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Olick – new wave of foreclosures coming

by admin on September 14, 2011

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin September 14, 2011

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Olick – new wave of foreclosures coming

“Bank of America is ramping up its foreclosure processing, sending out far more notices of default to borrowers in August than in previous months, well over 200% more month-to-month. A notice of default is the first stage of the foreclosure process in non-judicial foreclosures states, that is, where foreclosures do not go before a judge. The notice of default is usually sent when a borrower is 90 days or more overdue in payments, but that timeline has been extended significantly during this housing crisis, due to the so-called ‘robo-signing’ processing scandal and the sheer volume of troubled loans.

Mortgage and housing analyst and strategist Mark Hanson alerted me to unusually high legal default filing activity, and his research points to Bank of America as the primary driver. I contacted a Bank of America spokesman, who responded: ‘It appears the numbers you noted to me this afternoon generally track with our own numbers for key categories. It should be noted it’s driven more in key states like California and Nevada than overall, and certainly the progress we’re seeing is limited to non-judicial states. Judicial states continue to move very slowly, with key states like New Jersey only beginning to start processing foreclosures again this month.’

The foreclosure numbers are down very slightly year-over-year, but only because August 2010 was one of the highest foreclosure months on record, and of course was just before the ‘robo-signing’ scandal was uncovered. Delays in processing have artificially lowered the foreclosure numbers over the past year, so this new surge is likely addressing loans that have been long delinquent, but unaddressed. In other words, the foreclosure pipeline is filling again. RealtyTrac, a widely followed foreclosure sale and data site, is also confirming a surge in overall notices of default in its August numbers, to be released later this week. They do not cite Bank of America specifically, which bought Countrywide Financial, taking on millions of troubled loans. ‘We’ve been seeing REO [bank-owned property] sales, and processing of loans through foreclosure. This increase may simply be the lenders and servicers starting the next cycle. August traditionally is a high month for foreclosure actions, so part of the increase might be seasonal,’ says RealtyTrac’s Rick Sharga. ‘Could be any number of reasons – but with 3.5 million delinquent loans, this had to happen sooner or later.’

The question of course is, is this a one month catch-up purge or will it continue at high levels for a while? And if the latter, will other banks follow suit quickly? Because if other banks see Bank of America pushing more loans to foreclosure, which will inevitably means more properties heading out for sale, they may want to get in before that glut of properties pushes prices down even further. ‘This proves once again that ‘credit’ as measured by legal defaults and foreclosures is not necessarily about borrowers missing payments, rather about what the servicers chose to do about it,’ notes Hanson.”

CBO cuts economic outlook

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) —the non-partisan budget and economic analyst for Congress—said economic growth would slow from previous estimates and a nagging, 9.1% jobless rate would basically remain stuck there through next year’s presidential and congressional elections. CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf said his agency now sees economic growth of around 1.5% this year and 2.5% in 2012. That’s down from CBO’s August estimate of 2.3% and 2.7%, respectively. New data since CBO pieced together its August outlook contributed to the downward estimates, Elmendorf said. The unemployment rate, now at 9.1%, will remain “close to 9% through the end of 2012,” Elmendorf said. Last month, CBO estimated joblessness at 8.9% this year, falling to 8.5% in 2012.

MBA – mortgage applications up

Mortgage applications increased 6.3% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 9, 2011. This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Labor Day holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 15.4% compared with the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7.0% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 16.2% compared with the previous week and was 7.2% lower than the same week one year ago.

The Refinance Index increased 6.0% from the previous week, stopping a run of three consecutive weekly decreases. The Refinance Index is not seasonally adjusted but is adjusted for the holiday. On an unadjusted basis, the Refinance Index decreased 15.2% and is 23.5% lower than the same week a year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 2.9%. The four week moving average is up 0.5% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 3.9% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 77.3% of total applications from 77.1% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.9% from 7.1% of total applications from the previous week.

Wholesale prices flat, inflation eases

Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core wholesale prices edged up 0.1%, the smallest increase in three months. The figures indicate that inflation pressures are easing. The Producer Price Index, which measures price changes before they reach the consumer, was unchanged in August, the Labor Department said Wednesday, after a 0.2% rise in July. In the past 12 months, the index has increased 6.5%, mostly due to higher gas and food costs. That’s the smallest 12-month rise since March, though much bigger than the annual changes late last year. Core prices rose 2.5% in the past 12 months, the same pace as July.

Food prices rose 1.1% in August, the largest increase since February. Egg prices jumped nearly 11%, the most since April, while processed chicken prices increased 3.7%, the most in five years. That likely reflects the higher cost of corn and other grains that are used for animal feed. Processed fruits and vegetables rose 2%, the most since February 1990. The core index was pushed up by a jump in tire prices, which rose 1.4%, the most in four months. Wholesale gasoline prices, meanwhile, fell 1% in August, and home heating oil dropped 1.2%. Sharp increases in the prices of oil, food and other commodities pushed up most measures of inflation earlier this year. But now that many commodities are becoming less expensive, inflation pressures are fading.

What might work in Obama’s jobs plan

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor critiqued the Obama jobs plan on Tuesday, pointing out areas lawmakers can agree on as well as areas that House Republicans will oppose — including stimulus spending and tax hikes on the rich. “We need to work very hard to try to peel off things that we can actually agree on,” Cantor said at a summit hosted by the American Action Forum, a right-leaning think tank created by deficit hawk Doug Holtz-Eakin, a former Congressional Budget Office director. Cantor provided new insight on Republican reaction to the $447 billion Obama jobs package that the White House officially sent Congress on Monday. “Let’s get some wins on the board together. And then we’ll have to disagree to disagree on some of the things that will have to be decided in public debates in the next election.”

One of those areas Republicans want to leave to voters: Tax hikes for the rich. President Obama’s largest proposed pay-for — which the White House estimates would raise roughly $400 billion over 10 years — limits itemized deductions and certain other exemptions for individuals with adjusted gross incomes of $200,000 or more ($250,000 and up for married couples). Cantor said that’s not going to happen. “Republicans are not going to accept tax increases if the goal is to grow the economy,” he said. The No. 2 House Republican also elaborated a nuanced opposition to some details of the Obama jobs package that Republicans agree on in principle, like infrastructure spending.

The White House and some Republicans have talked about creating an infrastructure bank that would pair public and private dollars to finance projects that revamp roads and bridges. But Cantor blasted that proposal on Tuesday. “I, for one, think that infrastructure bank is akin to creating a Fannie and Freddie for roads and bridges,” Cantor said comparing the idea to the struggling government-owned mortgage finance companies. “It’s something we don’t need to do.” He said he’d rather see expedited permitting for such projects, which is included in the Obama package.

