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OC Register – investors are the answer

“According to a foreclosure sales report by RealtyTrac, foreclosure-related homes are still being gobbled up — they represent 20% of total transactions in 2011 Q3.  Foreclosures are usually viewed as a supply and price issue. High foreclosures keep home prices down, creating negative equity — and declining home prices keep foreclosures coming. This is a seemingly vicious cycle that feeds into the “shadow supply” problem and looks potentially like a never ending story.  But all vicious cycles eventually come to an end in a capitalist market system. Ironically, it is the enthusiastic response of investors and regular buyers to low-priced foreclosed homes, which could eventually break the foreclosure cycle.  Foreclosure-related home sales were one-fifth of total US home sales in the third quarter vs. 22% in the quarter before and 30% during the third quarter of 2010.

The decline in the market share of foreclosure-related home sales is partially explained by various hurdles to the efficient conclusion of the foreclosures process, but “even with the hurdles to selling foreclosures, foreclosure sales continue to represent a historical high percentage of all sales,” says RealtyTrac. Foreclosures’ shrinking share could also be caused by declining mortgage delinquencies, which have been dropping relatively quickly in California, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.  In California, the share of foreclosure related sales was 44% in the third quarter. California has one of the most efficient foreclosure recycling processes in the nation, so temporary supply constraints are not that big of an issue as, for example, they may be in Florida.  Strong demand may be stabilizing the average sales price of home in foreclosure, too, which was up 1% from the previous quarter and down just 3% for the third quarter in 2010. The reported average discount for foreclosed properties relative to regular homes was 34% — but I wouldn’t read too much into these numbers because they are not quality adjusted.  Still, declining mortgage delinquencies and strong demand for foreclosure product could mean that the end may soon be here for the foreclosure business — and what’s lurking in the shadows.”

Income up, spending down

The Commerce Department said today that spending was the weakest since June and followed a 0.1% gain in November.  Economists polled by Reuters had expected spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, to nudge up 0.1% last month. For all of 2011, spending rose 4.7%, the largest increase since 2007.  When adjusted for inflation, spending dipped 0.1%, breaking three straight months of gains. It increased 0.1% in November.  The government reported on Friday that consumer spending grew at a 2.0% annual pace in the fourth quarter, helping to lift gross domestic product 2.8% — acceleration from the third-quarter’s 1.8% rate.  Part of the spending, which has been concentrated in motor vehicles, has been funded from savings and credit cards as high unemployment constrains wage growth.

Wages rose last month, helping to prop-up incomes. Income advanced 0.5%, the largest gain since a matching increase in March, and followed a 0.1% rise in November. Economists had expected income to rise 0.4%.  Consumer spending is closely watched because it accounts for 70% of economic activity.  Unemployment stands at 8.5% — its lowest level in nearly three years after a sixth straight month of solid hiring.  For the final three months of 2011, Americans spent more on vehicles, and companies restocked their supplies at a robust pace.  Still, overall growth last quarter — and for all of last year — was slowed by the sharpest cuts in annual government spending in four decades. And many people are reluctant to spend more or buy homes, and many employers remain hesitant to hire, even though job growth has strengthened.

LPS – 2010-2011 originations good quality

The December Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services shows mortgage originations continued their decline from 2011’s September peak, down 10.1% from the month before. At the same time, those loans originated over the last two years have proven to be some of the best quality originations on record. Likely a result of tighter lending requirements, 2010-11 vintage originations showed 90-day default rates below those of all other years, going back to 2005. December origination data also shows that recent prepayment activity – a key indicator of mortgage refinances – has remained strong, with 2008-09 originations, high credit score borrowers and government-backed loans having benefited the most from recent, historically low interest rates.

Looking at judicial vs. non-judicial foreclosure states, LPS found that half of all loans in foreclosure in judicial states have not made a payment in more than two years. Foreclosure sale rates in non-judicial states stood at approximately four times that of judicial foreclosure states in December. Still, on average, pipeline ratios (the time it would take to clear through the inventory of loans either seriously delinquent or in foreclosure at the current rate of foreclosure sales) have declined significantly from earlier this year.

The December mortgage performance data also showed that foreclosure starts continued to decline, remaining at multi-year lows as of the end of 2011; down 3.7% for the month, and nearly 40% for the year.  As reported in LPS’ First Look release, other key results from LPS’ latest Mortgage Monitor report include:

Total US loan delinquency rate:  8.15%

​Month-over-month change in delinquency rate:  0.0%

​Total U.S foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate:  ​4.11%

​Month-over-month change in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:  -1.3%

​States with highest percentage of non-current loans:  FL, MS, NV, NJ, IL

​States with the lowest percentage of non-current loans:  MT, WY, SD, AK, ND

Big banks hedge against EU

Five large American banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, have more than $80 billion of exposure to Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece, the most economically stressed nations in the euro currency zone, according to a New York Times analysis of the banks’ financial disclosures.  But these banks have made extensive use of a type of financial insurance, called credit default swaps, to help them offset any losses that might occur if defaults swamped the five troubled nations. Using these swaps, along with other measures, the five banks have cut their theoretical exposure to the troubled countries by $30 billion, to $50 billion. The analysis also shows that Citigroup has the greatest percentage of its exposure potentially protected at 47%, while Bank of America has bought the least protection at 12%.  Big banks have reduced their sovereign debt exposure, but they still have tens of billions of dollars of it.  Credit-default swaps have functioned well for big bankruptcies, but they were also a big source of systemic weakness in 2008, when the American International Group nearly collapsed because it could not make payments on its side of its swaps contracts. Some market participants now doubt they would work properly during periods of great financial instability.  “The likelihood of actually getting paid out from owning a credit default swap would be troubling to me if this were my hedge against a systemic shock — especially in a political environment unfriendly to more Wall Street bailouts,” Mark Spitznagel, chief investment officer at Universal Investments, a hedge fund, said through a spokesman.

Olick – foreclosure pipeline swells

“The number of new foreclosures in 2011 dropped nearly 40%, according to year-end numbers just released by Lender Processing Services (LPS); there is, however, little cause for celebration.  The fall is largely due to moratoria and process reviews stemming from the so-called ‘robo-signing’ foreclosure paperwork scandal.  Mortgage delinquency rates were largely unchanged from last year, which means all that distress will be pushed forward to 2012 and beyond.  To give you an idea of just how much the ‘robo’ scandal is toying with the numbers, LPS compared states that require foreclosures to go through the courts versus states that don’t (judicial versus non-judicial) and found the following:

- 50% of loans in foreclosure in judicial states have not made a payment in two years, as opposed to 28% in non-judicial states.

- Foreclosure sale rates in non-judicial states are about four times those in judicial states.

‘Nationally, foreclosure pipelines remain at historic highs, but they are clearing at very different rates depending upon state procedures,’ says Herb Blecher of LPS Applied Analytics.  With the nation essentially split between judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states, it’s safe to say the foreclosure crisis will linger longer than anyone expected, especially with negotiations for a settlement between big banks and state attorneys general hitting yet another roadblock.  California Attorney General Kamala Harris rejected the latest proposal this week, calling it inadequate.  ‘Our state has been clear about what any multistate settlement must contain: transparency, relief going to the most distressed homeowners, and meaningful enforcement that ensures accountability. At this point, this deal does not suffice for California,’ she wrote in a statement.  Bank sources say that without California the value of the settlement would drop by billions and banks would still have major liability for foreclosure fraud. About one fifth of the nation’s foreclosures are in California.”

Replacements to help drive economy

Four years after the downturn began, the replacement cycle shows signs of kicking into a higher gear in the United States even among small businesses, and it could give an unexpected boost to growth and employment this year.  In the United States, large corporations have already dug into huge cash piles to upgrade plant and equipment, adding incrementally to an economy that grew by 2.8% in the fourth quarter.  Now small businesses, which drive about half of US economic growth and a big chunk of job creation, are increasing their spending on equipment, too, an important precursor to stronger hiring.  For the early signs of this small business revival, Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, points to two factors: access to credit has improved markedly as shown by a surge in banks’ commercial and industrial lending, and an index of capital expenditure intentions, as measured by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), is climbing. NFIB policy analyst Holly Wade said anecdotally she hears of more businesspeople talking of increasing their budgets.  “They have stretched out their machinery and equipment and would have normally invested in replacement, but they were waiting as long as possible. Now they are starting to see better sales and earnings, and they are more comfortable investing some of those dollars in capex,” she said.  “In the next three to six months, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the same rate of growth in capital outlays we have seen recently.”

FHA – originations down, delinquencies up

The serious delinquency rate for Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgages reached 9.6% in December, the highest level in more than two years, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) said.  More than 711,000 FHA-insured loans were seriously delinquent, up 18.9% from one year earlier, according to the HUD report. It’s also a 3.2% increase from the month before. The delinquency rate has been steadily increasing since passing 8.2% last summer.  Meanwhile, originations are down. In December, the FHA insured 93,700 mortgages, a nearly 30% decline from the 133,000 insured in December 2010.  In its fiscal year 2011, the FHA Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund slipped to a 0.24% capital ratio from 0.5% the year prior. By law, the fund must remain above 2%.  FHA officials attempted to temper fears that the fund would need a bailout. An independent study done showed home prices would have to deteriorate significantly before an injection of tax dollars would be needed.

“It would take very significant declines in home prices in 2012 to create a situation where FHA would need additional support,” said FHA Acting Commissioner Carole Galante when the projections came out.  American Enterprise Institute Fellow Edward Pinto isn’t convinced. His study claimed that FHA is actually undercapitalized by as much as $53 billion using more traditional accounting rules.  The FHA put new guidelines in place this week that would tighten restrictions on lenders seeking approval to write FHA mortgages. Also, the changes would force more firms to buyback defaulted home loans and reduce seller concessions, which Pinto said would have the most impact, according to Pinto.  “We need to get back to where the mortgages themselves stand on their own regardless of what happens with house price inflation or deflation,” Pinto said.

Bakersfield.com – no kudos for the POTUS

President Obama’s announcement in last week’s State of the Union address that he has created a new unit to probe mortgage abuse earns no cheers from us. Instead, we are reminded how shamefully little has been done to address the housing crisis that continues to plague so many Americans.  The Making Home Affordable mortgage relief program has been an utter flop. An attempt by the Department of Justice to broker a multistate settlement with major banks over foreclosure abuses that would fund relief for struggling homeowners has gone nowhere. There have been no meaningful prosecutions, no significant relief for homeowners and few new fraud protections.  Now, what little break has been granted to troubled homeowners — in the form of tax relief on canceled mortgage debt — is due to expire at year’s end and too few seem aware of the looming deadline.

Normally, debt that is forgiven or canceled by a lender in a foreclosure or short sale must be included as income on tax returns and is taxable. However, the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 excluded the reporting of up to $1 million in canceled debt on a primary residence for tax purposes. But not for long.  Local real estate agents report no frenzy of calls or uptick in clients wanting to carry out short sales. Scott Tobias, president of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors, told The Californian last week that “I think, basically, homeowners don’t know about” the tax relief expiring on Dec. 31, 2012.  With nearly half of all Bakersfield mortgages underwater, it’s essential for people to know of the upcoming tax break expiration, especially considering that it can take months to close a short sale.  The housing market is nowhere near recovery; Congress ought to extend the tax relief. But no one should rely on Congress to act. It’s imperative for underwater homeowners to understand their options and be informed about the looming tax deadline.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

************************************************************

Foreclosures fell 12% in California, but…

The number of California homes entering foreclosure in the fourth quarter fell 11.9% from the same period in 2010 to the second-lowest level over the last four years, said DataQuick, a real estate information firm in San Diego. A total of 61,517 notices of default, which are filed to initiate foreclosures, were recorded on California properties during the fourth quarter. That was a 13.7% drop from the third quarter of 2011.  Some economists say California and other states will probably see an increase in foreclosure actions as banks deal more aggressively with seriously delinquent mortgages. That increase probably will push home prices lower.  Default notice filings fell sharply in December, particularly those involving loans from Bank of America and Bank of New York Mellon, and helped drag down the overall quarterly numbers. Average daily filings on behalf of Bank of New York Mellon dropped 75% from November to December; filings on behalf of Bank of America dropped 50%, Wells Fargo 20% and JPMorgan Chase 13%, DataQuick said Tuesday.  The number of homes taken back through the foreclosure process also fell, by 11.8% from a year earlier to 31,260.

