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Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin January 25, 2012

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Foreclosures fell 12% in California, but…

The number of California homes entering foreclosure in the fourth quarter fell 11.9% from the same period in 2010 to the second-lowest level over the last four years, said DataQuick, a real estate information firm in San Diego. A total of 61,517 notices of default, which are filed to initiate foreclosures, were recorded on California properties during the fourth quarter. That was a 13.7% drop from the third quarter of 2011.  Some economists say California and other states will probably see an increase in foreclosure actions as banks deal more aggressively with seriously delinquent mortgages. That increase probably will push home prices lower.  Default notice filings fell sharply in December, particularly those involving loans from Bank of America and Bank of New York Mellon, and helped drag down the overall quarterly numbers. Average daily filings on behalf of Bank of New York Mellon dropped 75% from November to December; filings on behalf of Bank of America dropped 50%, Wells Fargo 20% and JPMorgan Chase 13%, DataQuick said Tuesday.  The number of homes taken back through the foreclosure process also fell, by 11.8% from a year earlier to 31,260.

The majority of the loans entering the foreclosure process in the fourth quarter were made in 2005 to 2007, when poor lending practices by major institutions were rampant.  Californian homeowners were a median nine months behind on their payments when they received a notice of default from their lender. Among the state’s largest counties, mortgages in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties were the least likely to go into foreclosure. Homes were most likely to enter the foreclosure process in Sacramento, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties, according to DataQuick.  In Southern California, the number of default notices filed on properties fell 10.2% from a year earlier, and the number of homes taken back by banks fell 11%.  Many foreclosures were delayed in 2011 as banks worked through issues surrounding mortgage servicing and foreclosure. Settlement negotiations among attorneys general, federal agencies and the mortgage industry over foreclosure and mortgage servicing abuses dragged on through most of last year.

Analysts attributed the delays to the uncertainty over the outcome of those talks. If a deal is struck among the parties and new foreclosure processes by banks are put in place, some analysts say the foreclosure machinery could ramp up again.  Those negotiations continue to inch forward but could still fall apart. State attorneys general have received drafts of the deal with the banks, a $25-billion settlement that would overhaul foreclosure and mortgage servicing practices, according to two people familiar with the negotiations who aren’t authorized to speak publicly.  A key component to any strong deal would be California’s participation. State Atty. Gen. Kamala D. Harris, who must make that decision for the Golden State, has not said whether she will sign on. Harris walked away from talks with the banks last year, saying they were asking for too much release from liability, but since then certain provisions have been added to the deal with the aim of getting her back to the table.  Yesterday the Center for Responsible Lending gave the proposed $25-billion deal a tentative thumbs up, calling it “an important step forward in addressing foreclosure abuses.” The nonpartisan advocacy group noted that the deal would “provide an important template for ways banks can use principal reduction to reduce unnecessary foreclosures and put the country back on a path to economic recovery.”

GOP says Obama economic plan is a failure

President Barack Obama has resorted to “extremism” with stifling, anti-growth policies and has tried dividing Americans, not uniting them, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said Tuesday in the formal Republican response to the president’s State of the Union address.  He took particular aim at Obama’s efforts in recent months to raise taxes on the rich and castigate them. “No feature of the Obama presidency has been sadder than its constant effort to divide us, to curry favor with some Americans by castigating others,” Daniels said, according to excerpts of his remarks released before he and Obama spoke. “As in previous moments of national danger, we Americans are all in the same boat.”  “The extremism that stifles the development of homegrown energy, or cancels a perfectly sane pipeline that would employ tens of thousands, or jacks up consumer utility bills for no improvement in either human health or world temperature, is a pro-poverty policy,” Daniels said.

Obama has halted work on the proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline from western Canada to Texas’ Gulf Coast. Republicans say the project would create thousands of jobs, a claim opponents say is overstated. The administration has also pursued policies aimed at reducing pollution and global warming.  Daniels said Republicans prefer “a passionate pro-growth approach that breaks all ties and calls all close ones in favor of private sector jobs that restore opportunity for all and generate the public revenues to pay our bills.”  Even before Obama spoke, Republicans in the Capitol and on the campaign trail accused him of three years of higher spending, bigger government and tax increases that have left the economy stuck in a ditch.  “This election is going to be a referendum on the president’s economic policies,” which have worsened the economy, said House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio. “The politics of envy, the politics of dividing our country is not what America is all about.”