With 14 million workers jobless, Cantor acknowledged the enormity of the problem. But he doesn’t believe in a no-strings-attached extension of unemployment benefits. Without going into details, Cantor said he’d favor an extension only if it were tied to “job opportunities.” “Unemployment benefits should not turn into a permanent solution,” Cantor said. “We should somehow connect unemployment benefits with work or a job opportunity.”

In his Tuesday speech, Cantor also pointed out areas of bipartisan agreement, like giving more generous tax breaks to small businesses and pulling back burdensome regulations. President Obama has said he will push hard for his new jobs proposal to be passed in its entirety — not piecemeal. However, the president won’t veto pieces of the jobs package, if Congress passes them that way, a top Administration official on Tuesday.

Orlando prices jump 15%

As foreclosures and short sales made up a shrinking share of local home sales, home prices in Orlando jumped 15% in August from a year earlier. The Orlando metro area’s median price for August was $115,000, up 21.2% from January and 15.1% from August 2010, according to a report from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. “A steady rise in the percentage of ‘normal’ sales — those that are neither bank-owned nor short sales — continues to boost the overall price,” said the report. Those “normal” transactions made up 41% of sales in August, down a percentage point from July. That was the first decline in such sales after they rose for six consecutive months.

Even with prices on the upswing, though, sellers continue to overprice their homes, the report shows. The average home sold for 95% of its listing price in August, after spending an average of 101 days on the market before coming under contract. Affordability numbers suggest the Orlando market still has a large amount of unmet demand. The area’s affordability index rose to 248 in August, showing median income earners make more than twice as much as they need to in order to qualify for a median-priced home. “Affordability conditions this year have been enormously favorable, but many buyers are being held back because banks are offering financing to only the most highly qualified borrowers and ignoring a large share of otherwise creditworthy buyers,” said association Chairman Mike McGraw of McGraw Realty Services, Inc. “Those potential buyers represent the difference between an uneven recovery and a much more robust housing market that in Orlando and even on a national scale could stimulate additional economic activity and create jobs.”

The number of Orlando home sales completed in August fell 8.7% to 2,342 from a year earlier, as bank-owned sales fell 51%. Short sales and “normal” sales each rose 32%. Meanwhile, led by a decline in the number of condominiums for sale, Orlando’s for-sale housing inventory fell 39% to 10,055. That put inventory at a 4.29 month supply. Average interest rates paid by buyers fell to 4.26%, the lowest level since the realtor association began tracking it in 1995.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

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MBA proposes reserve account for delinquencies

by admin on July 11, 2011

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin July 11, 2011

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DSNews.com – MBA proposes reserve account for delinquencies

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae are in the process of developing new servicing compensation structures to provide greater flexibility for the servicing of nonperforming loans. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is recommending that they consider the idea of a new “reserve account” strategy to cover the higher expenses associated with default servicing.

David Stevens, MBA’s president and CEO, explained the concept of his organization’s reserve account proposal to lawmakers at a congressional hearing this week on mortgage servicing standards. Under this proposal, Stevens said, the new “normal servicing” fee would drop from 25 basis points to 20 basis points, but five additional basis points would be collected from borrower payments and set aside in a “trust” cash account. These cash reserves would remain in the account for a specified period and be used to pay for the higher servicing costs that come with handling delinquent mortgages, Stevens explained. “Servicers could recapture the funds based upon a specified seasoning, level of portfolio performance, and other factors deemed appropriate,” Stevens said. He also stressed to lawmakers that the higher expense of default servicing should be a consideration when crafting new regulatory standards for mortgage servicing. “National servicing standards should ensure the fair treatment of servicers and recognize the economic realities of the servicing business,” Stevens noted. He says new rules must take into account the costs of delinquency and foreclosure, including late fees and other compensatory fees necessary to offset the cost of delinquency. “Many of the suggested standards question these charges,” Stevens said, “yet these fees are necessary to ensure quality customer service, to enable advance payments to bondholders as required, and to provide the loss mitigation products borrowers seek.” According to Stevens, policymakers have a delicate balancing act ahead of them when it comes to crafting new standards that meet the needs of both borrowers and servicers.

More talk of double dip

June’s miserable jobs report has put the fear of a double dip recession back into the markets. As you know, the US economy only added 18,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate climbed to 9.2% from 9.1% as laid off government workers continued to join the ranks of the unemployed. There were also 44,000 fewer jobs created than previously reported for April and May. “Even the hours worked slipped. It’s just a horrific report. Unemployment going up is not good,” said Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman chief currency strategist. Many Wall Street economists, and the Federal Reserve, have declared the slowdown in GDP growth in the first half of the year a transitory phenomena, and the weak jobs report now raised the question of whether that soft patch was softer than previously expected. The sluggishness has been blamed on a combination of things, including Japan’s supply chain disruptions, high energy costs and a variety of weather disasters across the US Some economists had seen June as the turning point, from which job growth would increase on a monthly basis before returning to the 200,000 level later in the year.

But the report showed that the private sector added only 57,000 workers, down from 73,000 in May. Government employment was cut by 39,000 workers, as state and local governments struggle with budget deficits. Revisions showed that only 25,000 jobs were added in May and 217,000 were created in April. “From the bond market perspective, we’ve slowly been coming around to the idea that we’ve got a problem here. We’ve been distracted to some degree by Europe, and we thought the soft patch would give way to something firmer. That doesn’t seem to be the case,” said Ader. “…Some things like inflation expectations can be self-fulfilling. So can confidence in the job market.”

Olick – household shifts could affect recovery

“Every now and then you need to take a step back and put the housing market into perspective, take a break from all the monthly motions and commotions, stress and distress. Today I read a report that did just that. It takes a big-picture snapshot of how housing has fundamentally changed over the past several decades, which could have a big impact on its future as the industry rebuilds itself, literally and economically.

The report, from John Burns Real Estate Consulting’s Chris Porter, is titled simply, ‘Tremendous Demographic Shift.’ And the numbers are pretty tremendous. ‘The number of non-family households—people living alone or households that do not have any members related to the householder—has increased nearly five times in the last 50 years, from 7.9 million to 39.2 million. At the same time, the number of family households has increased by just 1.7 times, from 45.1 million to 77.5 million,’ according to Porter. In addition, married couples have dropped to less than half of all US households from 75% in 1960. So let’s think about the current housing stock, much of which is more than 50 years old. We’ve recently seen a downsizing trend for several reasons, namely the weak economy and builders constructing cheaper homes to meet the demand but also the environmental movement and the high cost of energy.
But this comes right after the ‘McMansion’ era when oversized homes were all the rage. Those homes, of course, still exist in vast quantities, despite the fact that there are, according to this report, fewer big family households and therefore less need for large square footage. We’ve also talked a lot about the surge in renting; we’ve blamed it on the housing crash, fear of buying into a depreciating market and the tight credit conditions that are pricing many potential buyers out.