The majority of the loans entering the foreclosure process in the fourth quarter were made in 2005 to 2007, when poor lending practices by major institutions were rampant.  Californian homeowners were a median nine months behind on their payments when they received a notice of default from their lender. Among the state’s largest counties, mortgages in San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo counties were the least likely to go into foreclosure. Homes were most likely to enter the foreclosure process in Sacramento, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties, according to DataQuick.  In Southern California, the number of default notices filed on properties fell 10.2% from a year earlier, and the number of homes taken back by banks fell 11%.  Many foreclosures were delayed in 2011 as banks worked through issues surrounding mortgage servicing and foreclosure. Settlement negotiations among attorneys general, federal agencies and the mortgage industry over foreclosure and mortgage servicing abuses dragged on through most of last year.

Analysts attributed the delays to the uncertainty over the outcome of those talks. If a deal is struck among the parties and new foreclosure processes by banks are put in place, some analysts say the foreclosure machinery could ramp up again.  Those negotiations continue to inch forward but could still fall apart. State attorneys general have received drafts of the deal with the banks, a $25-billion settlement that would overhaul foreclosure and mortgage servicing practices, according to two people familiar with the negotiations who aren’t authorized to speak publicly.  A key component to any strong deal would be California’s participation. State Atty. Gen. Kamala D. Harris, who must make that decision for the Golden State, has not said whether she will sign on. Harris walked away from talks with the banks last year, saying they were asking for too much release from liability, but since then certain provisions have been added to the deal with the aim of getting her back to the table.  Yesterday the Center for Responsible Lending gave the proposed $25-billion deal a tentative thumbs up, calling it “an important step forward in addressing foreclosure abuses.” The nonpartisan advocacy group noted that the deal would “provide an important template for ways banks can use principal reduction to reduce unnecessary foreclosures and put the country back on a path to economic recovery.”

GOP says Obama economic plan is a failure

President Barack Obama has resorted to “extremism” with stifling, anti-growth policies and has tried dividing Americans, not uniting them, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels said Tuesday in the formal Republican response to the president’s State of the Union address.  He took particular aim at Obama’s efforts in recent months to raise taxes on the rich and castigate them. “No feature of the Obama presidency has been sadder than its constant effort to divide us, to curry favor with some Americans by castigating others,” Daniels said, according to excerpts of his remarks released before he and Obama spoke. “As in previous moments of national danger, we Americans are all in the same boat.”  “The extremism that stifles the development of homegrown energy, or cancels a perfectly sane pipeline that would employ tens of thousands, or jacks up consumer utility bills for no improvement in either human health or world temperature, is a pro-poverty policy,” Daniels said.

Obama has halted work on the proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline from western Canada to Texas’ Gulf Coast. Republicans say the project would create thousands of jobs, a claim opponents say is overstated. The administration has also pursued policies aimed at reducing pollution and global warming.  Daniels said Republicans prefer “a passionate pro-growth approach that breaks all ties and calls all close ones in favor of private sector jobs that restore opportunity for all and generate the public revenues to pay our bills.”  Even before Obama spoke, Republicans in the Capitol and on the campaign trail accused him of three years of higher spending, bigger government and tax increases that have left the economy stuck in a ditch.  “This election is going to be a referendum on the president’s economic policies,” which have worsened the economy, said House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio. “The politics of envy, the politics of dividing our country is not what America is all about.”

Olick – more plans from the president

“After several largely ineffective programs to help troubled borrowers and after fruitless attempts at budging the hard-line conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, President Obama is proposing a brand new refinance program for borrowers who are current on their mortgages, regardless of who owns their loan; the catch is that this one has to go through Congress.  ‘I’m sending this Congress a plan that gives every responsible homeowner the chance to save about $3,000 a year on their mortgage, by refinancing at historically low interest rates. No more red tape. No more runaround from the banks,’ the President announced in his State of the Union address.  Unlike previous efforts in the refinance space, including a recently revamped and expanded government program for borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth, this plan would not be limited to those with loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, according to senior administration officials. The two mortgage giants own or guarantee about half of the nation’s mortgages. It would be open to all borrowers current on their loans.

The Obama administration is offering precious few details, promising more in the coming weeks, but several sources say the plan is to ask Congress to allow the government mortgage insurer, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), to back refinances of underwater mortgages. No estimates were given as to how many borrowers such a plan could potentially help, only that this would be a voluntary, borrower-initiated plan, and not a blanket refinance of all borrowers.  The costs, according to administration officials, would be modest, and the President would request that a portion of his financial crisis responsibility fee offset any of those costs, so there would be no addition to the federal debt.  ‘A small fee on the largest financial institutions will ensure that it won’t add to the deficit, and will give banks that were rescued by taxpayers a chance to repay a deficit of trust,’ Mr. Obama added.  Loan servicers could be faced with a flood of applications and could have to add resources to handle it all, but officials say the opportunity to generate revenues from the refinances would be incentive enough. Still many servicers have balked at the idea of mass refinancing, as the new loans could present more risk and less reward.

The idea is to remove the barriers and ‘frictions’ that have kept many borrowers out of refinancing to historically low rates. Some of those include high levels of negative equity, loan level price adjustments, loan origination dates, put-backs on loans that default, and borrower qualifications.  Then there is the very basic problem of politics. Whatever the details of the plan are, Republicans, despite the fact that they have been calling for more refinances, are unlikely to hand President Obama a popular victory on the eve of a presidential election. They may also oppose anything that makes Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bigger, when the two are allegedly winding down.”

Americans lead in debt reduction

Americans are cutting their debt faster than other countries and could already be halfway through the deleveraging process, setting the stage for the nation’s economic recovery, says a new report from McKinsey Global Institute.  However, even when U.S. consumers finish deleveraging, they probably won’t be as powerful an engine of global growth as they were before the crisis, warns the report.  According to McKinsey analysts, deleveraging happens in two stages: First, the private sector reduces debt, while economic growth is negative or minimal and government debt rises; then, growth rebounds and supports gradual government deleveraging.  “Somewhat surprisingly, given the amount of concern over the U.S. economy, we find that the United States is furthest along in private-sector debt reduction and closest to beginning the second phase of deleveraging,” says the report.  “The remaining obstacles for its return to growth are its unsettled housing market and its failure to lay out a credible medium-term plan for public debt reduction,” concludes the report.

Since the financial crisis, U.S. household debt has fallen by $584 billion, or 15 percentage points relative to disposable income, which is more than in any other country.  At this pace, Americans could reach sustainable debt levels by the middle of 2013.  The report also found that since the 2008-2009 financial crisis the world’s ten largest developed economies have seen their total debt increase, primarily due to growing government debt.  The U.S., South Korea and Australia are the only countries that have seen a decline in the ratio of total debt to GDP during that time period.  Moreover, the United Kingdom and Spain are deleveraging at a much slower pace, and it could take another decade until their private-sector debt returns to the pre-bubble levels.  In the United States, most of the private-sector deleveraging has happened in the financial sector, where debt relative to GDP had declined to $6.1 trillion from $8 trillion, levels not seen since 2000.

MBA – mortgages down 5%

Mortgage applications decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 20, 2012.  The results include an adjustment to account for the Martin Luther King holiday.  The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13.8 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index decreased 5.2 percent from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.7 percent compared with the previous week and was 6.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 4.12 percent.  The four week moving average is up 0.47 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 4.85 percent for the Refinance Index.  The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 81.3 percent of total applications from 82.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.3 percent from 5.6 percent of total applications from the previous week.  In December 2011, among refinance borrowers, 56.6 percent of applications were for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 24.3 percent for 15-year fixed loans, and 5.3 percent for ARMs.  The share of refinance applications for “other” fixed-rate mortgages with amortization schedules other than 15 and 30-year terms was 13.8 percent of all refinance applications. The share for 30-year fixed increased from the previous month while the 15-year fixed, ARM and the “other” fixed category shares decreased from last month.

Markets down on possible Obama re-election

So far, the presidential election has not impacted stocks, but that could change if Mitt Romney appears unlikely to make it as the GOP nominee.  For the past two days, Romney’s vulnerability to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has been the talk of trading rooms.  Gingrich beat Romney handily in the South Carolina primary Saturday, the second of three early contests that Romney lost. But the volatile Gingrich is not viewed as a strong candidate to beat President Obama.  “Obama’s gone from 50 percent probability to 55 percent on Intrade,” said Dan Clifton, Strategas head of policy research. “This week he just kind of exploded once Gingrich won in South Carolina. The Intrade market is saying there’s a much greater chance of President Obama being re-elected.”  Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, is by far the preferred candidate on Wall Street, where many disagree with Obama’s policies and have been stung by what they call “class warfare.”  “I don’t think it’s fully reflected in the market yet. The market is drifting. There’s a mild degree of anxiety, and that’s really because it’s overbought. Is there a gentle longing for a smoke-filled room? Yeah. There’s some yearning for that,” said Art Cashin, UBS director of floor operations.  The S&P 500 broke its five-day winning streak Tuesday, finishing 1 point lower at 1314, but it is up 4.5 percent since the start of the year.  Analysts believe if Romney loses the Florida primary next Tuesday, he will have a hard time stopping Gingrich’s momentum.

Huffington post – Romney on mortgages

Finally, a presidential candidate came out and honestly addressed the biggest problem in our economy, the enormous debt overhang in our mortgage market. A few days ago, Mitt Romney was at a forum in Florida talking about foreclosures, and his comments were actually refreshingly honest about our housing and banking situation and the need for a debt write-down.  We’re just so overleveraged, so much debt in our society, and some of the institutions that hold it aren’t willing to write it off and say they made a mistake, they loaned too much, we’re overextended, write those down and start over. They keep on trying to harangue and pretend what they have on their books is still what it’s worth.  Mitt Romney was pointing out that the banks are carrying debt on their books at inflated values. When was the last serious politician to make that point, openly? There’s more.  In some cases, if the debt is not in something you can service, it’s like you have to move on and start over away from those debts. It’s helpful if you get an institution that’s willing to work with you, but if you don’t you have no other option.

Romney is now saying that if you can’t pay your debts and your lending institution won’t work with you, walk away. Perhaps this isn’t so surprising, though, as Romney is an expert in debt restructuring. This is actually just common business sense.  And finally, he offered a real solution to the mortgage debt crisis.  “The banks are scared to death, of course, because they think they’re going to go out of business… They’re afraid that if they write all these loans off, they’re going to go broke. And so they’re feeling the same thing you’re feeling. They just want to pretend all of this is going to get paid someday so they don’t have to write it off and potentially go out of business themselves.  This is cascading throughout our system and in some respects government is trying to just hold things in place, hoping things get better… My own view is you recognize the distress, you take the loss and let people reset. Let people start over again, let the banks start over again. Those that are prudent will be able to restart, those that aren’t will go out of business. This effort to try and exact the burden of their mistakes on homeowners and commercial property owners, I think, is a mistake.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

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************************************************************

2012 to be the best year for short sales?