Olick – more plans from the president

“After several largely ineffective programs to help troubled borrowers and after fruitless attempts at budging the hard-line conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, President Obama is proposing a brand new refinance program for borrowers who are current on their mortgages, regardless of who owns their loan; the catch is that this one has to go through Congress.  ‘I’m sending this Congress a plan that gives every responsible homeowner the chance to save about $3,000 a year on their mortgage, by refinancing at historically low interest rates. No more red tape. No more runaround from the banks,’ the President announced in his State of the Union address.  Unlike previous efforts in the refinance space, including a recently revamped and expanded government program for borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth, this plan would not be limited to those with loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to senior administration officials. The two mortgage giants own or guarantee about half of the nation’s mortgages. It would be open to all borrowers current on their loans.

The Obama administration is offering precious few details, promising more in the coming weeks, but several sources say the plan is to ask Congress to allow the government mortgage insurer, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), to back refinances of underwater mortgages. No estimates were given as to how many borrowers such a plan could potentially help, only that this would be a voluntary, borrower-initiated plan, and not a blanket refinance of all borrowers.  The costs, according to administration officials, would be modest, and the President would request that a portion of his financial crisis responsibility fee offset any of those costs, so there would be no addition to the federal debt.  ‘A small fee on the largest financial institutions will ensure that it won’t add to the deficit, and will give banks that were rescued by taxpayers a chance to repay a deficit of trust,’ Mr. Obama added.  Loan servicers could be faced with a flood of applications and could have to add resources to handle it all, but officials say the opportunity to generate revenues from the refinances would be incentive enough. Still many servicers have balked at the idea of mass refinancing, as the new loans could present more risk and less reward.

The idea is to remove the barriers and ‘frictions’ that have kept many borrowers out of refinancing to historically low rates. Some of those include high levels of negative equity, loan level price adjustments, loan origination dates, put-backs on loans that default, and borrower qualifications.  Then there is the very basic problem of politics. Whatever the details of the plan are, Republicans, despite the fact that they have been calling for more refinances, are unlikely to hand President Obama a popular victory on the eve of a presidential election. They may also oppose anything that makes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bigger, when the two are allegedly winding down.”

Americans lead in debt reduction

Americans are cutting their debt faster than other countries and could already be halfway through the deleveraging process, setting the stage for the nation’s economic recovery, says a new report from McKinsey Global Institute.  However, even when U.S. consumers finish deleveraging, they probably won’t be as powerful an engine of global growth as they were before the crisis, warns the report.  According to McKinsey analysts, deleveraging happens in two stages: First, the private sector reduces debt, while economic growth is negative or minimal and government debt rises; then, growth rebounds and supports gradual government deleveraging.  “Somewhat surprisingly, given the amount of concern over the U.S. economy, we find that the United States is furthest along in private-sector debt reduction and closest to beginning the second phase of deleveraging,” says the report.  “The remaining obstacles for its return to growth are its unsettled housing market and its failure to lay out a credible medium-term plan for public debt reduction,” concludes the report.

Since the financial crisis, U.S. household debt has fallen by $584 billion, or 15 percentage points relative to disposable income, which is more than in any other country.  At this pace, Americans could reach sustainable debt levels by the middle of 2013.  The report also found that since the 2008-2009 financial crisis the world’s ten largest developed economies have seen their total debt increase, primarily due to growing government debt.  The U.S., South Korea and Australia are the only countries that have seen a decline in the ratio of total debt to GDP during that time period.  Moreover, the United Kingdom and Spain are deleveraging at a much slower pace, and it could take another decade until their private-sector debt returns to the pre-bubble levels.  In the United States, most of the private-sector deleveraging has happened in the financial sector, where debt relative to GDP had declined to $6.1 trillion from $8 trillion, levels not seen since 2000.

MBA – mortgages down 5%

Mortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 20, 2012.  The results include an adjustment to account for the Martin Luther King holiday.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13.8 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index decreased 5.2 percent from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.7 percent compared with the previous week and was 6.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 4.12 percent.  The four week moving average is up 0.47 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 4.85 percent for the Refinance Index.  The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 81.3 percent of total applications from 82.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.3 percent from 5.6 percent of total applications from the previous week.  In December 2011, among refinance borrowers, 56.6 percent of applications were for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 24.3 percent for 15-year fixed loans, and 5.3 percent for ARMs.  The share of refinance applications for “other” fixed-rate mortgages with amortization schedules other than 15 and 30-year terms was 13.8 percent of all refinance applications. The share for 30-year fixed increased from the previous month while the 15-year fixed, ARM and the “other” fixed category shares decreased from last month.

