Bidding wars seen in markets for foreclosed homes
Real Estate News & Commentary by Chris McLaughlin, July 21, 2009
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Bidding wars seen in markets for foreclosed homes
Prices of foreclosed homes have taken such a beating that investors are jumping in and bidding up prices. Investors who win bids are often cash buyers who do not need to go through the appraisal process to get a loan. Traditional buyers who are looking for a home to reside are at a disadvantage. Jerry Lou Davis, a real-estate agent in California, says the activity in the foreclosed housing market is similar to the housing bubble of yesteryears. Jay Butler, director of the Realty Studies program at Arizona State University, concurs with this view. “This market is about as abnormal as the hypermarket that we came out of a few years ago,” said Butler. Experts say that the bidding wars will impede stabilization of the housing market.
In Phoenix, the median home price, which was $265,000 3 years ago, was $125,000 last month, from a low of $115,000 in April. Real estate agents across the country have been observing price wars in the last couple of months, according to Walter Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors. In states such as Nevada, Arizona, California, and Florida, where home prices are moving to levels well below their peak values, it is not uncommon for sellers to get multiple offers. Jonathan Abbinante, a real estate agent in Las Vegas, says some of his clients are making 3 offers a day on homes they have not seen. “I sell homes right over the Internet,” said Abbinante. “That’s what I did in 2004.”
Is there still hope in the fight against foreclosure?
The Obama administration has been criticized for its $ 75 billion modification program not doing enough to the stem the rise in foreclosures. Some experts believe that the steep learning curve is inevitable given the magnitude of the problem. “Part of it has been understanding how big the problem is,” says economist Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic And Policy Analysis “They’re also getting more experience about what’s going to work and what isn’t.” Some say that there are far too many operational glitches for the program to succeed immediately.
“There seems to be a ramp up and that’s good, but there are still execution issues,” says Andrew Jakabovics a housing expert at the Center for American Progress. “We’re starting to see an impact from the modification program. I don’t think we’re at a comfort point yet.” The Obama administration seems to take criticisms and suggestions for improvement seriously. The administration has implemented an audit mechanism for applications that have been rejected. Government officials recently wrote to industry players asking them to do more for the success of the loan modification program. “I don’t think the administration’s plan has proven to be a magic bullet yet,” says Edward Pinto, a former chief credit officer at Fannie Mae. “We have to work through this; it is a long process.”
TARP official says rescue cost may eventually be $23.7 trillion
Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, says the $700 billion bank-investment program introduced by the Treasury represents a fraction of the total federal funds required to revive the financial system. In a report on the use of TARP funds, Barofsky said: “TARP has evolved into a program of unprecedented scope, scale and complexity.” Barofsky has estimated that the total of rescue funds could amount to $23.7 trillion over time, including $2.3 trillion in programs offered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, $7.4 trillion in TARP and other aid from the Treasury and $7.2 trillion in federal money for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, credit unions, Veterans Affairs and other federal programs. According to the report, 83% of the banks used TARP money for making loans, while 43% used funds to strengthen their capital base and 31% made new investments. Treasury officials disagree with the report findings. “These estimates of potential exposures do not provide a useful framework for evaluating the potential cost of these programs,” said Andrew Williams, Treasury spokesman. “This estimate includes programs at their hypothetical maximum size, and it was never likely that the programs would be maxed out at the same time.”
What are we doing to boost manufacturing?
The manufacturing sector has lost over 2 million jobs since the recession began in September 2007. Manufacturers across sectors find themselves buffeted by low cost imports and rising cost of operations. “We must make a serious commitment to manufacturing and exports. This is a national imperative,” Jeffrey R. Immelt, chairman and chief executive of General Electric, said in a speech last month. President Obama said recently that the “fight for American manufacturing is the fight for America’s future.” The percentage of overall economic activity devoted to manufacturing is 13.9% in the U.S., which lags behind every country except France in this regard. The administration support to manufacturing has so far been ad hoc – such as bailout of companies such as General Motors.