The Mortgage Debt Forgiveness Act of 2007 allows an income tax exemption for a homeowner whose mortgage debt is partly or entirely forgiven by a bank.  It’s set to expire Dec. 31, 2012.  Matt Alegi, a partner with the Potomac law firm Shulman Rogers and chair of the firm’s residential real estate practice group, says the tax break has meant a savings in the tens of thousands of dollars for individuals.  Typically, if someone were to have $150,000 forgiven by the bank, Alegi says, “you just made another $150,000 of income for tax purposes in that year.”  So, say someone makes $50,000 but had $150,000 forgiven by the bank. That person is now paying taxes on a $200,000 income, and included in a much higher tax bracket.  The loss of the relief will plunge homeowners further into debt, Alegi says.

He also thinks the expiration of the Debt Forgiveness Act will have an impact on short sales themselves. Homeowners could try to push the short sale through this year to take advantage of the tax break.  Alegi believes there will be strong lobbying to extend the tax break. If it isn’t extended, the appeal of a short sale could greatly diminish for the homeowner.  To take advantage of the Debt Relief Act, you need to fall under very specific guidelines outlined by the IRS.  For example, the debt forgiven is only for primary residences and the debt must have been used to buy, build or substantially improve your principal residence and be secured by that residence.  Alegi says homeowners who spent the forgiven money on education or other bills do not qualify.

Gridlock an Obama strategy?

When President Obama outlines his goals for 2012 during Tuesday’s State of the Union address, he shouldn’t expect a lot of cooperation from Republicans, senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said yesterday.  “With the Obama economy established now…unemployment is still at 8 ½%,” McConnell said. “It didn’t work, and we’re not interested in doing more of the things that don’t work.”  He said Obama was “AWOL” last year on his bus tour when Republicans wanted to tackle tax reform and entitlements, and he expects more of the same this year.   “He was not involved whatsoever,” McConnell said. “So I’m not optimistic, frankly, that in an election year that he’s likely to be any more engaged than he was last year.”  What’s more, he thinks the logjam in the nation’s capital is part of Obama’s agenda.  “That’s his strategy…to demonize Congress, to complain because he can’t continue to get everything he wants, like he did the first two years,” he said. “It’s all about his re-election and not about the country.”  One thing that McConnell thinks will get done is the payroll tax cut extension, which was extended for only two months in December when Congress couldn’t come to an agreement.  “We’ll be back at trying to figure out how to do that for the balance of the year and how to pay for it,” he said. “We don’t want to add to the deficit.”

What the $25 billion bank deal means

According to an Associated Press report, five major banks — Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citibank and Ally Financial — and US state attorneys general could adopt the agreement within weeks. It’s expected President Barack Obama will mention new developments in the negotiations in his State of the Union address today.  A settlement between the banks and the states doesn’t mean homeowners who lost their homes to foreclosure will get them back. In fact, they’re unlikely to benefit much at all financially, though the total financial settlement could be as high as $25 billion.  What’s worse is the settlement does not apply to loans held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Since Fannie and Freddie own about half of all US mortgages – or 31 million US home loans – that means a lot of homeowners who have been hurt by the banks’ deceptive foreclosure practices won’t be getting much-needed assistance.  Nearly 11 million people – one in four homeowners – owe more than their home is worth. According to current guidelines, these underwater homeowners have few options and little chance at refinancing.  Here’s how the settlement could shape up:

-  $17 billion would go toward reducing the principal balance struggling homeowners owe on their mortgages.

-  $5 billion would be put into a reserve account for various state and federal programs. A portion of this money would cover the $1,800 checks that would be sent to homeowners affected by deceptive practices. Only about 750,000 Americans, or half of the households who might be eligible for assistance under the deal, will likely receive checks.

-  About $3 billion would be used to help homeowners refinance at 5.25%, far below current mortgage interest rates.

If the proposed settlement terms are accepted, roughly 1 million of these homeowners could see the principal amount of their mortgages reduced by an average of $20,000. That’s good news for some, but bad news for the other 10 million homeowners who would like to claim a principal reduction but won’t qualify.  The better news is this settlement has the potential to reshape long-standing lending guidelines and make things easier for at-risk and underwater homeowners across the board. But critics say it doesn’t do enough. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) tells the Associated Press: “Wall Street is again trying to pass the buck. Instead of criminal prosecutions, we’re talking about something that’s not more than a slap on the wrist.”  Some states have disagreed over what to offer banks, with states like New York, Delaware, Nevada and Massachusetts arguing banks should not be “protected from future civil liability.” The deal will not fully release banks from future criminal lawsuits by individual states, and a few of those states’ attorneys general have already promised to pursue their own investigations.  Bank officials have argued few, if any, foreclosures wrongfully took place as a result of documentation issues. Ally Financial CEO Michael Carpenter has been among the most vocal, claiming the company found no instances of wrongful foreclosure after its own internal audit. Carpenter has said he will fight the government in court if need be.

US Treasurys edge higher after Greek setback

US Treasurys edged higher today, after euro zone finance ministers rejected an offer by private creditors to restructure Greek debt, keeping alive fears of a default.  Benchmark 10-year note’s yield was at 2.06%, compared with 2.058% in late US trade on Monday. The yield rose as high as 2.094% on Friday, its highest since early December. The 30-year bond yield was at 3.14%.  Demand for safe-haven US debt was further boosted after a report rekindled fears that Portugal, seen as the second most risky country in the euro zone, could be the next potential default candidate after Greece.  Further dousing optimism, Germany denied a report that it was ready to boost the combined firepower of the euro zone’s rescue funds to 750 billion euros ($979 billion).  During its two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday the Federal Reserve is expected to push out expectations on when it will next raise interest rates until at least 2014, and the meeting will also be closely watched for any hints of new QE, which analysts expect would focus on mortgage-backed bonds.  The Treasury Department will sell four-week bills and two-year notes later in the day. The Treasury will sell a total of $99 billion in new two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes this week.

Mortgage writedowns to cost taxpayers $100 billion

Forgiving mortgage debt on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans would cost the taxpayer-funded companies almost $100 billion, their regulator said.   The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said that as of June 30, the companies guaranteed nearly 3 million mortgages on single- family homes that are underwater, or worth less than the loans they secure.  “FHFA estimates that principal forgiveness for all of these mortgages would require funding of almost $100 billion,” FHFA Acting Director Edward J. DeMarco said in a Jan. 20 letter to Representative Elijah Cummings, a Maryland Democrat who had threatened to subpoena the information. The FHFA posted the letter on its website today.  Nearly 80% of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowers with negative equity were current on their payments, DeMarco said.

DeMarco, whose agency was created by Congress to minimize losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and is independent of President Barack Obama’s administration, has maintained that principal forgiveness would increase the size of the government’s bailout of the companies, which have cost taxpayers more than $153 billion since they were taken under government control in 2008.  The agency compared the cost of principal forgiveness to the companies’ current practice of forbearance, which allows delinquent borrowers to defer payments.  “Given that any money spent on this endeavor would ultimately come from taxpayers and given that our analysis does not indicate a preservation of assets for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FMCC) substantial enough to offset costs, an expenditure of this nature at this time would, in my judgment, require congressional action,” he said.

WSJ – EU tries to revive Greek talks

European Union finance ministers today piled pressure on Greece and its private-sector creditors to do more to ensure that a proposed deal to restructure Greece’s private-sector debt will be enough to put the country back on a firm fiscal footing.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the euro zone’s four triple-A-rated countries-—Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Luxembourg—are pushing for a low average interest rate on new bonds to be issued as part of the restructuring, in order to ensure the government can pay its debts in the future.  But as they were heading to a meeting Tuesday, EU finance ministers also urged Greece to implement tough austerity and structural reforms and provide more written assurances to its partners that it would commit to its pledges before further aid can be released.  Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter said she’s “not pleased” with progress so far. “We’re sending a very direct message to Greece that the community expects more, also in terms of structural reform,” she told reporters. “We’re not pleased and only when there’s a written message on the table in front of us, can further assistance be discussed.”

Greece’s debt restructuring is planned to take the form of a bond exchange in which creditors holding some €200 billion ($260.32 billion) in debt would swap their securities for new instruments with half the face value. The key sticking point is how much interest the new bonds should pay.  The restructuring is part and parcel of the second bailout program for Greece amounting to €130 billion. Without this loan, Greece will default on a €14.4 billion bond maturing March 20.  But talks in Athens with the Institute of International Finance, which represents the majority of Greece’s private-sector creditors, have dragged on for three weeks and stalled over the weekend. Private-sector creditors said in a final offer that they won’t accept an average interest rate of less than 4%.  The IMF voiced concerns yesterday that the deal being discussed by Greece and the creditors would leave the country with a higher-than-expected debt burden in the years ahead, people familiar with the matter said.  That sets up a difficult choice: press bondholders to accept more losses, or accept that Greece’s peers and the IMF will have to kick in more support.

Olick – foreclosure investors a double edged sword

“The best and most expeditious way to clear the vast inventory of foreclosed properties weighing down today’s housing market is to get more investors in and sell them these properties at bulk discounts.  That’s what the Obama administration and Federal regulators are currently considering for the thousands of homes currently owned by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA.  While big private equity funds are still largely in a very tedious deal-making stage with banks or waiting on the sidelines for a government program, smaller individual investors are getting in. Nearly 23% of home purchases in December were by investors, according to a new survey from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance. That is a slight increase from November, but the share has remained largely unchanged for the past year.  What has changed dramatically is how many of these investors are using all-cash…74% according to the survey, which also found that, ‘cash buyers are able to bid significantly lower—and successfully—on many properties because they offer a shorter and more reliable closing timeline.’ That is precisely what mortgage servicers want.

‘While investor bids may not be the first offers accepted, they often end up winning properties after other homebuyers are eliminated because of mortgage approval or timeline problems,’ according to the survey authors. ‘Appraisals below the contracted price are a common reason for mortgage denials. Most mortgage financing timelines are now in excess of 30 days.’  There has been a lot of concern among industry analysts that bulk foreclosure sales would push home prices down further, but it appears that is already happening, as investors usually offer 10-20% below list price, while first time home buyers and current homeowners are generally offering list. If the offers are competitive, cash will prevail.”

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris
* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

************************************************************

Program roadblocks hold back recovery

Three years after the foreclosure crisis began, the process to apply for a loan modification remains a bureaucratic nightmare that is complicating the housing recovery and could dull the impact of any Obama administration initiatives in the works.  The administration’s biggest foreclosure-prevention effort, the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), targeted to help 3 million to 4 million homeowners, has reached only about a quarter of that since its 2009 inception.  The program pushed mortgage servicers to cut interest, extend terms, or defer parts of a loan in an effort to reduce monthly payments and keep borrowers in their homes.  But servicers have dragged their feet on providing wide-scale modifications. They continue to lose documents, use inaccurate numbers to issue denials, or both approve and deny applications at the same time, according to housing advocates.  “It delays resolution of the problem of defaulting loans and it is adding uncertainty to the market,” said Susan Wachter, a housing expert at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.  Around one in every 12 mortgages in the country is delinquent, and only a fraction of them have received modifications.

GOP wants new payroll tax cut bill

Top House Republicans rebelled Sunday against a bipartisan, Senate-approved bill extending payroll tax cuts and jobless benefits for two months, reigniting a politically fueled holiday-season clash that had seemed all but doused.  The House GOP defiance cast uncertainty over how quickly Congress would forestall a tax increase otherwise heading straight at 160 million workers beginning New Year’s Day. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, said it could be finished within two weeks, which suggested that lawmakers might have to spend much of their usual holiday break battling each other in the Capitol.  A spokeswoman for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., said the House would vote Monday to either request formal bargaining with the Senate or to make the legislation “responsible and in line with the needs of hard-working taxpayers and middle-class families.”  Cantor spokeswoman Laena Fallon did not specify what those changes might be, beyond a longer-lasting bill. Boehner, though, expressed support for “reasonable reductions in spending” in a House-approved payroll tax bill and for provisions that blocked Obama administration anti-pollution rules.