Markets down on possible Obama re-election

So far, the presidential election has not impacted stocks, but that could change if Mitt Romney appears unlikely to make it as the GOP nominee.  For the past two days, Romney’s vulnerability to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has been the talk of trading rooms.  Gingrich beat Romney handily in the South Carolina primary Saturday, the second of three early contests that Romney lost. But the volatile Gingrich is not viewed as a strong candidate to beat President Obama.  “Obama’s gone from 50 percent probability to 55 percent on Intrade,” said Dan Clifton, Strategas head of policy research. “This week he just kind of exploded once Gingrich won in South Carolina. The Intrade market is saying there’s a much greater chance of President Obama being re-elected.”  Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, is by far the preferred candidate on Wall Street, where many disagree with Obama’s policies and have been stung by what they call “class warfare.”  “I don’t think it’s fully reflected in the market yet. The market is drifting. There’s a mild degree of anxiety, and that’s really because it’s overbought. Is there a gentle longing for a smoke-filled room? Yeah. There’s some yearning for that,” said Art Cashin, UBS director of floor operations.  The S&P 500 broke its five-day winning streak Tuesday, finishing 1 point lower at 1314, but it is up 4.5 percent since the start of the year.  Analysts believe if Romney loses the Florida primary next Tuesday, he will have a hard time stopping Gingrich’s momentum.

Huffington post – Romney on mortgages

Finally, a presidential candidate came out and honestly addressed the biggest problem in our economy, the enormous debt overhang in our mortgage market. A few days ago, Mitt Romney was at a forum in Florida talking about foreclosures, and his comments were actually refreshingly honest about our housing and banking situation and the need for a debt write-down.  We’re just so overleveraged, so much debt in our society, and some of the institutions that hold it aren’t willing to write it off and say they made a mistake, they loaned too much, we’re overextended, write those down and start over. They keep on trying to harangue and pretend what they have on their books is still what it’s worth.  Mitt Romney was pointing out that the banks are carrying debt on their books at inflated values. When was the last serious politician to make that point, openly? There’s more.  In some cases, if the debt is not in something you can service, it’s like you have to move on and start over away from those debts. It’s helpful if you get an institution that’s willing to work with you, but if you don’t you have no other option.

Romney is now saying that if you can’t pay your debts and your lending institution won’t work with you, walk away. Perhaps this isn’t so surprising, though, as Romney is an expert in debt restructuring. This is actually just common business sense.  And finally, he offered a real solution to the mortgage debt crisis.  “The banks are scared to death, of course, because they think they’re going to go out of business… They’re afraid that if they write all these loans off, they’re going to go broke. And so they’re feeling the same thing you’re feeling. They just want to pretend all of this is going to get paid someday so they don’t have to write it off and potentially go out of business themselves.  This is cascading throughout our system and in some respects government is trying to just hold things in place, hoping things get better… My own view is you recognize the distress, you take the loss and let people reset. Let people start over again, let the banks start over again. Those that are prudent will be able to restart, those that aren’t will go out of business. This effort to try and exact the burden of their mistakes on homeowners and commercial property owners, I think, is a mistake.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin January 24, 2012

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

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2012 to be the best year for short sales?

The Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Act of 2007 allows an income tax exemption for a homeowner whose mortgage debt is partly or entirely forgiven by a bank.  It’s set to expire Dec. 31, 2012.  Matt Alegi, a partner with the Potomac law firm Shulman Rogers and chair of the firm’s residential real estate practice group, says the tax break has meant a savings in the tens of thousands of dollars for individuals.  Typically, if someone were to have $150,000 forgiven by the bank, Alegi says, “you just made another $150,000 of income for tax purposes in that year.”  So, say someone makes $50,000 but had $150,000 forgiven by the bank. That person is now paying taxes on a $200,000 income, and included in a much higher tax bracket.  The loss of the relief will plunge homeowners further into debt, Alegi says.

He also thinks the expiration of the Debt Forgiveness Act will have an impact on short sales themselves. Homeowners could try to push the short sale through this year to take advantage of the tax break.  Alegi believes there will be strong lobbying to extend the tax break. If it isn’t extended, the appeal of a short sale could greatly diminish for the homeowner.  To take advantage of the Debt Relief Act, you need to fall under very specific guidelines outlined by the IRS.  For example, the debt forgiven is only for primary residences and the debt must have been used to buy, build or substantially improve your principal residence and be secured by that residence.  Alegi says homeowners who spent the forgiven money on education or other bills do not qualify.