Perhaps there’s more to it than that as well. Perhaps with fewer large family households and less desire for a big space, smaller, full-service rental apartments are more desirable to a growing segment of the population. ‘Family households are more likely to stretch for size over location. Non-family households are more likely to value location—proximity to work, entertainment, etc.—and then size. They are less willing to commute than a family household,’ noted Porter. We also have to look at the growing population of Americans who intend to ‘age in place,’ that is, the baby boomers who are moving out of the big family homes but not into what we used to call ‘retirement homes.’ Now they’re ‘active adult communities,’ with smaller one-story homes. That demographic, though, plays against a growing demographic of Hispanic Americans. The average Hispanic household is statistically larger than the national average.
So what should home builders and housing watchers take from all this?

Obviously there are and always will be large families in the suburbs who want to live in big houses. There will always be wealthy Americans who desire to live in spaces that far exceed their needs. But the shift in household size cannot simply be considered anecdotal. When you couple that shift with a much-changed mortgage market, one that prices so many more Americans out of larger, move-up homes, you have to be concerned about what happens to the stock of larger homes, old and new. Do we see huge price reductions as demand falters?”

Benefits checks running out

Close to $2 of every $10 that went into Americans’ wallets last year were payments like jobless benefits, food stamps, Social Security and disability, according to an analysis by Moody’s Analytics. In states hit hard by the downturn, like Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Ohio, residents derived even more of their income from the government. By the end of this year, however, many of those dollars are going to disappear, with the expiration of extended benefits intended to help people cope with the lingering effects of the recession. Moody’s Analytics estimates $37 billion will be drained from the nation’s pocketbooks this year. Unless hiring picks up sharply to compensate, economists fear that the lost income will further crimp consumer spending and act as a drag on a recovery that is still quite fragile. Among the other supports that are slipping away are federal aid to the states, the Federal Reserve’s program to pump money into the economy and the payroll tax cut, scheduled to expire at the end of the year. “If we don’t get more job growth and gains in wages and salaries, then consumers just aren’t going to have the firepower to spend, and the economy is going to weaken,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, a macroeconomic consulting firm. Job growth has remained elusive. There are 4.6 unemployed workers for every opening, according to the Labor Department, and Friday’s unemployment report showed that employers added an anemic 18,000 jobs in June.

Throughout the recession and its aftermath, government benefits have helped keep money in people’s wallets and, in turn, circulating among businesses. Total government payments rose to $2.3 trillion in 2010, from $1.7 trillion in 2007, an increase of about 35%. While some of that growth was in Social Security and disability benefits as the population aged, the majority resulted from payments to people continuing to suffer from the recession, said Mr. Zandi. Unemployment benefits, including emergency and extended benefits, are more than three times their prerecession level, he said. The nearly 20% of personal income now provided by the government is close to a record high. Approved by Congress last December, the final extension of jobless benefits — for a maximum of 99 weeks for each unemployed person — is scheduled to conclude at the end of this year. A handful of states, like Wisconsin and Arizona, have already cut off weeks 80 through 99 for their residents. Meanwhile, more of the long-term unemployed are bumping up against the 99-week limit.

DSNews.com – foreclosures down 51% in south Florida

During the second quarter of 2011, foreclosure actions plunged by 51% in the tri-county South Florida region compared to the same three-month period in 2010, according to a new report from CondoVultures.com. Lenders filed close to 7,200 notices of default between April and June in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties. Nearly 14,800 were filed in the second quarter of 2010. These numbers represent a continued tumble from previous years – with 28,400 foreclosure actions filed in the second quarter of 2009. At the current pace, foreclosure filings in 2011 would rank as the fewest number of actions since the South Florida real estate downturn began, according to the report. Administrative irregularities in the foreclosure process in late September 2010 created a “foreclosure freeze,” especially in judicial states such as Florida.

Lenders filed 61% fewer notices of default in the tri-county South Florida region between October and December of last year than they did during the same three-month period in 2009, according to the report. The aftereffects continue to impact the South Florida market. Lenders have also slowed foreclosure efforts due to the rising costs and difficulty involved with repossessing properties from borrowers in default, CondoVultures explained in a statement. Prior to the real estate crash, lenders expected the foreclosure process to take about six months to complete and cost about $40,000. In South Florida today, lenders now plan for an 18-month repossession process at about $100,000 per property. Nearly 280,000 notices of default have been filed against borrowers in South Florida between January 2007 and June 2011.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2010.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

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More tweaks for short sales?

by admin on July 6, 2011

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin July 6,
2011

Forward this e-mail to your friends!
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More tweaks for short sales?

According to officials administering the initiative, the Treasury Department is considering more changes to the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) program in order to boost short sales and deeds-in-lieu of foreclosure. In May, the Treasury hosted a HAFA summit with representatives from the mortgage industry. They included mortgage servicers, investors, real estate professionals and insurers – the direct stakeholders in a short sale decision. A Treasury spokesperson said they are looking at making “modest changes and clarifications to program guidance,” but no details could immediately be given.

HAFA launched in April 2010 to provide servicers an incentive to boost short sales and DILs for loans that fell out of the larger Home Affordable Modification Program. Through May, participating servicers started 17,781 agreements under HAFA and completed 8,541. JPMorgan Chase started nearly one-third of the agreements already in the process. In January, the Treasury eliminated some HAFA rules that constricted eligibility. For instance, servicers are no longer required to verify a borrower’s financial information or determine if the borrower’s total monthly mortgage payment exceeds a 31% debt-to-income ratio. But through April, the top-10 servicers provided more than 113,000 short sales and DILs through their own private programs. That’s nearly 10 times the amount of HAFA.

A wider HAFA program could cut into the 2.1 million trial modifications the top-10 servicers denied or canceled due to insufficient documentation, redefault or the borrower was deemed ineligible through April. Roughly 646,000 of these loans received an alternative modification, but servicers started another 307,000 and completed 136,000 foreclosures through April, according to the Treasury.

Sluggish growth ahead

According to a CNN survey of 27 economists, sluggish economic growth will continue into 2012, if not beyond, with only modest hiring and high unemployment. The economists predict that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation’s economic health, will grow at only a 2% annual rate in the second quarter, little improved from the 1.9% growth rate in the first three months of the year. For the full year, they’re projecting growth of 2.6% — even weaker than in 2010. While they expect growth to pick up to 3% in 2012, that’s just barely enough to get employers hiring at a significant pace.

Forecasts for the job market aren’t much better. The June jobs report due Friday is expected to show 120,000 jobs added to payrolls, with businesses adding 130,000 as government employment continues to decline. Typically, the economy needs to add about 150,000 just to keep pace with population growth.
The unemployment rate is expected to fall only slightly to 9% from 9.1% in May. Hiring for all of 2011 is expected to come in just under 2 million jobs. And unemployment is expected to be at 8.7% at the end of this year.