Lennar picks up 650 home sites

Homebuilder Lennar Corp. acquired 650 finished home sites in 20 communities located in the Pacific Northwest.  The company purchased the sites from Seattle-based Premier Communities for an undisclosed amount. The transaction is part of a plan to build the firm’s operations in the Pacific Northwest and includes properties in Portland, Ore., and Seattle. Home values in the communities where the properties are located range from $150,000 to $460,000.  The move into the Pacific Northwest is Lennar’s first new market expansion since the builder entered Atlanta in 2010. Lennar now constructs new homes in 18 states and 44 different markets, and expects the expansion to result in 200 new home deliveries by the second half of 2012.  Lennar’s growth comes at a time when some analysts are calling for at least a mild recovery in the homebuilding sector next year. Earlier this month, Barclays Capital analyst Stephen Kim predicted a housing recovery buoyed by improving job numbers and the potential for some price stabilization.  Lennar earned $20.7 million, or 11 cents per share, during the third quarter, down 31% from $30 million, or 16 cents per share, a year earlier, but the third quarter had a silver lining with an increase in new home orders.  During the same period, the company’s gross margin on home sales stood at 21.1%, while its cancellation rate hit 20%. The company’s backlog of homes rose to 2,519, up 16% from a year ago, while deliveries dropped 3% from last year to 2,865 homes. New orders grew 11% from the year-ago quarter to 2,914 homes.

Gold to fall?

Gold prices will fall below $1,500 an ounce over the next three months and are unlikely to retest September’s all-time highs until later 2012 at the earliest, according to a Reuters poll of 20 hedge fund managers, economists and traders.  The bleak forecast, coming after gold has lost 11 percent of its value so far this month, is likely to fuel fears that bullion is close to ending its more than decade long bull run and entering a bear market.  Almost half of respondents predicted bullion will fall to 1,450 an ounce in the first quarter next year, with three seeing prices as low as $1,400 an ounce.  The forecasts come after a dismal performance last week when prices hit a 2 1/2 month low of $1,560 and gold lost its safe haven status.  Selling was fuelled by a scramble by hedge funds for cash to meet client redemptions at the end of a difficult year and a run for cash by European banks seeking to raise capital.

LPS – delinquencies up

Lender Processing Services, Inc. (LPS), a leading provider of integrated technology, data and analytics to the mortgage and real estate industries, reports the following “first look” at November 2011 month-end mortgage performance statistics derived from its loan-level database of nearly 40 million mortgage loans.

Total U.S. loan delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure):  ​8.15%
Month-over-month change in delinquency rate:​  2.7%​

Year-over-year change in delinquency rate:​  -9.6%​

Total U.S foreclosure pre-sale inventory rate:​  4.16%​

Month-over-month change in foreclosure presale inventory rate: ​-3.0%​

Year-over-year change in foreclosure presale inventory rate:​  2.0%​

Number of properties that are 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure:  (A) 4,144,000​

Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:  1,809,000​

Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:  (B)​  2,116,000​

Number of properties that are 30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure: (A+B)  6,260,000​

States with highest percentage of non-current* loans:  FL, MS, NV, NJ, IL​​

States with the lowest percentage of non-current* loans:  MT, SD, WY, AK, ND​​

*Non-current totals combine foreclosures and delinquencies as a percent of active loans in that state.
Notes:
(1) Totals are extrapolated based on LPS Applied Analytics’ loan-level database of mortgage assets
(2) All whole numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

************************************************************

Florida, South Dakota foreclosures up

California-based CoreLogic said the rate of foreclosures in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area among outstanding mortgage loans was 12.26% for September, an increase of 1.55 percentage points compared with September 2010, when the rate was 10.71%.  At the same time, the mortgage delinquency rate has increased.  During September, 16.73% of mortgage loans in the Tampa metro area were 90 days or more delinquent compared with 16.44% for the same period last year. That’s a 0.29 percentage point increase from the same month last year.  The foreclosure activity in Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater was higher than the national foreclosure rate of 3.48% in September. That’s an 8.78 percentage point difference.  Florida as a whole fared a little worse. In September, 17.38% of mortgages in the state were delinquent.  This data comes on the heels of another report from CoreLogic this week that showed Tampa Bay area home prices dropped 8.5% in October, compared with a year earlier.  The higher foreclosure rate could drag down sale prices further. The home-price decrease dropped less than 1% when distressed properties were excluded from the index, CoreLogic said. When troubled properties, such as short sales and bank-owned sales, were taken out of the data, prices declined just 0.9%, the report said.

CoreLogic says the rate of South Dakota foreclosures among outstanding mortgage loans for September is 1.4%, an increase from 1.11% in September 2010.  But the South Dakota rate sits more than 2 percentage points below the national foreclosure rate for September, which is 3.48%.  In Sioux Falls, the state’s largest city, the September foreclosure rate climbed to 1.48%, from 1.25% in September 2010. Two years earlier, the rate was below 1%.  The rate of mortgage delinquency in South Dakota decreased. In September, 2.63% of mortgage loans were 90 days or more delinquent, compared to 2.72% for the same period last year.

US trade deficit narrows

The US trade deficit narrowed in October to its lowest in 10 months, but imports from China hit a record high.  The trade gap totaled $43.5 billion, in line with a consensus estimate from analysts before the report. However, the Commerce Department revised its estimate of the September trade deficit to $44.2 billion from $43.1 billion.  As a result, the October trade gap narrowed 1.6% from September, instead of widening, as most analysts expected.  Both US imports and exports declined in October, in a possible sign of weakening demand in the US and abroad. Imports fell 1% to $222.6 billion, led by a $3.6 billion drop in industrial supplies and materials. The average price for imported oil fell for a fifth consecutive month to $98.84 per barrel, from its May peak of $108.70.  Despite the overall import decline, imports of capital goods and food, feeds and beverages increased to records in October.

Imports from China rose to a record $37.8 billion and imports from Japan increased to $12.3 billion, the highest since April 2008. US exports fell 0.8% to $179.2 billion, led by a $1.3 billion drop in industrial supplies and materials. The biggest monthly decline in that category was for non-monetary gold, which tumbled 25% to $3.5 billion. However, for the first 10 months of 2011, non-monetary gold exports totaled $27.8 billion, compared to $14.8 billion in the same period last year.  US exports to China increased to $9.7 billion, the highest since December.  The US trade gap with China was unchanged in October at $28.1 billion, but remained on track to surpass the annual record of about $272 billion set in 2010.

Olick – what are buyers putting down?

“Ask the Realtors, the Builders, even the Housing Reporters, and they’ll all tell you that the biggest impediments to housing’s recovery are higher credit underwriting standards.  Down payments are a big part of that, as most mortgage market experts will say you can’t get those great low rates today without putting down at least 20%, and more if you need a jumbo loan.  That’s why a new report from LendingTree listing the states with the highest and lowest average mortgage down payments was so surprising to me. It wasn’t the states, but the cash down.  New Jersey came in with the highest average, but that average was just 13.76%, according to LendingTree. North Dakota boasts the lowest average at 12.29%. Still both are well below the 20% we all complain about.  Granted FHA (Federal Housing Administration) loans, which due to the government insurance, require very low down payments, and while they rose to a very large share of the market during the worst years of the housing crash, they have since fallen back to an approximately 20% share of originations today.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require at least 10% down, but then you have to pay private mortgage insurance to get the best rates.  ‘The reality is when you put less than 20% down, you have to pay for some kind of insurance to protect the lender from the higher risk that you’ll default…but private mortgage insurers these days aren’t always willing to do business with low down payments,’ notes a LendingTree spokesman.  If average down payments are this low, it raises concern over proposed mortgage industry regulation that would require a 20% down payment for a lender to be able to securitize and sell a loan fully into the marketplace. Lenders, like LendingTree, don’t like it.  ‘If Federal regulators were to adopt the proposed 20% down payment requirement, a majority of borrowers wouldn’t be able to meet the standard given the findings in this report,’ said Doug Lebda, founder and CEO of LendingTree.  But what if the average that LendingTree is reporting, isn’t what it appears to be?  ‘What we know is that 20-25% of mortgages nationwide carry down payments of 3.5% or less (FHA or VA) while most of the rest carry down payments of 20% or more (Fannie, Freddie and jumbo),’ notes Guy Cecala of Inside Mortgage Finance. ‘So an average of 12 or 14% is not impossible, but it doesn’t really mean that a lot of people are actually getting mortgages with those ‘average’ down payments.’  Don’t you just hate it when real math gets in the way of a good lobby?”

One holdout to new EU treaty

The European Union said Friday that 26 of its 27 member countries are open to joining a new treaty tying their finances together to solve the euro crisis. Only Britain remains opposed, creating a deep rift in the union.  In marathon overnight talks, the 17 countries that use the euro gradually persuaded nearly all the others to consider joining the new treaty they would create. Some of those countries may face parliamentary opposition to the treaty, which would allow for unprecedented oversight of national budgets.  “Except for one, all are considering participation,” EU President Herman Van Rompuy told reporters after the summit ended. “I’m optimistic because I know it is going to be very close to 27.”  A document released near the end of a high-stakes EU summit Friday said the leaders of nine of the 10 EU countries that don’t use the euro “indicated the possibility to take part in this process after consulting their parliaments where appropriate.”  ”This is the breakthrough to the stability union,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel told a press conference after the summit.

EU leaders expressed disappointment that Britain stayed out.  French President Nicolas Sarkozy blamed the split on British Prime Minister David Cameron.  “David Cameron made a proposal that seemed to us unacceptable, a protocol to the treaty that would have exonerated the United Kingdom from a great number of financial service regulations,” Sarkozy said shortly before dawn, after what he called a “difficult” dinner meeting had dragged through the night.  Cameron defended his stance.  “What was on offer is not in Britain’s interest so I didn’t agree to it,” he said. “We’re not in the euro and I’m glad we’re not in the euro. We’re never going to join the euro and we’re never going to give up this kind of sovereignty that these countries are having to give up.”

MBA – no compensation changes please!

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) doesn’t want to see any changes to the mortgage servicing compensation.  In a letter to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) , the trade group said no one has made a compelling case for why the current model needs to be tweaked. MBA President and CEO David Stevens said the group agrees with the government that there is a need for improvements for all participants of the mortgage underwriting and securitization processes.  “However, we believe that any change to the current servicing compensation model is unnecessary to accomplish these goals,” he said.  In late September, the FHFA proposed two mortgage servicing compensation models.  The MBA believes dramatically changing residential servicing, origination, and secondary market operations serves no one, claiming “radical changes in any of the major structures underlying the existing TBA market could reduce liquidity in the TBA.”  “The world of residential mortgage servicing has undergone unprecedented stress over the course of the economic downturn,” Stevens said. “The current servicer compensation model is still the best approach and making radical changes, like the proposed ‘fee for service,’ will have dramatic impacts not just on originators, servicers and investors, but also on borrowers in both the costs they pay to get a mortgage and the support they receive from their servicers.”  The MBA prefers a cash reserve structure, which calls for deferring some existing fees to cover servicing costs for “catastrophic economic and default situations.”