Gridlock an Obama strategy?

When President Obama outlines his goals for 2012 during Tuesday’s State of the Union address, he shouldn’t expect a lot of cooperation from Republicans, senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said yesterday.  “With the Obama economy established now…unemployment is still at 8 ½%,” McConnell said. “It didn’t work, and we’re not interested in doing more of the things that don’t work.”  He said Obama was “AWOL” last year on his bus tour when Republicans wanted to tackle tax reform and entitlements, and he expects more of the same this year.   “He was not involved whatsoever,” McConnell said. “So I’m not optimistic, frankly, that in an election year that he’s likely to be any more engaged than he was last year.”  What’s more, he thinks the logjam in the nation’s capital is part of Obama’s agenda.  “That’s his strategy…to demonize Congress, to complain because he can’t continue to get everything he wants, like he did the first two years,” he said. “It’s all about his re-election and not about the country.”  One thing that McConnell thinks will get done is the payroll tax cut extension, which was extended for only two months in December when Congress couldn’t come to an agreement.  “We’ll be back at trying to figure out how to do that for the balance of the year and how to pay for it,” he said. “We don’t want to add to the deficit.”

What the $25 billion bank deal means

According to an Associated Press report, five major banks — Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citibank and Ally Financial — and US state attorneys general could adopt the agreement within weeks. It’s expected President Barack Obama will mention new developments in the negotiations in his State of the Union address today.  A settlement between the banks and the states doesn’t mean homeowners who lost their homes to foreclosure will get them back. In fact, they’re unlikely to benefit much at all financially, though the total financial settlement could be as high as $25 billion.  What’s worse is the settlement does not apply to loans held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Since Fannie and Freddie own about half of all US mortgages – or 31 million US home loans – that means a lot of homeowners who have been hurt by the banks’ deceptive foreclosure practices won’t be getting much-needed assistance.  Nearly 11 million people – one in four homeowners – owe more than their home is worth. According to current guidelines, these underwater homeowners have few options and little chance at refinancing.  Here’s how the settlement could shape up:

-  $17 billion would go toward reducing the principal balance struggling homeowners owe on their mortgages.

-  $5 billion would be put into a reserve account for various state and federal programs. A portion of this money would cover the $1,800 checks that would be sent to homeowners affected by deceptive practices. Only about 750,000 Americans, or half of the households who might be eligible for assistance under the deal, will likely receive checks.

-  About $3 billion would be used to help homeowners refinance at 5.25%, far below current mortgage interest rates.

If the proposed settlement terms are accepted, roughly 1 million of these homeowners could see the principal amount of their mortgages reduced by an average of $20,000. That’s good news for some, but bad news for the other 10 million homeowners who would like to claim a principal reduction but won’t qualify.  The better news is this settlement has the potential to reshape long-standing lending guidelines and make things easier for at-risk and underwater homeowners across the board. But critics say it doesn’t do enough. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) tells the Associated Press: “Wall Street is again trying to pass the buck. Instead of criminal prosecutions, we’re talking about something that’s not more than a slap on the wrist.”  Some states have disagreed over what to offer banks, with states like New York, Delaware, Nevada and Massachusetts arguing banks should not be “protected from future civil liability.” The deal will not fully release banks from future criminal lawsuits by individual states, and a few of those states’ attorneys general have already promised to pursue their own investigations.  Bank officials have argued few, if any, foreclosures wrongfully took place as a result of documentation issues. Ally Financial CEO Michael Carpenter has been among the most vocal, claiming the company found no instances of wrongful foreclosure after its own internal audit. Carpenter has said he will fight the government in court if need be.

US Treasurys edge higher after Greek setback

US Treasurys edged higher today, after euro zone finance ministers rejected an offer by private creditors to restructure Greek debt, keeping alive fears of a default.  Benchmark 10-year note’s yield was at 2.06%, compared with 2.058% in late US trade on Monday. The yield rose as high as 2.094% on Friday, its highest since early December. The 30-year bond yield was at 3.14%.  Demand for safe-haven US debt was further boosted after a report rekindled fears that Portugal, seen as the second most risky country in the euro zone, could be the next potential default candidate after Greece.  Further dousing optimism, Germany denied a report that it was ready to boost the combined firepower of the euro zone’s rescue funds to 750 billion euros ($979 billion).  During its two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday the Federal Reserve is expected to push out expectations on when it will next raise interest rates until at least 2014, and the meeting will also be closely watched for any hints of new QE, which analysts expect would focus on mortgage-backed bonds.  The Treasury Department will sell four-week bills and two-year notes later in the day. The Treasury will sell a total of $99 billion in new two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes this week.