The economists blame the hiring slump on uncertainty about consumer demand and Washington’s future actions on debt, health care reform and financial regulation. While the forecast is slightly better for hiring next year, with economists expecting about 200,000 jobs being added on average each month, that will only be enough to bring unemployment down to 8.1% by the end of 2012. For that reason, most economists don’t expect the Federal Reserve to start reining in the economy anytime soon, even though inflation is likely to pick up. The economists predict overall prices will rise about 3.2% this year, up from 1.2% last year.

Only two economists expect a rate hike from the central bank this year, while about half expect the Fed’s next move will be to raise rates in 2012 or later. Others expect lower-profile steps, like setting an explicit inflation target or changing the interest rate paid on excess reserves. None of them expect the Fed to embark on another round of asset purchases to pump cash into the economy, a controversial effort known as quantitative easing, although Keith Hembre, chief economist of Nuveen Asset Management said that could happen if there is a European sovereign debt default or an unexpected hard landing for the Chinese economy.

MBA – mortgage applications decrease
Mortgage applications decreased 5.2% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 1, 2011. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5.1% compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 9.2% from the previous week. The Refinance Index has decreased for 3 consecutive weeks, reaching its lowest level since May 6, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4.8% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4.4% compared with the previous week and was 11.7% higher than the same week one year ago.

“Stronger economic data towards the end of the week coupled with the end of the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing helped bring mortgage rates to their highest level in over a month,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Refinance activity, already constrained by a smaller pool of eligible borrowers, declined in response to the higher rates, but purchase applications picked up appreciably in the week before the July 4th holiday.” The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.5%. The four week moving average is up 0.8% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 1.1% for the Refinance Index. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 66.4% of total applications from 69.5% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 6.1% from 5.8% of total applications from the previous week.

Pace of layoffs slowing

According to a monthly survey by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, planned job cuts rose 11.6% to 41,432 in June, but the overall pace of downsizing fell to its lowest level in 11 years. The mid-year total of 245,806 layoffs is the lowest since the turn of the century, according to the report, which noted that since a lull in April, companies have been looking to increase the pace of job cuts in May and June.

The government sector is the most active in trimming staff, the Challenger report noted. The public sectors accounted for 77,591 of the total cuts, although the year-on-year figures show a slowing of the pace of layoffs. Almost 100,000 government jobs were lost in the first half of 2010. The aerospace and defense industry, which is heavily exposed to government spending, has seen a considerable spike in downsizing this year. In the first half of 2011, the sector saw a 241% increase in job cuts over the previous year, from 6,121 to 20,851, according to the report. Financial-services companies are still cutting staff, with 11,734 laid off in the first six months of 2011, up 18.5% on the previous year. Cuts in the industrial goods sector also increased.

John A. Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said that while these are “bellwether industries” for the overall health of the economy, the cuts were low enough “to prevent alarm bells from sounding.” There was no reason to predict a surge in job cuts in the second half of the year, he added. “Any progress made on the hiring front will appear anemic due to the fact that we started in such a deep hole,” Challenger said. “To provide some perspective, the 16-month long recession that stretched from July 1981 to November 1982 resulted in 2.7 million job losses from the nation’s payrolls. It took about 11 months for employment to return to pre-recession levels. “Following the relatively short 2001 recession, which also saw 2.7 million jobs losses, it took nearly 40 months for payrolls to return to pre-recession levels… So, while we expect that employers will continue to steadily add jobs in the second half of 2011, at times it will appear that employment is standing still,” he said.

WSJ – new mortgage caps coming

The federal government is readying its first retreat from the mortgage market, with the size of loans eligible for government backing set to decline in October. As an emergency measure three years ago, Congress raised to as high as $729,750 the maximum loan amount that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and federal agencies could guarantee. That made it easier—and cheaper—for borrowers in pricey housing markets to obtain mortgages, because the government guarantees that investors receive payments on those mortgages even if homeowners default. Now those limits are set to decline modestly in hundreds of counties across the US as the government attempts to reduce its outsized footprint in the mortgage market and create room for private investors to compete. Government-related entities stand behind more than nine of 10 new mortgages, and taxpayers have sunk $138 billion into Fannie and Freddie, underscoring the eagerness to dial down the government’s share. The new limits will vary widely by location, but will drop to $625,500 in top-tier markets such as New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. Even though the new limits won’t take effect until Oct. 1, some lenders are already warning borrowers that they will stop accepting applications for loans that exceed the new limits much sooner, to ensure the loans are funded before the cutoff date.

US banks starting to loan

Second-quarter earnings reports due this month are likely to reveal a slight reversal of the long-term shrinkage in bank loan books, one of several positive signs for investors, bank analysts said. A number of other long-term clouds over the weakened banking sector may be clearing. Credit quality is on the mend, signaling that many large banks will bolster their bottom lines with money that had been reserved to cover losses on bad loans. Banks, of course, are far from being in the clear. Weak fixed-income trading and market volatility are believed to have weighed heavily on the biggest banks in the second quarter, while their net interest revenue continues to be pummeled by low interest rates. And low rates are expected to continue for the indefinite future. A growing loan book, however, could cover a multitude of woes. The Federal Reserve said last week that loans and leases in bank credit grew about 1% on an annual basis in both April and May, with the biggest growth — over 11% each month on an annual basis — coming from commercial and industrial loans.

Olick – will loan limits hurt or help?

“A few weeks ago the National Association of Home Builders put out a report asserting that new lower loan limits going into effect in October at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) ‘will reduce housing demand and place downward pressure on home prices in major housing markets.’ On the blog that day, I wrote that the games were only beginning. Now another report, this time from researchers at George Washington University, is suggesting just the opposite, that lower loan limits may raise cost for a very few borrowers, but overall will not affect most mortgage shoppers.

The report focuses on the FHA, claiming, ‘The FHA still could serve 95% of its historic targeted market even if the maximum FHA loan limit were reduced by nearly 50%.’ Its market share right now (30%) far exceeds its target population. ‘FHA’s expansion played a major role in keeping the housing market afloat during the economic collapse of 2008 and 2009,’ said Robert Van Order, co-author of the report. ‘However, we now are left with large loan limits that were set when home prices at the top of the bubble. They don’t reflect current market conditions and are unlikely to assist the FHA in reaching its historical constituencies – first time, minority and low income homebuyers.’ After analysis, researchers concluded that a loan limit of $350,000 in high cost markets at $200,000 in the lowest cost markets would, ‘satisfy more than 95% of FHA’s target constituency.’