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

************************************************************

Home prices fall

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities dropped 3.6% in September from the same month in 2010 after decreasing 3.8% in the year ended August, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 32 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected a 3% decrease.  “We continue to expect home prices to fall through mid- 2012,” said Anika Khan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “We still have an oversupply of existing homes, and distressed transactions continue to drive down home prices.”  Estimates in the Bloomberg survey for the price change ranged from declines of 2.7% to 3.9%. The Case- Shiller index is based on a three-month average, which means the September data were influenced by transactions in July and August.  The year-over-year decline in September was the smallest in seven months.  Home prices adjusted for seasonal variations fell 0.6% in September from the prior month, the biggest decrease since March, after falling 0.3% in August. Unadjusted prices also decreased 0.6% from August as 17 of 20 cities showed declines.

Only Washington, New York and Portland, Oregon, showed gains.  Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix posted new post peak lows in September, the report showed.  The year-over-year gauge provides better indications of trends in prices, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller group. The panel includes Karl Case and Robert Shiller, the economists who created the index.  Eighteen of the 20 cities in the index showed a year-over- year decline, led by a 9.8% drop in Atlanta.  Detroit showed the biggest year-over-year increase, with prices rising 3.7% in the 12 months to September. Property values in Washington were up 1%.  Nationally, prices decreased 3.9% in the third quarter from the same time in 2010. They increased 0.1% from the previous three months before seasonal adjustment and dropped 1.2% after taking those changes into account.

MF Global money pops up in Britain

About $200 million in customer money that vanished from MF Global is believed to have surfaced at JPMorgan Chase in Britain, according to people briefed on the matter. The discovery could be the most significant breakthrough in a month long hunt for the missing funds.  During MF Global’s last chaotic days, the brokerage firm overdrew an account at JPMorgan, according to another person who is close to the matter. Some investigators now believe the firm used customer funds to patch at least some of the hole, which would have been a significant breach of federal law.  MF Global transferred the roughly $200 million in the days before the firm filed for bankruptcy, said the people, who requested anonymity because the investigation was incomplete.  Some investigators suspect that the transfer to JPMorgan was the first major misuse of customer money at MF Global, the commodity brokerage powerhouse once run by Jon S. Corzine, the former Democratic governor of New Jersey. Authorities are also looking into whether JPMorgan initially questioned the source of the cash and sought proof from MF Global that it was complying with regulations, one of the people said.  The authorities believe MF Global failed to give JPMorgan full documentation for the cash, the people briefed on the matter said. But the bank’s concerns hardly mattered because the money had already been transferred to the account in Britain. It is unclear whether investigators can recover the $200 million.

New home sales up, prices down

New home sales rose in October, but are still trending to a low annual rate, according to data released Monday by the US Commerce Department.  Sales of new single-family homes last month were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000. That’s up slightly more than 1% from the revised September rate and nearly 9% above the October 2010 rate.  The median sales price of new homes sold in October was $212,300, below the $213,300 price in September but up from $204,200 in October 2010. The average sales price of $242,300 in October was down from $248,400 in September and from $254,400 in October 2010.  But, as IHS economist Patrick Newport noted, the market conditions for single-family home sales are bad.

Tight credit for builders, falling home prices and high foreclosures and delinquencies continue to hold the new-home market back.  “This is shaping up to be the worst year on record for the single-family housing market,” Newport said in a note. He cited that data for new home sales, single-family housing starts and single-family permits will set record lows this year.  Builders say there has been marginal improvement in some markets with better economies.  “While this trend is encouraging, overall sales activity is still well below normal due to the effects of overly tight credit conditions for builders and buyers, the continued flow of distressed properties on the market and inaccurate appraisal values on new homes,” said Bob Nielsen, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders.  There was a 6.3-month supply of new homes at the current sales pace in October.

US deficit deadlock similar to Europe, Barney Frank blames you

Europe’s deepening debt crisis is echoed in the United States by the inability of President Barack Obama and Congress to strike a bipartisan deficit deal.  On both sides of the Atlantic, leaders are having a hard time making tough, unpopular decisions. And things come together only at the very last minute, if at all, while the global economy hangs in the balance.  What happens in Europe is important to Americans. It has already taken an economic toll on US exporters — from reduced consumer demand in Europe for their products and from a rising dollar against the euro.  The worse things get in Europe, the more likely the contagion could spread to the US  Right now, the situation looks much graver overseas, with Europe teetering on the brink of a new recession.  With their backs against the wall, and with some economists warning of an imminent collapse of the euro, European leaders are racing to find a grand bargain to keep their monetary union from fracturing. But time is running out.

The United States isn’t quite that close to the edge of the cliff. Last week’s failure of the so-called congressional supercommittee to strike a deficit-cutting deal to lower future government borrowing underscored that Congress is bogged down in inter-party strife, likely meaning that no deal on jobs, spending and taxes is likely until after next November’s presidential election.  The two parties were blaming each other for the deadlock. Republicans slammed Democrat Obama for not doing more to prod an agreement.  And one top Democratic lawmaker even suggested that “the public cannot be totally absolved of responsibility.”  “They elected us,” Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., senior Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee said at a news conference Monday called to announce his retirement after more than three decades.  “Congress is not some autonomous entity that parachuted through the dome,” Frank said. “We were elected.”

Olick – new homes face pressure

“Sales of newly built homes are bouncing around a bottom, but prices are now at the lowest level of the year.  The median price of a new home came in at $212,300 for October, which is up from a year ago, but October of 2010 represented the big fall after the end of the home buyer tax credit.  The fact that October of this year saw the lowest price of the year so far is not good news going forward. What this means for the nation’s big builders have the analysts split.  ‘While we continue to believe prices may fall slightly from current levels, we believe pricing is essentially near its trough, and therefore should result in minimal impairment charges for the builders in 2012,’ writes Michael Rehaut at JP Morgan.  ‘New home prices are still at a 31% premium to existing home prices (vs. 14% historically), and given the high level of existing home inventory, we expect pricing pressure to remain,’ notes Dan Oppenheim at Credit Suisse.  New home sales are still at half the normal historical levels, and they are in for more fierce competition in 2012, specifically, foreclosures.

Banks are ramping up the repossessions again after year-long delays in the process, and that will mean inventories of distressed properties will rise.  These rock-bottom priced properties may or may not compete with new construction, depending on geographical area, but they will bring overall existing home prices down, and that will do nothing good for consumer confidence.  Inventories of new construction are approaching healthy, at just a 6.3 month supply (far better than that of existing homes at an 8 month supply). In raw numbers, they are actually at a record low of 162,000 (or at least since the data tracking began in 1963). Unfortunately, that’s not helping prices in and of itself.  ‘The bigger picture is that house prices are still being weighed down by the huge number of discounted existing homes coming onto the market,’ writes Paul Diggle at Capital Economics. ‘New home sales will also be held back by the weaker pace of economic growth that we are expecting next year. Admittedly, at some point activity in the new homes market will have to rebound to reflect underlying population growth. But that is still a few years away yet.’

So will the big builders continue to slash prices in order to compete?  Can they?  ‘Commodity prices remain elevated, and that doesn’t give builders much room to cut prices too much without really sacrificing profit margins again,’ says Peter Boockvar at Miller Tabak.  That’s why analysts are being very selective in their approach to the home builders and are ‘muting’ their outlooks for 2012.  ‘This is shaping out to be the worst year on record for the single-family housing market,’ says Patrick Newport at IHS Global Insight. ‘New home sales (data start in 1963), single-family housing starts (data start in 1959) and single-family permits (data starts in 1960) will all set record lows in 2011. Existing home sales may avoid the cellar, but only because a third of them are selling at ‘distressed’ prices.’  So what will get housing back on a strong foundation for growth? All the analysts agree: Job growth.”

US credit outlook downgraded

In the wake of the Congressional debt committee’s failure to find agreement, Fitch Ratings affirmed the United States’ top-notch credit rating on Monday but revised its rating outlook to “negative,” down from “stable.”  That change indicates that the agency sees a slightly greater than 50% chance that it will downgrade the country’s AAA rating within two years.  In affirming the rating, Fitch said the US economy is still the most productive in the world and the government has “unparalleled financing flexibility.”

The US bond market is the largest and most liquid in the world and the dollar is the global reserve currency — held by banks worldwide and a staple in international transactions.  But the agency cited its “declining confidence” that Congress would enact “timely fiscal measures” to put the country’s public finances on a sustainable path.  It also noted that a worsening in the economic outlook would further mar the fiscal picture.  As it is, Fitch estimates that US debt held by the public will hit 90% of GDP by the end of the decade, up from about 70% today. And interest payments on the debt would likely consume more than 20% of tax revenues.  “Failure to reach agreement in 2013 on a credible deficit reduction plan and a worsening of the economic and fiscal outlook would likely result in a downgrade of the US sovereign rating,” the agency said in a written statement.  Last week, the two other major ratings agencies — Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s — said the so-called super committee’s failure did not in itself affect their credit ratings for the country.  Moody’s affirmed its AAA rating. And S&P, which downgraded its US credit rating this summer because of the “political brinksmanship“ in the debt ceiling debate, said it would keep its rating for US bonds at AA-plus for now.  Both agencies had previously assigned a negative outlook on their US rating.

NAR – growth in commercial markets next year?

Commercial real estate markets have been relatively flat this year, but improving fundamentals mean a more positive trend is expected in 2012, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data for metro areas were provided by REIS, Inc., a source of commercial real estate performance information.

-  Office Markets
Vacancy rates in the office sector are expected to fall from 16.7% in the current quarter to 16.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012.  The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates presently are Washington, D.C., with a vacancy rate of 9.3%; New York City, at 10.3%; and New Orleans, 12.8%.  After rising 1.4% in 2011, office rents are forecast to increase another 1.7% next year. Net absorption of office space in the US, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, is projected to be 20.2 million square feet this year and 31.7 million in 2012.

-  Industrial Markets
Industrial vacancy rates are projected to decline from 12.3% in the fourth quarter of this year to 11.7% in the fourth quarter of 2012.  The areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates currently are Los Angeles, with a vacancy rate of 5.2%; Orange County, Calif., 5.7%; and Miami at 8.4%.  Annual industrial rent should decline 0.5% this year before rising 1.8% in 2012. Net absorption of industrial space nationally should be 62.0 million square feet this year and 41.2 million in 2012.

-  Retail Markets
Retail vacancy rates are likely to decline from 12.6% in the current quarter to 11.8% in the fourth quarter of 2012.  Presently, markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates include San Francisco, 3.7%; Long Island, N.Y., and Northern New Jersey, each at 5.7%; and San Jose, Calif., at 6.0%.  Average retail rent is seen to decline 0.2% this year, and then rise 0.7% in 2012. Net absorption of retail space is seen at 1.2 million square feet this year and 13.5 million in 2012.

-  Multifamily Markets
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is expected to see vacancy rates drop from 5.0% in the fourth quarter to 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012; multifamily vacancy rates below 5% generally are considered a landlord’s market with demand justifying higher rents.  Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates currently are Minneapolis, 2.4%; New York City, 2.7%; and Portland, Ore., at 2.8%.

Average apartment rent is projected to rise 2.5% this year and another 3.5% in 2012. Multifamily net absorption is likely to be 238,400 units this year and 126,600 in 2012.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

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************************************************************

WSJ – now is the best time to buy

The Wall Street Journal’s third-quarter survey of housing-market conditions in 28 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas found that home values declined in all but five markets compared with the second quarter, according to data from Zillow Inc. Meanwhile, rent levels have risen briskly across the country and mortgage rates, hovering around 4%, are the lowest in six decades.  As a result, monthly mortgage payments on the median priced home—including taxes and insurance—are lower than the average rent levels in 12 metro areas, according to data compiled for The Wall Street Journal by Marcus & Millichap, a real-estate brokerage that tracked 27 metro areas. It remains less expensive to rent than to buy in 15 cities. In Atlanta, which had the most favorable values for owning versus renting, the monthly payment on the average home was $539 assuming a 20% down payment during the third quarter. By contrast, the average asking rent stood at $840, according to the Marcus & Millichap data.