Mortgage writedowns to cost taxpayers $100 billion

Forgiving mortgage debt on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans would cost the taxpayer-funded companies almost $100 billion, their regulator said.   The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said that as of June 30, the companies guaranteed nearly 3 million mortgages on single- family homes that are underwater, or worth less than the loans they secure.  “FHFA estimates that principal forgiveness for all of these mortgages would require funding of almost $100 billion,” FHFA Acting Director Edward J. DeMarco said in a Jan. 20 letter to Representative Elijah Cummings, a Maryland Democrat who had threatened to subpoena the information. The FHFA posted the letter on its website today.  Nearly 80% of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowers with negative equity were current on their payments, DeMarco said.

DeMarco, whose agency was created by Congress to minimize losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and is independent of President Barack Obama’s administration, has maintained that principal forgiveness would increase the size of the government’s bailout of the companies, which have cost taxpayers more than $153 billion since they were taken under government control in 2008.  The agency compared the cost of principal forgiveness to the companies’ current practice of forbearance, which allows delinquent borrowers to defer payments.  “Given that any money spent on this endeavor would ultimately come from taxpayers and given that our analysis does not indicate a preservation of assets for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FMCC) substantial enough to offset costs, an expenditure of this nature at this time would, in my judgment, require congressional action,” he said.

WSJ – EU tries to revive Greek talks

European Union finance ministers today piled pressure on Greece and its private-sector creditors to do more to ensure that a proposed deal to restructure Greece’s private-sector debt will be enough to put the country back on a firm fiscal footing.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the euro zone’s four triple-A-rated countries-—Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Luxembourg—are pushing for a low average interest rate on new bonds to be issued as part of the restructuring, in order to ensure the government can pay its debts in the future.  But as they were heading to a meeting Tuesday, EU finance ministers also urged Greece to implement tough austerity and structural reforms and provide more written assurances to its partners that it would commit to its pledges before further aid can be released.  Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter said she’s “not pleased” with progress so far. “We’re sending a very direct message to Greece that the community expects more, also in terms of structural reform,” she told reporters. “We’re not pleased and only when there’s a written message on the table in front of us, can further assistance be discussed.”

Greece’s debt restructuring is planned to take the form of a bond exchange in which creditors holding some €200 billion ($260.32 billion) in debt would swap their securities for new instruments with half the face value. The key sticking point is how much interest the new bonds should pay.  The restructuring is part and parcel of the second bailout program for Greece amounting to €130 billion. Without this loan, Greece will default on a €14.4 billion bond maturing March 20.  But talks in Athens with the Institute of International Finance, which represents the majority of Greece’s private-sector creditors, have dragged on for three weeks and stalled over the weekend. Private-sector creditors said in a final offer that they won’t accept an average interest rate of less than 4%.  The IMF voiced concerns yesterday that the deal being discussed by Greece and the creditors would leave the country with a higher-than-expected debt burden in the years ahead, people familiar with the matter said.  That sets up a difficult choice: press bondholders to accept more losses, or accept that Greece’s peers and the IMF will have to kick in more support.

Olick – foreclosure investors a double edged sword

“The best and most expeditious way to clear the vast inventory of foreclosed properties weighing down today’s housing market is to get more investors in and sell them these properties at bulk discounts.  That’s what the Obama administration and Federal regulators are currently considering for the thousands of homes currently owned by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA.  While big private equity funds are still largely in a very tedious deal-making stage with banks or waiting on the sidelines for a government program, smaller individual investors are getting in. Nearly 23% of home purchases in December were by investors, according to a new survey from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance. That is a slight increase from November, but the share has remained largely unchanged for the past year.  What has changed dramatically is how many of these investors are using all-cash…74% according to the survey, which also found that, ‘cash buyers are able to bid significantly lower—and successfully—on many properties because they offer a shorter and more reliable closing timeline.’ That is precisely what mortgage servicers want.

