have a tried and true system in place that maximizes profit while minimizing time.

 

Homeowners with Assets. Homeowners have to demonstrate their need an inability to pay before a lender will agree to take a major loss. If your homeowner has other assets that could be turned into cash or compensate the lender for a loss then there is a high likelihood your offer will be rejected. Do your homework before blaming the bank – make sure the deal is win-win for all involved or you will likely just waste everyone’s time.

 

See you at the top!

 

 

Chris McLaughlin

http://www.shortsalesriches.com/welcome.html  

 

P.S.

 

Don’t miss our webinar Saturday at 3:30 PM EST, 12:30 PM PST:

https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/843758890

 

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute 2009.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com 
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com *************************************************
Finally, a blog for Real Estate professionals
that want up-to-the-minute news, & how it impacts
us and our market…

http://www.shortsalesriches.com/blog

*************************************************

About the author:

 

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

 

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month

   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid flipping of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties

    * Owner and Supervising Broker of one of Florida’s
     largest Real Estate firms, running 4 different
     offices, supporting nearly 450 agents, uniquely
     positioning him to help thousands of investors
     make money in the biggest market opportunity ever!

     * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building

     * On twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
     * On facebook:

http://www.facebook.com/addfriend.php?id=709199143

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