Other cities where owning is now cheaper than renting include Detroit, Minneapolis, Orlando, Las Vegas, Miami, St. Louis, Chicago and Phoenix.  Home ownership is also looking more affordable because after several years of declines, apartment rents will rise by around 4% this year, says Mr. Nadji. He says rents are poised “to pick up even more momentum across the country next year.”  Even cities where it is still cheaper to rent than own have seen big boosts in affordability. In San Diego, the monthly cost of owning a home has averaged around 83% more than renting over the past two decades. During the third quarter, owning was 22% more expensive than renting, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

Mortgage rates are a big reason why affordability continues to improve. In 1991, a $1,700 mortgage payment allowed a borrower to take out a $200,000 mortgage. Today, it gets that homeowner a $350,000 loan, a 77% increase in borrowing power, says Dan Green, a loan officer with Waterstone Mortgage, in Cincinnati. Affordability could continue to improve as prices slide even lower in coming months. Price declines are likely because the share of “distressed” sales, including bank-owned foreclosures, tend to rise in the winter, when traditional sales activity cools. Banks are often much quicker to cut prices to unload properties quickly, which means that the greater the share of “distressed” sales, the more prices tend to fall.

One hopeful sign is that inventories have fallen from their bloated levels of one year ago. All 28 cities in The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey saw homes listed for sale fall from one year ago, when markets were reeling with a substantial overhang of properties amid a big drop in demand. Visible inventory was down sharply in several markets, including by almost half in Miami and 40% in Phoenix.  Low inventories have spurred more bidding wars at the low end of the market as investors compete for homes that they can convert into rentals. In Sacramento, it would take just 2.5 months to sell the listed inventory at the current sales pace. Las Vegas has a 4.3 month supply of inventory, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. But the potential supply of homes is much bigger because banks have yet to process hundreds of thousands of potential foreclosures.

Black Friday sales boom

Sales rose an estimated 6.6% to a record $11.4 billion on Black Friday, typically the busiest shopping day of the year for Americans, while the traffic at stores rose 5.1%, according to ShopperTrak.  The day’s sales growth was the strongest percentage gain since 2007, when sales rose 8.3% on the day after Thanksgiving, said Ed Marcheselli, chief marketing officer at ShopperTrak, which monitors retail traffic.  As usual on Black Friday, retailers used deep discounts on popular items such as toys and televisions to lure shoppers as the holiday shopping season began. Some started sales as early as Thanksgiving night to get a jump on their rivals.  While the Black Friday rise was a “positive indicator for the holiday season,” Marcheselli cautioned it is just one day.  ShopperTrak has estimated that sales for all of November and December will rise about 3 to 3.3%.  The National Retail Federation, an industry trade group, expects 152 million people to hit stores this weekend, up 10.1% from last year. But it expects sales for the full November-December holiday season to rise just 2.8%, well below the rise of 5.2% in 2010.

DSNews.com – mortgage rates down

The 30-year fixed-mortgage rate has averaged at or below 4% for four consecutive weeks now. For the week ending November 23, Freddie Mac’s study puts the average 30-year rate at 3.98% (0.7 point). That’s down from 4.00% the week prior.  The only time Freddie has recorded a lower 30-year rate average was for the week of October 6, 2011, when it came in at 3.94%.   The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage posted an average of 3.30% (0.7 point) in Freddie Mac’s latest survey. It was 3.31% last week.  The 5-year ARM is averaging 2.91% (0.6 point), down from 2.97% last week. The 1-year ARM slipped from 2.98% to 2.79% (0.6 point) this week. Rates for both ARM terms are the lowest ever recorded by the GSE.  “Mortgage rates eased slightly this week with fixed-rate loans hovering above all-time lows and ARMs reaching a new nadir,” commented Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.  He says the high-degree of home-buyer affordability in recent months translated into a 1.4% pickup in existing home sales during October, as measured by the National Association of Realtors.  Nothaft noted, however, that the trade group also reported a sharp increase in contract cancellations in October, with a third of its members seeing at least one contract fall through during the month. This “restrained sales from achieving a stronger rebound,” according to Nothaft.

Morgan Stanley cuts growth forecast

The continuing uncertainty over debt troubles in Europe and the US has increased the downside risks to global growth, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank downgraded its forecast for global growth next year to 3.5% from 3.8%, just three and a half months after it cut its forecast from 4.5%.  “Our economics team in Europe now expects a recession in Europe while the US economy is expected to continue growing below its trend,” said Morgan Stanley.  It also cut its 2012 growth estimate for Asia ex-Japan to 6.9% from 7.3%.  “Since we downgraded our regional growth outlook in August 2011, we have been constantly worried about the increasing downside risks to growth. In addition to further evidence of weakening domestic demand, the external environment in Europe has made us more concerned about the region’s growth outlook,” economists at Morgan Stanley said in a research note today.

Even Asia, which has so far escaped the global slowdown is likely to be dragged down, according to Morgan Stanley.  The bank noted that the regions’ deep trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world made it vulnerable to deep shocks in the global economy. “The prospects of further fiscal tightening and weaker domestic demand in Europe will translate into weaker external demand growth for the region,” it said. “The slowdown in final demand in the developed world will likely be amplified on the region’s cross-border production network, leading to a significant slowdown in export growth across the region in 2012.”  Morgan Stanley noted this was already starting to happen. Asian exports, which “have been flat on a sequential basis since Mar 2011, have also begun to decline on a sequential basis in the last two months.” Asia’s domestic indicators, such as auto, retail and property sales as well as manufacturing activity (PMI) were also pointing to a deceleration, the bank said.

Home prices to fall another 6%?

Analysts with JPMorgan claim home prices will fall another 4% by year-end, resulting in a 35% peak-to-trough decline once a bottom is reached.  When looking at just non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities, the report says “market volatility, lack of liquidity and stagnant fundamentals” will remain drags on the entire segment in 2012. In non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities, the authors also noted slowing activity on the modification front. “We continue to recommend fixed-rates and select seasoned hybrids,” the report said.  The JPMorgan report also is careful when forecasting the performance of commercial mortgage-backed securities in 2012.  “Our outlook for 2012 is cautiously optimistic, as market conditions continue to weigh on what we believe remains cheap fundamental credit risk. Private label and agency CMBS supply should reach $35 billion and $32 billion, respectively,” the report said.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

************************************************************

Home prices headed for triple-dip?

According to Fiserv, a financial analytics company, home values are expected to fall another 3.6% by next June, pushing them to a new low of 35% below the peak reached in early 2006 and marking a triple dip in prices.  Several factors will be working against the housing market in the upcoming months, including an increase in foreclosure activity and sustained high unemployment, explained David Stiff, Fiserv’s chief economist.  Should home values meet Fiserv’s expectations, it would make it the third (and lowest) trough for home prices since the housing bubble burst.  The first post-bubble bottom was hit in 2009, when prices fell to 31% below peak. The First-Time Homebuyer Credit helped perk prices up by mid-2010, but by the time the credit expired, prices fell again.  In the second dip, which was reached last winter, prices were down 33%before staging a mild rally that was artificially spurred as banks slowed the processing of foreclosures following the robo-signing scandal, which found that loan servicers were rapidly signing foreclosures without properly vetting them.  Now that the scandal is mostly resolved, lenders are speeding more cases through the foreclosure pipeline and back onto the market, weighing on home prices even further.

Many of the regions that will be hardest hit were already beaten up during the previous two dips.  Naples, Fla., for example, is expected to take the biggest hit of any metro area, a price drop of another 18.9% by the end of next June, according to Fiserv. Home prices in the area have already fallen 61% from the peak.  Other cities expected to be hit hard include the not-so-lucky Las Vegas, which is expected to see home prices fall another 15.9% for a total loss of 66%; Riverside, Calif., is projected to fall another 14.8% (for a total decline of 61%); Miami is expected to decline by 13.2% (total loss: 57%), and Salinas, Calif. could drop by another 13% (for a total loss of 66%).  There will be some winners, however, led by Madera, Calif. and Carson City, Nev., which will each gain 15.5%. That’s some consolation for hard-hit residents: The average home in each of these metro areas has lost more than half its value.  Other metro areas Fiserv expects to recover nicely are Yuma, Ariz. (up 9.5%), Yuba City, Calif. (9.2%) and Farmington, N.M. (8.3%).  Many of the markets that will record the biggest increases are vacation or retirement communities that had taken some of the biggest hits during the bust.  The biggest “winner” will be Ocala, Fla., with a 22.4% spike for the 12 months ending June 30, 2013. Ocala was one of the hardest hit communities in the US over the past several years, with home prices falling some 50%.  Others anticipated gainers will be Napa, Calif., which Fiserv projects will improve by 20.9% over that same period; Panama City, Fla. (an estimated 18.2% jump) and Bremerton, Wash. and Carson City, Nev. (both expected to see home prices climb 17.9%).  Some cities will continue to fade, however. Fort Lauderdale, Fla.’s forecast is for a 9.2% drop through next June and another 6.7% the 12 months after that. Its neighbor, Miami, will endure 13.5% and 5.2% declines, respectively.

Fed panel divided

When the Federal Reserve’s policymaking committee meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, five of the 10 voting members will arrive in open disagreement with the chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, about the direction of monetary policy. Three conservative members say the Fed has already done too much. Two liberals say the Fed needs to do much more.  But it is still the chairman who determines whether the central bank should expand its campaign to stimulate growth for the third time since August, and lately Mr. Bernanke has been focused on an old theme: communicating the benefits of existing policies in order to increase their impact.  The Fed “continues to explore ways to further increase transparency about its forecasts and policy plans,” Mr. Bernanke said in a mid-October speech in Boston. Later he described improved communication as perhaps the main lesson that makers of monetary policy should take from the financial crisis.

Miami pending sales uneven

Pending home sales in two Miami counties are heading in opposite directions.  Cumulative pending home sales, which include single-family homes and condominiums, in Miami-Dade County rose 11% in September to 11,296 from 10,219 a year earlier, according to the Miami Association of Realtors and the Multiple Listing Service systems.  The September figure is 5% below the previous month’s total of 11,915.  Increased pending sales are indications of increased future sales. A sale is listed as pending when a contract is signed but the transaction has yet to closed, which normally takes one to two months.  MAR chairman Jack H. Levine said rising pending sales mirror the robust closed sales activity the organization continues to experience in South Florida.  “Strong demand from domestic, international and second home buyers is not diminishing, as buyers and investors take advantage of the amazing opportunities currently available in the Miami real estate market,” he added.  However, in Broward County, cumulative pending home sales fell .3% to 7,693 from 7,719 a year earlier, and dropped 3% from the previous month when there were 7,894 pending sales, according to the Broward Council of MAR and the MLS systems.  Nationally, the Pending Home Sales Index rose 6.4% to 84.5 in September from 79.4 a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. The September index is 4.6% lower than the 88.6 index reported the month before.