‘While investor bids may not be the first offers accepted, they often end up winning properties after other homebuyers are eliminated because of mortgage approval or timeline problems,’ according to the survey authors. ‘Appraisals below the contracted price are a common reason for mortgage denials. Most mortgage financing timelines are now in excess of 30 days.’  There has been a lot of concern among industry analysts that bulk foreclosure sales would push home prices down further, but it appears that is already happening, as investors usually offer 10-20% below list price, while first time home buyers and current homeowners are generally offering list. If the offers are competitive, cash will prevail.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 19, 2011

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

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************************************************************

Program roadblocks hold back recovery

Three years after the foreclosure crisis began, the process to apply for a loan modification remains a bureaucratic nightmare that is complicating the housing recovery and could dull the impact of any Obama administration initiatives in the works.  The administration’s biggest foreclosure-prevention effort, the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), targeted to help 3 million to 4 million homeowners, has reached only about a quarter of that since its 2009 inception.  The program pushed mortgage servicers to cut interest, extend terms, or defer parts of a loan in an effort to reduce monthly payments and keep borrowers in their homes.  But servicers have dragged their feet on providing wide-scale modifications. They continue to lose documents, use inaccurate numbers to issue denials, or both approve and deny applications at the same time, according to housing advocates.  “It delays resolution of the problem of defaulting loans and it is adding uncertainty to the market,” said Susan Wachter, a housing expert at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.  Around one in every 12 mortgages in the country is delinquent, and only a fraction of them have received modifications.

GOP wants new payroll tax cut bill

Top House Republicans rebelled Sunday against a bipartisan, Senate-approved bill extending payroll tax cuts and jobless benefits for two months, reigniting a politically fueled holiday-season clash that had seemed all but doused.  The House GOP defiance cast uncertainty over how quickly Congress would forestall a tax increase otherwise heading straight at 160 million workers beginning New Year’s Day. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said it could be finished within two weeks, which suggested that lawmakers might have to spend much of their usual holiday break battling each other in the Capitol.  A spokeswoman for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., said the House would vote Monday to either request formal bargaining with the Senate or to make the legislation “responsible and in line with the needs of hard-working taxpayers and middle-class families.”  Cantor spokeswoman Laena Fallon did not specify what those changes might be, beyond a longer-lasting bill. Boehner, though, expressed support for “reasonable reductions in spending” in a House-approved payroll tax bill and for provisions that blocked Obama administration anti-pollution rules.

Lennar picks up 650 home sites

Homebuilder Lennar Corp. acquired 650 finished home sites in 20 communities located in the Pacific Northwest.  The company purchased the sites from Seattle-based Premier Communities for an undisclosed amount. The transaction is part of a plan to build the firm’s operations in the Pacific Northwest and includes properties in Portland, Ore., and Seattle. Home values in the communities where the properties are located range from $150,000 to $460,000.  The move into the Pacific Northwest is Lennar’s first new market expansion since the builder entered Atlanta in 2010. Lennar now constructs new homes in 18 states and 44 different markets, and expects the expansion to result in 200 new home deliveries by the second half of 2012.  Lennar’s growth comes at a time when some analysts are calling for at least a mild recovery in the homebuilding sector next year. Earlier this month, Barclays Capital analyst Stephen Kim predicted a housing recovery buoyed by improving job numbers and the potential for some price stabilization.  Lennar earned $20.7 million, or 11 cents per share, during the third quarter, down 31% from $30 million, or 16 cents per share, a year earlier, but the third quarter had a silver lining with an increase in new home orders.  During the same period, the company’s gross margin on home sales stood at 21.1%, while its cancellation rate hit 20%. The company’s backlog of homes rose to 2,519, up 16% from a year ago, while deliveries dropped 3% from last year to 2,865 homes. New orders grew 11% from the year-ago quarter to 2,914 homes.

Gold to fall?

Gold prices will fall below $1,500 an ounce over the next three months and are unlikely to retest September’s all-time highs until later 2012 at the earliest, according to a Reuters poll of 20 hedge fund managers, economists and traders.  The bleak forecast, coming after gold has lost 11 percent of its value so far this month, is likely to fuel fears that bullion is close to ending its more than decade long bull run and entering a bear market.  Almost half of respondents predicted bullion will fall to 1,450 an ounce in the first quarter next year, with three seeing prices as low as $1,400 an ounce.  The forecasts come after a dismal performance last week when prices hit a 2 1/2 month low of $1,560 and gold lost its safe haven status.  Selling was fuelled by a scramble by hedge funds for cash to meet client redemptions at the end of a difficult year and a run for cash by European banks seeking to raise capital.