“The administration’s policy is evolving in the right direction,” says Representative Sander Levin, Democrat of Michigan. Many disagree. Experts are questioning if the administration has an explicit strategy to bolster manufacturing sector. Some advocate making research and development tax credit permanent and introducing measures to discourage locating factories abroad. Thea Lee, policy director for the A.F.L.-C.I.O., said: “It is hard to see how you rebuild the middle class without reviving manufacturing.”
Is Wall Street celebrating too soon?
The S&P 500, a broad based stock market index, went past 950 this week – the highest reading in the year so far and the first time above that level since last November. Do investors believe the worst is over for the economy? Some experts believe that herd behavior could be at work even if investors are bearish individually. “I still get a lot of negative feedback from people about the market. There still is a lot of bearish sentiment out there,” said Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist with BTIG. “But that means a lot of people are being forced to play catch-up and chase performance.” O’Rourke says stocks could gain another 20% or so from current levels. Investor sentiment has been bolstered by earnings reports of banks and technology companies.
“We are still in a battle between the economic bulls and the skeptics. Last week, the bulls got the upper hand,” said David Joy, chief market strategist with RiverSource Investments. “That’s encouraging but this market is still jittery. A couple of bad data points could take stocks down even though the evidence is building toward an economic recovery.” Experts are advising investors to be cautious and not get carried away by the recent rally. There still are factors such as inflation which could play spoilsport. “Investors may need to have a well-defined exit strategy if things start to fade,” said Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank.
Now on to our real estate investor education section…
The Future of Real Estate Investments After Cap & Trade
You’ve heard the rhetoric but what are the real details behind the proposed Cap and Trade initiative (fondly called “Cap and Tax” by many economists) and how is it likely to impact short sales or real estate in general? Keep reading to learn the facts behind the hype, hysteria and hoopla.
- Think Higher Price – not Lower. Contrary to popular opinion, greater government intervention tends to drive prices up – not down – especially related to real estate. In fact, research indicates as much as 25 to 40 percent of the cost of new homes in highly regulated areas is directly or indirectly due to government mandates. More mandates means higher prices for future real estate. Higher prices of new homes tends to drive the cost of existing homes up as well. Consider this, in many parts of the nation it used to be possible to purchase 1 acre of land for as little as $500 only a few years ago. Sink a well and septic onto the property and you have an improved acre for less than $5,000. After impact fees were increased to five figures, even the worst property in the county with an existing well and septic were worth at least $10,000 due to the lack of having to pay impact fees alone. Likewise, while existing homes may require upgrades to meet new energy efficiency standards, so will new homes. The result is higher prices all around – not lower.
- Commute Credits. Properties located in “low commute” areas are likely to become more popular especially as carbon credits and energy consumption begins to take hold in earnest. Whenever possible purchase properties located within an easy commute to shopping, major areas of employment or other desirable commutes.
- Get to Know an Inspector Near You. If Washington DC has their way, every home will require an inspection prior to selling, that means long waits and delays as well as “red tape” should you be unfortunate enough to get on the wrong side of a bad inspector. Make friends and get to know an inspector near you – the future of your timely transactions may depend upon it should current legislation become law.
- Taxes. Get serious about tax deductions because Uncle Sam is getting serious about collecting them. Not only are the Bush tax deductions due to expire, but additional taxes added to the existing Capital Gains are proposed under the current proposal. While an additional 1-2 percent may not sound like a lot, combined with energy efficiency modifications and other changes it will continue to drive up the cost of housing well into the foreseeable future.
- California Housing Standards….get to know them. That is the foundation for how all future homes will be built and/or modified. Unsure where to begin? Visit the California Department of Housing and Community Development at http://www.hcd.ca.gov/codes/shl/ or review the actual building standards at http://www.bsc.ca.gov/default.htm.
See you at the top!
Chris McLaughlin
http://www.shortsalesriches.com
Copyright Loss Mitigation Institute LLC 2009.