Oil down

Oil prices fell below $93 a barrel Monday in Asia as investors mulled whether slowing global economic growth justified a surge in crude this month.  Benchmark crude for December delivery was down 79 cents at $92.53 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 64 cents to settle at $93.32 in New York on Friday.  Brent crude was down 75 cents at $109.6 a barrel on the ICE Futures Exchange in London.  Crude has soared this month — up 24% from $75 on Oct. 4 — amid investor expectations European leaders would soon announce a plan to contain Greece’s debt crisis. Last week, EU policymakers said they agreed to lower Greece’s debt level over the next decade and require bondholders to accept 50% losses.  Traders are now turning their attention to the global economy, especially to weak growth in the U.S and Europe.  Investors will be closely watching the latest employment figures scheduled to be announced Friday for signs about the strength of the US economy. Gross domestic product grew 2.5% in the third quarter, allaying fears of a recession, but consumer confidence is at its lowest in almost three years.  Some analysts expect the jump in crude in October will push gasoline prices higher and undermine demand.  “The market has come a very long way in a very short amount of time,” energy trader and consultant The Schork Group said in a report. “That is not to say it cannot go even farther, but it is to say that it has certainly gone far enough to start pinching consumers.”  In other Nymex trading, heating oil fell 2.5 cents to $3.04 per gallon and gasoline futures slid 1.9 cents at $2.63 per gallon. Natural gas advanced 1.8 cents at $3.94 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Olick – be careful with rentals

“I thought I would share a response to yesterday’s blog post on the Obama Administration considering selling Fannie and Freddie’s foreclosed properties in bulk to private investors.  Rick Sharga used to work, and speak, for RealtyTrac, a well-known foreclosure sale site and tracker. He recently jumped ship to join Carrington Mortgage Holdings, which does everything from asset management to residential mortgage origination, servicing and property management.  Here’s Sharga’s take:

‘Your post today made its way through our offices pretty quickly, as we’ve been doing REO rentals for several thousand properties in our own portfolio for several years, and as part of Fannie Mae’s Tenant-in-Place program. We’d probably be one of the companies you mentioned who would be interested in buying some of the GSE REO assets and turning them into rental units for some period of time. But it’s not an investment to enter into lightly.

(Note: REO’s: Real estate-owned properties are those acquired by a lender, whether a bank or the government, after an unsuccessful auction attempt.)

This isn’t the slam dunk success story for investors that some of your sources suggested today. Rental margins can be extremely thin, the probability of success varies wildly from market to market, and an investor who doesn’t understand how the financials work could be in for a rather rude awakening. Managing a large portfolio of properties across the country isn’t exactly a walk in the park either, and there aren’t a lot of companies with the infrastructure to support that sort of initiative right now.

We do think that the idea makes a lot of sense from an overall housing market perspective. Done properly, it will remove a large number of distressed properties from sales inventory (and from the dreaded shadow inventory) which should help to stabilize home prices – and, in some markets, help stabilize rapidly-rising rental rates by adding rental inventory. It would take large sums of capital that are currently on the sidelines, and put them to use, which would be a boon for the economy. It would allow the GSEs to cap their losses on these REOs, and protect the values of their portfolios of performing loans. To your point, it would clear up much of the uncertainty in the housing market today by removing the overhang of distressed properties. And the timing is right, as there appears to be a growing demand for rental housing, while many potential buyers repair their credit, try to save money for a down payment, or just decide to wait out the market before they buy.  It’s not a panacea, but could be one of the best ideas to come along since the foreclosure tsunami hit. We’re just not sure how big a wave of investors we’re likely to see once people actually do the math.’”

CMBS servicers worried

With some 13% of commercial mortgage-backed securities in special servicing, the largest players in the market say they are bracing for bigger loans and more volume in their pipelines.  In addition, at least one panelist predicted more delinquent CMBS would move to REO status.  The comments were made during a panel discussion on CMBS special servicing at the Urban Land Institute’s annual conference in Los Angeles. The four panelists, from LNR Asset Services, Midland Loan Services Inc., CWCapital Asset Management LLC and C-III Asset Management LLC, hold 90% of all CMBS assets held in special servicing.  Significant numbers of large balance loans will be maturing over the next five years, with a good portion of those in 2012, panelists said. Large balance loans also bring with them more complexity as they come highly structured with mezzanine and subordinated positions.

Unlike major residential servicers, who have agreed to stop dual-tracking by having loans in foreclosure while also seeking a workout, CMBS special servicers said they follow a dual-track to exert pressure on the borrower to resolve the loan’s issues.  Their arsenal to resolve delinquent CMBS includes interest-only loans for a set period of time, loan extensions, principal write-downs and new structures that include an equity infusion by the borrower or a partner the borrower brings to the table.  Smaller loans — typically those under $5 million — tend to involve a less sophisticated and less financially secure borrower and are more likely to be sold as notes or end up as REO. Larger loans may have a Wall Street-backed borrower who has the ability to put equity into the deal and make it work. Larger loans also tend to be backed by property that piques the interest of investors on the prowl for opportunities, panelists said.

Affiliates of special servicers have the ability to bid on properties they are servicing, but all four panelists said that is rare. But the option for related entities to buy assets under the care of special servicers raised several questions from audience members over inside dealing or unfair advantages.  As of September, $618 CMBS were outstanding with 9.63% delinquent by 60 days or more. Of that 13% or 4,400 CMBS real estate loans are in special servicing, equaling a loan balance of $82 billion, according to statistics provided by attorney firm Ballard Spahr.  Fitch Ratings said cumulative CMBS defaults hit 12.4% in the third quarter. To date, CMBS defaults are half of what they were for the entire year of 2010, suggesting the rate is slowing down, according to Fitch.  Office properties represent 29% of specially serviced CMBS, up nearly 17% since 2009. A significant amount of the underlying collateral is in the New York area (24%) with the Deep South also holding a significant amount (23%).  CMBS is benefiting from tighter spreads, according to a note put out Friday by Trepp. On Thursday, spreads on super seniors fell 20 to 35 basis points.  Loans are not landing with special servicers by surprise. Some come in before default if problems are identified. An example would be a large office complex or retail center that loses a major tenant. Disposition of problem loans typically takes about 18 months, panelists said.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Forward this e-mail to your friends!
Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

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************************************************************

New foreclosure plan

Big investors are showing interest in an evolving Obama administration plan to sell off foreclosed homes, although the government will have to make the offer sweet enough to coax private funds. The White House is assessing how best to encourage private companies and investors to snap up foreclosed properties held by the government and convert them into rentals. Officials want private partners to take over as much as $30 billion in single-family properties that are currently on the books of government-run Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration. Several money managers with large fixed income funds are interested, according to sources, and a request for ideas on how to construct a program received nearly 4,000 responses. The foreclosure conversion program would come as the next step to complement other government supports for housing, including an expanded refinance program announced on Monday.

The main question for prospective investors, which include broker-dealers and firms already overseeing similar rental programs, is the type of financing the government will make available—an issue officials are still struggling with. “In order to get a better bid, there has to be some incentive involved to get qualified investors involved,” said Ron D’Vari, co-founder and chief executive of NewOak Capital. “The reality is not a lack of interest, but so far it looks like a lack of financing.” Incentives could include low interest rates, tax benefits or some type of rental assistance, said D’Vari, a portfolio adviser who has been involved in mini-bulk auctions of real estate-owned properties, or REOs, in California. REO properties are those acquired by a lender, whether a bank or the government, after an unsuccessful auction attempt. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA own about 250,000 properties, close to a third of the country’s REO pool.

One key challenge would be finding big enough blocks of properties in specific geographic areas that could be sold at one time. Analysts say this is what it would take to make the program attractive to large institutional investors. The transaction and liability costs property managers will face as they try to bring deserted units back up to code also pose a hurdle. The government also needs to determine how it will protect taxpayers, and it might explore ways to pair up with investors and allow Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA to keep some type of an ownership stake in the rental properties. A public-private partnership, somewhat along the lines of a program the Treasury tried to use to soak up toxic bank assets during the financial crisis, would allow the government to gain from the sales. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA have already undertaken some small efforts to reduce the backlog of foreclosed homes. They have donated a few vacant properties for demolition and have held some small auctions. Having already received $141 billion in taxpayer support since being seized by the government in 2008, Fannie Mae and Freddie are under enormous pressure to make sure they maximize the returns from the properties they hold. “This has got to be thought out. Fannie and Freddie would need to assess if they are getting the return they need from a rental,” said Ken H. Johnson, a real estate professor at Florida International University. Johnson said one way to get over the hurdle would be for the two agencies to be given an explicit mission of market stabilization.

2.5% growth, jobless claims hold steady

US economic growth increased at its fastest in a year in the third quarter as consumers and businesses set aside fears about the recovery and stepped up spending, creating momentum that could carry into the final three months of the year. At the same time, slightly fewer people sought unemployment benefits last week, though level remains elevated above 400,000. Though part of the increase came from the reversal of temporary factors that had restrained growth, the expansion was a welcome relief for an economy that looked on the brink of recession just weeks ago. U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5% annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said in its first estimate on Thursday. That was a big acceleration from the 1.3% pace in the April-June quarter and matched economists’ expectations. Consumer spending in the last quarter was the strongest since the fourth quarter of 2010, while business investment spending was the fastest in more than a year. Even though consumer spending was stronger, businesses were slow in stocking up their warehouses. The peppier spending and a slower pace of inventory accumulation by businesses will lay a base for a solid fourth quarter, but a slowdown in Europe and the exhaustion of pent-up U.S. demand could leave a weak spot early in 2012. And the recovery’s pace is still too weak to lower a jobless rate that has been stuck above 9% for five straight months.

Olick – new sales increase, prices tank

“Sales of newly built homes in September came in well over expectations, and stocks of the big builders took a little tick up on the news. They then dropped off pretty precipitously, as analysts weighed in on what is behind that nice headline number. First of all, these particular monthly numbers are based on signed contracts to buy a home, not closings, which provide the numbers for existing home sales. This data set is extremely volatile due to how small the survey pool is. And then of course you have these huge seasonal adjustments, which are important given housing’s distinct seasonality, but they can really skew the reality. So, the headline number is that sales (signed contracts) rose 5.7% from a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 296,000 in August to 313,000 in September. Take out the seasonal adjustment, and don’t annualize (the expectation of how many homes will sell this year based on the monthly rate) and according to the report, builders sold 25,000 homes in August and 25,000 homes in September. No change. The good news is that builders usually sell fewer homes in September than August, and they sold the same, hence the seasonal bump up, the bad news is that 25,000 is a pitifully low number of sales, actually tying a record low.

We can haggle over sales numbers ’til the cows come home (if their home isn’t in foreclosure), but we really need to focus on the pricing numbers. The price of a newly built home fell 10.4% in September year over year to $204,400.00, which is about $200 higher than the low of 2003. Builders are being forced to compete with existing home sale prices, one third of which are distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales). The median existing home sale price in September was $165,400, so that’s still a pretty big premium. Unfortunately, given the high cost of materials these days and difficulty in obtaining construction loans, builders take every dollar drop pretty hard. ‘The pricing issue would generally hit everyone and would result in lower margins (and some additional impairments),’ notes Dan Oppenheim at Credit Suisse. Of course the pricing numbers also have noise in them. ‘Those particular price figures are not adjusted for the mix of new homes being built, so the rate of decline probably also reflects the switch to building smaller homes rather than the so-called ‘McMansions’ that were popular during the boom years,’ writes Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics, who says a turnaround in the new home market may still be a couple of years away.”

Will the super-committee slow spending this Christmas?
The Super Committee has been negotiating behind closed doors since September, and they have until Nov. 23 — that’s the day before Thanksgiving — to reach an agreement on at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction measures. Some retail experts fear that further political gridlock in Washington will make American consumers even more hesitant to spend during the busiest shopping period of the year. When the Super Committee was forged out of the debate on whether to raise the debt ceiling, consumers reigned in spending. One of the problems plaguing retailers is a lack of exciting new products to inspire consumers to shop, says Marshal Cohen, chief industry analyst at NPD Group. “There is almost nothing new…to get the consumer excited beyond just the traditional holiday categories,” Cohen says. Against this backdrop, the political discussions could create a big distraction for consumers. And that’s something retailers don’t want when most analysts, including Cohen, expect marginal growth at best this holiday season. It also may be yet another reason for consumers to be downbeat. Numerous consumer surveys have shown that consumers are worried about the economy and about their rising household expenses. One of the latest, a survey conducted by Deloitte, showed that two-thirds of consumers expect the economy to stay the same or weaken next year. As a result many consumers reported that they would be trimming their gift list and 42% said they planned to spend less this year.