LPS – delinquencies up

Lender Processing Services, Inc. (LPS), a leading provider of integrated technology, data and analytics to the mortgage and real estate industries, reports the following “first look” at November 2011 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database of nearly 40 million mortgage loans.

Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure):  ​8.15%
Month-over-month change in delinquency rate:​  2.7%​

Year-over-year change in delinquency rate:​  -9.6%​

Total U.S foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate:​  4.16%​

Month-over-month change in foreclosure presale inventory rate: ​-3.0%​

Year-over-year change in foreclosure presale inventory rate:​  2.0%​

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure:  (A) 4,144,000​

Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:  1,809,000​

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:  (B)​  2,116,000​

Number of properties that are 30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure: (A+B)  6,260,000​

States with highest percentage of non-current* loans:  FL, MS, NV, NJ, IL​​

States with the lowest percentage of non-current* loans:  MT, SD, WY, AK, ND​​

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.
Notes:
(1) Totals are extrapolated based on LPS Applied Analytics’ loan-level database of mortgage assets
(2) All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Smart Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin December 9, 2011

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Florida, South Dakota foreclosures up

California-based CoreLogic said the rate of foreclosures in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area among outstanding mortgage loans was 12.26% for September, an increase of 1.55 percentage points compared with September 2010, when the rate was 10.71%.  At the same time, the mortgage delinquency rate has increased.  During September, 16.73% of mortgage loans in the Tampa metro area were 90 days or more delinquent compared with 16.44% for the same period last year. That’s a 0.29 percentage point increase from the same month last year.  The foreclosure activity in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater was higher than the national foreclosure rate of 3.48% in September. That’s an 8.78 percentage point difference.  Florida as a whole fared a little worse. In September, 17.38% of mortgages in the state were delinquent.  This data comes on the heels of another report from CoreLogic this week that showed Tampa Bay area home prices dropped 8.5% in October, compared with a year earlier.  The higher foreclosure rate could drag down sale prices further. The home-price decrease dropped less than 1% when distressed properties were excluded from the index, CoreLogic said. When troubled properties, such as short sales and bank-owned sales, were taken out of the data, prices declined just 0.9%, the report said.

CoreLogic says the rate of South Dakota foreclosures among outstanding mortgage loans for September is 1.4%, an increase from 1.11% in September 2010.  But the South Dakota rate sits more than 2 percentage points below the national foreclosure rate for September, which is 3.48%.  In Sioux Falls, the state’s largest city, the September foreclosure rate climbed to 1.48%, from 1.25% in September 2010. Two years earlier, the rate was below 1%.  The rate of mortgage delinquency in South Dakota decreased. In September, 2.63% of mortgage loans were 90 days or more delinquent, compared to 2.72% for the same period last year.

US trade deficit narrows

The US trade deficit narrowed in October to its lowest in 10 months, but imports from China hit a record high.  The trade gap totaled $43.5 billion, in line with a consensus estimate from analysts before the report. However, the Commerce Department revised its estimate of the September trade deficit to $44.2 billion from $43.1 billion.  As a result, the October trade gap narrowed 1.6% from September, instead of widening, as most analysts expected.  Both US imports and exports declined in October, in a possible sign of weakening demand in the US and abroad. Imports fell 1% to $222.6 billion, led by a $3.6 billion drop in industrial supplies and materials. The average price for imported oil fell for a fifth consecutive month to $98.84 per barrel, from its May peak of $108.70.  Despite the overall import decline, imports of capital goods and food, feeds and beverages increased to records in October.

Imports from China rose to a record $37.8 billion and imports from Japan increased to $12.3 billion, the highest since April 2008. US exports fell 0.8% to $179.2 billion, led by a $1.3 billion drop in industrial supplies and materials. The biggest monthly decline in that category was for non-monetary gold, which tumbled 25% to $3.5 billion. However, for the first 10 months of 2011, non-monetary gold exports totaled $27.8 billion, compared to $14.8 billion in the same period last year.  US exports to China increased to $9.7 billion, the highest since December.  The US trade gap with China was unchanged in October at $28.1 billion, but remained on track to surpass the annual record of about $272 billion set in 2010.

Olick – what are buyers putting down?