Economist Paul Dales at Capital Economics extrapolates to Fannie and Freddie, and agrees, albeit with concerns: ‘The scheduled reduction in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of October is unlikely to trigger a further precipitous fall in house prices as some have suggested. Nevertheless, it certainly won’t help the market at a time when millions of households already can’t obtain a mortgage.’ Dales cites FHFA (the overseer of Fannie and Freddie) studies which find that the lower loan limits, ‘will only affect 250 counties, or just 8% of the 3,000 counties in the US…in 2010 the GSE’s provided just 50,000 mortgages ($3b) where the loan amount was above the new limits. I would add that they also come with even tougher credit standards, not that conforming loans these days aren’t tough enough to obtain.

A big issue, though, is who will fund this jumbo loan market that is about to get many more customers. Also, the bulk of the sales action right now is on the lower end of the market. If we’re going to return to a ‘normal’ housing market, we need those move-up buyers. Yes, the distress is on the low end, but the mid range is stalled, and that’s not healthy. I’m sure we’ll be hearing more as we near the fall.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2010.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

{ 0 comments }

HAMP found lacking, again

by admin on December 14, 2010

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 14, 2010

 Forward this e-mail to your friends!  Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:  http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

 *** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–> http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

 *** Follow Chris on Twitter–> http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

***************************************************

HAMP found lacking, again

Last April, the Congressional Oversight Panel found the program to be struggling to get off the ground despite having been in action for a year and a half. The latest evaluation of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) came out Tuesday and the result was — same deal.  HAMP has undergone tweaks since April. But the Congressional Oversight Panel, created to issue periodic reports on the TARP bailout program, found little improvement in performance.  Instead of helping 3 million to 4 million struggling mortgage borrowers keep their homes, as originally projected, HAMP will prevent only about 700,000 to 800,000 foreclosures. That number is dwarfed by the 8 million to 13 million foreclosures expected to occur by 2012.  Through the end of October, there have been 519,648 permanent modifications made.  And, since the Treasury Department lost the authority to further restructure the program at the end of October, bolstering its prospects is no longer likely, the report said. In fact, banks are offering more modifications through their own process than through the government’s.  The new report cited several reasons for the program’s failure. For one, servicers, the companies hired by banks to manage the loans, earn extra profits through fees imposed during foreclosure. Because of that, servicers were preventing or delaying modifications.  Another big obstacle was that many loans in trouble often came burdened with second mortgages — home equity loans or lines of credit — that had to sign off on potential deals.  Because so many homes are worth less than the borrowers owe, there is little money to cover the first loan, let alone a second mortgage. So many banks in the second position refused to sign off unless they were paid something.  The oversight panel also faulted Treasury for not having effective means of collecting and analyzing HAMP data. The department, said the panel, did not even set meaningful goals against which to weigh the program’s effectiveness.  Because participation has been so limited, HAMP will probably only spend about $4 billion of the $30 billion allocated for it.  even the loans that have been permanently modified through HAMP have not performed well. Many have already re-defaulted, and that means taxpayer money down the drain.

 Retail sales up

The Commerce Department said total retail sales rose 0.8% last month, fueled in part by deep discounting on holiday merchandise.  Economists surveyed by Briefing.com on average had forecast an increase of 0.5% for November, compared to a revised 1.7% jump in sales the prior month. October sales were originally reported to have increased 1.2%.  Sales excluding autos and auto parts rose 1.2%, compared to a revised 0.8% gain in ex-auto sales in October. Ex-auto sales were originally reported to have increased 0.4%.  Economists had forecast a rise of 0.6% in the measure for November, according to Briefing.com.  The government report showed sales at clothing stores rose 2.7%, were up 2.3% at sporting goods and hobby stores, increased 2.8% at department stores and climbed 1.3% at general merchandise sellers. Online sales rose 2.1%.  Higher gasoline prices fueled gas station sales to a 4% increase in November.  But there were a few weak pockets as well in last month’s report. Electronics sales dipped 0.6%, a figure also reflected when Best Buy, the No. 1 electronics seller, reported a miss on its sales and profit last quarter earlier Tuesday.  Furniture purchases slipped 0.5%.

 BOA finds new way to profit

 Bank of America (BOA) and hedge fund firm Fortress Investment Group have found a new way to profit from foreclosures – by collecting the tax debts of people who can’t afford to pay their property taxes.  Then they package the debts as securities and sell them to investors.  The investigative journal for the Center for Public Integrity noted that BOA’s securities division bundled $301 million worth of owed taxes which Fortress then converted into bonds to pitch to private investors.  Tax debt buyers can assess interest charges and a host of other fees and expect an estimated return of seven to ten percent from the deals.  If the debt still isn’t paid after a certain period of time, buyers can seize the properties through foreclosure.  Public records won’t show who purchased these securities, at what prices they were traded, or the anticipated returns they bring it, because the bonds were sold in private.  A BOA spokesman, William Halldin, denied that the bank and Fortress had acted together in bidding in the auctions.  Halldin said, “Our bids were made independently of any other organization.  Any suggestion that they weren’t independent is simply incorrect.” 

 The journal further claims that financial institutions, including several beneficiaries of federal bailout funds, are energetically finding new money-making avenues from the hot foreclosure market.  They stand-in as tax collectors and as an extension of that role, help local governments to significantly improve their budgets by also finding new owners for abandoned properties.  For example, in Florida, Miami-Dade County, raked in more than $274 million in June last year from the sale of approximately 60,000 property tax liens.  The property tax lien market, estimated at $5 billion and growing, has not come under much scrutiny or legislation.  There is no industry watchdog and regulations have simply not been able to keep up with the fast pace of foreclosures.  Buyers of property tax debts typically hop from state to state to take part in quick online auctions without having to reveal their association with Wall Street, and without registering their operation.  It seems like government officials are not only used to selling property tax debts to these virtually unknown limited liability companies but that their only interest is the large cachet of money the business reaps in.  The only thing required by the government is a tax identification number.

 Frugality?  Not so much

 Private sector debt fell by $165 billion in the third quarter. That is just a quarter of the rate of decline a year ago, Capital Economics notes. But what’s more, government debt issuance more than canceled out that drop, expanding by $380 billion during the period ended in September.  That gap, if you can bear it, stands to get even bigger in coming quarters should Congress approve the deficit-expanding tax deal reached this month by the White House and congressional Republicans.  That shift is not exactly reassuring the many fiscal hawks who warn that U.S. profligacy will not end well. They say the wider the budget gap, the bigger the mountain of debt sitting atop U.S. assets. Both of those trends, they claim, will push the dollar toward collapse in an inflationary crisis reminiscent of a banana republic.  If the ever-growing U.S. budget deficit is exhibit one in this lecture, exhibit two is the staggering level of debt piled up on all levels of society, as measured by the ratio of nonfinancial debt to economic output. Though there has been some talk of Americans getting their financial houses in order, there is not a lot of evidence of it to look at this number (see chart, right).  While financial firms have indeed cut their debt by 16% or so since the financial crisis broke out two years ago, nonfinancial debt – that carried by consumers, government and nonfinancial businesses — remains just 2 percentage points below its bubble-era peak, at 243% of GDP.  The unexpected rise in consumer spending is part of the reason economists at the likes of Goldman Sachs and UBS have been raising their U.S. growth forecasts lately.  “This is a pretty important shift,” Goldman economist Jan Hatzius said this month. “This is why are we turning more upbeat on U.S. growth after being downbeat for the past five years.”