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A large number of homeowners across the country are confronting defects in their homes largely on account of construction faults. As the housing sector expanded aggressively in the last couple of decades, the industry has been besieged with a shortage of skilled manpower and quality construction materials. In addition, tardiness of municipalities in inspecting and certifying homes contributed to the problem. Criterium Engineers, a building-inspection firm, has estimated that 17% of newly built houses in 2006 had at least two significant defects, up from 15% in 2003. Paul Amirata, vice president of claims at Axa Insurance, says construction-defect claims being filed are “pretty severe in terms of the total damage alleged.” The drop in real-estate values has exacerbated the problem. Those with faulty houses find that repairs often cost more than the value of the home. In addition, many do not have the equity to leverage in order to pay for repairs. In case of house defects what is the remedy for homeowners? The National Association of Home builders believes litigation is an inefficient way of resolving issue related to construction defects and says homebuyers should consider using “alternative dispute resolution including mandatory, binding arbitration in consumer contracts.”
According to a report released by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision, the number of loan modifications rose in the first quarter of this year. The report also said there was an increase in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures in the first quarter. John Dugan, Comptroller of the Currency, said: “While I’m very concerned about the rise in delinquent mortgages and foreclosure actions, the shift in emphasis by servicers to more sustainable, payment-reducing modifications is a positive step that should show significant benefits in the coming months.” Servicers carried out 185,156 loan modifications in the first quarter; this is a rise of 55% from the previous quarter. Seriously delinquent mortgages – loans that are 60 days or more past due – rose 9% from the previous quarter. Delinquencies in prime loans increased by over 20% from the previous quarter and foreclosures stood at 2.5% of all serviced loans. Despite the bad news, analysts believe the loan modification program introduced by the Obama administration is gaining traction and will benefit a large number of homeowners in the coming months.
The Conference Board (TCB), an industry group, said consumer confidence dropped in June after rising in May. TCB’s index of consumer attitudes declined to 49.3 in June from a reading of 54.8 in May. The Present Situation Index, which measures overall consumer sentiments toward the present economic situation, dropped from 29.7 in May to 25.8 in June. Millan Mulraine, economics strategist with TD Securities, said: “On balance, this was a disappointing report as it has clearly bucked the trend of improving consumer sentiments in the past few months. Moreover, with the details of the report uniformly weak, we are left with the impression that this was an outright slump in consumer confidence.” Among the consumers who participated in the survey conducted to gather information on consumer sentiment in the current quarter, 4.6% said they had plans to buy an automobile within 6 months; in contrast to 5.7% in the previous quarter. Those with plans of buying a home dropped from 2.8% to 2.7% while those planning to buy a major appliance dropped to 26.5% from 29.2%. Inflation rate expectations for 12 months rose to 5.9% from 5.6% in May. “Consumers are making a more somber and accurate assessment of the economy and their own financial position,” said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia. “Consumers may be thinking less bad is not good enough.”
New York private-equity firm Quadrangle Group has offered a three-year sublease for 10,000 square feet at $85 a square foot, a discount of 32% to the 2006 rate. Taconic Capital Advisors has offered 50,000 square feet near Central Park at $80 a square foot, denoting a 22% discount to the rate being paid by Taconic. Hedge funds and other firms, when they sublet space, are likely to lose millions of dollars over the life of the building lease. Buyers looking for space are getting great bargains. Brian Rance, U.S. managing partner of law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, says, “It’s a complete buyer’s market.”
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), sale of existing-homes rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units in May, denoting a rise of 2.4% over the April figure. This is the second straight month of increase in sale of existing-homes, due to a plentiful supply of homes and availability of attractive mortgage rates. According to NAR, this is the first back-to-back rise since August and September 2005. “While sales may not have yet reached an absolute bottom, clearly a bottoming process is underway,” said Wachovia, a financial services firm. The total number of existing-homes available, at the end of May, stood at 3.80 million units; this represents a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in April, according to NAR. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expressed concerns about “faulty valuations that keep buyers from getting a loan.” Yun said: “Lenders are using appraisers who may not be familiar with a neighborhood, or who compare traditional homes with distressed and discounted sales. In the past month, stories of appraisal problems have been snowballing from across the country with many contracts falling through at the last moment.” Yun warned of a “delay in housing market recovery” and a “further rise in foreclosures” if the appraisal problems are not quickly corrected.” Regionally, existing-home sales in May rose 3.9% in the Northeast, 9% in the Midwest, remained unchanged in the South, and dropped 0.95% in the West.