Underwater mortgages in Las Vegas fall further

The September median home price in Las Vegas fell 11.5% from one year ago and remains 63% below the peak, according to analytics firm DataQuick. A home that sold for $312,000 during the peak of the housing bubble in November 2006 is now worth $115,000. September was the 12th straight month the median home price fell from the year before. The decline has fallen to levels not seen since the mid-1990s, DataQuick said. “This can be attributed to several factors: home price depreciation; robust sales of low-cost foreclosures; robust sales to investors, who mainly target low-cost properties; extraordinarily low new-home sales (new homes tend to sell for more than resale homes); and higher-than-usual condo resales (condos tend to be the least expensive homes),” DataQuick said.

President Obama gave a speech Monday in Vegas, promoting changes to help more underwater borrowers refinance announced the same day. The Federal Housing Finance Agency will waive some representation and warranty risk, appraisal requirements, and negative equity caps for the Home Affordable Refinance Program. How effective the program is remains in question for the nearly 4 million Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowers underwater. In Vegas, 80% of the local homeowners owe more on their mortgage than the home is worth, according to RealtyTrac. Principal reduction remains the largest tool yet to be taken up by the largest banks or by any government agency on a large scale to combat the negative equity problem in the U.S.

Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said principal reduction will be a major function of the still pending attorneys general settlement with the largest mortgage servicers. Many Republican AGs and lawmakers say such lengths would only promote strategic default, not entice more people to stay current on their mortgage. Meanwhile, the number of default notices in Vegas increased 190% from July to August, according to DataQuick. More than 4,700 default notices were filed, led by Bank of America, the same findings states along the West Coast found. “It is unclear whether the higher levels of NODs seen in August and September are the beginning of a longer-term upward trend in default filings, which could mean far more distressed properties on the market and more downward pressure on home prices,” DataQuick said.

See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.
All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:
Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top
Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-
foreclosure expert, he oversees more than
100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing
and rapid reselling of distressed homes. Owns
portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit
properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,
running 4 different offices, supporting over
420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help
thousands of investors make money in the
biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices
closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of
$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and
seminar leader for current trends and hot topics
in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and
Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

Forward this e-mail to your friends!

Then they can subscribe directly at the following link:

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com/

*** Join Chris’ Facebook Fan Page–>

http://www.mclaughlinchris.com

*** Follow Chris on Twitter–>

http://www.twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

************************************************************

MBA – mortgage applications up

Mortgage applications increased 1.3% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 7, 2011.   The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.3% compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index increased 1.3% from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1.1% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1.2% compared with the previous week and was 2.9% lower than the same week one year ago. The increases were driven mainly by the government loan category, with the Government Purchase index up 2.4% and Government Refinance index increasing 9.9%. The Conventional Purchase and Refinance indexes increased 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1.56%.  The four week moving average is down 0.51% for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 2.15% for the Refinance Index.  The refinance share of mortgage activity remained unchanged at 79.1% of total applications from the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6.0% from 6.4% of total applications from the previous week.  The average loan size of all loans for home purchase in the US was $210,863 in September 2011, down from $212,736 in August 2011. The average loan size for a refinance was $237,632, down from $241,323 in August.  The largest purchase loans were made in the Pacific region at $ 302,110. The largest refinance loans were also made in the Pacific region at $ 339,592.

Pennsylvania state capital declares bankruptcy

The Harrisburg, Pa., city council passed a resolution Tuesday night authorizing a Chapter 9 bankruptcy filing, a city official said today.  Harrisburg faces a $300 million debt crises tied to a project to revamp its incinerator and has been plagued with cash flow problems.  Mark Schwartz, the council’s attorney in this matter, said on Wednesday that the bankruptcy filing would give the city ”bargaining power” with its creditors and with the state, which is considering a takeover plan.  The bankruptcy court for the middle district of Pennsylvania confirmed on Wednesday it had received a faxed bankruptcy petition from Harrisburg, but that it has not been filed yet.

The state legislature is considering a bill that would call for an eventual takeover of the city and the forced implementation of a fiscal rescue plan.  In July, the city council rejected a state-approved rescue plan, which called on it to renegotiate labor deals, cut jobs, and sell or lease its most valuable assets, including the incinerator and parking garages.  In August, the council rejected a similar plan that had been crafted by Mayor Linda Thompson, saying that both plans were overly burdensome for Harrisburg residents and did not ask enough of the county, bondholders, and the bond insurer, Assured Guaranty.

MBA issues housing forecast

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects to see mortgage originations fall from an estimated $1.2 trillion in 2011 to $900 billion in 2012. The drop will be driven by a significant decline in refinance originations, while purchase originations will increase only slightly. The economy will see another year of anemic growth in 2012, and then will grow somewhat faster in 2013. Refinance originations are expected to fall despite low mortgage rates as economic uncertainty lingers and fewer eligible borrowers remain.  Following are the key points of the latest MBA forecast:

-  Real GDP growth will be 1.3% in 2011, which began with a dismal 0.4% growth in the first quarter and 1.3% growth in the second quarter. We expect the second half to average around 1.8%, but even that is on shaky ground, with a weak labor market, volatile financial markets, and looming risks of a spillover from the European debt crisis. We expect 2012 to continue in a similar fashion, showing growth of around 1.7%, as Europe enters a recession of its own and the US economy flirts with a shallow recession until midway through 2012. There should be a modest recovery in 2013 with growth reaching 2.4% for the year.
-  The unemployment rate will increase slowly until the second quarter of 2012, hitting 9.3%, from the current level of 9.1%. It is expected to be around 9.1% for 2011, 9.3% for 2012, and 9.1% for 2013. Even though both economic and job growth are in positive territory, they are still insufficient to lower the unemployment rate in the near term.
-  Fixed mortgage rates are expected to remain low by historical standards, finishing 2011 at around a 4.5% average for the year, falling slightly to 4.4% for 2012 and climbing back up to 4.9 by 2013.
-  Total existing home sales will stay around the 4.9 million unit pace for 2011 and 2012, before increasing slightly to 5.2 million units in 2013 as the broader economy recovers. The recovery in the new home sales will have a comparably slow start, and may well be slow for most of 2012, but will show some meaningful increases in 2013.
-  Home price measures that exclude distressed transactions have stabilized, and certain markets are showing year-over-year appreciation. FHFA’s national repeat transactions home price measure, which does not distinguish between distressed and non-distressed sales, will continue to decline before starting a reversal in mid to late 2012, but will vary by state and home value.
-  Purchase originations will likely decrease in 2011 from 2010, totaling $400 billion from an estimated $472 billion in 2010. Seeing as 2012 will likely be another year of slow economic growth, purchase originations will increase to slightly around $412 billion for the year. As the economy picks up a little more speed in 2013 and home sales and home prices also start to increase, purchase originations are expected to increase to $770 billion for the year.
-  Despite lower mortgage rates towards the end of the year, refinance originations in 2011 will be lower than in 2010, falling to $783 billion from an estimated $1.1 trillion, as there were fewer eligible borrowers left to refinance. We expect this “burnout” to continue through 2012 and 2013, even as rates remain below 5%, with refinance originations falling steadily to $495 billion and then $332 billion, respectively.

Oil up

Oil prices inched up above $86 a barrel Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar even as concerns persisted about the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the International Energy Agency slightly lowered its demand growth forecasts.  By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for November delivery was up 70 cents at $86.51 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 40 cents to settle at $85.81 in New York on Tuesday.  In London, Brent crude was up $1.23 to $111.96 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.  The euro gained on the dollar after the release of fresh data showing that industrial production in the 17 countries using the common European currency rose unexpectedly in August, easing concerns that the region was heading back into recession in the third quarter.

A weaker dollar tends to lift the price of commodities such as oil by making it cheaper for investors holding other currencies.  The euro was up to $1.3806 from $1.3669 late Monday in New York, while the dollar weakened to 76.58 yen from 76.66 yen.  The Paris-based IEA said it was now expecting global demand to rise to 89.2 million barrels a day this year — 1 million barrels more than in 2010 — and to 90.5 million barrels a day in 2012. Compared with last month’s forecasts, these revisions were lower by 50,000 barrels a day for 2011 and by 210,000 barrels a day for 2012.

DSNews.com – west coast foreclosures fall

New foreclosure actions in states along the country’s West Coast returned to levels in line with prior months during September, according to ForeclosureRadar, a California-based company that tracks every foreclosure in its five-state coverage area.  The leveling off in September follows a strong surge in foreclosure starts during the month of August in the western states of Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington, and puts new foreclosure tallies far below the numbers seen at the peak of each state’s foreclosure activity.

ForeclosureRadar reports California has seen a drop in activity of 56% since its peak, from 58,623 notice of default filings in March of 2009 to 25,778 today.  Arizona shows a similar swing in notice of trustee sale filings, from 14,722 in March of 2009 to 5,982 filings last month – a decrease of 59.4%.  Washington has experienced the greatest decline of all, with 71.5% fewer notice of trustee sale filings today than at their peak in June of 2009.

Foreclosure sales were mixed last month, with declines in Arizona, California, and Nevada, while Oregon and Washington both showed increases.  Despite declines in three of the five states, ForeclosureRadar notes that the percentage of foreclosure sales that went to third parties, typically investors, was at or near peak levels.  In California, third parties purchased a record 27.4% of all foreclosure sales last month.  In Arizona, that number was even higher at 38.3%, also a record.  Nevada was just shy of its record, set in August at 29.1%.  Sales to third parties in Washington were up 15.6%, a record for this year.  Oregon was the only state to show a decrease, down from 15.5% in July to 6.0% last month.  “While foreclosure activity returned to its normal course in September, we fully expect to see more volatility like we saw in August as banks continue to work in fits and starts through robo-signing and other issues,” said Sean O’Toole, founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar.  “It’s almost unfathomable that four years into this crisis there would still be so much uncertainty on how to best deal with the trillions in bad mortgage debt that was created during the credit bubble,” O’Toole added.

See you at the top!

Chris McLaughlin

**************

Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2011.

All Rights Reserved.

http://www.shortsalesriches.com

http://www.shortsalescoach.com

http://www.sixfigurebpo.com

http://www.reomillionaireclub.com

http://www.youtube.com/shortsalesriches

http://www.smartrealestatenews.com

(subscribe to this newsletter)

*************************************************

About the author:

Chris McLaughlin is widely known as America’s top

Real Estate Attorney and Investment Consultant.

* As the top Florida foreclosure and pre-

foreclosure expert, he oversees more than

100 short sale & REO closings each month

* Long-time authority on real estate investing

and rapid reselling of distressed homes.  Owns

portfolio of nearly 150 high-value, high-profit

properties

* Owner of one of Florida’s largest Real Estate firms,

running 4 different offices, supporting over

420 agents, uniquely positioning him to help

thousands of investors make money in the

biggest market opportunity ever!

* In 2010, Chris’ 4 Central Florida real estate offices

closed 2,786 sides for a closed sales volume of

$392,912,927!

* Highly sought-after speaker, consultant, and

seminar leader for current trends and hot topics

in Real Estate Investing, Entrepreneurship, and

Wealth Building

* Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/mclaughlinchris

* Join my Facebook Fan Page: http://www.mclaughlinchris.com