 WSJ – it’s taking longer to foreclose

 Two years ago, the state began requiring that banks and borrowers attend settlement conferences before a foreclosure takes place.  While the conferences are popular with borrowers and have succeeded in helping some families keep their homes, banks have been reluctant to participate. That, and recent revelations that some lenders have improperly submitted foreclosure documents, has prompted judges to take a harsher stance with lenders.  The foreclosure process typically begins after a borrower misses three consecutive monthly payments and ends once the lender repossesses the home or the borrower brings the loan current. Nationwide, there were 2.1 million mortgages in some stage of foreclosure as of October, according to research firm LPS Applied Analytics. 

 The average loan in foreclosure had been in default for 492 days as of October, up from 289 days at the end of 2005, according to LPS.  In New York and New Jersey—another state with consumer friendly laws—the waits are longer. The average loan in foreclosure had been in default for 604 days in New York and 544 days in New Jersey as of October.  “We try and help as many people as we can,” says New York Supreme Court Judge Michael Ajello. “We set up a conference and I try and persuade and cajole the banks to reduce the payments,” he says. But the banks, he adds, “are not very cooperative.”  The Mortgage Bankers Association, which represents some of the nation’s biggest banks, said that banks aren’t trying to be uncooperative but in many cases loan modifications won’t help borrowers because they are unable to meet payments regardless.  At Staten Island’s Richmond County Supreme Court, which has one of the biggest foreclosure caseloads in the city, tensions between borrowers, lenders and judges are rising every week.  The court now hosts settlement conferences four days a week—double that of last year—with about 40 borrowers scheduled to appear each day.

 Two more banks prepare to pay back TARP

 Two regional U.S. banks plan to repay their government bailout loans, a sign of health that could put pressure on other lenders to shed government aid.  Huntington Bancshares said it was issuing stock and bonds to help repay $1.4 billion it received under the U.S. Government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program in November 2008.   First Horizon National Corp said it is selling debt and equity to pay off $867 million of TARP aid.  Huntington’s shares fell after the news because the bank will sell so much equity to repay the government, analysts said. First Horizon’s shares rose as investors cheered its move to shed government support.  Analysts said these repayment plans could be the first of another wave of TARP repayments, and suggest that the U.S. banking system is continuing to heal after the 2008 crisis.  Banks that have yet to repay the government should think about doing it soon, said Jeff Davis, bank analyst at boutique bank Guggenheim Partners.  “If you’re a bank that does wait now, the market might be left to assume there are deeper problems,” Davis said.  The offerings from Huntington and First Horizon come one year after the largest U.S. banks — including Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp., and Wells Fargo & Co., raised tens of billions of dollars to repay their government bailout aid.  The first wave of banks to repay TARP came in the summer of 2009, and included Goldman Sachs Group Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

 CNBC’s Olick – negative equity

 ”Just because you owe more on your mortgage than your home is worth doesn’t necessarily mean that you are no longer able to afford your mortgage. For many Americans who bought their homes during the housing boom, little has changed for them financially other than what the appraiser has determined on paper.  What has changed are attitudes, and attitudes can be dangerous.  22.5 percent of U.S. borrowers were in a negative equity position on their homes at the end of Q3, according to a new report from CoreLogic.  The authors of the study warn that deteriorating home prices now will likely push the percentage back up in Q4.  The definition of home ownership, at least according to the Census, includes homeowners in a negative equity position. ‘However, homeowners in negative equity are not likely to behave similarly to homeowners with equity, because their financial interest (the equity) has disappeared and has only a small prospect of returning soon, given price trends,’ note CoreLogic authors.

 Underwater borrowers are more likely to behave like renters, which means they’re not going to invest much in home improvement. They are also more likely to walk away from their commitment, although not in the waves some had predicted.  The Obama Administration has been pushing lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to write down principal on underwater mortgages in order to put borrowers back into a positive equity position.” Interestingly, the latest push is for borrowers who are current on their mortgages. They lenders argue, why should they give money voluntarily if the loans are still performing? They don’t even do that very often when the loans are in trouble!  The answer is: attitudes.  The Administration is clearly concerned that more borrowers will either walk away from their commitments or stop spending money on their homes, which are usually their single largest investment.  But is the Administration’s answer—to give borrowers back a few percentage points of equity on paper—really going to fix that and change owner attitudes? No, especially since so many Americans got used to taking money OUT of their homes to pay for all those lovely upgrades.  The change has to come in real home price appreciation.  That is the only thing that is going to give homeowners that much-needed faith in the market, that confidence to stay where they are and spend, not some measly equity handout that won’t amount to much and may just prompt the borrowers to put their house on the already glutted market. 

 And how do you get home price appreciation?  Get rid of that glut of inventory—especially the foreclosures. I’m back on my investor high horse again. Stop offering handouts to underwater borrowers who don’t need them to pay their mortgages and start focusing that same money on eating up empty houses and restoring real home price appreciation through a competitive marketplace. If you help well-vetted, responsible investors buy up the properties and rent them to all the families that lost their homes, you will do a lot more good.

 Now for our real estate education section…

 Blind-Sided by Insufficient Short Sales Advertising?

Have you been blindsided by insufficient short sales marketing strategies? According to several different research studies the answer is probably in the affirmative. Take for instance a new survey conducted by Adweek Media in conjunction with the Harris poll; despite substantial increases in innovation and creativity among internet advertisers, consumers are still “blind” to many advertisements. In another recent study, researchers found that consumers are increasingly blind to advertisements that are too familiar….and (much to their shock) advertisements that represent too much “change”.

Confused yet? No need. Here at the Short Sales blog we take pride in providing clear cut solutions to all your short sales needs including effective marketing strategies. There are three main points that should form the basis of all marketing strategies for the short sale investor and real estate professional:

1. Learn what to do – and what not to do – to attract attention online. Innovation and creativity is important but be sure to spend wisely. For example, banner ads – once considered the mainstream of internet advertising – are woefully out of date…in fact, they ranked near the bottom in terms of impact upon consumers/viewers. On the other hand, social media marketing was found to be highly effective despite relatively mundane formats.