“Ask the Realtors, the Builders, even the Housing Reporters, and they’ll all tell you that the biggest impediments to housing’s recovery are higher credit underwriting standards.  Down payments are a big part of that, as most mortgage market experts will say you can’t get those great low rates today without putting down at least 20%, and more if you need a jumbo loan.  That’s why a new report from LendingTree listing the states with the highest and lowest average mortgage down payments was so surprising to me. It wasn’t the states, but the cash down.  New Jersey came in with the highest average, but that average was just 13.76%, according to LendingTree. North Dakota boasts the lowest average at 12.29%. Still both are well below the 20% we all complain about.  Granted FHA (Federal Housing Administration) loans, which due to the government insurance, require very low down payments, and while they rose to a very large share of the market during the worst years of the housing crash, they have since fallen back to an approximately 20% share of originations today.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require at least 10% down, but then you have to pay private mortgage insurance to get the best rates.  ‘The reality is when you put less than 20% down, you have to pay for some kind of insurance to protect the lender from the higher risk that you’ll default…but private mortgage insurers these days aren’t always willing to do business with low down payments,’ notes a LendingTree spokesman.  If average down payments are this low, it raises concern over proposed mortgage industry regulation that would require a 20% down payment for a lender to be able to securitize and sell a loan fully into the marketplace. Lenders, like LendingTree, don’t like it.  ‘If Federal regulators were to adopt the proposed 20% down payment requirement, a majority of borrowers wouldn’t be able to meet the standard given the findings in this report,’ said Doug Lebda, founder and CEO of LendingTree.  But what if the average that LendingTree is reporting, isn’t what it appears to be?  ‘What we know is that 20-25% of mortgages nationwide carry down payments of 3.5% or less (FHA or VA) while most of the rest carry down payments of 20% or more (Fannie, Freddie and jumbo),’ notes Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance. ‘So an average of 12 or 14% is not impossible, but it doesn’t really mean that a lot of people are actually getting mortgages with those ‘average’ down payments.’  Don’t you just hate it when real math gets in the way of a good lobby?”

One holdout to new EU treaty

The European Union said Friday that 26 of its 27 member countries are open to joining a new treaty tying their finances together to solve the euro crisis. Only Britain remains opposed, creating a deep rift in the union.  In marathon overnight talks, the 17 countries that use the euro gradually persuaded nearly all the others to consider joining the new treaty they would create. Some of those countries may face parliamentary opposition to the treaty, which would allow for unprecedented oversight of national budgets.  “Except for one, all are considering participation,” EU President Herman Van Rompuy told reporters after the summit ended. “I’m optimistic because I know it is going to be very close to 27.”  A document released near the end of a high-stakes EU summit Friday said the leaders of nine of the 10 EU countries that don’t use the euro “indicated the possibility to take part in this process after consulting their parliaments where appropriate.”  ”This is the breakthrough to the stability union,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told a press conference after the summit.

EU leaders expressed disappointment that Britain stayed out.  French President Nicolas Sarkozy blamed the split on British Prime Minister David Cameron.  “David Cameron made a proposal that seemed to us unacceptable, a protocol to the treaty that would have exonerated the United Kingdom from a great number of financial service regulations,” Sarkozy said shortly before dawn, after what he called a “difficult” dinner meeting had dragged through the night.  Cameron defended his stance.  “What was on offer is not in Britain’s interest so I didn’t agree to it,” he said. “We’re not in the euro and I’m glad we’re not in the euro. We’re never going to join the euro and we’re never going to give up this kind of sovereignty that these countries are having to give up.”

MBA – no compensation changes please!

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) doesn’t want to see any changes to the mortgage servicing compensation.  In a letter to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) , the trade group said no one has made a compelling case for why the current model needs to be tweaked. MBA President and CEO David Stevens said the group agrees with the government that there is a need for improvements for all participants of the mortgage underwriting and securitization processes.  “However, we believe that any change to the current servicing compensation model is unnecessary to accomplish these goals,” he said.  In late September, the FHFA proposed two mortgage servicing compensation models.  The MBA believes dramatically changing residential servicing, origination, and secondary market operations serves no one, claiming “radical changes in any of the major structures underlying the existing TBA market could reduce liquidity in the TBA.”  “The world of residential mortgage servicing has undergone unprecedented stress over the course of the economic downturn,” Stevens said. “The current servicer compensation model is still the best approach and making radical changes, like the proposed ‘fee for service,’ will have dramatic impacts not just on originators, servicers and investors, but also on borrowers in both the costs they pay to get a mortgage and the support they receive from their servicers.”  The MBA prefers a cash reserve structure, which calls for deferring some existing fees to cover servicing costs for “catastrophic economic and default situations.”

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com