2. Don’t go with the status quo. There are certain times and situations when prospective clients actually desire the status quo; for example, when selecting a reputable baby-sitter or perhaps searching for a funeral director….but most of the time the status quo simply comes across as boring. For real estate, it could be considered one of the deadly sins. Lack of ingenuity, innovation and ambition are NOT going to impress prospective clients. Not sure where you stand? Ask a few friends to take a quick look at your business cards, website, blog, Facebook page and other marketing materials then check back 24-48 hours later to see what they remember most. If they can’t recall anything, you are in dire need of an update. If they can recall 3-5 items then you are probably running with the majority of the pack but certainly not in a leadership position. If they recall more than a half dozen items give yourself a big pat on the back…at the very least you are memorable.

3. Don’t go overboard. After reading item number two above it might seem like a good idea to do anything to get noticed…and depending on where you landed in the dull category, even negative publicity might be an improvement. However, it’s never a good idea to make a habit out of negative publicity. Research indicates that people or concepts too far outside of someone’s norm also tend to be overlooked by clients. By definition, real estate is considered a complex transaction by the majority of people: It routinely involves legal concepts, financial constructs, psychology and much more. On one hand, you want to provide valuable information but in a user-friendly and engaging way. If you work with first-time homebuyers be sure to cover the basics while simultaneously meeting the advanced information needs of investors or others. At the same time, it is important to become memorable without making people uncomfortable. Finding the right balance isn’t simple but sooner or later, those that manage to carve out a niche will have a better chance of retaining clients in the long run. A great logo, appealing incentive program, slightly off-beat appearance or nearly any form of recognition is good…just keep it within a comfort zone that is accessible to the majority of people.

4. Add interaction. A final report by Unicast indicates that consumers are more likely than ever to share and respond to social marketing sites such as Facebook and Twitter. Video abandonment remains problematic but is beginning to show signs of improvement as users (and content providers) grow more technologically savvy.

See you at the top!

 Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2010.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com
http://www.shortsalescoach.com
http://www.sixfigurebpo.com
http://www.reomillionaireclub.com
http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com (subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************
About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

{ 0 comments }

Holiday foreclosure freeze

by admin on December 6, 2010

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 5, 2010

Forward this e-mail to your friends! 

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link: 

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/ 

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–> http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–> http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

Holiday foreclosure freeze

Like last year, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the two government-controlled mortgage giants, are freezing all foreclosure evictions on mortgage loans they own or back from Dec. 20 through Jan.3.  For some of the big private banks, who also usually observe a freeze during the holidays, the situation is a little different this year, thanks to moratoriums they already have in place because of the robo-signing scandal.  That freeze was initiated to give the banks time to examine whether they violated any legal procedures in processing foreclosures and to correct and refile questionable documents they uncover.  A spokesman for Bank of America, Rick Simon, said that made addressing this year’s situation a little awkward but it would still observe its usual holiday policy. 

“Bank of America’s practice in recent years [is to hold off on] foreclosure sales or evictions from late December through New Year’s Day on loans held in our investment portfolio or that are owned by investors who give the bank delegated authority,” he said.  A spokesman for Chase Mortgage, a division of J.P. Morgan Chase, said its robo-signing-connected moratorium makes an additional holiday freeze moot; it will still be several weeks before it starts to evict borrowers again.  Wells Fargo’s holiday freeze will run the same two week period as Fannie’s and Freddie’s and will, like Bank of America’s, include all loans it holds in its portfolio. For the other loans it services, it will follow guidelines from investors and from the states where the properties are located.  With the number of bank repossessions amounting to around 100,000 a month recently, the temporary reprieve could affect tens of thousands of borrowers in default.

Bernanke – 4 or 5 years to recovery

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a “60 Minutes” interview yesterday, “At the rate we’re going, it could be four, five years before we are back to a more normal unemployment rate.”  Bernanke says long-term inflation fears are “way overstated,” and the Fed is not just “printing money.” Plus, while critics are pointing out QE2′s risks left and right, they are not weighing the risks of “not acting,” Bernanke said.  Responding to a question about the possibility of additional quantitative easing, Bernanke said: “Oh, it’s certainly possible. And again, it depends on the efficacy of the program. It depends on inflation. And finally it depends on how the economy looks.” He added that it “doesn’t seem likely” that there will be a double-dip recession. 

Bernanke also said he’s “100%” confident in the Fed’s ability to control long-term inflation. “We could raise interest rates in 15 minutes if we have to,” he said. “That time is not now.”  “We don’t want to take actions this year that will affect this year’s spending and this year’s taxes in a way that will hurt the recovery. That’s important,” Bernanke said. “But that doesn’t stop us from thinking now about the long-term structural budget deficit.”  He also called the tax code “inefficient.”  “By closing loopholes and lowering rates, you could increase the efficiency of the tax code and create more incentives for people to invest,” he said.

Olick – investors are not the bad guys

“They have surpassed lawyers and repo-men as the most vilified professionals on the planet.  Thanks to the unprecedented real estate crash, ‘investors’ are now the bad guys. During the housing boom, they canoodled with lenders to lever themselves to the hilt, and consequently fueled home prices to levels so unsustainable that the market came crashing down.  Never does the President, the Treasury secretary, or the HUD secretary announce a new element to the Administration’s multi-billion dollar housing bailout, without making clear that investors need not apply.  Get over it. That’s all I, and plenty of qualified real estate investors, have to say. That was then; this is now, and real estate investors may be our only ticket out of the housing crisis.  ‘If you want to stabilize the housing market, you have to encourage investors,’ says hedge fund manager Aaron Edelheit. ‘The quicker you can end the foreclosures and the short sales, the quicker you’re going to have a turnaround in the economy and the housing market.’  Edelheit has invested over $10 million in foreclosed homes. He’s not looking to flip them for a profit; he’s in this for the long-term gain. He doesn’t buy up bulk condos, as many institutional investors are now doing, and which he admits is much easier. He buys single family homes with the sole intention of renting them out to families. No, he’s not a do-gooder. He’s making around an 8 percent profit after expenses.  Think of it this way. At the height of the housing boom, the home ownership rate was at 69 percent. It’s now down to 66.9 percent and dropping. Historically it’s around 62-64 percent.  ‘You have five to seven percent of the nation who needs a place to live, and they would prefer single family homes,’ notes Edelheit.

 Today’s jobs report proves that this is going to be a slow economic recovery, which means the pool of potential home buyers will remain small for quite some time. We have already seen apartment rents rise on higher demand. This in the face of a serious oversupply of homes for sale and a shadow inventory of, by some estimates, up to 7 million foreclosed properties.  ‘There aren’t the natural buyers to buy these excess homes, but there are the families to live in them, so if you had long term capital to incentivize investors like me, we would go in, buy homes, fix them up and rent them to families,’ says Edelheit.  But there’s the problem.  Gun-shy banks and government-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are being very stingy with credit to investors, capping them at very few loans. Fannie Mae allows ten loans to each individual investor, but investors tell me it’s more like four when you talk to the banks. A Fannie Mae spokesperson adds, ‘Lenders may have their own overlays or added fees.’  They’ve thrown the baby out with the bathwater. I’m not suggesting we return to the heady days of lending to any Joe with a pen to sign on the dotted line. I am suggesting we stop demonizing investors and instead offer low-cost credit to those with worthy balance sheets who are willing to put significant down payments on the properties. And yes, underwrite them conscientiously. It may be our best exit from a too-slow recovery.  Investors like Edelheit are waiting in the wings. ‘I think that if the government were to encourage investors, they would swoop in and buy homes, and you’d very quickly not have an excess amount of housing.’”

Bank of America met conditions of TARP

Bank of America (BofA) has told US regulators that it has sold enough assets this year to meet the final condition that was set on its landmark plan to repay $45 billion in government bail-out funding.  BofA was given until the end of this year to record the gains. US regulators believe the move will help build the bank’s equity as it regains its footing after leaving the government’s troubled asset relief program (Tarp).  If BofA fails to satisfy the Federal Reserve Board, the lender will have to issue additional common shares, diluting its per-share earnings.  People familiar with the bank said it had told the Fed that recent moves to pare back its stake in BlackRock and sell its right to buy shares in China Construction Bank’s fundraising would bring them close to the $3 billion requirement.  The remainder, people said, would come as the bank records a tax gain from holding a smaller slice of BlackRock, the money manager.  BofA’s repayment of Tarp funds in December 2009 was hailed as a victory for the US Treasury, as taxpayers earned a profit on the bail-out, and for the bank.  According to Treasury officials, 122 Tarp recipients – including the country’s biggest banks – have now repaid all, or a portion, of their government aid. Fed officials have not yet responded to BofA’s moves.

GSE Reform to take years

While reform of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSE) could gain clarity in 2011, any action from Congress will likely take years and would require significant structural changes to return the companies to private status, according to JPMorgan analysts.  So far, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have drawn $148 billion from the Treasury Department. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which has held the companies in conservatorship since 2008, projected both could end up drawing between $221 billion in a best-case scenario through 2013. The JPMorgan Chase analysts see it at $225 billion.  At a 10% dividend, JPMorgan analysts said, Fannie and Freddie will be paying $15 billion a year in dividend payments alone.  The analysts expect total guarantee losses at the two firms to reach roughly $180 billion with most of it being realized through 2015. Add Ginnie Mae to the mix, and losses from GSE-related guarantees could approach $300 billion.  “This massive capital borrowing at a 10% cost of capital (dividend to Treasury) practically ensures that the GSEs won’t exit conservatorship on their own,” according to the report.  One solution the analysts lay out is to divide the two companies into a “good” bank and a “bad” bank with the former guaranteeing reasonable loans for qualifying borrowers unencumbered from the “bad” one, similar to how regulators tried to structure Lehman Brothers as it spiraled toward bankruptcy.  Regardless of the outcome, analysts reiterated the importance of the GSEs’ role in the housing sector. Over 95% of mortgage originations are currently guaranteed by the U.S. government, compared to 35% in 2006.  “In the end, we expect that the public discussion around the future of the GSEs will take years to be fully resolved,” according to the report.

Now for our real estate education section…

The Strangest Secret & Short Sales Success

In 1956 a young radio broadcaster by the name of Earl Nightingale wrote and recorded a message which became known as “The Strangest Secret”. It quickly went on to sell millions of copies without advertising and limited marketing. Today, more than 50 years later, Nightingales secret remains a top seller in the personal development market and has earned the distinction of becoming the largest selling non-entertainment recording in the industry. 

Obviously Nightingale’s secret was more than mere hype; it has withstood the test of time and become the foundation of an entire information empire due to a few simple to apply strategies that work in nearly any field or endeavor….including short sales and real estate investing.

The Problem

The basis of Nightingale’s work came about through a simple observation: Most people fail despite an early belief in their own success. If you take 100 people who start out with a strong belief in their own success at the age of 25, then follow them until the age of 65, the majority will be broke. One will be rich, four will be financially independent, five will still be working and the remaining 54 will be dependent upon others for the basic necessities of life.

The Goal

Nightingale set out to learn the secret behind the success of that one in every twenty persons; what made them different than the rest? Not only did he discover this secret but he learned how to systematically apply it in his own life and help others reach their own goals. It’s a lesson that is as easily implemented today as it was 50 years ago…perhaps even easier thanks to modern technology. Today we are going to outline the most essential steps.

The Lessons

1. The first lesson is to actually define what success means to you. According to Nightingale, success is the “progressive realization of a worthy ideal”. Notice the detailed yet flexible nature of this definition; not only is it highly individualized but it is also systematic and well defined. Take a few moments to reflect upon each word in order to allow the full understanding to reach your mind and comprehension.

2. Stop blaming circumstances – start doing. Much has been written in psychology texts and self-help books since The Secret was originally published but the concept remains the same; whether you call it an internal/external loci of control, conformity or something else entirely the message is clear…start acting upon what you want to become.  To put it another way, people reap what they sow. It requires doing and the first stage in doing anything is to have clearly delineated goals. You must know and understand where you are going and why in order to make progress. Nightingale advocated writing down goals, making them as specific as possible. Review it repeatedly each and every day.

3. You become what you think about. According to Nightingale his secret wasn’t much of a secret at all but rather an ancient idea that was clearly known and understood in ancient times. From biblical proverbs to roman emperors, the idea that a man’s life is what is thoughts make of it is a well known concept. Unfortunately today’s modern society makes it difficult to focus for ten minutes much less dedicate one’s life to deliberate thought. Distractions, entertainment, family and even fun events all compete for our attention at nearly every waking moment of the day. Still, research and history are both replete with examples of men and women that became a success or defied the odds simply by changing their way of thinking. Have you set aside time to consider the impact of your thought upon the productivity of your life…including goals for real estate and short sales? Do you do it daily? If not, it is time to take control and begin implementing a daily course of action that literally provides “food for thought”.

This was such a critical cornerstone that Nightingale established a prescribed routine of studying for one hour per day whenever embarking on a new endeavor. Thanks to the advent of the Internet, that one hour can now be productive time in what was otherwise non-productive time such as during a daily commute. It is also possible to increase the productivity by constant contact with professionals and mentors in the desired area even if you live hundreds or even thousands of miles away. Are you spending one hour per day working toward your goal? If not now then when?

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin
**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2010.

All Rights Reserved.

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About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

    * As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
      foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
      100 short sale & REO closings each month
   * Long-time authority on real estate investing
      and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
      portfolio of nearly 100 high-value, high-profit
     properties
    * Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
     running 4 different offices, supporting over
     400 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
     thousands of investors make money in the
     biggest market opportunity ever!
    * Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
      seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
      in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
      Wealth Building
    * Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
    * Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

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